Freeman Contract (and what it means to Trout)

[Hubs]

If Trout wants to test free agency before the age of thirty why would he accept an 8 year deal at the age of 23?

 

He's going into his age 22 season. The 8 year deal would cover his 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, & 30 seasons. So yes, he'd be 30… if they extended him after next year for 8 years.

[Hubs]

On the bottom here, it lists the largest AAV contracts by service Class, Trout is at 2 years of service now.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

[AngelsLakersFan]

It seems like the floor of free agent contracts is going up much higher than the ceiling.

 

Luxury tax aside, Trout's value can't get much higher - even if he puts together another 10 WAR season. He's already established a level that is just about unparalleled, so he's going to bust the bank no matter what. The question is to what degree.

 

I don't think Trout will get $60M in arbitration for three years. $50M, maybe. I could see something like this:

 

2015 (arb1): $12M

2016 (arb2): $18M

2017 (arb3): $20M

2018 (FA): $25M

2019 (FA): $25M

2020 (FA): $30M

2021 (FA): $30M

2022 (FA): $35M

2023 (FA): $35M

2024 (FA): $35M

 

You put a player option out after 2021, so its either: 7/$160M or 10/$265M.

 

I'm also hoping the Angels give him a feel-good raise this year, maybe $3-5M for 2014. Let the kid buy his parents a new house.

 

Trout is going to get huge money - more than most people here predict - unless the Angels offer him a deal soon, and he's interested in taking it.

 

If he reaches free agency he is probably looking at a long term deal worth $35m+ a year with an opt out clause 5 or so years in. No team is comfortable paying him what he is really worth, so he'll be getting huge security in any deal he signs.

[AngelsLakersFan]

AJ - nice synopsis on Trout and his comps. 

 

One thing I think needs to be considered is the potential sustainability of his BABIP.  A big part of that right now is speed based.  Not all of it, but a decent portion.  As we know, speed doesn't last forever.  He will likely always be pretty damn quick and fast, but I have to wonder how much longer he's going to have the absolute elite speed that he has. 

 

That said, factoring in his age creates a whole different scenario.  It's scary to think that a lot of what he is doing is being accomplished with raw ability as opposed to experience.  At some point, the ability and experience curves are going to intersect. 

So perhaps he can sustain an unusually high BABIP going forward.  Maybe not to the .366 that he's shown currently, but perhaps above .350. 

 

An interesting hitting comp for Trout is Joey Votto. 

Votto has a career .359 BABIP.  We've seen his BB rate increase to where it may have leveled off around 19%. with his k rate probably leveled off around the same.  Their avg, obp, and slg are fairly similar.  Of course Trout has a couple of distinct advantages. 

He is an excellent defender at a position that gives him additional value

He is a tremendous baserunner and even if his speed declines a bit, his experience will make up for some of that

He started producing at a very young age.  Almost three years earlier. 

 

Votto has been a fairly consistent 6-7 WAR player the last three years who has gotten dinged pretty hard for defense and baserunning ability. 

If Trout can offset a slow decline in speed with experience and sustain a similar level of offense then he should be able to produce at a similar level. 

 

There is also the potential increase in power production from Trout that I think is coming very soon.  I truly think that he's going to have a string of 30-40hr seasons.  

 

Did you see this article?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-if-mike-trout-had-average-speed/

[NrM]

Did you see this article?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-if-mike-trout-had-average-speed/

 

Good article. 

Some of those stats fangraphs uses makes my brain hurt though.

[mrwicked]

just give him 200 and be done with it.

200,000,000 years, $1 a year.

 

with a *mutual* option for 200,000,001st year at three fitty. 

[Brent Maguire]

If Trout wants to test free agency before the age of thirty why would he accept an 8 year deal at the age of 23?

How do we know he wants to test free agency?

If he's offered over 200 million dollars to stay here, is he really going to pass it up? That's a humongous, life changing decision for himself and his family.

I just can't see any situation where Trout denies a big deal from the Angels. Plus, he can still land another potentially great deal at age 31.

[HaloMagic]

How do we know he wants to test free agency?

If he's offered over 200 million dollars to stay here, is he really going to pass it up? That's a humongous, life changing decision for himself and his family.

I just can't see any situation where Trout denies a big deal from the Angels. Plus, he can still land another potentially great deal at age 31.

I agree. I was just responding to what I quoted. He said offer Trout an 8 year contract next offseason and he implied Trout would be able to sign another contract before age 30. An 8 year contract next offseason would make Trout 31.5 years old when it ends.

[Brent Maguire]

I agree. I was just responding to what I quoted. He said offer Trout an 8 year contract next offseason and he implied Trout would be able to sign another contract before age 30. An 8 year contract next offseason would make Trout 31.5 years old when it ends.

Ah I understand now.

Yeah, I think it's in the best interest for Trout to get as much money as he can. If that means 8 years, then he should do it.

Guaranteed money is better than hoping for a bigger contract later on.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Guaranteed money is better than hoping for a bigger contract later on.

 

 

Trout can get both.

Guaranteed money is better than hoping for a bigger contract later on.

[YouthofToday]

I doubt a Mike Scioscia lead team would ever let a player have the plate discipline Votto has.

Votto's battles with Baker and the media over his inability to "eat RBIs" and change is approach is legendary. Love his response to criticism he is too selective at the plate.

[gotbeer]

Guaranteed money is better than hoping for a bigger contract later on

 

He could still get a huge contract without signing for a long time.  As Weaver said when he signed.  There is only so much money that you need.  I think we can all agree that he will get paid.  All that is left is winning.  If the Angels don't start winning, and by winning I don't mean just hoping to maybe make the wildcard, then I don't know if any amount of money you throw at him will keep him here.  

[stormngt]

There is no guarantee that he will make that much money. He is one blown shoulder away from not getting his millions. Next year he is only guaranteed 500K. He won't walk away from 200 milmillion

[YouthofToday]

Weaver was a total and complete anonomly due to his brother's history in MLB and his love for SoCal.

[Angelsjunky]

AJ - nice synopsis on Trout and his comps. 

 

One thing I think needs to be considered is the potential sustainability of his BABIP.  A big part of that right now is speed based.  Not all of it, but a decent portion.  As we know, speed doesn't last forever.  He will likely always be pretty damn quick and fast, but I have to wonder how much longer he's going to have the absolute elite speed that he has. 

 

...........

 

There is also the potential increase in power production from Trout that I think is coming very soon.  I truly think that he's going to have a string of 30-40hr seasons.  

 

Ettin made a good point, that line drive % has a lot to do with BABIP (thus Votto, I think). This would mean that even if/when his speed slips--which could start happening sooner than later, albeit in very small amounts--it will partially be offset by his line drive and, as you say, a possible increase in power.

 

That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Trout go from being a .320-.330+ hitter, to a .300+ hitter in a few years. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him stick at .320+, given his incredible bat-speed. There's really no telling what he'll do, but I just look forward to watching him do it.

[ettin]

Ettin made a good point, that line drive % has a lot to do with BABIP (thus Votto, I think). This would mean that even if/when his speed slips--which could start happening sooner than later, albeit in very small amounts--it will partially be offset by his line drive and, as you say, a possible increase in power.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Trout go from being a .320-.330+ hitter, to a .300+ hitter in a few years. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him stick at .320+, given his incredible bat-speed. There's really no telling what he'll do, but I just look forward to watching him do it.

Today I saw this article on Hardball Times in regards to flyball hang time and how it relates to the likelihood of the ball being caught (Greater hang time increases the likelihood of an out but now it has been statistically analyzed): http://www.hardballtimes.com/all-fly-balls-are-not-created-equal/

I went and looked at Mike Trout's spray chart hang time and his line drive approach helps to limit his overall hang time (thus allowing his flyballs to land more often increasing his BABIP): http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF&type=battedball&pid2=10155&ss1=2013&se1=2013&ss2=2013&se2=2013&cht1=hangtime&cht2=hangtime&vs1=R&vs2=R

You'll notice a lot of his greatest flyball hang times are when he hits the ball to right field. As a comparison you can look at players like Miguel Cabrera: http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=1744&position=1B/3B&type=battedball&pid2=1744&ss1=2013&se1=2013&ss2=2013&se2=2013&cht1=hangtime&cht2=hangtime&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL and Jay Bruce: http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=9892&position=OF&type=battedball&pid2=9892&ss1=2013&se1=2013&ss2=2013&se2=2013&cht1=hangtime&cht2=hangtime&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

I should note that these hang time spray charts are for 2013 only.

A line drive approach allows the ball to pass through defenders more quickly (vs. a ground ball that has its velocity slowed by grass, dirt, etc.) and has less hang time than a typical flyball (which is more likely to be caught the longer it stays in the air). This is why players with higher line drive percentages generally have higher BABIP's.

Quality of contact can't be understated here as Trout is exceptional at pitch recognition and getting the right pitch to hit and when he does it generally lands in the field more often than other players. He is just so extremely talented at the plate way beyond most other players his age.