Why the Angels should avoid Tanaka

[Brent Maguire]

Whatever Tanaka get is going to be absurb for a pitcher with no MLB experience.

Obviously but what is the definition of absurd?

 

I don't think 120 million for him is absurd. 

 

If we're talking 150 million, then that's absolutely too much. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

FYI, if any team was going to give Garza 5/75 he'd have signed already.

I now believe he's looking at more like 3-4 years and 14ish per year, so 3/42 to 4/56. If he gets 3 it's likely got an option.

[tdawg87]

FYI, if any team was going to give Garza 5/75 he'd have signed already.

I now believe he's looking at more like 3-4 years and 14ish per year, so 3/42 to 4/56. If he gets 3 it's likely got an option.

I'd be perfectly fine with that.

[Inside Pitch]

FYI, if any team was going to give Garza 5/75 he'd have signed already.

I now believe he's looking at more like 3-4 years and 14ish per year, so 3/42 to 4/56. If he gets 3 it's likely got an option.

 

That's a deal you can live with.  Surprised that he would get less guaranteed years than a guy like Vargas, but if the Halos can get him for three years, awesome.

Edited January 14, 2014 by Inside Pitch

[Jeff Fletcher]

That's a deal you can live with. Surprised that he would get less guaranteed years than a guy like Vargas, but if the Halos can get him for three years, awesome.

Well I think 4 is more likely. And if it's 3 it's probably a higher AAV. Vargas got 4 years but the AAV is only $8M

[wopphil]

I will be shocked if Garza gets less than 60 mil.

[Angel Oracle]

It's unfortunate that unlike 2012, there likely won't be a Michael Wacha (19th pick in 2012) like college pitcher available with the 16th pick.

[Cdaniel]

Well I think 4 is more likely. And if it's 3 it's probably a higher AAV. Vargas got 4 years but the AAV is only $8M

What's the hold up on pulling the trigger on Garza? The contract seems pretty reasonable. Is because we think we have a chance at Tanaka?

[Chimi]

If the Angels can get Garza for 4 years and somewhere between $52MM-$60MM, then I don't see why they wouldn't do that.

Edited January 14, 2014 by Chimi

[VariousCrap]

FYI, if any team was going to give Garza 5/75 he'd have signed already.

I now believe he's looking at more like 3-4 years and 14ish per year, so 3/42 to 4/56. If he gets 3 it's likely got an option.

 

 

 

I was actually wondering about this, so thanks for posting it.

 

If the Angels could sign Garza for 3/42-4/56, I'd be happy about it.  The dude would be a solid #3 for that price.

[Angelsjunky]

It's unfortunate that unlike 2012, there likely won't be a Michael Wacha (19th pick in 2012) like college pitcher available with the 16th pick.

 

I thought I read somewhere that this was a deep draft coming up?

 

Even so, I still believe that with your first round pick you go for the best player available, unless the difference between the best player you need (pitcher) and the best player available (let's say a position player) is negligible. But if there's a true star-talent hitter available and only mid-rotation (#3-4) talented pitchers available, then I think you go for the hitter.

 

I have no idea about who is available in the 2014 draft, but the Angels have the 15th pick, right? Let's say there are a dozen hitters with star, or close to star, potential in the draft, and five #1-2-talent pitchers. If all five of those pitchers go before the Angels get to pick, there would still be a few excellent hitters to choose from before going into the next tier of pitching talent. I'd go for the best hitter in that situation.

 

All things being equal (or close) talent-wise you go for a pitcher, of course.

[Angelsjunky]

Garza: Its about supply and demand and the drop-off after him is considerable, at least considering that the similarly good Jimenez and Santana cost a draft pick. There's no way he gets less than 4/$60M, and even that would surprise me. 5/$70+M seems more likely.

[VariousCrap]

Even 4/60 would be fine for Garza.

 

I don't think the demand for him is high enough to drive his price higher.  For example, if the Yankees sign Tanaka, a team like the Dodgers who want Tanaka won't have any interest in Garza.  That is true for many of the teams interested in Tanaka.

Edited January 14, 2014 by Jim B

[Angelsjunky]

Again, my choice is:

 

- Say no to Tanaka because he's going to be too expensive no matter what (the lowest ball prediction would be something like 5/$100M including the posting fee, but he'll probably get more than that - maybe as much as 7/$150M?)

 

- Say no to Garza, unless he can be had for 4/$60M or less (unlikely)

 

- Chad Gaudin - could be flexible as starter or (if Richards, Skaggs, and Santiago all work out) a swingman

 

- Chris Capuano - seems like the "best of the rest"; gives insurance if one of the young guys struggles

 

Then you have:

Weaver

Wilson

Richards

Skaggs

Santiago

Gaudin/Capuano

Blanton/Shoemaker

 

Not the prettiest rotation, but some depth and a #3-5 with solid potential. If one of those three fails, the Gaudin/Capuano signing fills in. And by signing Gaudin/Capuano, you aren't forced to put one of Skaggs or Santiago in the bullpen.

[VariousCrap]

Im sorry, if Richards is your #3, you are in trouble.

 

Jerry recently said that he wants to sign a veteran starter.  That means Garza or Arroyo IMO.  You could then still sign a Capuano to give you depth.

[wopphil]

Even 4/60 would be fine for Garza.

I don't think the demand for him is high enough to drive his price higher. For example, if the Yankees sign Tanaka, a team like the Dodgers who want Tanaka won't have any interest in Garza. That is true for many of the teams interested in Tanaka.

I agree. Garza could possibly "fall into the Angels' lap" if the Yanks get Tanaka.

[Halos of Anaheim]

We're in really bad shape if we have 3 young guys taking up most of the rotation.

[Chimi]

It's been reported multiple times the Yankees have no interest in Garza. The Dodgers don't really need him either. I don't think the Garza market is as big as people think.

[Cdaniel]

I say we just give Garza the 4/60 unless we have a real shot at Tanaka.

[floplag]

If the choice comes down to either of the following, which would you all prefer... assume the money is comparable on an AAV basis or close enough for comparison sake.

 

1) Tanaka for 5-6 year

2) Garza and either Capuano or Arroyo for maybe 2-4 years

3) Garza and Balfour and maybe another lesser tier depth type starter again for maybe 2-4 years per contract

4) Trade for pitcher using Aybar/Kendrick and maybe sign another lesser starter for depth

5) insert another option here

Edited January 14, 2014 by floplag

[Docwaukee]

Nolasco is a 1.5 WAR pitcher who got 4/49.  Garza is certainly better thought of.  The fact that it's getting late in the off season has zero bearing relative to what it would normally mean to still be out there.  All the same people that wanted Garza from the beginning still do.  He's gonna be at 4/75 or 5/90.  His aav is going to be around 18mil for 4-5yrs.  I am not sure why people think he's gonna come at a bargain relative to everyone else all of a sudden. 

[Chimi]

I say offer him 3/$45MM and see if he takes it. Maybe add an incentive based option for a 4th year. If he was worth more than that, I think he would have had it by now .

[Cdaniel]

Garza and Balfour. If we are out of it by the Allstar break we trade Aybar and or Kendrick or both.

[HaloCory22]

"What is depth?"

 

-Angels fans.

 

Well, I could be wrong, but I believe "depth" is an old, old wooden ship that was used during the Civil War era.

[Cdaniel]

Nolasco is a 1.5 WAR pitcher who got 4/49. Garza is certainly better thought of. The fact that it's getting late in the off season has zero bearing relative to what it would normally mean to still be out there. All the same people that wanted Garza from the beginning still do. He's gonna be at 4/75 or 5/90. His aav is going to be around 18mil for 4-5yrs. I am not sure why people think he's gonna come at a bargain relative to everyone else all of a sudden.

.

Fletcher said Garza would have signed already if offered a 5/75 mil contract. Fletcher thinks he will sign for an AAV around 14 mil