So I'm pretty sure the Angels will be going after Heyward

[nikkachez]

What makes you think that Calhoun would suffer so greatly by moving to left field? In any case Heyward is a better defender than Calhoun. 

Yeah I'm not too worried about moving corner outfielders. I think Kole would still be great in right, and I'm sure Heyward's capable of playing left. If Heyward wants to play right and you're trying to sign him, you let him play right field. I think having some of the winter to start working on left along with all of Spring Training would be a huge help. 

[nikkachez]

I'll check that article out later when I get home, but look at this:

 

Calhoun 2015: 6 DRS, 13.8 UZR, 

Heyward 2015: 22 DRS, 20.2 UZR

 

Now keep in mind that Heyward has done this for years.  Calhoun had his best year last year by far. In a park as big as the Angels have I wouldn't underestimate the value of adding Heyward.  Also consider the fact that for the Angels this year, RF had only about 40 more put outs than LF.  And that was WITH the terrible fielding the Angels got from LF and the GG fielding from RF.  Meaning Calhoun got to more balls than average and the LF platoon got to less than they should have.  Meaning the total chances they got were basically even.  Meaning the value between LF and RF isn't as great as some might perceive it to be.  

 

In addition to all of this your valuation of Heyward's offense is way off.  According to fangraphs, Heyward's offense was ranked 30th this year.  That means if all players were distributed equally he would still be the best hitter on one team and would be the second best hitter on every other team.  This is all coming from a guy who just played his age 25 season.   How many players have their best seasons that young??  Not very many.  If they did we wouldn't talk about players primes.  He has likely not even come close to what he is truly capable of doing with the bat.  In one of my previous posts I showed his trends.  If you go by career numbers only and don't factor in age or other factors then you end up signing guys like Pujols, Hamilton, Wells, etc.  You want to pay for (and actually get) the best years of someones career?  Here is the chance.

Exactly! Heyward would be a beast on this team, I want him hitting second though, with someone else brought aboard to leadoff. Not sure who, just sort of thinking out loud. Prado could be an option to lead off and fill a major hole, still deciding second base. 

 

1. Prado 3B

2. Heyward RF

3. Trout CF

4. Pujols 1B/DH

5. Calhoun LF

6. Cron DH/1B

7. 

8. Perez/Another catching option 

9. Simmons SS

[beatlesrule]

I'll check that article out later when I get home, but look at this:

Calhoun 2015: 6 DRS, 13.8 UZR,

Heyward 2015: 22 DRS, 20.2 UZR

Now keep in mind that Heyward has done this for years. Calhoun had his best year last year by far. In a park as big as the Angels have I wouldn't underestimate the value of adding Heyward. Also consider the fact that for the Angels this year, RF had only about 40 more put outs than LF. And that was WITH the terrible fielding the Angels got from LF and the GG fielding from RF. Meaning Calhoun got to more balls than average and the LF platoon got to less than they should have. Meaning the total chances they got were basically even. Meaning the value between LF and RF isn't as great as some might perceive it to be.

In addition to all of this your valuation of Heyward's offense is way off. According to fangraphs, Heyward's offense was ranked 30th this year. That means if all players were distributed equally he would still be the best hitter on one team and would be the second best hitter on every other team. This is all coming from a guy who just played his age 25 season. How many players have their best seasons that young?? Not very many. If they did we wouldn't talk about players primes. He has likely not even come close to what he is truly capable of doing with the bat. In one of my previous posts I showed his trends. If you go by career numbers only and don't factor in age or other factors then you end up signing guys like Pujols, Hamilton, Wells, etc. You want to pay for (and actually get) the best years of someones career? Here is the chance.

This post is awesome!

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

I am now convinced, the Angels need to sign Heywood specifically.

[AngelsFanSince86]

Just wanted to add this fangraphs article to this discussion.  Its an article about the biggest value FAs on the market with Heyward leading the list:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-bargains-of-the-2016-free-agent-class/

[ten ocho recon scout]

I'll check that article out later when I get home, but look at this:

Calhoun 2015: 6 DRS, 13.8 UZR,

Heyward 2015: 22 DRS, 20.2 UZR

Now keep in mind that Heyward has done this for years. Calhoun had his best year last year by far. In a park as big as the Angels have I wouldn't underestimate the value of adding Heyward. Also consider the fact that for the Angels this year, RF had only about 40 more put outs than LF. And that was WITH the terrible fielding the Angels got from LF and the GG fielding from RF. Meaning Calhoun got to more balls than average and the LF platoon got to less than they should have. Meaning the total chances they got were basically even. Meaning the value between LF and RF isn't as great as some might perceive it to be.

In addition to all of this your valuation of Heyward's offense is way off. According to fangraphs, Heyward's offense was ranked 30th this year. That means if all players were distributed equally he would still be the best hitter on one team and would be the second best hitter on every other team. This is all coming from a guy who just played his age 25 season. How many players have their best seasons that young?? Not very many. If they did we wouldn't talk about players primes. He has likely not even come close to what he is truly capable of doing with the bat. In one of my previous posts I showed his trends. If you go by career numbers only and don't factor in age or other factors then you end up signing guys like Pujols, Hamilton, Wells, etc. You want to pay for (and actually get) the best years of someones career? Here is the chance.

im still an upton guy, but that was the best sales pitch for heyward ive read yet. Good take.

ANd youre probably right, angel stadium is a good park for a plus outfielder to show value

[Jim]

Heyward, Cueto, Soria, and swap Smith for Storen. BOOM, we have a team that will contend. How much are you willing to bet none of this happens?

 

Forget Prado, that aint ever happening.... probably happen first. 

 

Don't want Zobrist, Upton (sorry ocho), or Cespedes. 2 of the three are now locks, you're welcome.   

[tomsred]

Eppler seems like the type of dude who would have a lurker account on here. 

 A "lurker account"?

 

That sounds cool, how do you get one of those, do you have to pay for it or something?  Is there an application form you have to fill out?

 

Edited November 17, 2015 by tomsred

[ten ocho recon scout]

Sadly Jim is probably right. All depends on if arte is willing to spend, and how badly the competition wants who we want.

[tomsred]

im still an upton guy, but that was the best sales pitch for heyward ive read yet. Good take.

ANd youre probably right, angel stadium is a good park for a plus outfielder to show value

 

Just once, I would like to hear someone point out the negatives to Heyward.  The guy is not a Mike Trout, and we can find fault with Mike, surely there must be some reasons to be cautious with Heyward.  Everybody has strengths and weaknesses, what are his weaknesses.  That was a good take on Heyward, but like a lot of other posts we realize what's good, let's find out what's bad.  I'm not trying to say we shouldn't do it (sign Heyward), I'm just trying to get a realistic assessment of him.

[totdprods]

Just once, I would like to hear someone point out the negatives to Heyward. The guy is not a Mike Trout, and we can find fault with Mike, surely there must be some reasons to be cautious with Heyward. Everybody has strengths and weaknesses, what are his weaknesses. That was a good take on Heyward, but like a lot of other posts we realize what's good, let's find out what's bad. I'm not trying to say we shouldn't do it (sign Heyward), I'm just trying to get a realistic assessment of him.

He might just top out at a .250-.260 guy with 10-15 HRs a year. That seems like that'd be his floor, barring a Carl Crawford-type collapse. That wouldn't be worth it the money he'd receive.

But, it's hard to see his OBP, arm, decent speed, and defense skills diminishing that rapidly over the duration of his contract. You don't see many 26-year olds with those skills that are strong as his are just disintegrate overnight. If he was 32, yeah.

In some ways, that is his appeal and value, especially to us Angels fans who have become so used to being burned and let down.

Heyward can't really be any 'worse' than he's already been, and what he has been is a multi-dimensional player with elite defense, good base running, good discipline, and a good arm with inconsistent power and to a degree average.

But he certainly could become better.

Edited November 17, 2015 by totdprods

[Brent Maguire]

Just wanted to add this fangraphs article to this discussion.  Its an article about the biggest value FAs on the market with Heyward leading the list:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-bargains-of-the-2016-free-agent-class/

Good list and only makes me want the Angels to target Heyward/Zobrist even more. 

 

If you want a star for a totally fair deal for the next 7-9 years, Heyward is your guy. If you want a good player on a super friendly deal for the short term, Zobrist makes a boatload of sense. 

[tomsred]

Here's some stats I've picked from his career:

 

His lifetime batting average is .268, he's been an All Star only once (2012).  His best year was 2012 when he had 27 HR's and 82 RBI's as a run producer, he hasn't been really close to that since.  In 2015 he hit .264 with runners in scoring position.  He didn't hit as well at night vs. day games (.276 vs. .331) in 2015.  It's hard to find negatives about him, I don't know what kind of clubhouse guy he his, or what his character is like.  I'm not very good at ferreting out weaknesses, teams negotiating with his agent probably would have much better ones.

 

I totally agree that he fits the mold of what we need, I especially like the defense and speed he brings.  However, is this the type of guy you want to give an eight year contract to for $200M+?  I would hate to go through more anguish over a guy making $25M+ per year on average compared to what he can actually accomplish.

 

Maybe the biggest argument for not doing Heyward is that that maybe it's better to spread the risk (diversification) over several very good players than one best player.  What if he gets seriously injured (on or off field), and if he declines in some way doesn't he become untradeable (like Pujols)?  And do the teams that has recently succeeded have these types of All Stars at every position?  Is it better to have a team of some seriously good role players?  

 

Now that I've thought all of that out, probably the very best reason to do Heyward is to protect (and make more effective) Trout and Pujols offensively with someone other than CJ Cron and David Freese.  We also need speed and more defense, he's also probably the best player on the board right now for that.  He is a good fit. 

[Hollyw00d]

That's still an absurd amount of money, for 200 mil you should be looking at an mvp caliber player. Guys like Kevin keirmaier play great defense and he won't get 1/4th of that money.

I dont think the rays are gonna let kiermaier go anytime soon

[totdprods]

Wow. It just struck me.

He sort of compares to Torii Hunter, who made $18m/year ages 32-36.

If you could sign Torii Hunter at age 26, would you pay him 20-25m per year?

Edited November 17, 2015 by totdprods

[Corona]

I'll check that article out later when I get home, but look at this:

Calhoun 2015: 6 DRS, 13.8 UZR,

Heyward 2015: 22 DRS, 20.2 UZR

Now keep in mind that Heyward has done this for years. Calhoun had his best year last year by far. In a park as big as the Angels have I wouldn't underestimate the value of adding Heyward. Also consider the fact that for the Angels this year, RF had only about 40 more put outs than LF. And that was WITH the terrible fielding the Angels got from LF and the GG fielding from RF. Meaning Calhoun got to more balls than average and the LF platoon got to less than they should have. Meaning the total chances they got were basically even. Meaning the value between LF and RF isn't as great as some might perceive it to be.

In addition to all of this your valuation of Heyward's offense is way off. According to fangraphs, Heyward's offense was ranked 30th this year. That means if all players were distributed equally he would still be the best hitter on one team and would be the second best hitter on every other team. This is all coming from a guy who just played his age 25 season. How many players have their best seasons that young?? Not very many. If they did we wouldn't talk about players primes. He has likely not even come close to what he is truly capable of doing with the bat. In one of my previous posts I showed his trends. If you go by career numbers only and don't factor in age or other factors then you end up signing guys like Pujols, Hamilton, Wells, etc. You want to pay for (and actually get) the best years of someones career? Here is the chance.

But how much better do you think the outfield would be defensively with Calhoun/trout/heyward versus Gordon/cespedes/upton then trout and Calhoun? I haven't seen this fan graphs article but I'll take your word on it. With that said I'd rather have Gordon, cespedes or uptons bat in the line up at a lesser price and slightly lesser defense in the outfield.

[AngelsLakersFan]

That's still an absurd amount of money, for 200 mil you should be looking at an mvp caliber player. Guys like Kevin keirmaier play great defense and he won't get 1/4th of that money.

 

We should go get Kevin Keirmaier then... Oh wait we can't get him. If you are uncomfortable with your team giving out $200 million contracts then go start following a doormat penny pinching team like the Marlins... although even they just gave $325 MILLION to Stanton. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

The upgrade defensively seems a little overblown imo largely because we already have a GG in right field. By having Heyward in right your defense in RF is just about the same as it would be with Calhoun there still. While putting Calhoun in left field is barely an upgrade over someone like Cespedes, Upton or Gordon. The difference those players bring to the plate would provide a more marginal upgrade than what Heyward brings offensively imo. As for his contract it seems like he'll get something around 8-10/160-200. 

 

 

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-sabermetrics-analysis/2015/10/26/9610954/st-louis-cardinals-free-agents-what-might-jason-heywards-contract-look-like

 

In all honesty, after watching both players play extensively, and loving what Calhoun does in the field, I can say with certainty that Heyward is a much better defensive RFer than Calhoun. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

But how much better do you think the outfield would be defensively with Calhoun/trout/heyward versus Gordon/cespedes/upton then trout and Calhoun? I haven't seen this fan graphs article but I'll take your word on it. With that said I'd rather have Gordon, cespedes or uptons bat in the line up at a lesser price and slightly lesser defense in the outfield.

 

My guess would be about 10-15 runs better defensively, which will win you one or two more games per season. Of course offense matters too, and Hayward is a good bet to be as good or even a better hitter than all of those guys. 

[Chuck]

An outfield of Heyward, Trout and Calhoun would boast the best overall outfield in baseball IMO. 

[ettin]

An outfield of Heyward, Trout and Calhoun would boast the best overall outfield in baseball IMO.

Oh I see now you're the one that dropped the virus in my computer to take an early look at the outfield section of my Primer you big jerk!

[Cdaniel]

Oh I see now you're the one that dropped the virus in my computer to take an early look at the outfield section of my Primer you big jerk!

Are we going to see this Primer before we sign Heyward?

[OregonLAA]

An outfield of Heyward, Trout and Calhoun would boast the best overall outfield in baseball IMO.

Put Philips at 2nd and we have the best defense in baseball

[Second Base]

If Heyward is in LF, Bandy and Perez share duties at catcher, Cowart plays 3B and they get a half way decent 2B, it would be one of the better defenses in the last decade or two, certainly better than any I can specifically remember.

[beatlesrule]

Please don't assume I think Heyward is a sure thing for being worth whatever his contract ends up getting. I'm simply pointing out the youth and defense factor with an upside to his offense. If you are looking for perfect fits, Heyward is it.

Edited November 20, 2015 by beatlesrule