Trout: 2012-13 vs. 2014-15 & the Ghost of Griffey

[Angelsjunky]

You don't need to look at the statistics to know that Mike Trout isn't the same player in 2014-15 as he was in 2012-13. He's still a great player, but he seems diminished somehow. The most obvious statistics are Batting Average and Stolen Bases. Let's compare these through those four years, with this year's stolen base total prorated to 155 games played.

 

BA: .326, .323, .287, .284

SB: 49, 33, 16, 23

 

To put that another way, in 2012-13 he hit .324 and average 41 stolen bases a year. In 2014-15 he's hitting .287 and averaging 20 stolen bases a year. That's an almost 40 point drop in batting average and half as many steals.

 

But what about his power, you say? His Isolated Power - which is SLG minus AVG - has gone up during that span. Here are the four years:

 

ISO: .238, .234, .274, .260

 

So clearly Trout has sacrificed average and speed for power. Unfortunately, the results have seen an overall decline: from a 10 fWAR player to about an 8 fWAR player. Usually we wouldn't complain about an 8 WAR player--consider, for instance, the historical average for 8 fWAR seasons is about two per year--and regardless of what happens going forward, Trout is still a great player and if no longer head-and-shoulders above everyone else, still among the best in the game. But not "no longer head-and-shoulders above everyone else" smarts a bit, and I for one would like to understand why.

 

Clearly he isn't 2012-13 Trout, and if you're like me you have a sligh sense of loss. So what happened? What is the difference between 2012-13 Trout and 2014-15 Trout? As I started with, the obvious answers are speed and average. But are there any other markers?

 

I'm sure there are plenty, but I wanted to look up one in particular: multi-hit games. I looked at Trout's four seasons and determined how many games he was hitless, had one hit, two, three, and four hits. Here is what I came up with:

 

*The number of games Trout had at least one hit has remained relatively consistent. Over four years: 75.5%, 76.4%, 70.1%, and 72.3%. So there was a slight drop in 2014, but a slight rise in 2015 - but not quite to 2012-13 levels. So clearly Trout is going hitless more often, but not drastically so.

 

*When we get to multi-hit games, we see a stronger pattern of decline: 40.3%, 35%, 31.8%, 25.5%. First of all, let's think about that first number. In Trout's rookie year he had at least 2 hits in an incredible 40% of his games played. And then it has dropped from there, quite radically so. To put that another way, this year Trout has 63% the percentage of multi-hit games as he did his rookie season.

 

*When we get to games in which he had at least 3 hits, there's a drop-off from 2012 to 2013, but it has been pretty even since: 11.5%, 6.4%, 7.6%, 7.3%. Given that 2013 was as great as 2012, we can't blame his decline in 2014-15 on a lack of 3+ games.

 

Looking at the above, we see that Trout started going hitless more after 2013, but has improved upon 2014 this year - presumably directly related to his better strikeout rate. But more striking is the decline in multi-hit games, from 40.3% in 2012 to 25.5% this year. Trout simply isn't having nearly as many multi-hit games.

 

Another relevant stat worth looking into that is directly related to speed: infield hits. Trout went from 25 infield hits in 2012 to 34 in 2013 to 23 in 2014 and 6 this year so far. If we look at those as a percentage relative to total games played, we get: 17.9%, 21.7%, 14.6%, and 10.9%. Again, a clear pattern of decline, but peaking in 2013 and falling sharply from there.

 

But speed alone isn't enough to account for Trout's overall decline. If you bring his 2014-15 infield hits up to the levels of 2012-13, his BA in 2014-15 does go back over .300, but still quite a bit below his 2012-13 levels.

 

But clearly speed is a primary factor. Anything else? Well I think the correlating rise in power. Trout is trying to hit more home runs in recent years and is doing so, but at quite a cost. It would be interesting to know his weight over the four years, but it would make sense that he's added muscle, which has increased his power but decreased his speed.

 

Is there anything that can or might happen? Well, at some point Trout has to look at his numbers and ask what kind of hitter he wants to be, with a few options:

 

.285, 35+ HR, 20 SB

.300, 30-35 HR, 30 SB

.320, 25-30 HR, 40 SB

 

I personally prefer the last, which I feel is not only statistically equal to or greater than both of the first two, but has a greater "collateral impact" in terms of how dynamic Trout was. But my guess is that the ship has sailed on that version. But maybe he finds a happy medium, as represented by the middle option, I don't know. He seems to follow the lead of Albert Pujols, who also has sacrificed his overall game for love of the long ball.

 

Trout is still only 23, so it may be that he takes another step forward at some point and is able to combine the power of 2014-15 with the average of 2012-13. In other words, we can hope for a mythical .320, 35+ HR, 30 SB version of Mike Trout, but it may be too much to ask.

 

I'm actually reminded a bit of Ken Griffey Jr, who had his highest average year in his third year at the age of 21. After his fourth year, in 1992, it looked like Griffey was going to be more of a high average, good-but-not-great power hitter, but then his HR rate exploded in 1993 - along with the rest of the majors. Griffey managed to combine the best of both for several years, hitting over .300 and 45+ HR, but then in 1998 - at the age of 28 - his batting average began to slip. He hung on as a great player for a couple more years, but was in clear decline by the time he was 30 or so. He played another ten years but struggled with injury and was never the same player that he was in his early and mid-20s.

 

Clearly Trout is a different player than Griffey, but there are enough similarities that Mike should take note. Home runs are great, but a player has to look at the cost - and so far with Trout, the cost has outweighed the benefit.

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

I'm pretty sure Trout analyzes every AB with the approach of what player he wants to be.

[seenoevil]

Yawn

[Troll Daddy]

Trout is heavily scouted ... it's not surprising to see his average drop. Trout appears to be bigger and stronger ... it's not surprising to see his HR's total go up. The running game has slowed down ... but not a huge concern if he stays healthy and avoids injury.

 

It's really that easy ... I don't think Trout is purposely trying to hit HR's. It's just a natural progression with his size. I think 40 HR's is in his future without really trying.

[Second Base]

Something else we're ignoring in reference to multi-hit games, Trouty was pitched to in 2012 and 2013.  2014?  Not so much, they'd either walk him or offer him a steady diet of fastballs up in the zone, which he clearly had a hard time laying off.  2015?  He isn't swinging at those fastballs up in the zone any more, and thus his k rates are dropping, but no team has ANY reason to pitch to him. 

 

Because of the Angels inability to protect him in the lineup, teams have forced Trout into a middle of the order mentality.  Not creating runs with multi-hit games and wreaking havoc on the bases.  Instead, with no one in the lineup doing much of anything, he's had to act as the big bat.  Trout would probably prefer to play the way he did.  But Dipoto's inability to infuse talent around him has forced him into this role.

 

Right now he's on pace for .284/.377 33 DB 42 HR and 24 SB.  Not bad, but he could be better in the right circumstance.  

[Angelsjunky]

True, Scotty, but great players find a way - they don't worry about protection.

 

But yeah, I was clear to say that Trout is still great. Just not 2012-13 great.

 

(As I write this Trout just hit a dong)

[Second Base]

I'm willing to bet pitchers aren't throwing him as many strikes, he isn't going oppo as often because he's trying to kill and and when he actually does get a strike, I'm willing to bet a higher percentage of them are breaking balls. 

[mulwin444]

The offense is shit so there is less opportunities for him to hit with runners on base where pitchers are usually at a disadvantage. The OBP of batters hitting in front of him (slots 6-1) is under .300 so he's basically trying to create offense on his own every time he's up

[HaloFan85]

The one thing I noticed about Trout this season, and as far back as probably two seasons ago, is that he's been swinging for the fences every AB.  I mean I could be wrong, but didn't he say during his first full season in 2012 that he never went to the plate looking to hit a home run and that he only looked to drive the ball?  Now it seems that all he's looking for is to hit a HR.

 

On a side note, so far this season on the renewed Trout/Harper comparisons, Harper only has 3 more runs scored and two more base hits than Trout in spite of hitting 50 points higher and having an OBP 100 points higher.

[NrM]

I don't think your post garnished much interest because of how early in the season it is.  His OPS has climbed 54 points in the 6 games since. I believe he's on pace for a WAR close to 10 right now.

The lack of steals has been an issue, but I don't think his approach at the plate has anything to do with it.

Edited June 13, 2015 by Poozy

[Lou]

i think he's good

[Lou]

Something else we're ignoring in reference to multi-hit games, Trouty was pitched to in 2012 and 2013.  2014?  Not so much, they'd either walk him or offer him a steady diet of fastballs up in the zone, which he clearly had a hard time laying off.   

this is the first thing that came to mind when i started reading the OP.

 

still, good job with the breakdowns, aj.   

[LAAFANofLA]

crazy. he went 3/3 tonight with a no doubter

[stevestevens]

I think he is good enough to stick in the league for a couple more years.

[wopphil]

He is on pace for another top 2 MVP finish. 4 top 2 finishes in his first 4 seasons would be unheard of. Nobody in the last 40 years or so has come anywhere close to doing that.

[beatlesrule]

Ken Griffey Jr. is my favorite player. I'm convinced that he would be the home run king and have even more records if he was able to stay healthy. Trout is on his way to being one of the best but he has a ways to go in terms of matching Griffey Jr. He definitely will never have as pretty a swing.

[OregonLAA]

I know it's early but who would be up there for MVP voting right now? Fielder? Altuve? Josh Donaldson probably? There is a good chance Trout wins again. It's insane

[Guest]

I know it's early but who would be up there for MVP voting right now? Fielder? Altuve? Josh Donaldson probably? There is a good chance Trout wins again. It's insane

 

Based on WAR Donaldson, Trout, and Kipnis are virtually tied. However, according to disaffected Yankees fans MLB has a strong west coast bias, so it will likely go to Trout or Donaldson. 

Edited June 13, 2015 by ScottLux

[nate]

I am sure that scouting plays a big part.  It took a while for pitchers to stop throwing down in the zone against him.

[bloodbrother]

Right now, Donaldson is probably the main threat for MVP. Fielder and MCab are in the conversation as well. Again, it will come down to team success like it often does in these awards. Trout's numbers will be there, but if the Angels miss the playoffs he'll be passed over by somebody with good stats on a playoff team

Edited June 13, 2015 by bloodbrother

[CaliAngel]

He definitely will never have as pretty a swing.

 

PFFFFFF!! *spits out coffee*

 

EXCUSE ME?

 

I for one, think Trouts swing is spectacular.

[beatlesrule]

Griffey Jr. has the prettiest swing all of time.

[seenoevil]

 

NEVER DOUBT TROUT

Edited June 13, 2015 by seenoevil

[Hollyw00d]

Subway

[beatlesrule]

Subway

Eat fresh.