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Kirk Nieuwenhuis has hit 3 HR today


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In all seriousness on the statistical unlikelihood question:

 

Prior to today, he had zero HR in 73 PA.  So that's a 0% chance (based on this year's statistics alone) to get a home run in any AB, period.  Much less to do it thrice (0 x 0 x 0 = 0)

 

Career, he had 13 home runs in 625 plate appearances.  That's a home run for every 2.08% of his plate appearances.  Yeah, I didn't expect it to be that high, either.

 

To get three home runs in a row would be a chance of one in 111,125.  To do it in three of four plate appearances reduces the unlikelihood a bit to one in 27,839 (that would be the chance of HR, HR, HR and not-HR occurring in any order).  

 

For comparison, Trout has an average of a home run every 4.83% of his plate appearances.  His chances to hit 3 HR in 4 PA would be one in 2,333.   To hit 3 HR in 3 consecutive AB would be one in 8,882.

 

Giavotella has 7 HR in 789 AB before today, a HR chance below 1%.  His chances therefore would be one in 1,431,980 to do it in 3 consecutive AB, or one in 361,200 to get 3 HR in 4 PA.  

Edited by hen3ry
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What were the odds of Adam Kennedy doing that in the game the put us into the WS, while being asked to bunt?

I'll take your answer off the air...

 

.. About the same as the chance of Matt Joyce hitting three home runs at the all star game this year.

 

It could happen.  Several hundred big leaguers could come down with food poisoning this afternoon. 

 

Adding in the requirement of "in a game that really matters" and "player was asked to bunt but failed first" to "player not known for his power in the first place" turns it from the merely unlikely to the stuff of legends.  

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.. About the same as the chance of Matt Joyce hitting three home runs at the all star game this year.

It could happen. Several hundred big leaguers could come down with food poisoning this afternoon.

Adding in the requirement of "in a game that really matters" and "player was asked to bunt but failed first" to "player not known for his power in the first place" turns it from the merely unlikely to the stuff of legends.

Agree. Except for the part about some random player from the Royals system not being named.
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Agree. Except for the part about some random player from the Royals system not being named.

 

Well, c'mon.  Who really deserves to be in the all star game more - someone playing right now in Omaha, or Joyce?   Clearly it's the Omahan.  And what a great moment it will be to see several Omahans making their major league debut in the all-star game.

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