The best news all year...

[Second Base]

It's been a bit of a downer type of year.  But hearing that Richards' stem cell therapy has worked to the point where Tommy John surgery won't be needed and he'll be able to return for 2017 has to be a shot to the arm for this fan base.  We're getting our ace back on the mound for next year.  Throw in Shoemaker and Skaggs throwing the ball well and suddenly we've got ourselves a solid front three.  Who knows, maybe Meyer is healthy and pitches up to his ability and Nolasco pitches as well as he can being at home.  Suddenly we have a formidable rotation again to go along with a suddenly resurgent offense. 

2017 might not be a lost season after all. 

[Docwaukee]

Just now, ScottyA_MWAH said:

It's been a bit of a downer type of year.  But hearing that Richards' stem cell therapy has worked to the point where Tommy John surgery won't be needed and he'll be able to return for 2017 has to be a shot to the arm for this fan base.  We're getting our ace back on the mound for next year.  Throw in Shoemaker and Skaggs throwing the ball well and suddenly we've got ourselves a solid front three.  Who knows, maybe Meyer is healthy and pitches up to his ability and Nolasco pitches as well as he can being at home.  

2017 might now be a lost season after all. 

Too bad we don't have Santiago still.  

[mulwin444]

15 minutes ago, ScottyA_MWAH said:

It's been a bit of a downer type of year.  But hearing that Richards' stem cell therapy has worked to the point where Tommy John surgery won't be needed and he'll be able to return for 2017 has to be a shot to the arm for this fan base.  We're getting our ace back on the mound for next year.  Throw in Shoemaker and Skaggs throwing the ball well and suddenly we've got ourselves a solid front three.  Who knows, maybe Meyer is healthy and pitches up to his ability and Nolasco pitches as well as he can being at home.  Suddenly we have a formidable rotation again to go along with a suddenly resurgent offense. 

2017 might not be a lost season after all. 

Well, technically, they still have stress test the elbow before deciding conclusively but I'll take any good news with Richards I can get

[stormngt]

Hate to be a downer but it is still an uncertainty that he won't need surgery until he actually starts throwing.

[Oz27]

2 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Hate to be a downer but it is still an uncertainty that he won't need surgery until he actually starts throwing.

It's going to be hard to feel really comfortable about it until we actually see him throwing in a major league game. Even then, we'll probably be sh*tting ourselves every time he pitches for awhile. It's clearly very encouraging though. I just really hope we avoid the nightmare scenario where he goes through all this rehab without getting surgery then gets to early 2017 and it becomes obvious that he needs it.

[fan_since79]

As long as he doesn't have a fantastic bullpen session, he should be okay.

Ask Sean Burnett what happened after he had one of those.

 

[Oz27]

6 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

As long as he doesn't have a fantastic bullpen session, he should be okay.

Ask Sean Burnett what happened after he had one of those.

 

On March 22, 2011, Tony Reagins described Kendrys Morales as "day-to-day". So yeah, it pays not to get too excited too early about things like this. It's clearly great news that there is even any hope though.

[tomsred]

The real capper was when Mark Mulder lasted one day in Spring Training.

[tomsred]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

Too bad we don't have Santiago still.  

Why, do we need someone to "stress test" are already weak bullpen arms?

[arch stanton]

A talented player in his prime years is one step closer to avoiding a missed year. It is great news.

[Oz27]

21 minutes ago, Randy Gradishar said:

At the most, Richards adds about 4 wins to the team, right? How is that necessarily the difference between a lost season and a playoff contender? 

Yes, that's true. We need to get at least 20 wins better (maybe more) to win the division and that is incredibly hard. But having Richards avoid TJ would be great for a couple of reasons - firstly we seem to be at least trying to win in the short-term and that will help meet that aim and secondly if he comes back and has a great first half he becomes a really good trade chip for us.

The responsible thing to do with Richards from a planning point-of-view though is to assume he will pitch 0 innings for us in 2017. If he gives us anything more than that, it's a bonus.

[Second Base]

35 minutes ago, Randy Gradishar said:

At the most, Richards adds about 4 wins to the team, right? How is that necessarily the difference between a lost season and a playoff contender? 

I think it just shows that you can't really know what next season will be like, regardless of how grim or hopeful it looks going in. So much depends on the Cowgill types and slight variances in performance from all 40+ guys that contribute to a team during a given year.

WAR is a hard one to pinpoint for pitchers.  Look at it like this.  Let's say just for sake of comparison, Tim Lincecum is Richards replacement.  The difference between Richards and Lincecum across an entire season is likely considerably more than four wins.  Just a guess on my part, but I think it's likely closer to a 10-win difference between 30 starts of Lincecum and 30 starts of Richards.

I think a big reason for the disparity is that a replacement level starter is calculated at what should be a league average starting pitcher (eat least to my knowledge).  Not many teams have a pitcher that can step in at any time and be a solid #3/4 starter like that.  For the most part, a replacement level starter for a team depleted by injuries like the Angels are is a Kyle Kendrick type of pitcher.

So in essence, what I'm saying is that in specific context to the Angels, Richards might be 10 wins better or more than his replacement.  That's a pretty big deal. 

[arch stanton]

Richards himself might be worth 4 wins but he probably gives the bullpen the opportunity to add 4 more wins as well, not to mention avoiding several starts from a likely negative WAR starter. It's a domino effect.

[ScruffytheJanitor]

5 hours ago, ScottyA_MWAH said:

WAR is a hard one to pinpoint for pitchers.  Look at it like this.  Let's say just for sake of comparison, Tim Lincecum is Richards replacement.  The difference between Richards and Lincecum across an entire season is likely considerably more than four wins.  Just a guess on my part, but I think it's likely closer to a 10-win difference between 30 starts of Lincecum and 30 starts of Richards.

I think a big reason for the disparity is that a replacement level starter is calculated at what should be a league average starting pitcher (eat least to my knowledge).  Not many teams have a pitcher that can step in at any time and be a solid #3/4 starter like that.  For the most part, a replacement level starter for a team depleted by injuries like the Angels are is a Kyle Kendrick type of pitcher.

So in essence, what I'm saying is that in specific context to the Angels, Richards might be 10 wins better or more than his replacement.  That's a pretty big deal. 

I'm no Mathologist, but I am pretty sure that is not right. For one, WAR is meant to compare your stats to an average AAA starter. Kyle Kendrick is probably exactly the kind of pitcher this is meant to reflect. 

The main problem, though, is that no player is completely responsible for a "win" in the statistic. So even if Richards would go 7 strong innings while Kyle Kendirck might go 5 and give up a 4 runs, that's doesn't mean Richards is credited with one "WAR". 

[zenmaster]

I guess he finally drank enough water to fully hydrate himself.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

7 hours ago, arch stanton said:

A talented player in his prime years is one step closer to avoiding a missed year. It is great news.

After Tanaka has Stem cell therapy in 2014, went 12-7 with a 3.51 ERA in 2015. So far this year he has a 7-4 record with a 3.46 ERA.

Hopefully that is something Richards can repeat or even improve upon for the Angels next year and beyond.

[ELEVEN]

7 hours ago, Randy Gradishar said:

At the most, Richards adds about 4 wins to the team, right? How is that necessarily the difference between a lost season and a playoff contender? 

I think it just shows that you can't really know what next season will be like, regardless of how grim or hopeful it looks going in. So much depends on the Cowgill types and slight variances in performance from all 40+ guys that contribute to a team during a given year.

So what we really need is more Cowgill?

I have a Fever! 

Time to Cowgill up.

[Jeff Fletcher]

This sort of math, and WAR in general, is dicey because "replacement" means a different thing at the time you are looking for the replacement. 

When Richards got hurt in May and the Angels had no one else, the replacement was Jhoulys Chacin. 

If he has TJ this winter they will be able to spend the whole winter looking for someone, and presumably do better than Chacin. 

Also, the raw number for WAR for pitchers is based on FIP, which I think we should all agree, in this day of batted ball info, is a obsolete stat. 

[tdawg87]

Season potentially not over.

[Make Angels Great Again]

25 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

This sort of math, and WAR in general, is dicey because "replacement" means a different thing at the time you are looking for the replacement. 

When Richards got hurt in May and the Angels had no one else, the replacement was Jhoulys Chacin. 

If he has TJ this winter they will be able to spend the whole winter looking for someone, and presumably do better than Chacin. 

Also, the raw number for WAR for pitchers is based on FIP, which I think we should all agree, in this day of batted ball info, is a obsolete stat. 

 

100% agree, personally I didn't like FIP to begin with since it takes far too many assumptions.

[Chris]

Hopefully he can pitch in Arizona Fall League or Winter Ball and then a full spring training.

Having Richards in 2017 would be Huge!

 

[maximus p]

18 hours ago, stormngt said:

Hate to be a downer but it is still an uncertainty that he won't need surgery until he actually starts throwing.

We gotta be due for some good luck, don't we?

[ScruffytheJanitor]

23 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

This sort of math, and WAR in general, is dicey because "replacement" means a different thing at the time you are looking for the replacement. 

When Richards got hurt in May and the Angels had no one else, the replacement was Jhoulys Chacin. 

If he has TJ this winter they will be able to spend the whole winter looking for someone, and presumably do better than Chacin. 

Also, the raw number for WAR for pitchers is based on FIP, which I think we should all agree, in this day of batted ball info, is a obsolete stat. 

I don't know if I'd call FIP "Obsolete". It's still fairly useful for predicting future performance, and tracks remarkably well with ERA. It's AWFUL at telling you much about a player in-season, but my main problem with it is that you need a good base of innings to really be useful; it doesn't tell us very much about first or second year starters, for instance. It's more of a career-level stat. Additionally, ground ball pitchers are always going to look better than flyball pitchers. It's not the end-all stat, but it's a fairly easy way of seeing if a player just sucks or is just unlucky. 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

On 8/3/2016 at 10:31 PM, ScottyA_MWAH said:

It's been a bit of a downer type of year.  But hearing that Richards' stem cell therapy has worked to the point where Tommy John surgery won't be needed and he'll be able to return for 2017 has to be a shot to the arm for this fan base.  We're getting our ace back on the mound for next year.  Throw in Shoemaker and Skaggs throwing the ball well and suddenly we've got ourselves a solid front three.  Who knows, maybe Meyer is healthy and pitches up to his ability and Nolasco pitches as well as he can being at home.  Suddenly we have a formidable rotation again to go along with a suddenly resurgent offense. 

2017 might not be a lost season after all. 

I'm not going to celebrate too much until I see how he throws. If he has lost 10 MPH off his fastball, it won't matter.

[Dick B Back]

18 hours ago, maximus p said:

We gotta be due for some good luck, don't we?

We blew our luck wad when Street went on the DL.