$400 million for Bryce Harper? 'Don't sell me short,' he says

[Angelsjunky]

I doubt Harper's ego would let him play on the same team with Trout. But it is fun to think about, and would be one of the greatest two-player tandems in major league history.

@totdprods, I love Trout's start so far this year, but chances are he eventually settles down in the .300-.320/.410-.440/.550-.600 range. I'd love to see him hit .330+/.450+/.600+, but am not expecting it.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, heRo said:

Trout seems nice enough but what makes you think he won't chase the money?  Anyone in his situation would.  He's on the opposite side of the country from his and his soon to be wife's families,playing for a team that stinks.  You are daydreaming if you think he'll stay here for less money "just because".

He may value things like stability and playing for one team his entire career like his favorite player growing up. 

[ettin]

5 minutes ago, heRo said:

Trout seems nice enough but what makes you think he won't chase the money?  Anyone in his situation would.  He's on the opposite side of the country from his and his soon to be wife's families,playing for a team that stinks.  You are daydreaming if you think he'll stay here for less money "just because".

Because not everything is about money. If one thing is clear, Trout's mother and father raised him well. Not everything hinges on getting the extra buck. Case in point Jered Weaver could have gotten about $20M more if he had gone to free agency but he chose location/comfort/family over chasing the extra money that he almost certainly would have received.

[ettin]

10 minutes ago, heRo said:

Top players are NOT getting anywhere near 9MM per WAR.  5+WAR players get greatly reduced rates per WAR.   The Stanton contract is a one off anomaly.

I recommend you go do a Google search and pull up any of many articles on $/WAR. You'll find references to this past season being worth about $8M-$9M per WAR on average for free agent contracts. I'm not going to go dig up all of the work and citations I have done on this subject either so feel free to browse in the Angelswin.com archives for articles I've written previously that contain the citations. Remember that Stanton was NOT a free agent signing he was an extension signing which are usually much less (case in point Mike Trout) than the player is actually worth. We are talking free agency prices here there is a difference.

[ettin]

2 minutes ago, heRo said:

Exactly. Trout's family is currently on the other side of the country.  I don't think he wants to stay, but it's a moot point since we can't possibly afford him.

Fully 100% disagree with you about our ability to afford him. I feel like everyone is trying to find an excuse for him not to stay which I just think is being awfully negative. Sure there are reasons he might want to go I'm not disagreeing with that but there are a lot of reasons to stay. It is not a foregone conclusion by any measure that he takes off for what some of you think are brighter lights.

[Troll Daddy]

My fear is that he goes elsewhere and we end up with bubkus. 

I'd wait until Harper signs and then make him your best offer ... if he doesn't sign, then entertain trade offers from teams he would sign off on. 

[tdawg87]

29 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I doubt Harper's ego would let him play on the same team with Trout. But it is fun to think about, and would be one of the greatest two-player tandems in major league history.

@totdprods, I love Trout's start so far this year, but chances are he eventually settles down in the .300-.320/.410-.440/.550-.600 range. I'd love to see him hit .330+/.450+/.600+, but am not expecting it.

You may be right, but he currently has the lowest K rate of his career, and his BABIP is .372, which is high by not unsustainable by his standards. 

It's entirely possible that Trout is having the best year of his career by far.

[totdprods]

47 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I doubt Harper's ego would let him play on the same team with Trout. But it is fun to think about, and would be one of the greatest two-player tandems in major league history.

@totdprods, I love Trout's start so far this year, but chances are he eventually settles down in the .300-.320/.410-.440/.550-.600 range. I'd love to see him hit .330+/.450+/.600+, but am not expecting it.

He might, he might not. How often have we speculated what Trout could look like in his peak? How about national writers? How about Fangraphs? They came up with a .343/.461/.633 line, with 43 homers. These numbers have been floated as possible before.

He's turning 25, just entering his prime. He's an established vet now. Not totally unrealistic he steps it up into that range for a couple of seasons. 

[tdawg87]

8 minutes ago, heRo said:

This is a reasonable analysis, except for one little detail. By the time Harper potentially signs a long term contract we may have less than 2 years of Trout left.  The best move is to trade him NOW.

Jesus christ. 

[m0nkey]

Why is every Bryce Harper thread a trout vs. Harper thread?

[nikkachez]

Won't have to have a debate when they're hitting 2 and 3 for the Angels.

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, heRo said:

Exactly. Trout's family is currently on the other side of the country.  I don't think he wants to stay, but it's a moot point since we can't possibly afford him.

Of course they can afford him.  The TV contract of the Angels guarantees they can afford him alone.  

[ettin]

33 minutes ago, heRo said:

You claim that 1 WAR is worth 9MM, which would imply Trout is worth 80-90MM per year.  But then you suggest he'd take 500MM for 13 years, which is a mere 38MM or so per year.  Which is it?  An 80MM dollar player is going to settle for 38MM a year, to stay on a losing team, on the opposite side of the country from his family and soon to be inlaws?  Right......

Yes and yes.

Trout is potentially worth that using a basic $/WAR system under the current average value of $8M-9M. Trout is worth a lot more than $500M but let's be honest a MLB team is not going to pay more than they have too and giving Trout $500M would break the mold of any contract ever given before even though it doesn't actually pay him what he is worth simply because he is a totally unique player not unlike A-Rod when he signed his 2nd mega-deal. That contract set the bar for all other contracts that followed. However no team was going to pay him more even if their metrics (and those metrics were not nearly as prevalent as they are now) told them he was worth it.

There is something I am not getting through to you. The $8M-9M is an AVERAGE. Mike Trout is 5-7 standard deviations outside the bell curve. He breaks the bell curve even. But any MLB team, even the Dodgers and Yankees will not pay him $800M. They will take the highest free agent contract ever awarded and build a financial model that justifies paying him 20%, 30%, 40% (whatever they decide) more than the highest contract ever delivered. It would be highly unlikely that they'd go higher that about $500M simply because it would raise the bar too high for all players in terms of ask price on contracts. Notice how the best players have over the last handful of years have slowly slipped in to the $200M range and only one, Stanton, has crested $300M. Harper will break $400M. Trout could break $500M.

You also seem to place a lot of emphasis on his family. I think you are placing too much but I agree that he really loves them and that could definitely be a factor. I'm just saying that money and family don't always drive decisions. Living in California is great for the most part (depends on where you live of course). Trout has a place in Newport Beach so I think you'll be hard pressed to admit that it isn't a draw to live here. None of us are in his head or friends with him so unless we hear from a reliable source that Mike Trout is dying to go back to New Jersey or he's dying to play for Philly or New York, or he misses his family too much or his wife/fiancee likes Texas or he thinks that the Angels will never compete I think we should run under the assumption that it is a coin flip. I am sure that Eppler has communicated to Trout and Trout's agent what their long term rebuilding plan consists of and how they want to build a winning team around Mike, the team will leave nothing to chance in trying to retain him. I'm betting he stays.

[Angelsjunky]

38 minutes ago, totdprods said:

He might, he might not. How often have we speculated what Trout could look like in his peak? How about national writers? How about Fangraphs? They came up with a .343/.461/.633 line, with 43 homers. These numbers have been floated as possible before.

He's turning 25, just entering his prime. He's an established vet now. Not totally unrealistic he steps it up into that range for a couple of seasons. 

I think those numbers are possible, although probably with a slightly lower BA - I think his plausible upside BA is more like .330, unless he reduces his Ks to under 100 a year.

The question has been whether Trout has another performance spike in him as he enters traditional prime years, or whether he's a guy reaches his prime early on and just plateaus from there on, with slight fluctuations and changes and adjustments in his game. The assumption by many, including myself, was the latter. But after his start this year, I'm now vaguely hopeful that he is taking another step forward, but if he is doing so, I think it is more reasonable to assume .320ish BA with a 1.000ish OBP and 180ish wRC+, rather than .340ish/1.100ish/200ish.

 

[Troll Daddy]

21 minutes ago, ettin said:

Yes and yes.

Trout is potentially worth that using a basic $/WAR system under the current average value of $8M-9M. Trout is worth a lot more than $500M but let's be honest a MLB team is not going to pay more than they have too and giving Trout $500M would break the mold of any contract ever given before even though it doesn't actually pay him what he is worth simply because he is a totally unique player not unlike A-Rod when he signed his 2nd mega-deal. That contract set the bar for all other contracts that followed. However no team was going to pay him more even if their metrics (and those metrics were not nearly as prevalent as they are now) told them he was worth it.

There is something I am not getting through to you. The $8M-9M is an AVERAGE. Mike Trout is 5-7 standard deviations outside the bell curve. He breaks the bell curve even. But any MLB team, even the Dodgers and Yankees will not pay him $800M. They will take the highest free agent contract ever awarded and build a financial model that justifies paying him 20%, 30%, 40% (whatever they decide) more than the highest contract ever delivered. It would be highly unlikely that they'd go higher that about $500M simply because it would raise the bar too high for all players in terms of ask price on contracts. Notice how the best players have over the last handful of years have slowly slipped in to the $200M range and only one, Stanton, has crested $300M. Harper will break $400M. Trout could break $500M.

You also seem to place a lot of emphasis on his family. I think you are placing too much but I agree that he really loves them and that could definitely be a factor. I'm just saying that money and family don't always drive decisions. Living in California is great for the most part (depends on where you live of course). Trout has a place in Newport Beach so I think you'll be hard pressed to admit that it isn't a draw to live here. None of us are in his head or friends with him so unless we hear from a reliable source that Mike Trout is dying to go back to New Jersey or he's dying to play for Philly or New York, or he misses his family too much or his wife/fiancee likes Texas or he thinks that the Angels will never compete I think we should run under the assumption that it is a coin flip. I am sure that Eppler has communicated to Trout and Trout's agent what their long term rebuilding plan consists of and how they want to build a winning team around Mike, the team will leave nothing to chance in trying to retain him. I'm betting he stays.

Your bet might come through ... although, I see 10/400M being a max offer for a extension. The sooner the better. 

$400M extension would be stupid to walk away from when he's still getting around $105M for 2018-2020.

That my friend is a cool half billion dollars guaranteed!

Personally, I don't think any player is worth much but wtf

 

[Fresh Catch Trout]

On 5/13/2017 at 4:46 PM, Angelsjunky said:

Chuck, as someone who voted for Trump this may be hard for you to understand, but I'm actually more interested in the truth than in being right. The truth is that Harper is great - and as great as Trout, at least at his best. What we don't know is if he can be that great consistently.

 

 

christ, you voted for a clinton and talk truth? the left is so backwards

[Tank]

4 hours ago, heRo said:

No one player is worth that much.  You'd be way better off hedging your bets with two 200MM players.

welcome to the board, buzzie!

[Angelsjunky]

55 minutes ago, Fresh Catch Trout said:

christ, you voted for a clinton and talk truth? the left is so backwards

I didn't vote for Clinton or Trump. But let's not sully this perfectly good baseball thread with politics.

[CaliAngel]

I'll be honest I don't like Harper because everything about him screams douchenozzle on a level that goes beyond Barry Bonds.

But he is surprising me so far this season, he is hitting well and actually performing up to his expectations, which I did not expect. I thought he might fall off, but there is always the possibility of a slump which brings him back down to the player I expect from him. That's something Trout has so far always been able to avoid, which has made him a much more elite player than Harper IMO. Plus Trouts attitude just brings me so much joy to watch him, even when he gets robbed on offense, he just smiles and brushes it off. I know he's competitive too but his attitude and approach is what I think sets him apart.

I just wonder if Harper can hold up the consistency through the season, and am interested to see what his numbers will be at the end of the season.

If he keeps it up I can see him eventually being on the Yankees.

[NorCal Halo]

I think Harper is better at running into walls, and Trout is better at jumping over them.

[Adam]

Harper is the best I've seen at intentionally losing his helmet when taking an extra base. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Adam said:

Harper is the best I've seen at intentionally losing his helmet when taking an extra base. 

He's got "show hair", Baby....     I gotta admit, I lol everything he cocks his head backwards to force it off then whips his hair around after he's come to a stop...

He's got a bit of that A-Rod poser thing going on -- legit super star, but he likes to play up for the cameras like A-Rod used to do.   With A-Rod it was always a wince and a shrug like he had just banged himself up diving/sliding etc etc...   You could set your watch by it.

[ABC]

20 hours ago, Stradling said:

Of course they can afford him.  The TV contract of the Angels guarantees they can afford him alone.  

Not only self-appointed  Angels spokesperson, now also Angels CFO/GM.

[Ohtaniland]

14 minutes ago, #CF8 said:

Not only self-appointed  Angels spokesperson, now also Angels CFO/GM.

 

[disarcina]

Harper is actually ripping the ball right now and playing pretty well in the field,

he's on the way to MVP numbers if he keeps up his current pace.

in recent years, the constant Trout/ Harper comparisons got old -- Trout's numbers and performance/ stats were so over the top, Harper was barely visible in Trout's rear view mirror.......and then Harper had a real sub-par stat season in 2016.

Harper is making up for that right now.......