AngelsWin Today: Taking stock as we approach spring training (and my take on the Perry Minasian Plan, v. 2024)

[Angelsjunky]

By Jonathon Northrop, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer

So its February 5th and pitchers and catchers report in less than two weeks. Let's take stock of Perry's moves and where the Angels might go from here.

Perry's made no major acquisitions - no starting pitchers, no positions players, only bench and bullpen guys. The team as it stands looks to be something like this (with likely 26-man roster in bold and potential first call-ups in parentheses):

C - O'Hoppe, Thaiss (Mejia, Wallach)

IF - Schanuel, Drury, Neto, Rendon, Rengifo, Sano (White, Stefanic, Soto, Lopez, Martin)

OF - Trout, Ward, Moniak, Adell, Hicks (Dozier, Calhoun)

SP - Detmers, Sandoval, Canning, Anderson, Silseth (Plesac, Rosenberg, Bachman, Daniel, Mederos)

RP - Estevez, Stephenson, Moore, Soriano, Cimber, Garcia, Joyce, Ciserno (Suarez, Quijada, Warren, Wantz, Herget, Caceres)

We can quibble with my choices for the 26-man -- maybe Sano doesn't make the cut and they insert White, or maybe Plesac starts the year in the rotation instead of Silseth, or Dozier as a starting OF with Moniak as 4OF, or the bullpen is slightly different. We enter spring training with some interesting roster battles. But including the guys in parentheses, I think I've included all the players who are candidates to start the year on the big league club.

So again, there are no big splashes, just some solid bench and bullpen acquisitions. Given that, it seems we're seeing one of two scenarios:

1) He went "secondary" first and is still going to sign a couple bigger free agents (e.g. Snell, Bellinger, etc) to try to at least give the appearance of contention.

2) What you see is what you get, aside from another possible small clean peanutty move or three. He plugged some holes, but is really just going the budget route for 2024, presumably with the idea being that realistically they can't compete and it is better to think long-term, or at least beyond "win now," regardless of the cost.

The first really seems unlikely at this point. I only really mention it because his moves so far kind of look like the type of secondary moves you make in addition to a couple big ones, and we all know Arte doesn't like to throw in the towel of playoff aspirations. But not only are we late in the game, but it is just hard to imagine the Angels getting some big names because they'd really have to get several to justify it as a win-now strategy. Meaning, not Snell or Bellinger but both...and I don't see that happening. And frankly, I'm not sure how much these guys want to wear Angels uniforms.

Either way, Perry seems to realize that no matter who they acquire, the biggest factor for 2024 success is the players they already have staying healthy and playing better. They could sign Bellinger and/or Snell and others and still go nowhere if Trout/Rendon/Ward can't stay healthy, or if the young guys don't develop.

So in a way, 2024 looks like a "taking stock" year. We've heard that before, but it hasn't really happened. With Trout and Ohtani, they've always at least "kind of" gone for it. But it looks like they want to answer two big questions before determining the plan for 2025 and beyond:

• How good are the young guys?
• Can Trout and Rendon reverse the downward spiral?

A best-case reasonable scenario and the Angels are pretty good, maybe winning 85 games and staying competitive into the second half but not reaching the playoffs. I suppose there's a tiny thread-the-needle possibility that they're good enough in July to make some moves at the deadline. But...

But if they show overall improvement to the 82-87 win range, this would enable Perry to augment for 2025 and make a run at it. But if it turns out that lots of young guys disappoint and Trout and Rendon continue to struggle with injury and decline, we might see an actual full-out rebuild, and some kind of fire-sale in July (e.g. Rengifo, Ward, Anderson, Stephenson, Moore, etc).

I know, the Arte Factor. Maybe he'll jump ship and sell after 2024, if the franchise doesn't turn the corner. It won't be as sexy a purchase for potential buyers without Ohtani and with Trout entering his age 33 season, but it also won't be as burdened with long-term contracts. After 2024, Rendon will only have two years left and Trout the only long-term big contract. The team will still have a core of young talent, even if it isn't awe-inspiring. Not taking on any big contracts this year only furthers this. And regardless of the dubious Angels tradition, they're still an LA team and potential buyers will look to 2002-09 as a case of what the Angels could be, if run well.

Discussion on the forum

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[BTH]

22 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

So in a way, 2024 looks like a "taking stock" year.

I don’t see why Perry would set up 2024 as a “taking stock” year when he doesn’t have a guaranteed contract beyond this year.

Let’s say they’re done, which would mean they’ve spent a total of $28.54M AAV this year.

If you were given $28.54M to spend, why would you spend pretty much all of it on the bullpen with other holes elsewhere?

I’m struggling to see why they’d spend $4.25M on Luis García, for example, if they aren’t going to continue to add elsewhere.

Right now, a guy who didn’t play AT ALL in 2023 is projected to make the team because they only have 12 MLB-caliber position players.

So I have to think there’s more coming, unless Perry is just that stupid or Arte just cut off spending out of nowhere after previously giving him a higher budget.

Edited February 3 by BTH

[Stradling]

Imagine if two of these three players breakout:

Adell

Sano

White

It’s an entirely different team that’s pretty deep.  

[Chuck]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

Imagine if two of these three players breakout:

Adell

Sano

White

It’s an entirely different team that’s pretty deep.  

I would rather none of those guys be fully counted on. That's bad baseball management and on Perry Minasian if he rolls the dice on any of those guys, plus Rendon, to contribute at a high level in 2024. 

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, BTH said:

I don’t see why Perry would set up 2024 as a “taking stock” year when he doesn’t have a guaranteed contract beyond this year.

Let’s say they’re done, which would mean they’ve spent a total of $28.54M AAV this year.

If you were given $28.54M to spend, why would you spend pretty much all of it on the bullpen with other holes elsewhere?

I’m struggling to see why they’d spend $4.25M on Luis García, for example, if they aren’t going to continue to add elsewhere.

Right now, a guy who didn’t play AT ALL in 2023 is projected to make the team because they only have 12 MLB-caliber position players.

So I have to think there’s more coming, unless Perry is just that stupid or Arte just cut off spending out of nowhere after previously giving him a higher budget.

So you think my option 1 is correct, that there are still big moves incoming? Again, it could be. But there isn't a lot out there beyond Snell and Bellinger.

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

Imagine if two of these three players breakout:

Adell

Sano

White

It’s an entirely different team that’s pretty deep.  

[Angelsjunky]

I don't want to be the douche that says "this isn't fantasy baseball," but...it isn't fantasy baseball. In this context, it means that players have to want to come to your team - you can't just take them in the draft or buy them as you wish (out-bidding others). Sure, Arte could probably sit Snell down and make him an offer he can't refuse, but if I'm Snell I'd rather play for a healthier franchise with a smarter owner, so that offer would have to be truly absurd. And then we're just back where we've been for the last decade: burdened by huge contracts with no sign of getting out.

Maybe people don't want to hear this, but the Angels aren't a desireable team to play for right now. They're not the worst, but there are probably a dozen teams that most players would rather play for, and half a dozen or more that all would prefer.

[Angels 1961]

I think small moves are coming a SP and INF. I would stay away from Snell but depending on price might say yes to Bellinger. Age for Bellinger and if it is a 6 year deal maybe good piece going forward in 2025 and beyond. Players to breakout maybe Moniak improves. 

[Erstad Grit]

I just can't accept to Perry t's a punt year. That doesn't line up with everything that has been communicated. Spending so much on a pen doesn't make sense with that approach.

We either...

1. Whiffed on the FA(s) we wanted and refuse to overpay for snellinger.

2. Laying in the weeds to get snellinger.

3. Perry thinks we're good as is and will add via trade during the season. 

I tend to think we were led to think Ohtani would stay and we operated with that approach. Currently we're  gauging the dropping price of Snellinger.

[Angelsfan1984]

So snell, Montgomery, bellinger, jd Martinez, Chapman and soler will all be without a team? 

[Erstad Grit]

5 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

So snell, Montgomery, bellinger, jd Martinez, Chapman and soler will all be without a team? 

Realistically JD makes the most sense and is the most doable.  

I still think Bellinger and Snell while have warts, make this team immensely better. 

[Angelsfan1984]

32 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Realistically JD makes the most sense and is the most doable.  

I still think Bellinger and Snell while have warts, make this team immensely better. 

Lots of options available to improve the club.

[Blarg]

I am ok with this group simply because this is the rebuild the Angels needed to get serious about.

I hope this is the squad, and there is no Snell or Bellinger because that doesn't complete a team, it just adds payroll to an unfinished product for fringe stars. 

[Jason]

13 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I am ok with this group simply because this is the rebuild the Angels needed to get serious about.

I hope this is the squad, and there is no Snell or Bellinger because that doesn't complete a team, it just adds payroll to an unfinished product for fringe stars. 

I feel the same way. This team needs to start over and it will be a bonus if Trout shows up this season. Hopefully Arte sells and they can start with a clean slate. Adding Snell and Bellinger isn’t going to make them contend. Maybe Arte selling will help like it has with the Washington Commanders. 

[BTH]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

So you think my option 1 is correct, that there are still big moves incoming? Again, it could be. But there isn't a lot out there beyond Snell and Bellinger.

Not necessarily big moves, but I think there are still moves incoming.

Unless Perry just misallocated his funds or Arte just cut off spending out of nowhere after previously giving him a higher budget.

[totdprods]

They need a year to just reboot the culture and expectations. It's been a meat-grinder of a decade of stress and pressure to win with a MLB team and minor league system not able to support that. Throw in all of the turnover in the FO and management, the handful of 'scandals' and bad press and it's left the org in a place where it just isn't desirable.

But the youth in place, an experienced, positive, culture-oriented coaching staff and a savvy GM could turn that around quickly. Skip the big money signings, develop the kids, let the coaching staff settle and farm take a step forward. There's still enough talent here for things to gel and, health-permitting, turn into a fun, young, 85+ win team that competes. All of the sudden that could be very appealing for free agents again.