Which all-time record is Trout most likely to break?

Oz27 · January 2, 2017

Mike Trout has already broken plenty of records. Even if he is traded before his current contract runs out, he'll leave the Angels with a pile of single-season and career club records. If he plays out the next four years in Anaheim, there is a pretty good chance he will depart with the club record for home runs, runs and WAR. If he sticks around longer than that, he'll break many more (the club lead for stolen bases, RBIs, extra base hits and walks are all in touching distance if he plays seven or eight more seasons in Anaheim). But what about the big ones? Which Major League records is he a legitimate chance of breaking? None of them are easy and he'll need plenty to go right to get to any of them, but there are marks he has a somewhat plausible chance of eclipsing.

Let's start with the ones he is no chance of reaching. He would need to play every game for 17 more seasons to break Pete Rose's games played record. To reach the stolen base record, he'd need to steal 63 bases per year on average over the next 20 seasons. If he plays through his age 40 season, he'd need to average 140 runs batted in per year to catch Hank Aaron's mark. He'd need to walk 130 times per year on average through age 40 to catch Barry Bonds for that record. So all of those, plus a few others I haven't mentioned, are completely unrealistic.

But there are some which could happen, if a lot goes right. Let's assume Mike Trout plays through his age 40 season, or 16 more years, and see what he would have to do to get there.

Position player WAR:

Current record - Babe Ruth, 163.1

Trout - 48.5

Barry Bonds got very close to this one, falling 0.7 wins short (using bWAR). Had his career not been abruptly ended, rightly or wrongly, when he was still really good then he would have breezed past it. But Trout has the potential to seriously threaten the record. Between now and 2032, Trout's age 40 season, he would need to average 7.16 WAR. Every Trout full season has been much better than that and he is coming off a 10.6 WAR campaign, so that total may seem really low. But the chances of him sustaining his current 8-10 WAR per season standard into his late 30s are very low. Within the next seven or so years he'll probably move to a corner outfield spot and by his mid 30s he could be a first baseman or a DH, which makes it much harder to amass giant WAR totals. His baserunning skills will gradually fall off and later on his hitting will too. Having said that, this one isn't impossible. But he will need to stay healthy and maintain his crazy pace for a few more years to have a realistic chance. In all likelihood, he is going to need to average 9 WAR or higher for another eight seasons at least to have any chance of making it happen. If he can do that, he'll be at 120.5 through his age 32 season and would then have to average 5.325 WAR over the following eight years. The latter part of that equation might be too hard though (how many 6 WAR players do you see in their mid 30s?). So it might have to be 9.5 WAR per year for the next eight and 3.575 WAR per season for the eight years after that. To average 9.5 WAR over the next eight seasons he'd really need to put up some 11-12 win campaigns soon, you would think. All in all this one is pretty unlikely, but not impossible.

Home runs:

Current record - Barry Bonds, 762

Trout - 168

How does 'Mike Trout - Home Run King' sound? It probably seems crazy since he is still 594 runs short probably a quarter of the way into his career. Others who have shown early promise (Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols) have ended up getting nowhere close. But 37.125 homers per season over the next 16 years would get Trout there. This one would have seemed much more likely prior to 2016, when he "only" hit 29 homers. But he has shown 40 homer power and is still at an age where guys develop more power. Bonds didn't have a 30 HR season until age 25 and didn't touch 40 until 28. Sure, he likely had an extra advantage which Trout doesn't have, but is it unthinkable that as Trout ages he regularly hits 40 and maybe breaks 50 a couple of times? If we break Trout's remaining career (again assuming 16 more seasons) into half once again, he realistically will need to do the bulk of that lifting in the front half. If he were to average 42 dingers per season over the next eight seasons, that would leave him just 258 (or an average of 32.25) over the final eight to get there. Given we've seen guys continue to show real power to a late age, even as all their other skills decline rapidly (Albert Pujols immediately springs to mind), this one is less absurd than it might seem at first glance.

Total bases:

Current record - Hank Aaron, 6856

Trout - 1670

This is the most unlikely of the ones I have gone into any detail about here. If he breaks this one, it's probably because he really developed as a power hitter and got close to Bonds' home run record. He is a quarter of the way there but, if he plays 16 more seasons, would need to average 324 total bases per season. He has only had more than that three times and only recorded 302 total bases last season. If Barry Bonds, with a career .444 on-base percentage and the all-time HR record didn't get there, then it's hard to imagine who would. Aaron is more than 700 total bases ahead of second on the list, so this record might be close to unbreakable. Pujols once seemed like a decent chance to break this one, but even if he replicated his 2016 total for each of the next five seasons he would fall short.

Runs:

Current record - Rickey Henderson, 2295

Trout - 600

Here we have the one he is the best chance of breaking. If you were building a player to break this record, you would want somebody with speed, power and a high on-base percentage. Trout has all three covered and has a slim, yet realistic, chance of breaking this record. 106 runs per year over the next 16 seasons would get him there and he has averaged 116 over the past five campaigns. If he could keep up that pace for the next eight seasons he would be at 1528 at that point, although would still need 96 per season over the final eight years. Again, he'd need to stay healthy and productive to a late age. Maintaining speed and playing on a good offensive club would really help too. So much needs to go right for him to do this but Trout represents the best chance to break this record since Bonds retired (and fell just 68 runs short).

Strikeouts:

Current record - Reggie Jackson, 2597

Trout - 774

Is it depressing to think that the best player of our generation's strongest chance to break an all-time record is to top Reggie Jackson's strikeout mark? Well, unfortunately, that is the reality. If he stays mostly healthy and plays for another 16 years, it's hard to see how he doesn't end up with this unwanted record. For his career, Trout averages 711 plate appearances per season and strikes out in 22 per cent of those. Moving forward he'll obviously miss time for various reasons (injury, more days off and eventually deteriorating performance), so let's project an average of 575 PAs per year. If he strikes out in 20 per cent of those plate appearances (that was his rate in 2016), he'll finish 17 ahead of Jackson. If he were to continue to strike out at his career rate, he would top Jackson by 201. With a strikeout rate of 22 per cent for the rest of his career, he'd still top Jackson even if he only averaged 525 PAs per year over the next 16 seasons. Of course Trout's strikeout rate is trending in the right direction and it's possible he ends up striking out much less than he does now, but it's also reasonable to then expect an increase in K's later in his career as his skills deteriorate. I certainly wouldn't go as far as to say it's likely Trout breaks this record, but there is a high chance he at least goes close.

So, putting the depressing thoughts about the strikeout mark aside, there are four records relating to mainstream stats which Trout has a semi-realistic chance of breaking. I would guess runs is the most likely, followed by home runs, position player WAR and then total bases. There is also a chance he gets to more than one of them due to overlapping impact. For example, if he breaks the home run record, then I would really like his chances of reaching the runs scored mark too. He probably won't get to any of these and might not even get close. But if Trout remains an everyday player through his age 40 season and can maintain a high level of performance to a late age, without getting hurt too much, then it's entirely possible we see him atop a career statistical leaderboard.

Angelsjunky · January 2, 2017

None. Actually, the one I could see him having a dim chance on is Runs Scored. The problem, though, is that he needs a star hitter behind him. I mean, it is rather amazing he has scored as many as he has without any true star power in the lineup with him (with apologies to Pujols). But even so, 2295 - 600 = 1695 runs to go to tie Rickey. Let's see what he'd need to do...

He's got five seasons left in his 20s. He's averaged 116 runs in his full seasons, so let's say he slows a tad and averages 110 runs for the rest of his 20s. He'll be at 1150 entering his age 30 season, which would be 5th all time through age 29 and 92 runs ahead of Henderson's pace.

Let's say he continues playing well for the first half of his 30s, averaging 100 runs. That brings him to 1650 entering age 35, still 5th and ahead of Henderson by 64 runs. Let say he slows a bit more but remains very good for the rest of his 30s, averaging 90 runs to bring him up to 2100 entering his age 40 season. That would make him 2nd all-time (behind Ruth) through age 39, and still 86 runs ahead of Rickey. He would then need to score 196 runs in his 40s - and thus probably play through age 42 or 43 - to pass Rickey.

The hardest part about all of this is remaining healthy enough to maintain those averages of 110/100/90 over the next three five-year spans, and then of course be able to be good enough in his 40s to score another 200ish runs. Just one injury plagued year puts him majorly off pace, especially early on in his prime.

As for the others...HR? No way. To break that HR record you need to pile up 40-50+ HR seasons and I'm guessing he only surpasses the 40 HR mark once or twice more in his career, certainly not 50.

Strikeouts is, as you say, depressingly possible. He'd only need 14 more seasons at 130+ to pass Jackson.

By the way, I think Fangraphs did an article within the last year about what it would take to get Trout the WAR record. To me his true talent peak level is 9 WAR; maybe we see him pass 10 once or twice more, or maybe not. But it is crazy to think that to catch Ruth/Bonds, Trout needs to have about the entire career of Mantle or Gehrig ahead of him.

arch stanton · January 2, 2017

The great thing about Trout is that he could be mentioned for all of those records. He's built his reputation on doing everything.

His best bet for breaking any records if he remains an Angel would come if Arte gets him a new hitter-friendly park to play in.

I think someone else will pass Reggie before Trout gets there or someone like Bryant will give him a run for his money.

Docwaukee · January 2, 2017

to get Trout to age 40, he's got 15 seasons.

He would need to avg 7.64 WAR to tie Ruth per BR.

Per fangraphs (yes, WAR is a little different, but's its easier to calc the cumulative WAR by age)

Bonds had 54.9 WAR from age 35-39 because he was on roids and didn't follow the normal aging curve.

Ruth had 41.9 WAR

The remainder of the top 20 had 17.5 to 36.0 WAR.

Mantle destroyed himself and accumulated 19.5 WAR from age 31-36. He was actually 3rd through age 30. With Cobb and Hornsby ahead of him. Ruth was 5th.

I think it's fair to give Trout his current pace through age 29. So 46.2. (0.5 less which is what he had during his cup o coffee at age 19).

So that's 92.9.

Another 27.1 for his age 35 season through the end of his career. That's a nice even 120. So he'll need 43.1 from age 30-34. Or an average of 8.6. Maybe. It's certainly possible. Especially if he can get more than the 27.1 I'm giving him late in his career.

So that begs the question. How is Trout going to age?

Trout is probably still one of the top 5 fastest players in baseball. And he also strikes out a ton relative to others we are comparing him to. So it's hard to imagine his .360 BABIP is going to sustain itself as he ages. His bb rate though is on par with the inner circle guys.

It's also hard to assume that he isn't going to evolve. I think it's entirely possible that he becomes a better hitter and makes more contact for the next 7 years or so where his bb/k rate is actually better than 1/1.

Here's an interesting Mike Trout stat:

ops with 2 strikes the last 4 years

2013 - .676

2014 - .729

2015 - .746

2016 - .784

and his babip was progressively lower in that situation.

So he's actually evolving as a hitter.

So as his speed diminishes and he isn't able to leg out those infield hits or turn those bloop singles into doubles, he'll offset that with being a better hitter. ie his BABIP will go down, but his avg will stay the same. I think we'll see him K fewer than a 100 times for a stretch.

Anyway, as good as he is and as hard as it is to imagine that he could get better, he's going to hit a point for 2-3 years where he's still getting those cheap hits and he's improved as a hitter where he'll give you an 11-12 WAR season or two. Then he'll have a couple of transitional years where he'll 'only' put up 7-8 WAR and people will start to wonder if he's declining. Then he'll evolve again and start making more contact and hit fewer hrs. with a really high obp.

Another thing about his speed. It's not like he's got 60 grade speed that is the impetus for his current success. He'll always have some level of great to really good speed. Him losing a step or two merely makes his fast as opposed to ridiculous.

As far as the runs scored thing, he's actually got a really good chance to break that one. Albert isn't the dynamic hitter that he once was, but both he a Cron and either Maybin or Simmons put the ball in play a ton which offsets some of the lack of truly dynamic capability.

Oz27 · January 2, 2017

I did think about the possibility of someone else breaking the strikeout record, @arch stanton, but it's not as likely as I thought it would be. There is only one active player (Beltran) within 1000 Ks of Jackson and he is obviously no chance of catching up (he is more than 900 behind). Granderson, Beltre, Melvin Upton, Jhonny Peralta and Jayson Werth are all in the top 100 but none will play long enough to get there. The two players who are more advanced in their careers than Trout with any chance of getting there are Miguel Cabrera and Justin Upton. But Cabrera would need to average 132.5 strikeouts per season over his remaining guaranteed years to get there and I just don't see him playing enough in his later years to do that. Upton is still more than 1200 strikeouts away so unless he can reverse his sharp downward trend in overall performance he won't play enough to break it. Trout is the rare blend of really good player who strikes out a lot, which is the combination you need to get to that record.

And @Angelsjunky it's definitely fair to say he is pretty damn unlikely to break any of the records (aside from strikeouts) that I mentioned. But I view each of them as at least a very slim possibility. Runs might be a bit more than that. I could see him becoming more of a power hitter later in his career and really surging up the home run leaderboard, potentially even giving the record a shake if a whole bunch of things went his way.

Oz27 · January 2, 2017

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

to get Trout to age 40, he's got 15 seasons.

I was using the Baseball-Reference age style, so to get to 16 I was including the season in which he'd actually turn 41 in August.

I agree with pretty much all of what you said though. I sometimes wonder if I'm deluded from thinking we'll see some 11-12 WAR seasons from him. After all, they're exceptionally rare. But I could see him sitting at 180 OPS+ for a couple of seasons and that could well be enough to get him there.

Docwaukee · January 2, 2017

33 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

The great thing about Trout is that he could be mentioned for all of those records. He's built his reputation on doing everything.

His best bet for breaking any records if he remains an Angel would come if Arte gets him a new hitter-friendly park to play in.

I think someone else will pass Reggie before Trout gets there or someone like Bryant will give him a run for his money.

I don't need the park to be a band box. What would be nice is if it didn't absolutely punish LHed power. Right now I think that's a decent deterrent in attracting players.

Docwaukee · January 2, 2017

2 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

I was using the Baseball-Reference age style, so to get to 16 I was including the season in which he'd actually turn 41 in August.

I agree with pretty much all of what you said though. I sometimes wonder if I'm deluded from thinking we'll see some 11-12 WAR seasons from him. After all, they're exceptionally rare. But I could see him sitting at 180 OPS+ for a couple of seasons and that could well be enough to get him there.

There are going to be 1, maybe 2 seasons where his BABIP stays as high as it's been and he's gonna hit 40 bombs with an avg of like .340. I hope he's a halo when he does it, because it's gonna go down as one of the truly great seasons of all time. Kind of like Mantle's '56 or Mays '54 in terms of raw numbers which would translate to unfathomable value. And if it is as a halo, I hope the team around him is good enough to make it count.

Angelsjunky · January 2, 2017

I love the idea of 11-12 WAR seasons, but I just don't see it, at least via the Fangraphs version. B-R seems to like his defense better, so maybe he could break the 11 WAR barrier with their formula, but it would have to be in the next few years, probably.

One of the noteworthy qualities of Trout's career thus far is just how consistent he's been. He seems to have lost half a step in terms of foot-speed, but his wRC+ has ranged pretty tightly between 167 and 176, and an even smaller range over the last three years: 167, 172, 171. Given that, it is hard to imagine a big spike--the type of spike that he'd need to get to 11 WAR. Maybe he edges up to around 175-185 in his late 20s, but by then he'll probably lose a bit more in terms of baserunning. But who knows, maybe around 27-28 he'll combine the best of all worlds and get to 11+ WAR.

I see him being a slightly different player in his 30s. Still great, but not quite as dynamic - actually, more like his 2014-15 performance, but with more walks. Maybe in his early 30s he hits .290 with 40 HR and 120 walks, but more in the 8 WAR range due to declined baserunning and defense.

So I see an average of 9 WAR for the next five years, then maybe an average of 7 WAR for the first half of his 30s and 5 WAR for the second half. That would bring him up to around 150, so a bit short, but more in the Willie Mays/Ty Cobb range. Not too bad. Of course that assumes good health, so if we cut out a couple years worth of playing time, we get more to the 130-140ish range, more in the Aaron, Williams, Speaker, Wagner range. Not too shabby.

Here's my final prediction: 141.7 WAR, which would be 5th all-time according to Fangraphs. Of course by then--15 years from now--the formula will be quite different, so who knows.

Oz27 · January 2, 2017

It wouldn't surprise me if Trout in his mid to late 30s is a very different player to what he is now. Slower, bigger, a lot more home runs but still plenty of walks. He could still be extremely valuable in that capacity, especially if he's still able to stick as a corner outfielder at that time. That is part of why I think the home run record isn't quite as absurd as it seems at first thought. Another factor I didn't mention which will impact his final home run total is where he plays. If he leaves Anaheim to go somewhere like New York or Colorado, then obviously that will really help his chances of hitting 700+ dingers. I also agree with AJ about Trout being unlikely to post an 11-12 WAR Fangraphs season. I was using the BR model and I think it's entirely possible with that one. He was close this year and would have done it in 2012 had he been called up a month earlier. It's far from unthinkable with that model.

And AJ, you raise a good point about WAR formula. I've spoken quite a bit about how I think defensive metrics, especially for outfielders, will be way more advanced in a few years compared to what it is now. The work Tom Tango is doing at MLBAM makes me think we're really close to having much more reliable outfield defensive metrics. It's likely that will only apply to the Statcast era (2015 onwards) but that could give Trout a retrospective boost (or drive him down a bit too) if WAR models were adjusted to work with whatever the eventual statistic they come up with is.

arch stanton · January 2, 2017

4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I don't need the park to be a band box. What would be nice is if it didn't absolutely punish LHed power. Right now I think that's a decent deterrent in attracting players.

I meant for that to read more hitter friendly. I'd hate to see them go too far in the other direction but it would be nice to see lefties get a fair shot.

WeatherWonk · January 2, 2017

In this day and age, I would think the sizes of these contracts could limit how many seasons one plays. I mean, you get to maybe age 38, you are at the end of your most recent contract and you've earned 2-4 hundred million. The lure of retiring early, rather than traveling around the country for 6-7 months each year, would be strong for me.

I think the record that Trout could retire with is most dollars earned, over a career, especially if he signs with Boston or NY. Of course that record wont last, with inflation. But he might have the highest amount of all time in inflation-adjusted dollars.

AngelsLakersFan · January 2, 2017

14 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I don't need the park to be a band box. What would be nice is if it didn't absolutely punish LHed power. Right now I think that's a decent deterrent in attracting players.

I kind of like it. We should focus on developing good right handed starting pitching, right handed power hitters and left handed line drive hitters with a lot of defensive value.

If anything I'd like them to double down on it were they to build a new park. Teams tailored to their home park has got to be an exploitable long term market inefficiency.

Ochocinco! · January 3, 2017

Most MvP's?

Lou · January 3, 2017

most pounds gained

mrwicked · January 3, 2017

most home runs by a phillies player.

disarcina · January 3, 2017

Trout if he wanted to - and kept stealing bases -- could probably wind up with the best overall combo of any MLB player.

I'm taking 500 (perhaps 600) lifetime HRS; 400 perhaps 500 SBs, 3,000 hits, and something like 1750 runs scored.

not sure who has the best now -- but I know that most players seem to fall down in one category.

Hank Aaron has the home runs, hits but not the SBs.

Barry Bonds may be the top 'combo' leader now , but I think he may have fallen down in the SB category.

SO I think Trout could wind up not leading in any of these categories but having the best combo total of any MLB player.

that's IF he keeps stealing bases,

Willie Mays was quoted -- after his career was over -- when writers were making a big deal out of 50/50 season type guys -- Mays said :" If we knew you were all going to make a big deal out of it, I would have stolen more bases........." and Willie Mays probably could have added at least 100 SBs in his career if he stole bases when he could rather than just when the game situation called for it.........

ScottT · January 3, 2017

Most 2nd place MVP finishes

Ted Williams - 4

Stan Musial - 4

Mike Trout - 3

disarcina · January 3, 2017

Looking at the top 'combo' guys -- I made a list of the top candidates -- may have left some off the list others would make but you pretty much have to start with the all time HR list with the 3000 hit guys and then look to Stolen Bases and go from there.

Here's a comparison:

Hank Aaron: H - 3771; HR - 755; SB -240; RBI 2297; R - 2174; TBases 6856

Willie Mays H - 3283; HR- 660; SB- 338; RBI-1903; R - 2062; TBases 6066

B. Bonds H- 2935; HR -762; SB - 514; RBI - 1996; R- 2227; TBases 5976

S. Sosa H - 2408; HR- 609; SB - 234; RBI - 1667; R- 1475; TBases 4704

TROUT H- 917; HR - 168; SB - 143; RBI - 497; R- 600 ; TBases 1670 (NOW - 6 seasons total)

TROUT* H- 2746 HR - 504; SB - 611; RBI - 1491; R - 1800 TBases 5050 (18 season extrapolated)

The Trout 'extrapolated' numbers take the first six season totals (which includes the first partial season as a late season call up) and extended those totals out 12 more years.

It is not in any way scientific or mathematically accurate as there is no way to assume Trout will either maintain his yearly totals over his career or even have a few amazing season totals about what we've seen - but by utilizing that first year late call up year as part of the average it makes up for some of that.

The bottom line is -- under any measure - it's going to be tough for Trout in today's MLB to match any of the career marks or even to make a run at Mays/ Aaron on the best combo.

I should probably run the numbers on Babe Ruth and Alex Rodriquez as well but I think both fall short in SB category. Babe Ruth probably takes it for most pitching wins, though !

disarcina · January 3, 2017