Jump to content
  • Welcome to AngelsWin.com

    AngelsWin.com - THE Internet Home for Angels fans! Unraveling Angels Baseball ... One Thread at a Time.

    Register today to join the most interactive online Angels community on the net!

    Once you're a member you'll see less advertisements. Become a Premium member and you won't see any ads! 

     

IGNORED

2016 Trade Deadline Analysis


ettin

Recommended Posts

I'll let Chuck and David post this formally if they choose to do so but here is an analysis of the two trades the Angels made today:

 

2016 Trade Deadline Analysis

Minutes before the trade deadline expired, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim announced two trades involving LHP Hector Santiago and RHR Alan Busenitz going to the Twins and RHR Joe Smith being sent to the Cubs.

Frankly the latter trade is simply the Angels cashing in pure rental player Joe Smith for low A-ball RHP Jesus Castillo.

Jesus is a young 20 year old potential lottery ticket type pitcher that was not in the Cubs Top 30 prospects (but will be in the Angels system). Castillo has a fastball that sits at 91-92 mph and is noted as having an advanced change up but his splits this year show that he needs to improve his command and control against left-handed hitters. You can read short scouting reports here and here (w/video clip).

This will go down as a classic rental trade involving a set up reliever for a low to mid-level prospect. Eppler did well enough to get someone of this potential but beyond that there is not much to see here so let us move along to the other more interesting trade.

When I first saw the Santiago trade announced on Twitter I have to admit it gave me pause. Switching out mid-rotation type starters with the Busenitz/Meyer swap seemed odd at first glance. Additionally the Twins sent a small amount of cash to even out the 2016 and 2017 salaries of Nolasco and Santiago making this a cash neutral trade for the Angels in those two seasons.

So what have the Angels done here and why?

First of all let us examine the contracts. As previously stated in the ‘2016 Trade Candidate: Hector Santiago’ article Hector has approximately $2.5MM left on his 2016 contract and is likely to make about $8.5MM in 2017 via arbitration and will become a free agent after next season.

Nolasco has approximately $6MM remaining on his contract this year, $12MM for 2017, and a team option year in 2018 for $13MM with a $1MM buyout. If Ricky pitches a total of 400 innings between 2016 and 2017 that option year becomes a player option instead.

The Angels rotation woes for 2017 are well documented at this point. As we discussed in the ‘2016 Trade Deadline Wrap Up’ article the Angels would need to add at least two starters next year even if they did keep Santiago.

So in order to move Hector they really needed to obtain a MLB or near-ready MLB prospect starting pitcher and in this case they obtained the former in Nolasco.

The reason they targeted Ricky specifically was his contract length and option year. Currently Nolasco has pitched approximately 125 innings this season. This essentially means that Ricky will have to pitch an additional 275 more innings between now and the end of 2017 to turn the 2018 team option into a player option.

This could be beneficial to the Angels because they currently have two starters, Heaney and Tropeano, that will not return until the 2018 season and Richards who will likely go under the knife himself and be in the same situation. If all of them are recovering from Tommy John surgery the odds that all three will return healthy in 2018 is approximately 51%.

Having a starter with a team option year for that season would give the Angels insurance in case one or more of the above are not ready for the 2018 season. In the best case scenario, where all three are healthy and available, the Angels can simply exercise Ricky’s $1MM buyout and part ways with him.

Beyond the logical contract issues Santiago is a better starter than Nolasco when he is at his best and is a lot worse than Ricky when he is at his worst. Below are Santiago’s and Nolasco’s career K%-BB% splits:

zkIOqaGG8AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC

Really when you look at Hector’s and Ricky’s batted ball profile and splits you see pitchers that achieve similar results through different approaches.

Santiago works hitters by creating poor contact (less line drives) and when he does that well, he looks like the ace of a team. Nolasco is better at controlling the zone, putting the ball a little more on the ground, and walking hitters less.

Basically the Angels are losing Hector’s flashes of brilliance in exchange for a bit more consistency and groundballs (versus RHH’s) from Ricky.

The kicker for the Angels and what makes this a potentially good trade is the addition of the Twins #8 prospect, per FanGraphs, Alex Meyer.

Meyer is a former 1st round prospect from the 2011 draft that, all the way up until last year, was a Top 100 prospect in baseball. You can read the FanGraphs prospect review here.

Alex has a potentially 80 grade fastball with an above average knuckle curveball and a developing change up. He has been recovering from a shoulder injury and is expected, per Jeff Fletcher, to begin throwing again in about 2 weeks.

Eppler stated in the Fletcher piece that they plan to bring Meyer into Spring Training as a starter in 2017 to give him an opportunity to compete for a rotation spot. In the worst case scenario, if Alex can’t get his command under control as a starter, Meyer could turn into an elite reliever so the outcomes here are fairly rosy for the Halos. The loss of Busenitz is more than mitigated by the potential of Meyer.

In the end this trade looks like a high upside play for the Angels. Not only did they exchange the sporadic higher ceiling performance of Hector for the more groundball-oriented, lower walk rate of Ricky they picked up a high-ceiling pitching prospect in Alex Meyer whose value was depressed due to injury.

Of course any trade can backfire but right now I like what the Angels did here by bringing in two potential starters for 2017 and increasing their insurance policy on Richards, Heaney, and Tropeano for the 2018 season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, ettin said:

Alex has a potentially 80 grade fastball with an above average knuckle curveball and a developing change up. He has been recovering from a shoulder injury and is expected, per Jeff Fletcher, to begin throwing again in about 2 weeks.

 

Sounds like a taller version of the 1970s Burt Hooten?  Hope he can stay healthy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Having a Nolasco on your team can't be all bad.

All prospects are just prospects until proven otherwise ... I think most of us here have learned that over the years. 

Here's hoping that all seven of the recently obtained Yankee prospects are a big fat bust!

GL Alex Meyers ... welcome to the team.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

" In the worst case scenario, if Alex can’t get his command under control as a starter, Meyer could turn into an elite reliever so the outcomes here are fairly rosy for the Halos."

The "worst case scenario" is that he might turn into an elite reliever?  You're sure optimistic, ettin!  :) I think the worst case scenario is that he can't hack it as a reliever, either, and is out of baseball in a couple of years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

" In the worst case scenario, if Alex can’t get his command under control as a starter, Meyer could turn into an elite reliever so the outcomes here are fairly rosy for the Halos."

The "worst case scenario" is that he might turn into an elite reliever?  You're sure optimistic, ettin!  :) I think the worst case scenario is that he can't hack it as a reliever, either, and is out of baseball in a couple of years.

When I was writing that particular sentence I was focused more on what would happen if he couldn't continue starting and went to relief. I did state at the end that the trade could backfire which would be Meyer out of baseball but I really don't think that will happen so maybe I'm sipping the Kool Aid a little too much in that regard. Otherwise I stand by Eppler's thought process and see the logic in what he did executing this trade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hope you're right about this, Ettin. To me it looks like we traded a decent starter for a worse starter, earning more, with the same length of club control ... as well as a relief prospect. I don't see Meyer sticking as a starter, that seems pretty unrealistic at this point. I firmly believe if we'd just auctioned Santiago off for prospects and not had this strange obsession with filling the 2017 rotation that we would have got a much better return.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

I hope you're right about this, Ettin. To me it looks like we traded a decent starter for a worse starter, earning more, with the same length of club control ... as well as a relief prospect. I don't see Meyer sticking as a starter, that seems pretty unrealistic at this point. I firmly believe if we'd just auctioned Santiago off for prospects and not had this strange obsession with filling the 2017 rotation that we would have got a much better return.

You may very well be right Oz. We have to wait and see what happens during the offseason to better understand where Eppler is going. If they crap the bed and don't do anything during the offseason towards contention type moves is when I'll get pretty flabbergasted.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ettin said:

You may very well be right Oz. We have to wait and see what happens during the offseason to better understand where Eppler is going. If they crap the bed and don't do anything during the offseason towards contention type moves is when I'll get pretty flabbergasted.

What can they actually do in the offseason, though? It's hard to look at that free agent crop and think we can make this team 20-25 wins better, which is what it will take.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

What can they actually do in the offseason, though? It's hard to look at that free agent crop and think we can make this team 20-25 wins better, which is what it will take.

Personally moves I'd like to see: 1 ) Sign Wilson Ramos 2 ) Trade Carlos Perez for a LF 3 ) Sign Kenley Jansen 4 ) Sign a SP like Ivan Nova 5 ) Trade one or two prospects for a pitcher like Edinson Volquez with one year remaining on their contract.

Catching offense with improve immensely without losing anything defensively with Ramos/Bandy behind the dish. Carlos Perez could very well bring back a LF near ready MLB or MLB prospect. Jansen, if signed to a contract with an opt out after 2017 or 2018, would make the back-end of our bullpen very formidable with Bedrosian. Nova and Volquez are groundball pitchers that would fit well into our infield defense with Simmons and would give the team pitching depth (Shoemaker, Skaggs, Nova, Volquez, Nolasco, Meyer, Smith, and Scribner).

I think if they do something like that and spend about $40MM we can be competitive in the AL West. If things go South we can trade off any of our back-end pitchers, we can trade off Jansen assuming he's having a good year and would opt out for a better contract after 2017, etc... Then we'd flip to 2018 where hopefully and God willing we'll have three good healthy starters back and we will have a hopefully really good rotation and money left over from Jansen leaving.

I went over this in the 2016 Trade Deadline Wrap Up article if you want to read a little more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, ettin said:

Personally moves I'd like to see: 1 ) Sign Wilson Ramos 2 ) Trade Carlos Perez for a LF 3 ) Sign Kenley Jansen 4 ) Sign a SP like Ivan Nova 5 ) Trade one or two prospects for a pitcher like Edinson Volquez with one year remaining on their contract.

Catching offense with improve immensely without losing anything defensively with Ramos/Bandy behind the dish. Carlos Perez could very well bring back a LF near ready MLB or MLB prospect. Jansen, if signed to a contract with an opt out after 2017 or 2018, would make the back-end of our bullpen very formidable with Bedrosian. Nova and Volquez are groundball pitchers that would fit well into our infield defense with Simmons and would give the team pitching depth (Shoemaker, Skaggs, Nova, Volquez, Nolasco, Meyer, Smith, and Scribner).

I think if they do something like that and spend about $40MM we can be competitive in the AL West. If things go South we can trade off any of our back-end pitchers, we can trade off Jansen assuming he's having a good year and would opt out for a better contract after 2017, etc... Then we'd flip to 2018 where hopefully and God willing we'll have three good healthy starters back and we will have a hopefully really good rotation and money left over from Jansen leaving.

I went over this in the 2016 Trade Deadline Wrap Up article if you want to read a little more.

You raise some interesting ideas but I personally hope we do exactly the opposite. In that scenario we give up money, draft picks and prospects yet still get left with a team riddled with holes - especially in the starting rotation. If we went all in like that, we might have an outside chance of sneaking into the playoffs. But in my view we'd more likely be an 80-85 win team. There has to be a point where you realize that isn't enough and you need to do things differently. Is that team good enough to beat the Rangers and Astros? Is it good enough to win the division? Almost certainly not. Our goal absolutely has to be beyond 2017, otherwise we'll forever be stuck in this shitty middle ground and waste a decade of the best player in baseball. The current path is not working and it needs to change.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah Oz I totally agree.

The front office seems determined to push forward with competing in 2017 so my expectation is that they need to do it right or don't do it at all. The moves above are about the only ones I can really see them do successfully without spending more than about $40MM. The only real impact players on the market will be Wilson Ramos, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Yoenis Cespedes. The latter will cost too much to be honest.

I really hope Eppler is allowed to do his job and create a strategic vision.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good stuff, ettin. As is usually the case, the initial "WTF?" response is a bit overblown - mainly because Angels fans (like all fans) tend to overrate their own players in terms of trade value. I had honestly never heard of Busenitz before this trade. The Angels got a slightly downgrade in Nolasco over Santiago, but a much higher ceiling (but also risk) in Meyer - the type of trade Eppler should be making.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Good stuff, ettin. As is usually the case, the initial "WTF?" response is a bit overblown - mainly because Angels fans (like all fans) tend to overrate their own players in terms of trade value. I had honestly never heard of Busenitz before this trade. The Angels got a slightly downgrade in Nolasco over Santiago, but a much higher ceiling (but also risk) in Meyer - the type of trade Eppler should be making.

I would have preferred player/players with the greatest possible value regardless of their level.  With less of a focus on what is going to help in 2017 or even 2018.  If that talent isn't ready but the team is somehow making a run, you can always use it to acquire other talent.  

From the sound of things though, Eppler really wanted Meyer.  Who probably has more upside than any other player we could have gotten for Hector.  So far, Eppler has done a solid job of finding his guy and getting him.  Even if the deal seems odd at the time.  

Gotta give the guy some credit in that this guy has #2 starter or top flight closer potential.  If it works out, he looks like a genius.  

 

That said, regardless of the players involved, the philosophy behind the deal is what troubles me but I guess I shouldn't be surprised after seeing the Simmons and Escobar deals.  I just think we are pissing in the wind for 2017 and I really hope we don't start giving up farm pieces to take the team to 80% of what would be a contender.  Leaving the other 20% to chance/luck.  I know that a huge chunk component of that is not on Eppler, but Arte.  

Anyway, not what I was hoping for, but the 'what I would do' ship sailed a while ago.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I would have preferred player/players with the greatest possible value regardless of their level.  With less of a focus on what is going to help in 2017 or even 2018.  If that talent isn't ready but the team is somehow making a run, you can always use it to acquire other talent.  

From the sound of things though, Eppler really wanted Meyer.  Who probably has more upside than any other player we could have gotten for Hector.  So far, Eppler has done a solid job of finding his guy and getting him.  Even if the deal seems odd at the time.  

Gotta give the guy some credit in that this guy has #2 starter or top flight closer potential.  If it works out, he looks like a genius.  

 

That said, regardless of the players involved, the philosophy behind the deal is what troubles me but I guess I shouldn't be surprised after seeing the Simmons and Escobar deals.  I just think we are pissing in the wind for 2017 and I really hope we don't start giving up farm pieces to take the team to 80% of what would be a contender.  Leaving the other 20% to chance/luck.  I know that a huge chunk component of that is not on Eppler, but Arte.  

Anyway, not what I was hoping for, but the 'what I would do' ship sailed a while ago.   

You summed this up so well. I fear at this point it's likely we're going to give up prospects for another half-assed attempt to win now, but it will be insufficient for it to actually be likely to get it done.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Oz27 said:

What can they actually do in the offseason, though? It's hard to look at that free agent crop and think we can make this team 20-25 wins better, which is what it will take.

If our pitchers were coming back and we were to sign Reddick and a 2nd baseman along with one of the elite bullpen arms, I could see us being 20 games better.  Since our starters aren't coming back, it will be a STRUGGLE to be a second wild card.  As it looks now, I think .500 next year would be a good year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

You summed this up so well. I fear at this point it's likely we're going to give up prospects for another half-assed attempt to win now, but it will be insufficient for it to actually be likely to get it done.

The only thing about Eppler so far is if he is giving up prospects, he is probably going after a young player, that would be part of our team for awhile. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If our pitchers were coming back and we were to sign Reddick and a 2nd baseman along with one of the elite bullpen arms, I could see us being 20 games better.  Since our starters aren't coming back, it will be a STRUGGLE to be a second wild card.  As it looks now, I think .500 next year would be a good year. 

Which really begs the question, why are we doing this? Why are we focusing on 2017 when it would take a borderline miracle to have any realistic shot of winning the divisions. Finishing at .500 while making middling moves focused on now rather than the future isn't a good year, it's another wasted year of Mike Trout.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

Which really begs the question, why are we doing this? Why are we focusing on 2017 when it would take a borderline miracle to have any realistic shot of winning the divisions. Finishing at .500 while making middling moves focused on now rather than the future isn't a good year, it's another wasted year of Mike Trout.

the key component of this is the use of resources to be that .500 club instead of saving them for when the team is whole and healthy.  

25 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If our pitchers were coming back and we were to sign Reddick and a 2nd baseman along with one of the elite bullpen arms, I could see us being 20 games better.  Since our starters aren't coming back, it will be a STRUGGLE to be a second wild card.  As it looks now, I think .500 next year would be a good year. 

a bit different wording of this and it's apropos to last winter.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

In regards to 2017, whether or not we plan to contend I'm pretty sure the team will be required to play all 162 games. Shouldn't they at least try to put ML level players on the field? We're going to need 5 starters plus a few more who have options. I don't think we have that in place just yet.

Finding guys to play isn't that hard. It's called replacement level for a reason - it's not that hard to find. You don't need to give up players who actually have value to make that happen. There are three players in DFA limbo now who could come in and pitch useful innings for us, having to sacrifice nothing other than a roster spot and whatever they are contracted to earn. There are guys like that there all the time. There are cheap free agents and minor league deals in the offseason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...