Fixing the Lineup for Next Year

[Angelsjunky]

Clearly the biggest problem the Angels need to address is offense. Of the nine lineup spots, the following players seem likely to return:

 

Pujols 1B/DH

Cron DH/1B

Aybar SS

Trout - CF

Calhoun RF

 

That leaves four positions with likely, or at least possible, upgrades. Here are the four positions with their current in-house possibilities:

 

C: Carlos Perez, Jett Bandy

2B: Johnny G, Alex Yarbrough, Taylor Featherston

3B: David Freese (free agent), Kaleb Cowart, Kyle Kubitza

LF: David Murphy, Matt Joyce, Colin Cowgill

 

This assumes David DeJesus and Shane Victorino are gone.

 

What is clear in the above is that the Angels have replacement level options for all four positions, but no one that is likely to be better than an average major leaguer - at least next year. Let's look at each, position by position.

 

CATCHER

Of the four positions, I like the idea of sticking with the in-house options most. Both Perez and Bandy look like they have the potential to be solid contributors and would be a nice tandem to hold down the position until Taylor Ward arrives in 2017-18. Perez seems to be the better defensive player, while Bandy looks like the better hitter. I suppose the one concern is that if one or the other get injured, who fills in?

 

Recommended Action: Sign a decent quad-A or minor league veteran type as AAA backup and cross our fingers.

 

SECOND BASE

This turned out just OK. Gio is pretty much the definition of "replacement player." I can't tell if Featherston never got into a groove because of irregular playing time or if he's really just this bad. Either way, with Rutledge gone (maybe not such a good move, after all) and Yarbrough stagnating in AAA, the Angels are left with either more of the same or upgrading. We don't even know how Gio will come back, but he really should be a UT guy. Featherston needs time in AAA, to say the least.

 

Recommended Action: Upgrade. Free agent options include Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, Kelly Johnson, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Emilio Bonifacio. Zobrist is the best hitter but 35 years old. Cabrera, Kendrick and Murphy are similar - average or above average major league regulars. Johnson can hit well in a platoon. Bonifacio...no thanks. I like the idea of a giving Zobrist a 2-3 year contract, or maybe Johnson one year with a platoon with Gio, with the hopes that Yarbrough wins the job by the end of the year.

 

THIRD BASE

After catcher, I like the idea of giving inhouse options a shot. I can't help but hold out hope that Kaleb Cowart could be an above average regular, and that Kyle Kubitza has a bit of Kole Calhoun in him. I could see both being a part of the Angels team for the next 5+ years. That said, they're both risky. But I just can't see re-signing David Freese as a justifiable action, and there simply aren't any good free agent options.

 

Recommended Action: Stand pat and give Cowart and Kubitza a chance.

 

LEFT FIELD

In a way, of the four positions this one is the most secure as David Murphy is a solid, league average player. Wait, but is he? In his eight full-time major league seasons he's only surpassed 2 WAR twice, 3.8 in 2012, his career year. Over the last three years, including 2015, he has totalled 0.1 fWAR. That's right. The point being, Murphy isn't an average player - he's a replacement player and needs replacing. Whether the Angels go after one of the big outfield fish--Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, or Jason Heyward--or take a more moderate approach and sign a Gerardo Parra, Colby Rasmus, Dexter Fowler, Austin Jackson, Denard Span, Alex Rios, etc-- the Angels simply MUST upgrade this position.

 

Recommended Action: The best option is going hard after Heyward. He is young (26), a great defender, a very good hitter and wtih some room to improve. If they overpay for him it gives them excuse to re-open talks with Trout and extend him into his 30s. They could move Calhoun to LF and put Heyward in RF and have an outfield set for 5+ years. If they miss out on Heyward, Cespedes is a good choice but will be even more of an overpay, most likely. I'd stay away from Upton as he seems too erratic.

 

Barring Heyward or Cespedes, I'd go for a 1-2 year deal with someone like Denard Span. Span will be 32 next year but has a career .352 OBP and is hitting .301/.365/.421 right now and would be a solid leadoff option. Oh yeah, he's averaged over 3 WAR in 2012-15.

 

SUMMARY

So there you have it. Stand pat with catcher and third base, go hard after a big outfielder like Heyward or Cespedes, and maybe try to reel in a Zobrist.

 

2016 Possible Lineup

2B Zobrist

LF Calhoun

RF Heyward/Cespedes

CF Trout

1B Pujols

DH Cron

3B Cowart/Kubitza

C Perez/Bandy

SS Aybar

 

Cheaper Alternate

LF Span

RF Calhoun

CF Trout

1B Pujols

DH Cron

2B Johnson

3B Cowart/Kubitza

C Perez/Bandy

SS Aybar

 

 

[Hollyw00d]

The in house possibilities are pretty depressing

[wopphil]

I'd be fine going with Perez as the primary catcher. If you can get Iannetta back really cheap (1/2.5), sign him to be the back up.

Second base seems the easiest to upgrade. Kendrick, Murphy and Zobrist would all be big upgrades. One of them should be a top target.

Call me crazy, but I think we need to bring back Freese. The other options just aren't great.

And we need to bring in a left fielder from outside the organization.

[Hollyw00d]

The cheap options are rather depressing as well.

Arte is gonna have to spend a shitload of money if he really wants to make this team into a contender. Dont forget, the pitching needs upgrades as well

[Guest]

It's hard to say until a GM is selected. I think that he lineup will drastically improve if the organization doesn't hire a "yes man" GM.

[seenoevil]

Getting rid of the shit hitters on this team. How many players hit under 200 or close to it this season. This crap needs to stop or the lineup will continue to have bases loaded 2 outs for a under 200 hitter. Need consistent bats thoughout the line up for opposing pitchers have to pitch to the meat of the line up

[nikkachez]

I'd sign Murphy or Zobrist to give second a jolt (although I like the idea of Johnson and Giavotella sharing time there), Freese should be re-signed at third or Uribe could be a decent one-year target, Derek Dietrich or Solarte would make nice utility infielders with Featherston stashed in Salt Lake. I like the idea of going cheaper for left field, Parra or Span would be pretty nice. I think another reliever is needed.

[TroutCron]

Murphy can rake and ia s left handed hitter. A huge need is for a leadoff hitter. Span would be good. I would rather sign a free agent backup cather and let Bandy play every day in AAA. Resign Freeze for one year if he will accept it. Sign a power arm for the pen. Also the bench could use some veteran presence.

The new GM will have a lot on his plate. Good luck to him.

Edited September 26, 2015 by TroutCron

[Blarg]

I am perfectly fine with Giavotella staying as the regular 2nd baseman and this full season should be enough for building on next season. We need a good utility player to cover the infield role to give 3rd, SS, and 2nd base a day off. Maybe that is Featherston's role to nail down in Spring Training.

 

Left field needs to be addressed with a true impact player, I do like Heyward over Cespedes. I like Calhoun's arm in right field so unless Heyward can't play left no need to make a change.  Murphy should be retained as a 4th outfielder. Pretty much everyone else that has seen time there this season can go, Victorino, DeJesus, Cowgill, etc.

 

Cowart and Kubitzka could just be the perfect solution over at 3rd and offering a 5th outfielder. 

 

Backup catcher for Perez with some framing abilities would be nice. Not sure whether Jett Bandy is the answer but there is not that much quality out there so might as well save money staying in house.

 

Just say no to Price or Cueto, that is just regression waiting to happen. I think with an improved offense and defense the pitching staff we have moving forward should be enough, just a few tweeks to the bullpen, again.

[Oz27]

If it were up to me I'd look to go big on the 2B market and look at the second-tier market for 3B and OF options, hopefully saving money for a bullpen upgrade. Kendrick might be the most attractive 2B option but Zobrist, Murphy and Cabrera would all be significant upgrades too. Giavotella is an entirely unacceptable solution as a regular 2B and we absolute must move on from it, to upgrade both offensively and defensively. It wouldn't surprise me if we went hard on a Heyward or Cespedes type but guys like Parra or Span would be better bets, I think. As far as 3B goes, a one-year deal for Juan Uribe would make a ton of sense. He's probably better than Freese but should be cheaper and it would give us more time to assess if Kubitza or Cowart are legitimate starting options at the MLB level, because both are probably still inconclusive. This might not be as flashy as some would like, but I'd be happy with something like this...

 

Span

Calhoun

Trout

Pujols

Zobrist/Kendrick/Murphy/Cabrera

Cron

Uribe

Perez/Bandy

Aybar

 

Another option if we don't have the money for a 3B, which admittedly is a distant third in terms of our most pressing needs, is to just go to spring training with an open competition. Primarily that could include Cowart and Kubitza but given there are a handful of other internal possibilities (Green, Featherston and Giavotella all have 3B experience) and we could potentially look for low-end options on the trade market, that could work too as long as we boost the offense enough in other areas.

[gurn67]

Wieters might be worth a flyer on a 1 year deal since he's probably not going to get a qualifying offer. He's absolutely mashed at the Big A in his career, and I'm sure he's probably going to be looking for a 1 year deal to re-establish his value.

[KevinJ14]

Sign A-Rod.

[Halos of Anaheim]

I'm in the sign Heyward or bust group. I still think he has his best years ahead of him offensively, and his defense is top notch. He's worth losing a 1st round pick for. 

 

If we can get him, a serviceable defensive 2B that can get on base should be enough. A bullpen addition or two as well. 

Edited September 26, 2015 by Halos of Anaheim

[Angelsjunky]

Jason Heyward reminds me a bit of Dwight Evans. Evans was a merely good hitter but great defender in his 20s and then had a breakout season offensively at age 29. I wouldn't be surprised to see Heyward take a big step forward with the bat, maybe at age 27 or 28.

[Second Base]

Because of his age and potential upside, Heyward will likely cost 8 years and almost 200 million. Yeah it makes sense because he solves a lot of problems and is young, but I'm just not convinced Arte will she'll out any more long contracts to FA. He's been burned and will be a little gun shy. It seems the Angels problems are less attributed to an inability to drive in runs as much it is their inability to reach base and get into scoring position. Scioscia for whatever reason, refuses to straight steal anymore.

So I think they'll go the cheaper route and bring back Murphy as a 4th OF and bat off the bench (he protects in case Cron stops hitting again) as well as Span to lead off.

I think Bandy moves into a platoon role at C with Perez. This will actually be an upgrade as Bandy is solid defensively, very athletic, is a favorite among pitchers and offers similar offensive upside to Iannetta.

Third base should go to Kubitza, as he brings the highest offensive value without sacrificing too much on defense. Kubitza can end up with the most doubles and second highest OBP on this team, which doesn't say much. Cowart is an amazing defender, but I just don't see him hitting MLB pitching with any regularity.

Finally, I think Kendrick comes back on a relatively friendly deal. I know Howie's big on family and was pleased with the chance to stay in So-Cal after being dealt to the Dodgers. If given the chance to return to the Angels and the money being similar, I think he signs. Giavotella is likable, but Kendrick is both an upgrade offensively and defensively.

As far as the pitching staff goes, I think it lines up as Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Wilson and Weaver until Newcomb and Ellis force their way in. The Angels will also sign a proven veteran to handle the 6th/7th innings. Gott and Morin should be fine, but the Angels need depth.

So I think it'll be...

LF Span, RF Calhoun CF Trout DH Pujols 2B Kendrick 1B Cron SS Aybar 3B Kubitza C Perez

BENCH: C Bandy, OF Murphy OF Cowgill, IF Featherston

ROTATION: Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Wilson, Weaver

BULLPEN: Street, Smith, _____, Gott, Morin, Ramos, Alvarez

[Blarg]

If you are pulling Shoemaker from the rotation you have your spare bullpen arm.

[Angelsjunky]

Good stuff Scotty, not a lot to disagree with. I'm a bit more hopeful about Cowart, though. He may just take a bit to adjust to the majors, but I could see a .250-.270 hitter with 15-20 HR which, combined with excellent defense, makes him a 3+ WAR player. Maybe I'm being too optimistic.

 

Actually, it is worth pointing out that the Angels aren't just bad at OBP and steals, but slugging as well. They are 15th in AL OBP and 14th in AL SLG. My worry with your lineup is that it just doesn't have enough firepower. Maybe if Cron improves and Kubitza surprises, but I'd like to see a second plus bat after Trout. everyone else is mediocre to above average, but nothing more. The Angels need a second 130+ OPS+ bat.

[Angelsjunky]

Presumably Santiago is traded, Scotty?

[Halos of Anaheim]

Because of his age and potential upside, Heyward will likely cost 8 years and almost 200 million. Yeah it makes sense because he solves a lot of problems and is young, but I'm just not convinced Arte will she'll out any more long contracts to FA. He's been burned and will be a little gun shy. It seems the Angels problems are less attributed to an inability to drive in runs as much it is their inability to reach base and get into scoring position. Scioscia for whatever reason, refuses to straight steal anymore.

So I think they'll go the cheaper route and bring back Murphy as a 4th OF and bat off the bench (he protects in case Cron stops hitting again) as well as Span to lead off.

I think Bandy moves into a platoon role at C with Perez. This will actually be an upgrade as Bandy is solid defensively, very athletic, is a favorite among pitchers and offers similar offensive upside to Iannetta.

Third base should go to Kubitza, as he brings the highest offensive value without sacrificing too much on defense. Kubitza can end up with the most doubles and second highest OBP on this team, which doesn't say much. Cowart is an amazing defender, but I just don't see him hitting MLB pitching with any regularity.

Finally, I think Kendrick comes back on a relatively friendly deal. I know Howie's big on family and was pleased with the chance to stay in So-Cal after being dealt to the Dodgers. If given the chance to return to the Angels and the money being similar, I think he signs. Giavotella is likable, but Kendrick is both an upgrade offensively and defensively.

As far as the pitching staff goes, I think it lines up as Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Wilson and Weaver until Newcomb and Ellis force their way in. The Angels will also sign a proven veteran to handle the 6th/7th innings. Gott and Morin should be fine, but the Angels need depth.

So I think it'll be...

LF Span, RF Calhoun CF Trout DH Pujols 2B Kendrick 1B Cron SS Aybar 3B Kubitza C Perez

BENCH: C Bandy, OF Murphy OF Cowgill, IF Featherston

ROTATION: Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Wilson, Weaver

BULLPEN: Street, Smith, _____, Gott, Morin, Ramos, Alvarez

 

Going full retard and giving $$$ to old, injured guys with holes in their swing in Wells/Pujols/Hamilton shouldn't deter Arte in signing a young, healthy Heyward. In Heywards case, his best is yet to come -- whereas Wells/Pujols/Hamilton were long gone their glory days.

[Second Base]

Preaching to the choir HoA.  Heyward's best years are in front of him and would be a rare Free Agent find. We know this, but so do 29 other teams.  Sure, the Angels can afford to add another 25 million to their payroll.  When you figure in arb costs and Freese-Iannetta being gone, it only puts the Angels 10 million over the Luxury Tax.  The penalty would be minimal anyway because of the 40 million we're cutting from Wilson and Weav after next season and another 30 million after that with Hamilton. 

 

That's common sense talking right there.  But Arte Moreno is not common sense.  I don't see anyone convincing him to go over the Luxury Tax line. Which is why I think they'll cut a couple more million with guys like Giavotella, Santiago and Shoe brining the available finds to 20 million and with those available funds they'll sign Kendrick for 10 million and Span for 10 million. 

[QuinlansMinion]

In Heywards case, his best is yet to come --.

I like how people keep making this assumption every year.

[Streetkid]

Me too. His career ops+ is 113 which is exactly where he's at this year. How does that get you 25mil/per?

[Hollyw00d]

Age, defense, baserunning and his upside on offense.

He definitely could put it all together and start elevating the ball more and improve the power numbers. Even if he doesn't, he is still an above average hitter

[Stradling]

He is a 26 year old free agent that has been above average throughout his career. He is a plus plus defender and can bat anywhere from 1-5 in a good line up. All that turns him into a $25 million player. If you gave him eight years you'd only have him through his age 33 season. Give him 9 years $189 and see if he bites. Make it front loaded if it makes you feel better. It won't affect the luxury tax, but it might affect how you feel about him as he starts to decline.

[QuinlansMinion]

Me too. His career ops+ is 113 which is exactly where he's at this year. How does that get you 25mil/per?

If Heyward is a 25 mil per year player, so is Howie Kendrick.