Lock Trout Down

[Blarg]

36 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

It's not your money. If Arte is willing to pay it he will. Doesn't matter whether you think he's worth it or not.

I never made that statement. Certainly Moreno can pen another Albertross contract if he wants to. 

It's just a stupid premise that Trout won't regress dramatically after age 35 because 0.0002% managed to play at a high level at age 38-40 and Trout will be just like them. So spread that mortgage out over more years because you can't afford the asking price on a reasonable time frame.

It's poor economics.

[Blarg]

40 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Yeah that was pretty neat Blarg. 

"Fuck him"

-Blarg referring to Mike Trout in 2018.

Blarg referring to dochalos projection for Trout's contract extension. What Mike chooses to do hasn't been determined. 

[Docwaukee]

Albert got paid 250m for 10 years starting with his age 32-41 season 6 years ago.  An aav of 25m.    

Cabrera got 248m for 8 years starting at age 33-40.  An aav of 31m.  Started two years ago.  

Greinke got 6/206.5 for age 32-37.  AAV of 34.5m 

David Price 7/217m for age 30.  AAV 31m.  

Scherzer actually has 3 seasons of 42.1m coming for 2019-2021 for age 34-36.  

All of these are contracts unlikely to be worth the money.  Three are pitchers so shorter deals.  Longer deals for overweight 1bmen with leg issues.  

I gave you examples of inner circle HOFers ie Trout's peers.  Small sample, but the better the player, the greater likelihood of sustained value over a longer period.   But just for kicks, a few numbers.  Of the 1461 qualified seasons for players age 34 and older, 326 of them put up a WAR of 4.0 or more.  About 22.3%.  No one is debating about whether Trout will regress.  It's up to our talent evaluators to determine whether they think Trout will be worth what he's paid.  His non-field value comes into play as well of course.  He's a huge draw and will be for some time.  

Precedent set for Trout AAV of 34.1m for age 26-28.  That AAV isn't going down for age 29-40.   12 years at 37 per is 444 mil.  

I'm not sure why you are angry that he's worth those dollars.  It's funny that you think I'm following some media narrative.  I'm just doing the math.  The money is there in the game.  If you think he's not worth the highest contract in baseball/sport history then I don't know what to say.  If the highest paid player makes 34 mil in 2018, assuming an avg inflation rate of 3%, the highest paid player in 2033 will make 53m. 

the CBT threshold has gone from 117m is 2003 to 210m in 2021.  The rate of rise has slowed down the last few years, but it's still gone up 32m for 2011 to 2021.  Say it goes up another 35m over the next 10 years to 245m, that would make Trout's salary of 37m about 15% of the CBT threshold.   Albert's 30m is 14.3% of the 2021 CBT.  

We may up with a difference of opinion as to whether that's worth it to any particular team.  I think it is for Trout.  You likely don't.  But the numbers are real.  

 

[Rico]

Put a ring on him.

[Fresh Catch Trout]

We've made the case for keeping him. A few have expressed concerns. 

Now if you're asked today to bet your life on it.... what do you THINK will end up happening?

My gut feeling on this is he's going to somewhat shock the world and quietly stay.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 1/6/2018 at 4:36 PM, Blarg said:

I never made that statement. Certainly Moreno can pen another Albertross contract if he wants to. 

It's just a stupid premise that Trout won't regress dramatically after age 35 because 0.0002% managed to play at a high level at age 38-40 and Trout will be just like them. So spread that mortgage out over more years because you can't afford the asking price on a reasonable time frame.

It's poor economics.

The best of the best play well after 35, Pujols excepted.

Stan Musial @41 .330/.416/.508/.924/ 3.6 WAR
Willie Mays @40 .271/.425/.482/.907/  6.3 WAR
Ted Williams @41 .316/.451/.645/1.096/ 3.0 WAR
Hank Aaron @39 .301/.402/.643/1.045/ 4.7 WAR
Babe Ruth @39 .288/.448/.537/.985/ 5.1 WAR
Ty Cobb @40 .357/.440/.482/.921/ 4.4 WAR
Roberto Clemente @37 .312/.356/.479/.835/ 4.8 WAR
Yogi Berra @38 .293/.360/.497/.856/ 1.3 WAR
Pete Rose @40 .325/.391/.390/.781/ 1.7 WAR
David Ortiz @40 .315/.401/.620/1.021 5.1 WAR

I'm sure there are plenty of others but those are the ones I could pull of the top of my head. Not everyone ages like Pujols or snorts coke like Hamilton.

 

[totdprods]

I'll go with an extension the year before he hits FA, for 7/$250m, maybe with a player or mutual option or two at the end or an opt-out a few years in tacked on somewhere to give Mike a little more flexibility in exchange for the pre-FA deal and relative 'team-friendliness' of the deal.

Comes out to roughly $35m annually like his current salary and through his age 35 season. If he's still productive at that time, he'll still have opportunity to make some money. He gets paid fairly without totally breaking the Angels bank so they can continue to be competitive, which is part of why Mike signs here. 

[Mark68]

The best way to lock Trout down is the same way you lock that significant other down...

 

If you like it, put a ring on it.

[Dtwncbad]

We talk about the best of the best and how they do historically at older ages.

One detail I see that I don't see anyone else bringing up is the contemporary hitting approach versus the older traditional hitting approach.

Baseball is different now.  The new way is very aggressive, fully accepting strikeouts in exchange for production.

We didn't have elite players striking out 150 or more times a year back in the day.  Their approach didn't allow it.

How will the contemporary approach age?  Will it be different?

I dont have the answers but I can't ignore the possibility that it will be different.

I think it is probably not a good idea to automatically rely on historicals to project what will happen with today's players when the overall approach (generally speaking) is very different.