2016 Trade Deadline Analysis

[arch stanton]

Just now, Oz27 said:

Finding guys to play isn't that hard. It's called replacement level for a reason - it's not that hard to find. You don't need to give up players who actually have value to make that happen. There are three players in DFA limbo now who could come in and pitch useful innings for us, having to sacrifice nothing other than a roster spot and whatever they are contracted to earn. There are guys like that there all the time. There are cheap free agents and minor league deals in the offseason.

And they'll still need to do that. They aren't close to having enough for next season.

[Oz27]

Just now, arch stanton said:

And they'll still need to do that. They aren't close to having enough for next season.

You're right, they're not. But that doesn't mean you give up something like Santiago for rotation filler.

[arch stanton]

2 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

You're right, they're not. But that doesn't mean you give up something like Santiago for rotation filler.

They gave up Santiago to get Meyer. I know you think it's not enough but try putting theory to application and come up with a real scenario that does more.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

I would have preferred player/players with the greatest possible value regardless of their level.  With less of a focus on what is going to help in 2017 or even 2018.  If that talent isn't ready but the team is somehow making a run, you can always use it to acquire other talent.  

From the sound of things though, Eppler really wanted Meyer.  Who probably has more upside than any other player we could have gotten for Hector.  So far, Eppler has done a solid job of finding his guy and getting him.  Even if the deal seems odd at the time.  

Gotta give the guy some credit in that this guy has #2 starter or top flight closer potential.  If it works out, he looks like a genius.  

 

That said, regardless of the players involved, the philosophy behind the deal is what troubles me but I guess I shouldn't be surprised after seeing the Simmons and Escobar deals.  I just think we are pissing in the wind for 2017 and I really hope we don't start giving up farm pieces to take the team to 80% of what would be a contender.  Leaving the other 20% to chance/luck.  I know that a huge chunk component of that is not on Eppler, but Arte.  

Anyway, not what I was hoping for, but the 'what I would do' ship sailed a while ago.   

We're largely sympatico as usual, Doc. That said, I'm not sure why "the philosophy behind the deal" troubles you, or how it means that the Angels are trying to assemble a vague semblance of competition at the expense of future success. You and I agree that 2017, and probably 2018, are lost causes and only secondary towards building for 2019 and beyond. But this trade does just that. In Nolasco the Angels have an innings eater for 2017. If we see 2017 as lost, it doesn't matter if it is Santiago or Nolasco. But in Meyer - while far from a sure thing - Eppler acquired another youngish arm that could fit right in with Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Tropeano, and Shoemaker. Again, given that 2017 is essentially lost, it can be a year in which Meyer establishes himself in a new context, gets a starting job and the major league experience to take a step forward in 2018.

To put it another way, Nolasco is an adequate replacement for 2017--and possibly 2018--and Meyer gives the Angels another potential mid-rotation arm for their next contending team in 2019. It isn't a sexy trade, or one that is obviously good, but I think it is one that will grow on fans in time.

 

[Second Base]

29 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

We're largely sympatico as usual, Doc. That said, I'm not sure why "the philosophy behind the deal" troubles you, or how it means that the Angels are trying to assemble a vague semblance of competition at the expense of future success. You and I agree that 2017, and probably 2018, are lost causes and only secondary towards building for 2019 and beyond. But this trade does just that. In Nolasco the Angels have an innings eater for 2017. If we see 2017 as lost, it doesn't matter if it is Santiago or Nolasco. But in Meyer - while far from a sure thing - Eppler acquired another youngish arm that could fit right in with Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Tropeano, and Shoemaker. Again, given that 2017 is essentially lost, it can be a year in which Meyer establishes himself in a new context, gets a starting job and the major league experience to take a step forward in 2018.

To put it another way, Nolasco is an adequate replacement for 2017--and possibly 2018--and Meyer gives the Angels another potential mid-rotation arm for their next contending team in 2019. It isn't a sexy trade, or one that is obviously good, but I think it is one that will grow on fans in time.

 

Man AJ, you freakin' nailed that one.  Brought up angles I hadn't considered, like 2017 being a year where Meyer can get adjusted without it meaning much, and the difference between Santiago and Nolasco in a losing season being essentially zip. 

[Troll Daddy]

It doesn't take a baseball guru to know that when our pitching gets healthy in 2018/2019 that the team will benefit immensely. 

Meanwhile, you can't just sit still and wait for that to happen. Our offense can already compete with any team in our division. You add another impact bat in the off season and we might have one of the best offenses in baseball. Our bullpen has potential for next season with the emergence of Bedrock, Guerra, and Ramirez. I also expect Street to get his act together next season. 

Now somehow we need a starting rotation. Skaggs, Shoey, Nolasco, Meyers, and Smith is a good start. If Richards and Tropeano go under the knife ... then we'll need to acquire more arms. 

We may not crack .500 still ... but getting young prospects like Meyers and Castillo was a step in the right direction. 

[Second Base]

Well done ettin! 

I'm on the fence as far as the trade goes, but I respect Eppler's justification here. He explained that other teams had offered him safer bets as far as pitching prospects go, but said sometimes you just have to take a shot (paraphrasing). 

And that's what Alex Meyer is, he's Eppler's gamble. We lost our top three young starters, each with mid-top of the rotation ability. We still have Skaggs and Shoe, who slot nicely into the middle of a rotation, but beyond that, nothing really. 

With this trade, we acquired the backend stability we were looking for with Ricky Nolasco and rolled the dice on Meyer making good on all that promise and emerging atop the rotation, which is another need. Maybe it doesn't work out and Meyer is still a backend starter. Or maybe he goes to the bullpen and helps us there.

The more I look at it, the more I realize that Eppler may have had a stroke of genius in bringing in Meyer. The only thing that has ever stopped him from putting up top of the rotation numbers is injury. If he's healthy, he should be good. 

[Stradling]

I hope so Scotty. I am a positive guy and I am even bummed by the return.   

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

I hope so Scotty. I am a positive guy and I am even bummed by the return.   

I'm not the doc, but if I were, I'd prescribe a healthy dose of staring at Meyer's minor league numbers and his 2013 scouting report. That might cheer you up. 

Another thing I've found that works in short bursts is dreaming on a rotation that actually looks like this: Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Meyer, Shoemaker, Tropeano, Smith....

That has the potential to be the best, and cheapest rotation in the big leagues. We're a couple years away from that potential outcome, but it's sort of like the teams with big time prospects. They just keep saying, "wait until ______ arrives!"

[Jeff Williams]

I posted on MLBTR over the Santiago trade, as well, but this is a gambled projection trade on a 26 y/o prospect that has durabilty concerns altogether.  Eppler alluded too of interview with Roger Lodge yesterday that he's shown to be unhittable of a prospect.  But that Ryan Madsen like throwing motion also asks whether he can sustain as a MLB SP.  Along with Chuck mentioning, he could fall back into the bullpen for that reason.  And with that risk at stake and the age, I would have kept the bird in the hand from a 33 y/o Nolasco getting lit up and uncertainty whether Meyer will start regularly upon his return this year.  

Eppler exercised with a PUT on Meyer by this trade.  Looks knee-jerk to me!

[ksangel]

Nolasco = Santiago??

Santiago has #2 or #3 stuff....Nolasco hasn't had that type of stuff in a long time if ever plus his ERA the last three years has been 5.38, 6.75 and 5.13 (given he plays for the Twin's).  He's on the back end of a so-so career.  Santiago just went 6-0 in July. Yes Santiago's peripherals don't match his results but the guy pitches when it counts.

Believe this trade will bite the Angels in the rear...very short sighted and it cost them about $2M to boot (Santiago owed about $2M this year and $8.5M next year = $10.5 and Nolasco is owned about $4.6M this year and $12M next year = $16.6M for a $6.1M difference minus what Twins chipped in $4M = $2.1M).

Can see the Angels DFA'ing Nolasco, eating his $12M contract for next year and having to sign another starter this off season to replace Santiago/Nolasco.

Not counting on Meyers...he's not a 6'-9" Randy Johnson clone waiting to harness his electric stuff.

 

[ettin]

9 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

The concern witrh Meyer is definitely the injuries and if he could return to form after having those injuries. I'm not even sure exactly what he's been dealing with, but he's barely pitched this year.

I don't really like how Meyer is already 26 years old. Santiago isn't even that much older than him and he has been pitching in the majors since 2011.

Meyers is an old prospect at this point, but I do see some positives with him. He obviously has potential. Even in 2014, when we put up a 4.79 ERA, he struck out a ton of people and had a 3.28 FIP.

And like someone else said, his 2013 year was great.

I hope the gamble pays off. We knew what we were getting from Hector at this point.

It is a gamble in some respects particularly with the injury history.

However this is exactly what I was talking about in the Trade Candidate series in the idea that the Angels, in order to do a quick retool of their roster to compete in 2018 (or as I said in the Wrap Up 2017), would very likely be looking to trade for near-ready MLB prospects to help the big league team immediately. Meyer is a guy that can potentially do that and because he is already at a mature age by MLB standards (the famous peaking at age 27 theory which I don't necessarily buy) there is a chance he can contribute if he can spend the rest of this year finding his groove again.

You'll notice before he went out with his shoulder issue he was doing really well in his 17.1 IP. There is hope that this was a good move even if there is high risk.

[Ohtaniland]

Pretty sure the Twinkees are happy to get a 28 year old starter in exchange for their soon to be 34 year old starter. Although I'm sure that the 1000 more innings of experience that Nolasco has was the selling point.

[tomsred]

20 minutes ago, CALZONE said:

Pretty sure the Twinkees are happy to get a 28 year old starter in exchange for their soon to be 34 year old starter. Although I'm sure that the 1000 more innings of experience that Nolasco has was the selling point.

Someone missed Fletcher's video, and Eppler's statements on the trade.

[Ohtaniland]

2 minutes ago, tomsred said:

Someone missed Fletcher's video, and Eppler's statements on the trade.

I'm not convinced that this was a good trade. It's surely a gamble because of Meyer's health. I just don't think we needed Nolasco at this point or any of his contract. Santiago for prospects is what we needed. You can pick up a Nolasco at any Home Depot. 

jk

[Docwaukee]

13 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

We're largely sympatico as usual, Doc. That said, I'm not sure why "the philosophy behind the deal" troubles you, or how it means that the Angels are trying to assemble a vague semblance of competition at the expense of future success. You and I agree that 2017, and probably 2018, are lost causes and only secondary towards building for 2019 and beyond. But this trade does just that. In Nolasco the Angels have an innings eater for 2017. If we see 2017 as lost, it doesn't matter if it is Santiago or Nolasco. But in Meyer - while far from a sure thing - Eppler acquired another youngish arm that could fit right in with Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Tropeano, and Shoemaker. Again, given that 2017 is essentially lost, it can be a year in which Meyer establishes himself in a new context, gets a starting job and the major league experience to take a step forward in 2018.

To put it another way, Nolasco is an adequate replacement for 2017--and possibly 2018--and Meyer gives the Angels another potential mid-rotation arm for their next contending team in 2019. It isn't a sexy trade, or one that is obviously good, but I think it is one that will grow on fans in time.

 

Fair enough.  Philosophically, it means that we use all available resources for the immediate future.  If you don't think that Meyer's ability to contribute to the 2017 team wasn't part of the equation then maybe I am seeing something different.  

There are going to be other moves made to supplement next year that I think will leave us scratching our heads.  I hope not, but this is the type of move that's a precursor to that.  Something like Bedrosian for a #4 starter or a couple of minor leaguers who we like for an OFer with 2-3 years of club control.  

Of course I want it to work out for the best.  That would be terrific, but I think as much as we are praying Meyer becomes our Jake Arrieta, he's more likely to become our Jake from State Farm.  

[tomsred]

Just now, CALZONE said:

I'm not convinced that this was a good trade. It's surely a gamble because of Meyer's health. I just don't think we needed Nolasco at this point or any of his contract. Santiago for prospects is what we needed. You can pick up a Nolasco at any Home Depot. 

jk

So was Skaggs a gamble this year also, Meyer has the same injury?  I think the injury is overstated at this point by the fans.  The gamble is more like "can a 6'9" starter command his pitches effectively enough to start, or at least be a decent receiver at minimum?  He looks like he rushes his delivery to me, but I'm no expert.   However I want to shout "slow down a little."

[DMVol]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Fair enough.  Philosophically, it means that we use all available resources for the immediate future.  If you don't think that Meyer's ability to contribute to the 2017 team wasn't part of the equation then maybe I am seeing something different.   

I don't have a problem with the thought that Meyer can contribute in 2017....actually, I'd prefer an "almost ready" guy to a A or AA guy who is a couple of years away....My problem with the trade is that Meyer has Grant Green written all over him....1st rounder who has just not been able to bust through at nearly 27....not many guys follow that career path to success....hope I'm wrong but that just isn't the return I envisioned for Santiago....

[Second Base]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Fair enough.  Philosophically, it means that we use all available resources for the immediate future.  If you don't think that Meyer's ability to contribute to the 2017 team wasn't part of the equation then maybe I am seeing something different.  

There are going to be other moves made to supplement next year that I think will leave us scratching our heads.  I hope not, but this is the type of move that's a precursor to that.  Something like Bedrosian for a #4 starter or a couple of minor leaguers who we like for an OFer with 2-3 years of club control.  

Of course I want it to work out for the best.  That would be terrific, but I think as much as we are praying Meyer becomes our Jake Arrieta, he's more likely to become our Jake from State Farm.  

Perhaps I'm not understanding this correctly, but what makes you believe Meyer's ability to contribute next year isn't part of the equation? He's the focus of this trade, and Eppler himself said their hope is to have Meyer in the rotation in 2017.

i think Nolasco is just noise. He's that thing we took on in order to make this trade workable for the Twins from a financial standpoint.

[ettin]

6 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Fair enough.  Philosophically, it means that we use all available resources for the immediate future.  If you don't think that Meyer's ability to contribute to the 2017 team wasn't part of the equation then maybe I am seeing something different.  

There are going to be other moves made to supplement next year that I think will leave us scratching our heads.  I hope not, but this is the type of move that's a precursor to that.  Something like Bedrosian for a #4 starter or a couple of minor leaguers who we like for an OFer with 2-3 years of club control.  

Of course I want it to work out for the best.  That would be terrific, but I think as much as we are praying Meyer becomes our Jake Arrieta, he's more likely to become our Jake from State Farm.  

I can just see Angels stadium on Military Day.... Jeff Fletcher interviewing Alex Meyer: "Do the Angels have any special uniforms for todays game?" Meyer: "Khakis".

[Troll Daddy]

We traded Santiago for Meyers ... it's really that simple. Someone said that Nolasco is just rotation filler ... agreed.

Meyer is a young cost controlled pitcher with star potential but comes with some risk.

Or

Trade Santiago for a safer bet but with less star potential. 

Just a matter of preference ... I choose balls over brains

i've read that Meyer's has a devastating breaking ball and working on his change up. 

[Docwaukee]

Just now, ScottyA_MWAH said:

Perhaps I'm not understanding this correctly, but what makes you believe Meyer's ability to contribute next year isn't part of the equation? He's the focus of this trade, and Eppler himself said their hope is to have Meyer in the rotation in 2017.

i think Nolasco is just noise. He's that thing we took on in order to make this trade workable for the Twins from a financial standpoint.

It is.  Which means that we are using our available currency for what I think is a lost season.  But in order to find a guy who is major league ready and has upside for Santiago, you get a guy who also has no control, is going to be 27 and has had a cup of coffee in the bigs.  On top of that, he's thrown 21 innings because of shoulder issues.  

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

15 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I would have preferred player/players with the greatest possible value regardless of their level.  With less of a focus on what is going to help in 2017 or even 2018.  If that talent isn't ready but the team is somehow making a run, you can always use it to acquire other talent.  

From the sound of things though, Eppler really wanted Meyer.  Who probably has more upside than any other player we could have gotten for Hector.  So far, Eppler has done a solid job of finding his guy and getting him.  Even if the deal seems odd at the time.  

Gotta give the guy some credit in that this guy has #2 starter or top flight closer potential.  If it works out, he looks like a genius.  

 

That said, regardless of the players involved, the philosophy behind the deal is what troubles me but I guess I shouldn't be surprised after seeing the Simmons and Escobar deals.  I just think we are pissing in the wind for 2017 and I really hope we don't start giving up farm pieces to take the team to 80% of what would be a contender.  Leaving the other 20% to chance/luck.  I know that a huge chunk component of that is not on Eppler, but Arte.  

Anyway, not what I was hoping for, but the 'what I would do' ship sailed a while ago.   

The real downside of this deal is that I look at Meyer and think the most likely outcome is that we gave Santiago away for nothing. This is a very similar deal to the Callaspo for Grant Green trade. At the time we were excited to get a first rounder with a slick scouting report for an expiring contract. Unfortunately teams don't just give guys like Meyer away when everything is OK. Obviously they have decided that he is pushing 27 and can't stay healthy as a starter. 

I think the right move would've been to try and extend Santiago to a team friendly deal, say 4/$50m. Meyer's upside is probably not too far off from Santiago really.

[Torridd]

Nice stuff, ettin. All I can say is that I hope Meyer works out. Eppler has a lot of his reputation riding on this one.

[ettin]

2 minutes ago, Torridd said:

Nice stuff, ettin. All I can say is that I hope Meyer works out. Eppler has a lot of his reputation riding on this one.

Agreed it is a risk move without a doubt. I'm hoping that the 98 mph fastball and good slider at least give us a good back-end bullpen piece in the event he can't hack it as a starter.