Buyers or sellers?

[JustATroutFan]

Still too soon to day. If the Angels starting rotation can improve their performance, the Angels might be in the Wild Card hunt. Don't see them catching the Astros for the AL West division. If the Angels are sitll in the WC race by July, I think they should be buyers. Having Trout gives them a chance to win every game.

[arch stanton]

Is anybody buying or selling right now? Or would we just be dealing with ourselves?

[California Cajun]

5 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

09

Angels swept the Red Sox then lost to the Yankees 4 games to 1.

[Blarg]

The Angels lost this last series to the Astros, the team with the best record in baseball, by a total of 3 runs and Trout missed two of those games. Maybe a little patience is in order. 

[Dtwncbad]

Too early to tell?  Not sure Yet?

I'm dumbfounded.  This team has zero chance of contending this year.  Zero.  They are not good enough.  The top half of the rotation is barely equal to the bottom half of other teams rotations.  That cannot be ignored.

This team has got to live in reality and move some bodies to continue the project of building from within.

Any other move at the deadline, or lack of moves, would be a mistake.

[Blarg]

4 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Too early to tell?  Not sure Yet?

I'm dumbfounded.  This team has zero chance of contending this year.  Zero.  They are not good enough.  The top half of the rotation is barely equal to the bottom half of other teams rotations.  That cannot be ignored.

This team has got to live in reality and move some bodies to continue the project of building from within.

Any other move at the deadline, or lack of moves, would be a mistake.

At this time of the season teams generally are neither buyers or sellers unless it is what Eppler is currently doing and that is picking up little know reclamation projects. So what you want to do is force a sale when the market isn't ready which devaluates your assets and increases the cost. Patience is in order.

[Dtwncbad]

I'm talking about at the deadline, not now.  I'm just saying that it is painfully obvious TODAY that this roster isn't good enough to contend and I don't want to pretend otherwise.  That's all.

[Blarg]

The deadline is three months away. Maybe wait another month or two to see what settles into place so the discussion has some teeth.

[Stradling]

The only time I remember a trade early in a season was the Tony Phillips and Jorge Fabergas trade.  

[totdprods]

29 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I'm talking about at the deadline, not now.  I'm just saying that it is painfully obvious TODAY that this roster isn't good enough to contend and I don't want to pretend otherwise.  That's all.

I think there's still plenty of room for this team to improve. We're a .500 team despite having an entire pitching staff on the DL and virtually zero production from LF, 1B, and 2B. For the most part, only a few players are playing above their career norms and a lot should still see some improvement, even with some regression thrown in. The rotation is really where the balance hangs right now, and if the bullpen can maintain rather than go pumpkin.

Performing above career norms: 
Trout: 1.146 OPS (career .969 - he could be taking a legitimate step forward though)
Ramirez: 3.74 ERA, 1.25 WHIP (career 4.84 ERA, 1.39 WHIP)
Parker: 4.50 ERA, 1.29 WHIP (career 3.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP - definitely skewed from one bad outing, but he's definitely outperformed his career norms)
Norris: 3.18 ERA, 1.12 WHIP (career 4.49 ERA, 1.40 WHIP)
Petit: 2.37 ERA, .95 WHIP (career 4.50 ERA, 1.26 WHIP - he's been a little lucky, but still think like Norris he will be a good reliever at this point)

Of these, Ramirez seems likeliest to really take a step back, only because he's been so good. Alvarez could fit here too, but he's only had 11 IP and while his ERA and WHIP look good, the peripherals suggest some luck.

Playing right around what you'd expect:
Maldonado: .704 OPS (career .645 - could make a case that he's been overperforming his norms)
Escobar: .722 OPS (career .736 OPS - dude's been virtually the same player for 300+ games now)
Nolasco: 4.68 ERA, 1.38 WHIP (career 4.53 ERA, 1.38 WHIP - honestly, this is probably a safe bet for what he'll be, but we've seen he can be better)
Chavez: 4.46 ERA, 1.35 WHIP (career 4.54 ERA, 1.38 WHIP - same as above)

All three of these guys are playing to their norms, and have been doing so consistently for awhile, so not too concerned here. 

Players who should see some improvement - obviously, there will always be some outlier seasons, but it's hard to imagine they'll all stay this bad:
Calhoun: .248 BA, .703 OPS (career .265, .760 already showing signs of improving)
Maybin: .212 BA, .599 OPS (career .257, .691 OPS - this position is cursed. He's walking at least, but even a return to career average would help the team a lot)
Espinosa: .147 BA, .486 OPS (career .223, .683 - could certainly be this year's Matt Joyce, but it's still unlikely he will stay this bad)
Pujols: .240 BA, .655 OPS (as an Angel, .265 BA and .793 OPS - first 16 games: .177/.227/.290/.518, last 16 games: .299/.333/.448/.781 some signs of life)
Cron: .233 BA, .544 OPS (career .265, .748 OPS) 
Marte: .169 BA, .576 OPS (career .232, .739 OPS)
Shoemaker: 5.21 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9, 2.1 HR/9 (career 3.87 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9 - he's not this bad. Too many walks and too many HRs)
Revere: .190 BA, .462 OPS (career .283, .658 - probably not as good as we had hoped, probably hurt a bit by inconsistent playing time)

That's a whole lot of everyday players playing well below their expected production. Even with a couple outlier seasons and some regression, this batch is likelier to get better than the others are to get significantly worse. It's actually pretty impressive we've stayed around .500. With Valbuena back and Bailey, Street, Bedrosian not too far away from replacing the Pounders/Guerra/Wright/Valdez flotsam it's just too early to tell. 

Really need the underperformers to step up and really need some stability back in the rotation.
 

[Ohtaniland]

8 minutes ago, Blarg said:

The deadline is three months away. Maybe wait another month or two to see what settles into place so the discussion has some teeth.

I disagree. I think we've seen enough of this team to know its potential. Eppler should put the yard sale sign out and make sure that he puts everything on the table. I wouldn't mind seeing half of this team sent packing for prospects. I certainly don't envision guys like Maybin, Espinosa, Revere, Pennington and some of the other scrap metal getting us into contention. Cut bait and build for the future now. 

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, CALZONE said:

I disagree. I think we've seen enough of this team to know its potential. Eppler should put the yard sale sign out and make sure that he puts everything on the table. I wouldn't mind seeing half of this team sent packing for prospects. I certainly don't envision guys like Maybin, Espinosa, Revere, Pennington and some of the other scrap metal getting us into contention. Cut bait and build for the future now. 

Why didn't you quote the part where blarg also mentions that putting out the yard sale now devalues them?  Because that's even more important.  It's not like these guys are blocking any real talent in the minors.  I mean if you want to bring up Cowart and give him a shot and move or release whomever he takes over for ok.  But there simply is no market.  Also trading guys who are struggling is a bad idea.  

[totdprods]

Another thing to consider is we had an absolutely brutal schedule this first month. We're still in a brutal stretch. We won't have our 3rd day off until May 18th - several of our rivals have already had three or four even. We had 20 games in a row. And for the most part, we've played 'good' teams. And we usually suck in April. 

May and June are a little more favorable, we usually play well those months, and we get some more time off. 

[Ohtaniland]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Why didn't you quote the part where blarg also mentions that putting out the yard sale now devalues them?  Because that's even more important.  It's not like these guys are blocking any real talent in the minors.  I mean if you want to bring up Cowart and give him a shot and move or release whomever he takes over for ok.  But there simply is no market.  Also trading guys who are struggling is a bad idea.  

Trading them while they're healthy also makes a difference. 

[Stradling]

Just now, CALZONE said:

Trading them while they're healthy also makes a difference. 

IT would if they had value because they were playing well.  There's a reason trades don't happen the first week of May.  

[zenmaster]

Sell everyone not having a fish in their name.

[Ohtaniland]

9 minutes ago, zenmaster said:

Sell everyone not having a fish in their name.

His no trade clause will make sure of that. 

[Stradling]

Hey everybody look at me

[Ohtaniland]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Hey everybody look at me

What's wrong with putting some of these guys like Maybin and Pennington on waivers. Are we afraid that the phone won't ring? 

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, CALZONE said:

What's wrong with putting some of these guys like Maybin and Pennington on waivers. Are we afraid that the phone won't ring? 

Pennington sure we could bring up Cowart.  Maybin, what's the point?  He has a league average OBP, runs the bases well, and doesn't hurt you in the field.  He's also a good clubhouse guy, and is coming off a very good season.  Fans lack patience.  

Oh and the look at me comment wasn't for this thread but you having to bring the no trade clause post into this thread.  

[Ohtaniland]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Pennington sure we could bring up Cowart.  Maybin, what's the point?  He has a league average OBP, runs the bases well, and doesn't hurt you in the field.  He's also a good clubhouse guy, and is coming off a very good season.  Fans lack patience.  

Oh and the look at me comment wasn't for this thread but you having to bring the no trade clause post into this thread.  

Well Mike Trout can't be moved without his exclusive permission so he's off the table.

[Stradling]

Yes Claude, we all know.  

[Ohtaniland]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

Why didn't you quote the part where blarg also mentions that putting out the yard sale now devalues them?  Because that's even more important.  It's not like these guys are blocking any real talent in the minors.  I mean if you want to bring up Cowart and give him a shot and move or release whomever he takes over for ok.  But there simply is no market.  Also trading guys who are struggling is a bad idea.  

I'm not trying to be funny but when you say a player will be devalued at this point to me doesn't hold water. Guys like Maybin, Pennington, Revere, Escobar, Valbuena and Espinosa are all well known major league veterans that every GM in baseball know about. There's no magic way to make them more than what they are. They are who they are no matter spring, winter, summer or fall. The GM's know everything about these players.

If you're waiting for the perfect month to move them because they hit .300 for a couple of weeks then you underestimate the knowledge of scouts and GM's throughout the league. They know who sucks and who doesn't suck. They also know who's overcompensated and who's underperforming. They know trends and player personalities. Maybe what you and Blarg are really trying to say or conceal is that none of the guys that I mentioned are worth a sh*t and won't bring anything in return.

[Stradling]

7 minutes ago, CALZONE said:

I'm not trying to be funny but when you say a player will be devalued at this point that doesn't hold water. Guys like Maybin, Pennington, Revere, Escobar, Valbuena and Espinosa are all well known major league veterans that every GM in baseball know about. There's no magic way to make them more than what they are. They are who they are no matter spring, winter, summer or fall. The GM's know everything about these players.

If you're waiting for the perfect month to move them because they hit .300 for a couple of weeks then you underestimate the knowledge of scouts and GM's throughout the league. They know who sucks and who doesn't suck. They also know who's overcompensated and who's underperforming. They know trends and player personalities. Maybe what you and Blarg are really trying to say or conceal is that none of the guys that I mentioned are worth a sh*t and won't bring anything in return.

Well I would rather sell them at the deadline or near the deadline because that is when they have the best value, and at least there is a chance they will be performing better.  I know you understand the concept of selling high or selling low, I am sure you will make some ridiculous post about they can't get much lower, but why in the world would you sell low, when there is absolutely zero reason to, other than some fan wants you to?  Like I sad before, fans by nature are impatient. 

[Ohtaniland]

17 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Well I would rather sell them at the deadline or near the deadline because that's when we will be the most desperate and basically accept anything they can give us in return. 

Fixed

If you can get some team to take a Maybin and his salary right now and hand over a decent prospect you're money ahead. Maybin is not a long term solution but if he's as good as some people claim he should get us a good prospect. Or is that just BS.

Its better to start the repairs sooner than later. This current group might be worse than what Tony Reagins left us six years ago.