2016 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Primer Part IV First Base

[AngelsWin.com]

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Staff Writer --

First Base

Author’s Note - Player data displayed was pulled on September 25th, 2015.

Not much has, did, or will change in regards to 1B, as Albert Pujols still has a lock on the position for 2016.

Looking forward, into next year, Cron will likely back him up from time to time but C.J. is probably slated to spend a majority of his time at DH. Of course we should still have Navarro as a primary reserve in case Albert is injured.

Although Efren doesn’t have the power that Pujols has, he does have good contact skills from the left side of the plate and his defense is outstanding, as he is the recipient of three Minor League Gold Gloves at 1B.

To get a better idea of how they compare let’s apply the standard set of offensive metrics we used to evaluate the catchers, starting with ISO:

Here, of course, Albert still shines as expected. His consistent ability to hit for power is the reason why he’ll continue to be in the middle of the order for the next couple of years despite dips in performance.

Cron, too, has the ability to hit for big power and at 25 years old he’s entering the maturity range where a lot of players finish filling out physically. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him have a solid year in 2016.

Efren, as was stated above, is, at best, a 10 HR guy in a full year. However, if he did play full-time, he’d likely rake 20-30 doubles across a complete MLB season.

Here is their walk to strikeout ratios over the same time period:

The striking thing from this visual is Pujols decline in walk rate in recent years.

Albert used to consistently top double digits in walk percentage but during his last year with the Cardinals he stumbled a bit and has maintained a significant decline since 2012.

C.J. has a pretty strong history of college and Minor League on-base skills, primarily due to his contact ability, and you’d have to think that there is potential to improve in the near future. Of course this may very well be his ceiling too.

Navarro actually has a decent walk rate and strike out rate. Between the walks and strikeouts, in combination with his contact ability, he gets on-base at a surprisingly good rate.

The bottom line is that Efren is a reliable contact bat off the bench.

Finally let’s take a look at the last five years of the trio’s wRC+:

The first take away from that graph is that Albert Pujols has clearly declined since 2013. Whether that was related, in whole or in part, to his plantar fasciitis is unclear but it is troubling nevertheless. Age is probably the primary culprit.

Fortunately Mr. Pujols did smack 40 home runs and drive in 95 RBI’s this year so all is certainly not lost especially in the near-term future.

The “Machine” certainly has shown stretches where he demolishes the ball so we can only hope that he is able to stay healthy and maintain his production out of the position in 2016.

One other big takeaway from the graph is how close all three have been over the last two years.

Now to be fair Navarro and Cron have played a majority of their games in the offensively charged Pacific Coast League so the comparison is certainly not oranges to oranges. Still the tightly packed lines are a bit surprising to see.

These days Pujols and Cron’s games are looking pretty similar: lower on-base skills combined with significant power. Navarro is the opposite especially against RHP.

Unsurprisingly to the author, but probably not as well recognized by the Angels fan base, Efren Navarro, when playing regularly, has a pretty consistent OPS line in the Minors which hasn’t translated as well to his infrequent, periodic visits to the Majors.

Navarro isn’t a power hitter but he uses his strong contact skills to spray singles and doubles to all fields, particularly against RHP. As a defense-first backup player on a big market team he has value.

Still it’s partially comforting knowing that if Pujols were to get injured that there won’t be quite as dramatic a drop off in production as you might expect there to be.

Now certainly Pujols, when healthy, has the greatest potential, currently, to impact the Angels offense.

Cron may turn that corner eventually where he, too, provides Pujols-like numbers but that remains to be proven and seen.

Efren will continue to provide that under-the-radar production, especially defensively, that simply doesn’t garner the attention it deserves.

Educated Guess – Albert Pujols isn’t going anywhere for the time being. It is possible he will have some type of surgery or intense therapy on his feet this offseason as he was playing injured for the last month of the season but details on this subject are few and far between.

With Cron and Navarro as backup/reserve players at first base there isn’t a critical need to sign a free agent first baseman or even trade for one.

That being said depth is always a good thing so if the opportunity to acquire a Minor League prospect or even MLB player presented itself surely the Angels, if they have the roster space, would jump at the opportunity.

There is an offseason scenario where Cron could be moved in trade for a frontline starting pitcher. If that were to happen the Angels would likely trade for a DH type such as Khris Davis, Carlos Santana, or Adam Lind.

The reason that Cron might be involved in a trade is because at least two teams that have young, starting pitching also happen to need a power bat so this is something to keep an eye on through the remainder of the Hot Stove season.

Author’s Choice – Albert Pujols (100+ games) and C.J. Cron (40+ games)

If Cron is involved in an offseason trade the author would like to see the Angels acquire Khris Davis from the Brewers to DH/1B.

In the next section we’ll discuss Second Base.

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[ten ocho recon scout]

Youre gonna keep teasing us with these little tastes every week arent you? Sadist!

Good piece, yet again, ettin

[AngelsLakersFan]

Not to be critical but there is almost no use to comparing stats compiled the the major leagues at Angels stadium to those compiled in the PCL.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Also I should add that this discussion of first base lacks any mention of what I think is the biggest issue, and that is Albert Pujols' inability to stay on the field, and CJ Cron's inability to play anything even resembling defense at first base. I do not think this team can live with 75+ games from CJ Cron at first base.

[ettin]

Not to be critical but there is almost no use to comparing stats compiled the the major leagues at Angels stadium to those compiled in the PCL.

 

 

Also I should add that this discussion of first base lacks any mention of what I think is the biggest issue, and that is Albert Pujols' inability to stay on the field, and CJ Cron's inability to play anything even resembling defense at first base. I do not think this team can live with 75+ games from CJ Cron at first base.

 

ALF,

 

I very clearly noted that Cron's and Navarro's PCL numbers would skew the comparison and it was not oranges to oranges as I put it. There is value in seeing what levels they performed at but the comparison is obviously not quite as useful. I am using these graphics simply to show what writing multiple paragraphs would take and in the second Primer article I specifically brought up the Minors vs Majors comparison and tell the reader to adjust accordingly.

 

Certainly I didn't dive deep into the defensive comparison because a) defensive statistics aren't fully reliable as is often discussed on this board and what choice do the Angels have with a declining Pujols tied up in several more years of contractual obligation versus a young hitter who clearly isn't a defense first type of player in Cron. Not sure if there was even any value mentioning it to be honest because what can we do from a 25-man roster perspective that is going to change the situation?

 

To be fair I discuss defense a bit more in other sections but I purposely left it out of the graphs because of their "shakiness" and finding numbers for the Minor Leaguer's isn't as easy as I'd like it to be.

 

The Angels could trade Cron and trade for another 1B/DH type but there aren't many out there. You could maybe take someone like Khris Davis of the Brewers and his fringy LF defense and move him to 1B and see what he does but there is some risk built in to that too.

 

Ultimately I think Cron sees about 40-60 games at 1B potentially. It's just something I think we'll have to live with because finding a quality defender who can also hit at 1B seems like a misallocation of resources in this particular offseason?

Edited October 31, 2015 by ettin

[ABC]

IMO, Cron has markedly improved his defense at 1B.

[Second Base]

Not sure about the trade Cron idea. He really has no value right now because he hasn't hit for a full season but is also now too old to garner prospect status. I think trading him at his current value would be idiotic.

Next year, he might hit .270 and 30 HR's and his value would skyrocket. Or he could flame out and his value would be only slightly lower than it is right now.

[ettin]

Not sure about the trade Cron idea. He really has no value right now because he hasn't hit for a full season but is also now too old to garner prospect status. I think trading him at his current value would be idiotic.

Next year, he might hit .270 and 30 HR's and his value would skyrocket. Or he could flame out and his value would be only slightly lower than it is right now.

 

As I mentioned the only way he gets moved is for the right pitcher from a team that is demanding him. You're right that his value isn't fully established, I agree. However he does have 5 years of team control and ended the last 2 months of the season on a strong note so other teams might like what they see.

 

There are a couple of very specific teams that make me think that it has the possibility of happening especially if you consider the way the offseason is likely to play out for the Angels. But it takes two to tango and those other teams will be in negotiation with several other clubs so its a long shot. I'll discuss it more near the end of the series in my "Ideal Offseason Moves".

[HaloMilliVanilli]

Khris Davis is a good kid.  I know his pops (who coached me in high school) and can confirm he would be a solid clubhouse guy if acquired.  Maybe he's the left field bat we are looking for.

[nikkachez]

My only problem with Davis are his home/road splits at Miller Park. Adam Lind could be a solid addition, though.

[Second Base]

As I mentioned the only way he gets moved is for the right pitcher from a team that is demanding him. You're right that his value isn't fully established, I agree. However he does have 5 years of team control and ended the last 2 months of the season on a strong note so other teams might like what they see.

 

There are a couple of very specific teams that make me think that it has the possibility of happening especially if you consider the way the offseason is likely to play out for the Angels. But it takes two to tango and those other teams will be in negotiation with several other clubs so its a long shot. I'll discuss it more near the end of the series in my "Ideal Offseason Moves".

 

I think trading him is only a possibility if a team is willing to pay for what Cron could be, or at least is likely to become, rather than what he is now.  Not sure other teams would be so willing, which makes it a long shot as you noted. 

 

I feel like this team is in need of offense in the worst sort of way, with Pujols' continual decline, the lack of value at 2B and LF, and the uncertainty at 3B.  Cron, along with Calhoun (against RH anyway) and Trout are the few bright spots in that offense.  It seems counterintuitive or perhaps even counterproductive to trade Cron.  Now granted, I think Bandy and Kubitza will give the offense a slight lift next season, but they'll need both of them PLUS a good LF/2B just to become an adequate offense. 

[Angel Oracle]

I would start 2016 with the idea of splitting 1B equally between Pujols and Cron, maybe helping to preserve Pujols' health through the 2016 season.

Cron did improve some defensively and is going to work more on it in the off-season.

Pujols is actually a solid mentor here, with solid defense for years.

Pujols has to improve significantly in RISP hitting.

Hitting behind Trout should net him overall at least 110 rbis.

Save the money for in order of need LF, back-end reliever, 2B/3B.

Edited November 1, 2015 by Angel Oracle

[gotbeer]

Just 6 more years @ $25 million+ a year.  

[Glen]

Just 6 more years @ $25 million+ a year.

It feels like he's been here six years already. I look forward to more spring training articles about how he's at 100% and feels better than he has in years.

[Ohtaniland]

Now certainly Pujols, when healthy, has the greatest potential, currently, to impact the Angels offense.

 

Pujols is playing 1B and will be batting third in the lineup.  

[Stradling]

Now certainly Pujols, when healthy, has the greatest potential, currently, to impact the Angels offense.

Pujols is playing 1B and will be batting third in the lineup.

Except when he bats 4th like he did a lot this year.