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Good Times in Ukraine and Russia


Lhalo

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6 minutes ago, Don said:

Obviously the only hope the Ukrainians have in a hot war situation are a prolonged insurgency situation, or holding out long enough to get support from a more significant military power (or group of powers) to leverage the situation in their favor. The former situation means a ton of death and destruction over quite a bit of time, and the latter probably ends in a negotiated peace at best. If I'm a Russian strategist right now, I'd be hoping the border buildup leads to Ukraine coming to the table to make some serious concessions in order to avoid either of the above situations. 

Right, and like I said.  I sincerely believe that there will be no active military intervention from the west on behalf of Ukraine.  It simply cannot happen.  The French and Germans don’t want it.  No one other than the sicko hawks in Britain  are going along with it.  I don’t believe that the US public will tolerate any war.  It’s just bordering inconceivable.  
 

And 100% right.  Even without western intervention.  It would be a horrible affair for the Russians.  We don’t really think about this enough but Russia has its own internal politics as well.  Putin knows that the Russian public isn’t going to go with an intense war with Ukraine and the massive loss of life that would come with it.  None of it makes sense if you’re not Warhawk freak. 

Edited by UndertheHalo
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2 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

It would be incredibly foolish and I doubt it will happen as well.  But I think Russian invasion is even more unlikely.  There aren’t really hidden cards here.  Everyone knows it would be a fucking disaster.  The Ukrainians can’t possibly hope to defeat the Russians.  They’d be bordering insane to actually believe that NATO will come to their aid in a real way.  It’s not going to happen.  
 

for me, the more realistic scenario is that some of these hyper nationalist Ukrainians militias that I doubt the Ukrainian government controls well will go rogue and that situation could spin out of control.  It is a dangerous situation. 

 

This is the more likely scenario.  Some Kiev Ukrainian nationalist organization goes into the heavily populated Russian section and blows up a Russian grocery store or something like that.  Russia says that their people are being targeted, and rolls right in.  

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15 hours ago, Lou said:

So, when is this thing supposed to start? 

 

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The US expects the invasion to begin next week, six US and Western officials tell me, as Secretary of State Antony @SecBlinken said last night.

You're welcome.

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