A case for Matt Chapman

[Docwaukee]

Forgot about the draft picks and that would suck.  I just think he's a reasonable bet to maintain his value at age 31-33 at least due to his defense, plate discipline and batted ball data.  I don't usually like poor contact guys but considering that he's still out there, maybe he's overplayed his value and might take a pillow deal.  

[Angels 1961]

No

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

They have been. Chapman doesn’t prevent them from continuing to draft well. You lose one pick which sucks but it would also help the young guys develop.

to me, the key is adding value to the franchise that is sustainable.  If you're paying 18m to Chapman for his age 33-34 yo seasons, I can make a reasonable argument that you can turn that into future value.  They've been stubbornly reluctant to do that but it's still there.  

Owing 30m+ to Snell for age 35/36 is a terrible move for this franchise.  

Bellinger is a bit more palatable for me because of his age.  For him it's whether you feel he's gonna roll out another  47 wRC+ season.  Or even an 83.  7/160?  ok I guess.  8 for over 200?  Nope.  

[tdawg87]

23 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

No

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

Chapman would be interested from what I hear. 

[REDneck]

I think it would be a great sign.

Rendon is not going to appear in 140 games this upcoming season even with substantial time as the DH.

I guarantee it....Lou???

[tdawg87]

4 hours ago, REDneck said:

I think it would be a great sign.

Rendon is not going to appear in 140 games this upcoming season even with substantial time as the DH.

I guarantee it....Lou???

I believe Lou would find this funny so it's ok.

[Dgar24]

19 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

to me, the key is adding value to the franchise that is sustainable.  If you're paying 18m to Chapman for his age 33-34 yo seasons, I can make a reasonable argument that you can turn that into future value.  They've been stubbornly reluctant to do that but it's still there.  

Owing 30m+ to Snell for age 35/36 is a terrible move for this franchise.  

Bellinger is a bit more palatable for me because of his age.  For him it's whether you feel he's gonna roll out another  47 wRC+ season.  Or even an 83.  7/160?  ok I guess.  8 for over 200?  Nope.  

If prices on them come down to where you’re suggesting ,I’d take them both and a lower tier starter on a one year . That’s buying a lot of quality defense, running game and power for team. Moves Trout to left which is big deal compared to center Rendon to Dh.
I’m thinking a better option then Snell regardless of his price.

[Taylor]

Matt Crapman

[CaliAngel]

The Angels should absolutely get Chapman, which means they won't. 

[EDinTUSTIN]

On 2/3/2024 at 6:13 AM, Stradling said:

The lie is he plays good defense. We don’t have a lot of those. 

You beat me to putting those exact thoughts down in type, Strad. I believe he has a GG somewhere on his resume.

[tdawg87]

10 minutes ago, EDinTUSTIN said:

You beat me to putting those exact thoughts down in type, Strad. I believe he has a GG somewhere on his resume.

4 of them.

[EDinTUSTIN]

22 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

4 of them.

And two platinums to go along with them. 

[Chuck]

I'm starting to warm to this idea. Good discussion and writeup @tdawg87

[totdprods]

Try the Adrian Beltre to Boston route, a one-year pillow deal for him to rebound on. If he has a strong year he’d be one of the top bat FAs next year. Rendon can DH and back-up corners. Angels could trade Chapman at deadline.

[ShotimeDynasty]

On 2/3/2024 at 2:42 AM, tdawg87 said:

Let me start off by saying Rendon is a stupid moron with an ugly face and a big butt and his butt smells and he likes to kiss his own butt. 

Matt Chapman plays 3rd base. He plays 3rd base well. 

"But tdawg, we already HAVE a 3rd baseman!"

Please refer to the top of the page. Also there's some statistical nerd shit that I'd like to share. 

Fangraphs really likes Matt Chapman in 2024. These are his current ZIPS projections:

.240 AVG, 25 HR, .339 wOBA, 117 wRC+, 4.0 WAR. 

And remember, ZIPS is generally on the conservative side (Taylor pls) when it comes to projections. 

You know who Fangraphs doesn't like as much for 2024? Cody Bellinger. His ZIPS projections:

.267 AVG, 19 HR, .327 wOBA, 109 wRC+, 2.8 WAR.

Yes, Bellinger is younger. Yes he's a LHH. But he's almost certainly going to get a much larger contract than Chapman. 

Now what do we do with Rendon, then? 

Bat him DHth. Take him off the field and lower the boo-boo risk. Give him a day off once a week so Trout can DH. God I'm such a genious.

And although it's very unlikely, signing Chapman as opposed to Bellinger might give the Angels enough freedom to go after Snell or Montgomery as well. Again, highly unlikely and I know I just set off an alarm at @Inside Pitch's house by suggesting we forfeit 2 draft picks but I'm going balls deep here, man. 

Anyway, what are your thoughts on signing Chapman as opposed to a guy like Bellinger? Am I an idiot? Yes. Should we stay away from any big contracts for hitters? Focus on pitching? 

I love this idea. Would move Rendon to first base and give him the occasional DH day. Schanuel would get most of his run at DH vs RHP. The only drawback for me is limiting O’Hoppe to only getting PAs when catching. As is, I’d pencil Logan in for 50 DH days. Anyhow, all it takes in 1-2 (probably inevitable) injuries and O’Hoppe is back to getting frequent DH days. 
 

Chapman at third, Rendon at first, Neto SS and Drury/Rendon at second all of a sudden gives the Angels a very strong infield defense

[Angel Oracle]

I was in favor of a one year pillow deal, until I saw this.

Chapman hit just .205 after April, after batting .384 through April.

.205/.347/.361/.708 from May forward with only 33 RBIs in 458 PAs

I’d rather put Rengifo at 3B, and let Wash work some defense magic with him.   The arm is there.

[Angels 1961]

Halos have Rendon at 38 mill to play 3B so you add Chapman at 15 to 20 mill to play 3B. Lot of money for 3B. Save money for pitching.

[Chuck]

@Inside Pitch or anyone else, of the different projection modules which one is more reliable. 

For instance, Streamer vs. ZIPS? 

[totdprods]

15 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

I was in favor of a one year pillow deal, until I saw this.

Chapman hit just .205 after April, after batting .384 through April.

.205/.347/.361/.708 from May forward with only 33 RBIs in 458 PAs

I’d rather put Rengifo at 3B, and let Wash work some defense magic with him.   The arm is there.

Huge reason why I wouldn’t give him more than one year, and also why he may not find anything better than one-year deals. He has to prove most of last year wasn’t a new decline. For one year it’s worth a risk since the Halos aren’t likely contending in ‘24. He isn’t really blocking anyone. Under no circumstances do I want anything more than a one-year though.

[Stradling]

18 minutes ago, Chuck said:

@Inside Pitch or anyone else, of the different projection modules which one is more reliable. 

For instance, Streamer vs. ZIPS? 

My opinion is they are only as reliable as the health of the team. 

[tdawg87]

There's 0 chance Chapman gets 1 year. He still put up a 3.5 fWAR and 110 wRC+, not to mention his AVG and OBP were up. 

I'll gladly get Lou'd if I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.

[Inside Pitch]

38 minutes ago, Chuck said:

@Inside Pitch or anyone else, of the different projection modules which one is more reliable. 

For instance, Streamer vs. ZIPS? 

Average them out and you'll likely get it more correct than either model.

[tdawg87]

22 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Average them out and you'll likely get it more correct than either model.

So the answer is "yes"?

[HanfordGuy]

Sure sign him.