When do you predict our farm will move out of the cellar?

[Docwaukee]

10 hours ago, Oz27 said:

You're obviously right in that there is no interest he will decline, everybody does. It's also likely he will decline earlier than others because defense tends to decline earlier than hitting and that's where all of his value comes from. I suppose I worry about his decline because there's evidence suggesting he's declining pretty quickly. From 2013 to 2016 so far, if you standardize his seasons by multiplying them to all be an even total (I have made it 1300 innings) his DRS has gone from 39.4 to 28.6 to 25.4 and this year to 23.6. Even if we rule the 39.4 number an outlier, that's still a far-from-insignificant rate of decline from 2014 to this year. If a hitter we had under contract for four more seasons was declining at that rate we would be pretty damn concerned, right? I agree that defensive metrics are sketchy but when DRS and UZR/150 are showing a very similar thing - a consistent and continued decline - and it is lasting over several seasons, that is a worry. Do I think this is bad enough to the point where Simmons won't be valuable by 2018? Nope, that is extremely unlikely. But I think his performance will continue to drop off and I would worry significantly for 2020. Clearly we're not about to turn around and trade him, if anything we are trying to build a winning team around him and Trout. However, I think what we did was acquire a player who is still very good now, at a time where that isn't that useful for us because the team isn't a contender, and who may not be all that good by the time the team is ready to contend again. I preach about focusing on a window of contention and the Simmons move did exactly the opposite of that. Therefore I think it's legitimate to fear we could do something pretty similar again.

I should qualify all of this by saying that 23.6 DRS in 1300 innings is still seriously elite. But his massive offensive shortcomings means he needs to be seriously elite defensively to be particularly valuable as a major leaguer. He has plateaued at this level offensively, it's unlikely he gets significantly better or worse in the next couple of years. So without that supreme defense he isn't worth all that much. Even now, he's at 1.4 fWAR through 91 games. I thought he would be much better than that this season.

you are rounding pi down to 3.  

what i mean is, you are taking a somewhat imperfect indicator of defensive performance and calling a 10% change per year over the last 3 years or about 17% total, statistically significant.  His first year is truly an outlier, but the remaining years tell me he's leveled off.   Plus, other metrics have him leveling off for the last 3 years as well.  

Also, if you look at the truly elite defenders at SS (which Simmons is), their defensive decline doesn't happen till their mid 30's.  Ozzie, Belanger, Ripken etc. 

The other thing I disagree with is whether we were a legit contender this year.  If we don't lose what essentially amounts to an entire rotation, I think we are.  

Do you think that if we traded Simmons right now we wouldn't be able to get prospect quality equivalent to Newcomb or Ellis?  I think we would easily.  

My biggest issue with the trade was in terms of relative upgrade at SS vs. other positions of need.  But now SS would be a position of need so it's moot.  

 

I've said it before and I will say it again.  This is the off season where we find out whether Arte's previous philosophy is imposed on Eppler.  We call it the 'win now'  philosophy, but I don't think it's quite that. It's more of a 'make sure the fans buy tickets' philosophy.  Now that Arte has his golden goose in Trout, maybe he's backing off of allowing that to dictate the construct of the team.  We'll see if that's true in just a few short months.  If we sign Cashner and trade Jones for a guy about to be 30 with 2 years of club control, then I'll freak out.  What we might see is another Simmons type deal where we move Jones and others for a 27yo pitcher with 4-5 years of control left.  Someone like a Jose Quintana.  Do I want that?  Hell no.  But there is a difference between using ascending potential value for a player who's value is descending vs. that of a player who's value is fairly level.  

An example of the right way to do it is the example of Shelby Miller.  Obtained for 1yr of Jayson Heyward, and then spun for Enciarte and Swanson.  

In the end, Eppler has to know that you aren't going to make up 20+ wins between right now and the beginning of 2017 no matter what you do.  doesn't he?  maybe?

[Angelsjunky]

On 8/24/2016 at 5:33 AM, zenmaster said:

It'd be interesting to see where our farm ranked historically by the so called experts.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/organization-talent-rankings-list/#Lr6fLgC9zJSLesys.97

As someone said up-thread, the Angels farm was very good in the 2003-07 range, peaked around 2005 when they were the BA #1 organization, then started slipping in 2008. They got briefly and slightly better for a couple years but that's only because of one player. So you could say the farm has pretty much sucked from about 2009 on, and been absolutely awful for about three years now.

And yes, 2009 was a great draft, but 2010 was a terrible one. That should have been the draft that re-established the farm as legit, but instead it pushed it into a tailspin.

As for how the farm will be considered going forward, I'm guessing it is still considered the worst next year but knowledgeable analysts will say there are glimmers of hope.

[Oz27]

18 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

you are rounding pi down to 3.  

what i mean is, you are taking a somewhat imperfect indicator of defensive performance and calling a 10% change per year over the last 3 years or about 17% total, statistically significant.  His first year is truly an outlier, but the remaining years tell me he's leveled off.   Plus, other metrics have him leveling off for the last 3 years as well.  

Also, if you look at the truly elite defenders at SS (which Simmons is), their defensive decline doesn't happen till their mid 30's.  Ozzie, Belanger, Ripken etc. 

The other thing I disagree with is whether we were a legit contender this year.  If we don't lose what essentially amounts to an entire rotation, I think we are.  

Do you think that if we traded Simmons right now we wouldn't be able to get prospect quality equivalent to Newcomb or Ellis?  I think we would easily.  

My biggest issue with the trade was in terms of relative upgrade at SS vs. other positions of need.  But now SS would be a position of need so it's moot.  

 

I've said it before and I will say it again.  This is the off season where we find out whether Arte's previous philosophy is imposed on Eppler.  We call it the 'win now'  philosophy, but I don't think it's quite that. It's more of a 'make sure the fans buy tickets' philosophy.  Now that Arte has his golden goose in Trout, maybe he's backing off of allowing that to dictate the construct of the team.  We'll see if that's true in just a few short months.  If we sign Cashner and trade Jones for a guy about to be 30 with 2 years of club control, then I'll freak out.  What we might see is another Simmons type deal where we move Jones and others for a 27yo pitcher with 4-5 years of control left.  Someone like a Jose Quintana.  Do I want that?  Hell no.  But there is a difference between using ascending potential value for a player who's value is descending vs. that of a player who's value is fairly level.  

An example of the right way to do it is the example of Shelby Miller.  Obtained for 1yr of Jayson Heyward, and then spun for Enciarte and Swanson.  

In the end, Eppler has to know that you aren't going to make up 20+ wins between right now and the beginning of 2017 no matter what you do.  doesn't he?  maybe?

I don't agree that it's statistically insignificant but I guess we can agree to disagree on that one. DRS has flaws, clearly, but I believe it's a pretty good picture of a player's defensive value. That decline is far from insignificant. He's still elite, excellent, whatever you want to call it. But he does appear to be declining from his best self. You're also right in pointing out some elite defensive guys didn't decline until later, but there is also no shortage of others who began their decline about this age. Adrian Beltre looked like a generational defensive talent at 3B until 2006, his age 27 season. But beyond that he's been a good to very good defensive player, depending on season, and has generated much of his value offensively (which we can't reasonably expect from Simmons). Omar Vizquel was consistently an exceptional defender until after his age 26 season, beyond which he was consistently good with two excellent seasons mixed in over the next 15 years. It's not like guys at this level fell away and became terrible defenders but this is about the age they dropped off from their best defensive years. It's also interesting to compare that to fielding age curves, such as this old research from Tom Tango - http://www.hardballtimes.com/fielding-aging-curves/

I will point out as well that there are defensive metrics that are pretty harsh on Simmons this season, most notably Baseball Prospectus' fielding runs above average - which has him at just 0.1. Now I don't believe it's that bad for a second and maybe it's a ridiculous outlier, but it worries me a bit. BP has him at just 0.6 WAR overall.

I agree with you about the philosophy stuff and I fear the worst. There are too many indications from ownership and management that we believe we can be really good for me to rest comfortable. Maybe it is just a "get fans in the seats" philosophy and maybe that explains comments like "it's not in our DNA". Either way, I expect at least one of Jones or Thaiss won't be in the Angels system come opening day 2017. I hope I'm wrong but I see us making a move to top up the big league team, probably for a guy with about two years of club control remaining.

[HaloNArizona]

On Wednesday, August 24, 2016 at 8:12 AM, NotMyCat said:

Maybe this will change with Eppler, but the farm has never been sexy enough to rank high.  But it has in the past supplied good talent as needed to the major league team. I see that happening again in a couple of years.

Sorry if someone already answered this...but this team has had a very high ranked farm system in the past.  When Stoneman was GM we had a top five minors with Kotchman, Mathis, McPherson....

[Troll Daddy]

As a fan I'm more concerned with the team on the field. 

Eppler has this crazy idea that he can improve the farm and the team simultaneously.

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

As a fan I'm more concerned with the team on the field. 

Eppler has this crazy idea that he can improve the farm and the team simultaneously.

Well, so long you aren't trading prospects or losing draft picks, if you're signing a couple cheap vets and grabbing young players off waiver claims, you can do both at the same time. 

You just need to be careful not to compromise the farm or block any prospects. 

I think Eppler is steering the ship appropriately. He isn't subtracting really from the farm or the young players, but he also isn't denying the flukiness of baseball where a team can contend out of nowhere under the right circumstances, so he's peppering in cheap vets and young quad-A upside guys in case lightning strikes. 

[Angelsjunky]

13 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

As a fan I'm more concerned with the team on the field. 

Eppler has this crazy idea that he can improve the farm and the team simultaneously.

Seems like a good idea to me. Stoneman had a similar idea and essentially created the most successful period in franchise history.

[Second Base]

I can't comment on other minor league systems because I don't pay enough attention to them.  But I can tell you this for sure.  This is the best the Angels minor league system has looked since Heaney, Tropeano, Newcomb, Ellis, Perez, Bandy and Bedrosian were on our list, and before that the best since Trout was a minor leaguer.

 

We're in better shape now than we've been in a long time. 

[greginpsca]

If this years draft pans out ok, along with a strong draft a year from now should pull us out from being the worst. The Org would have talent up as high as A+. And with all the depth signings that have gone on, should help at AAA. Leaving AA as probably the weakest link for a year.

[Blarg]

@Dochalo you are rounding pi down to 3.  

 

This is probably the best response ever to a long winded post. 

[Matathias]

So, I'm a Ranger Fan who loves to read this board.  You guys are knowledgeable fans engaging discussions.  But, what I can't understand is how you guys think farm systems are built.  The depth of a farm system is not built by drafting.  It hasn't been for a long time.  Good International signings both in quality and quantity is the way to go.  Those guys are just better ball players than we are and can be coached up from a very young age.  Until the Angels or any team gets that it will be very difficult to have a deep, quality system.  

And please don't call me a troll.   I actually enjoy this board and don't ever really comment, save once about how douchy CJ Wilson is.  

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, greginpsca said:

If this years draft pans out ok, along with a strong draft a year from now should pull us out from being the worst. The Org would have talent up as high as A+. And with all the depth signings that have gone on, should help at AAA. Leaving AA as probably the weakest link for a year.

The A+ through AAA will be the last of the Dipoto (Spell check wants to change his name to Divot, which seems appropriate)   draftees working through the system next season. So far not many future cups of coffee in that group but there may be a couple sleepers, Scott would know better on this. 

I am anxious to see where the next draft takes shape in terms of the type of players selected. Win now means college guys sucking up all the high draft picks to put butts on the bench sooner. All high school/JuCo would be more patience than what the parent club is going to have considering what we have in the way of players phasing out in three years. 

 A draft similar to this year's is what I expect,  Eppler going for some high ceiling guys at the bottom and a mix between near ready college and best athlete high school. Sprinkled in will be some off the grid guys that don't get much scouting action in their region, maybe as non drafted pick ups. 

Creative but sensible is what I would like to see. Then watch the farm develop from a wider range of talent,  fewer high floor/low ceiling guys so the team make up isn't so vanilla. 

[Blarg]

7 minutes ago, Matathias said:

So, I'm a Ranger Fan who loves to read this board.  You guys are knowledgeable fans engaging discussions.  But, what I can't understand is how you guys think farm systems are built.  The depth of a farm system is not built by drafting.  It hasn't been for a long time.  Good International signings both in quality and quantity is the way to go.  Those guys are just better ball players than we are and can be coached up from a very young age.  Until the Angels or any team gets that it will be very difficult to have a deep, quality system.  

And please don't call me a troll.   I actually enjoy this board and don't ever really comment, save once about how douchy CJ Wilson is.  

Good post even if there is plenty of room for disagreement. 

Hamilton is a jackals. 

[Inside Pitch]

22 minutes ago, Matathias said:

So, I'm a Ranger Fan who loves to read this board.  You guys are knowledgeable fans engaging discussions.  But, what I can't understand is how you guys think farm systems are built.  The depth of a farm system is not built by drafting.  It hasn't been for a long time.  Good International signings both in quality and quantity is the way to go.  Those guys are just better ball players than we are and can be coached up from a very young age.  Until the Angels or any team gets that it will be very difficult to have a deep, quality system.  

And please don't call me a troll.   I actually enjoy this board and don't ever really comment, save once about how douchy CJ Wilson is.  

Nothing you said was trollish, but I don't really agree with you.   When the Angels were at their best, they spent both in the draft and on international players.  IMO, you have to do both.

[Docwaukee]

If you look at roster makeup, you can see where the players come from.  Here are some general stats from the opening days rosters of 2012

50% are drafted college players

25% are drafted high school players

25% are International FA's 

a couple % from above accounts for undrafted players.  

 

So 75% of the players come from the draft.  

40% of the high school players in the majors were picked in the 1st round

20% of the college players in the majors were picked in the 1st round.  

30% of the college players in the majors were picked in the 11th round or later.  

15% of the high school players in the majors were picked in the 11th round or later.  

for round 11-20, about 15% of the total of drafted players came from those rounds.  18%  of the college guys.  10% of the high school guys

For round 21+, 10% of the players in the majors who were drafted are from here.  13% of the college guys.  5% of the high school guys.  

 

I think this gives us some insight into how and why Dipoto and co drafted as they did.  

BTW, we essentially ignored about 25% of the player pool for several years.  

[Matathias]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

If you look at roster makeup, you can see where the players come from.  Here are some general stats from the opening days rosters of 2012

50% are drafted college players

25% are drafted high school players

25% are International FA's 

a couple % from above accounts for undrafted players.  

 

So 75% of the players come from the draft.  

40% of the high school players in the majors were picked in the 1st round

20% of the college players in the majors were picked in the 1st round.  

30% of the college players in the majors were picked in the 11th round or later.  

15% of the high school players in the majors were picked in the 11th round or later.  

for round 11-20, about 15% of the total of drafted players came from those rounds.  18%  of the college guys.  10% of the high school guys

For round 21+, 10% of the players in the majors who were drafted are from here.  13% of the college guys.  5% of the high school guys.  

 

I think this gives us some insight into how and why Dipoto and co drafted as they did.  

BTW, we essentially ignored about 25% of the player pool for several years.  

Great info. So there's how many players/ rounds drafted per year?  You can't add that many intl players per year per signing rules I don't think.  So how does that correlate with those percentages?  And how does the quality of Latin players compare to drafted players?  Look around at the anecdotal evidence.  I know at least half of the Rangers studs were intl  signings.  

[Inside Pitch]

12 hours ago, Matathias said:

Great info. So there's how many players/ rounds drafted per year?  You can't add that many intl players per year per signing rules I don't think.  So how does that correlate with those percentages?  And how does the quality of Latin players compare to drafted players?  Look around at the anecdotal evidence.  I know at least half of the Rangers studs were intl  signings.  

Technically, a team could sign as many international players as they wanted so long as they stayed below their pool dollars.  

Whatever the breakdown of players and their respective origins might be, team's can't really do what the Rangers did previously.  Texas acted ahead of the changes to the rules and signed as many guys as possible regardless of the dollars -- the Angels did something similar prior to MLB getting rid of the Draft and follow process.   Under the current rules teams are assigned a signing bonus pool based on where they finished the previous year and there are some rather significant penalties assessed for any team that goes over ..

• All overages are taxed at 100 percent.
• Exceed bonus pool by 5 to 10 percent: Team is not allowed to sign a player for more than $500K in the following international signing period.
• Exceed by 10 to 15 percent: Team is not allowed to sign a player for more than $300K in the following international signing period.
• Exceed by more than 15 percent: Team is not allowed to sign a player for more than $300K in the following two international signing periods.

So basically nobody will be repeating what the Rangers and other teams did without locking themselves out of signing the best international players for two years.

Here's a link to the 2016 international pools..  http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/04/mlb-releases-2016-17-international-bonus-pools.html

[HALOS23]

The Padres are going all in this year on International signings...

[ten ocho recon scout]

On 8/26/2016 at 11:25 AM, Matathias said:

So, I'm a Ranger Fan who loves to read this board.  You guys are knowledgeable fans engaging discussions.  But, what I can't understand is how you guys think farm systems are built.  The depth of a farm system is not built by drafting.  It hasn't been for a long time.  Good International signings both in quality and quantity is the way to go.  Those guys are just better ball players than we are and can be coached up from a very young age.  Until the Angels or any team gets that it will be very difficult to have a deep, quality system.  

And please don't call me a troll.   I actually enjoy this board and don't ever really comment, save once about how douchy CJ Wilson is.  

Its not that youre a troll, its just that your name is way, way too similar to mathis.

[Angel Oracle]

 

What date is it, where the Latin America moratorium ends?

[Dick B Back]

On August 27, 2016 at 10:51 PM, ten ocho recon scout said:

Its not that youre a troll, its just that your name is way, way too similar to mathis.

Its cause Mathis has a bunch of free time setting on the bench so why not post on AW.

[oater]

On August 27, 2016 at 10:51 PM, ten ocho recon scout said:

Its not that youre a troll, its just that your name is way, way too similar to mathis.

So THATS why we drafted Matt Thaiss! 

[ten ocho recon scout]

6 hours ago, oater said:

So THATS why we drafted Matt Thaiss! 

Dangit...good call. Kid is doomed.

[Rico]

Eventually Dipoto will ruin the Mariners system just enough for us not be last.

[John Stellman]

Not in my lifetime!