Re-tooling instead of re-building

[wopphil]

I got into a debate with a co-worker (a fellow poster on this board) about the Angels' future.  He believes the team needs to rebuild.  I think the team can compete next year if it re-tools instead.  I think the 2012/2013 Red Sox are a good example of this.

 

Anyway, I ran some stats and was encouraged by what I found.  The Angels' team ERA is currently 4.29.  Blanton and Hanson are responsible for 131 of the 614 earned runs given up.  Remove them from the equation, and replace them with a guy who gives you a 4.00 ERA (like another Vargas), and the team ERA drops all the way down to 3.99 (Indian and Yankee territory, both of which have been competitive this year).  There are plenty of big league pitchers capable of giving you 200 innings at 4.00 ERA, so I don't think it is unrealistic to believe that can happen.

 

Now to the pen.  If you replace the 69 innings that Jepsen, Gutierrez, and Coello have thrown (giving up 37 earned runs in the process) with a comparable number from a guy like Mujica (who has given up 13 earned runs in 59 innings), the team ERA drops further down to 3.84.

 

And if the team ERA dropped down to 3.84, the run differential would go from -17 to +47.  This year, the Rays have a differential of +38 and the Pirates of +40, and if the season ended today, both clubs would be in the playoffs. 

 

So assuming everyone else performs similarly next year, the addition of just one league average starter and one really good relief arm could have a huge impact on the team.  Imagine what two or three good pen arms could do.  I also happen to believe that the offense has under-performed this year, and that we can expect marginally better results from Hamilton going forward and much better output from Pujols.  Even if that translates into only 20 or so more runs per year, the difference could have a big impact.  

[AngelsAndRamsFan]

With the right trades and free agent signing, it's possible the Angels compete for a playoff spot next year, but I don"t think the Red Sox are a good comparison. The Dodgers traded helped them out a lot. Also, they had a lot of injuries last year. Lester is pitching much better this year. 

[DMVol]

Agree with a lot of what you're saying but you have to remember that the Dodgers/Red Sox trade gave the Sox a huge amount of payroll flexibility, an unprecidented amount from one trade....Don't think anybody will help us with Hamilton and Pujols like the Dogs did the Sox.....

Edited September 10, 2013 by DMVol

[Angel Oracle]

Good post wopphil, the only change though is that Coello could be a solid guy in the pen.

He was pitching really well until the last couple of appearances, which can now be chalked up to the injury.

 

The Beard (FA signing without lost draft pick), Frieri, healthy Burnett, DDLR, healthy Coello, Kohn (2nd year after return from TJ surgery), Williams, and eventually Morin could potentially get the job done in 2014.   

 

Jepsen and Gutierrez can feel free to leave though. 

[ettin]

Agree with a lot of what you're saying but you have to remember that the Dodgers/Red Sox trade gave the Sox a huge amount of payroll flexibility, an unprecidented amount from one trade....Don't think anybody will help us with Hamilton and Pujols like the Dogs did the Sox.....

 

Yet someone helped us with Vernon Wells....

[ettin]

Good post wopphil, the only change though is that Coello could be a solid guy in the pen.

He was pitching really well until the last couple of appearances, which can now be chalked up to the injury.

 

The Beard (FA signing without lost draft pick), Frieri, healthy Burnett, DDLR, healthy Coello, Kohn (2nd year after return from TJ surgery), Williams, and eventually Morin could potentially get the job done in 2014.   

 

Jepsen and Gutierrez can feel free to leave though. 

 

I definitely agree about Jepsen he has had plenty of opportunities to show us what he can do and he has just not lived up to his potential. Coello is a keeper too.

[Angel Oracle]

Maybe someone will help with Hackilton after the 2015 season.

[DMVol]

Yet someone helped us with Vernon Wells....

Not the same....we are still paying 75-80% of Wells' contract (a good deal for us)....the Dogs took on virtually all of the money owed on the Sox contracts, including 2 that looked unmovable--Crawford and Beckett....

[fan_since79]

The Dodgers have a depth that we don't come close to having. They're winning all these games without their supposed best hitter, Matt Kemp. Players like Uribe, Mark Ellis, Schumaker, AJ Ellis are all contributing. The lineup is solid, top to bottom.

 

 

[Angelsjunky]

One caveat is that the Red Sox have a much more competent front office.

 

That said, the Angels will, should, and pretty much have to keep to re-tooling and not re-building. They have a ton of money committed to four players - two of them for three more years (Wilson and Weaver), one for four years (Hamilton) and one for eight years (Pujols). If they completely suck next year they can consider rebuilding and trade Wilson and other parts, but for now re-tooling is the way to go.

 

And yes, as you said they aren't far from being a good team. Don't forget simply bad luck/karma, or however you want to phrase it. Even with absolutely no changes there'd be positive regression and I think the team as is is good for 80-85 wins. Replace Blanton/Hanson and upgrade the pen and you've got around 90 wins.

[ettin]

Not the same....we are still paying 75-80% of Wells' contract (a good deal for us)....the Dogs took on virtually all of the money owed on the Sox contracts, including 2 that looked unmovable--Crawford and Beckett....

 

Sorry DMVol I wasn't trying to be snarky, I was just merely suggesting that one man's junk is another man's treasure and I think even you would agree that the mere fact we traded Vernon and moved as much salary as we did was a surprise.

 

I'm not saying it would be easy to move either Hamilton's or Pujols' contracts but it is possible to the right team.

[WallyWorld]

I don't think the Angels could "re-build" right now even if they wanted to.  Pujols and Hamilton aren't going anywhere, the top of the rotation is signed long term . . . they just have to severely limit their FA spending, make a savvy trade here or there, and hope the guys they keep perform better.  If you want to call that "re-tooling", so be it.

[KingJustinian]

Did the Red Sox even use the money they saved to sign anybody?

[FireThemAll]

Did the Red Sox even use the money they saved to sign anybody?

Victorino, Dempster, Napoli, Gomes, Uehara, Drew, David Ross, traded for Peavy, and they also extended Pedroia long term. Their front office is outstanding.

Edited September 10, 2013 by FireThemAll

[Docwaukee]

The last couple of weeks is a good indicator of how this team was supposed to play.  Albeit still with holes, they were certainly capable of playing a little better than .500 baseball with an actual rotation.  Even with Albert and Howie out, and Trumbo being pretty bad as well as piecemeal 3b guys, the offense has been solid to good.  The rotation, however, has been the obvious key.  Getting solid starts from 3 guys each time thru gives the team a much better chance to win. 

 

The bullpen is still a problem but I think that can be addressed. 

 

If Josh plays next year like he is now, and Albert gives us something similar to 2012, the offense will be really good.

If they get Vargas back and add one more guy, I would bet the rotation would be better than league average.

They really need three pen pieces to bring that part of the team up to par.  One of Mujica or Benoit, One of Janssen, Joe Smith, or a number of other, and one of Javy Lopez, Downs, or JP howell.  You could fill one of those spots with trade as well. 

Frieri needs to be the 3rd/4th option along with Burnett, and the two non-closer new guys.  DDLR then would be 5th or a shade below the others, and Kohn/Coello/Rasmus/Morin/Alvarez/Berg can fight it out for the last spot with Williams as the long man.  The rest of the guys that don't make it are depth. 

 

Two solid rotation guys (one of which could be Vargas) and Bullpen Bullpen Bullpen.  I'm fine with piecemeal at 3b for a season. 

[arch stanton]

Your friend can wish all he wants but rebuilding before 2016 just ain't happening. Might as well climb aboard the reload express.

[Angelsjunky]

The last couple of weeks is a good indicator of how this team was supposed to play.  Albeit still with holes, they were certainly capable of playing a little better than .500 baseball with an actual rotation.  Even with Albert and Howie out, and Trumbo being pretty bad as well as piecemeal 3b guys, the offense has been solid to good.  The rotation, however, has been the obvious key.  Getting solid starts from 3 guys each time thru gives the team a much better chance to win. 

 

The bullpen is still a problem but I think that can be addressed. 

 

If Josh plays next year like he is now, and Albert gives us something similar to 2012, the offense will be really good.

If they get Vargas back and add one more guy, I would bet the rotation would be better than league average.

They really need three pen pieces to bring that part of the team up to par.  One of Mujica or Benoit, One of Janssen, Joe Smith, or a number of other, and one of Javy Lopez, Downs, or JP howell.  You could fill one of those spots with trade as well. 

Frieri needs to be the 3rd/4th option along with Burnett, and the two non-closer new guys.  DDLR then would be 5th or a shade below the others, and Kohn/Coello/Rasmus/Morin/Alvarez/Berg can fight it out for the last spot with Williams as the long man.  The rest of the guys that don't make it are depth. 

 

Two solid rotation guys (one of which could be Vargas) and Bullpen Bullpen Bullpen.  I'm fine with piecemeal at 3b for a season. 

 

Doc, you're one of my favorite posters - because we always seem to agree...ha ha.

 

Anyhow, it is tempting to be annoyed with the fact that they're playing well only now that they're eliminated from postseason contention (not technically, but essentially). We could complain and say they aren't clutch, and Scioscia needs to be fired, or we could be more optimistic about it and say that it just took the team awhile to gel, and the fact that they aren't in contention allowed them to relax and stop pressing, and this can hopefully carry through to next year.

 

I hope.

[red321]

I agree with those that say the Angels have to retool, they really have no choice. The Pujols and Wilson signings, the Aybar/Kendrick extensions, the Hamilton double down...that was all geared in winning immediately and only made any sense in the context of winning in the next 3-5 years. If anything, the Pujmilton deals become more burdensome over time. If there's any chance the team can win, the Angels have no choice but to try...because reality is as bleak as it looks now, there's a chance it could look even bleaker in a couple of years.

[Troll Daddy]

As long as Arte Moreno is owner .... rebuilding will never be a option. Winning the division now will always be the goal for the team.

[Angel Oracle]

Still waiting for that first post-season berth since 2009 

But if Arte Moreno is smart from now on, maybe it won't take another 3-4 years to get to the post-season without a final destruction of the farm. 

Edited September 11, 2013 by Angel Oracle

[ten ocho recon scout]

The Dodgers have a depth that we don't come close to having. They're winning all these games without their supposed best hitter, Matt Kemp. Players like Uribe, Mark Ellis, Schumaker, AJ Ellis are all contributing. The lineup is solid, top to bottom.

Lineup wise, the angels are a better offensive team than the dodgers, and that includes a very poor hamilton, a split personality trumbo, injuries to bourjos/pujols/aybar (first month), and the second half of the season where were running out an average of 5 first year players a night.

The dodgers offense is overrated. And I think it bites them in the playoffs. (Every top talent pitcher they've faced in their hot second half has completely shut them down). Uribe, and especially hanley, are playing way above their norms. Remember how solid capuano and harang were for them last year? Same thing (imo). That said, their rotation is phenom.

But I think the red sox are a good point. Regardless of what some on here think, this team is in no way hurting for money. Obviously hamilton and pujols are very bad deals. But no more than kemp/crawford/ethier/beckett, etc. Figure agon is making 20 plus to put up less than superstar numbers. Not a huge deal, he's very solid. But to think they took on beckett and crawford to get him...and I don't see him getting better from this point. In about a year or two, agon and crawford will be making similar money as prince and mcab, but with torii hunter/jb shuckish production. And it will be like that another 4 years...

I don't know where to put the angels. I like to be optimistic, but how much more does weaver have left in him? I don't see any available pitxhers we can throw money at. I mentioned a few weeks ago, would trading for contracts of good players be the way to go? Would taking the money owed off of a productive front line starter (like cliff lee) be worth it? We don't have to worry about having a poor farm, and we have the flexibility.

Who knows, maybe mujica and a merc arm would be the difference maker.

[YouthofToday]

As long as Arte Moreno micromanages the shoelace length for all janitors, amongst other decisions, no front office person will ever be able to do what it takes to set this franchise up for long-term success.