How long before we finish above .500?

[Second Base]

Perry has typically been aggressive early in the offseason to meet team needs, much like Anthopolous with Atlanta, and Toronto before that. 

This year, he isn't and I think the reason why is because they're low-key going to need to rebuild, like Eppler did when he took over for Dipoto. So I'm guessing you'll mostly see low cost vets filling holes. 

And as far as a timeline...

2024: Angels flip short term vets at the deadline to supplement their draft picks. 70 wins. Arte Moreno announced he'll sell the team at the end of the year. A new buyer/owner will be confirmed at the GM meetings in November. 

2025: Another year similar to 2024, Minasian continues to rebuild, so no major signings or trades. Neto, O'Hoppe and Schanuel emerge as legitimate all-stars. At the end of the year, Minasian and Washington are axed so that the new owner can install his own crew. 70-ish wins. 

2026: New GM and front office staff. They sell off anything not nailed to the floor. Payrolls begin to drop, as does attendance. Angels are one of the worst teams in baseball, but this will be the third year they'll have stockpiled prospects. 

2027: Another rebuilding year, but now they're picking at the top of the draft and they're starting to get some legit international prospects. They'll extend both Neto and Schanuel but after O'Hoppe turns down their offer, they trade him for a monster return as hell be one of the best catchers in baseball at this point. 

2028: The rebuild is starting to take shape but they're still at the bottom of the standings. 

2029: A hot second half puts then right there at .500. They sign a major free agent or two. 

2030: The Angels win their first division title in 16 years and are on an upward trajectory. 

[mmc]

19 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Perry has typically been aggressive early in the offseason to meet team needs, much like Anthopolous with Atlanta, and Toronto before that. 

This year, he isn't and I think the reason why is because they're low-key going to need to rebuild, like Eppler did when he took over for Dipoto. So I'm guessing you'll mostly see low cost vets filling holes. 

And as far as a timeline...

2024: Angels flip short term vets at the deadline to supplement their draft picks. 70 wins. Arte Moreno announced he'll sell the team at the end of the year. A new buyer/owner will be confirmed at the GM meetings in November. 

2025: Another year similar to 2024, Minasian continues to rebuild, so no major signings or trades. Neto, O'Hoppe and Schanuel emerge as legitimate all-stars. At the end of the year, Minasian and Washington are axed so that the new owner can install his own crew. 70-ish wins. 

2026: New GM and front office staff. They sell off anything not nailed to the floor. Payrolls begin to drop, as does attendance. Angels are one of the worst teams in baseball, but this will be the third year they'll have stockpiled prospects. 

2027: Another rebuilding year, but now they're picking at the top of the draft and they're starting to get some legit international prospects. They'll extend both Neto and Schanuel but after O'Hoppe turns down their offer, they trade him for a monster return as hell be one of the best catchers in baseball at this point. 

2028: The rebuild is starting to take shape but they're still at the bottom of the standings. 

2029: A hot second half puts then right there at .500. They sign a major free agent or two. 

2030: The Angels win their first division title in 16 years and are on an upward trajectory. 

This reminds me of your last projected timeline

On 7/8/2019 at 2:34 PM, Second Base said:

This is how I picture it playing out. 

2020: The Angels end up signing Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler and employ a six man rotation to help save Ohtani's arm.  Cole, Ohtani, Wheeler, Canning, Heaney and Barria/Suarez (riding the SLC to Anaheim express).  La Stella, Fletcher and Rengifo are share time at 2B and 3B, with La Stella also getting starts at 1B when Pujols is DHing and Ohtani isn't.  Adell will be in RF, Trout in CF and Upton in LF.  Angels win second wild card. 

2021: Pujols will enter into forced retirement of sorts.  The Angels can't keep him on the roster, he isn't performing, but he doesn't want to be relegated to the bench with the Angels legitimately contending, so he's bought out and gone, at least from the 25 man roster.  Thaiss is at 3B, Rengifo at 2B, Fletcher at UT and Upton at 1B.  Some days Upton is at DH and Fletcher is in the lineup.  Trout is flanked in the OF with Adell in LF and Marsh in RF.  Angels win the division. 

2022: Soriano and Rodriguez break into the rotation.  Cole, Ohtani, Wheeler, Canning, Soriano and Rodriguez.  Angels win the division and World Series. 

 

 

[Second Base]

47 minutes ago, mmc said:

This reminds me of your last projected timeline

 

Dude, that's awesome! Where did you dig that up?

[Rollinghard]

The Angels need at least one strong SP with attitude. A guy that goes out to WIN. A guy that hates losing. A bulldog. Super competitive. Leader. Somebody that can set the tone and inspire our other starters. I think Canning (and others) could greatly benefit being around this type of guy. 

Right now we have a bunch of 3/4 pitchers. They don't suck but we need a true number 1 and the Angels could win 90 plus games next year. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

I'll say this, 2024 is probably the worst the team has looked in a long time (as of now). Of course .500 is not a high bar, they dont even have to be any good and they could still luck their way into it. There is also some decent upside on the team, but that doesn't mean it will translate into wins.

[Angels in 2030]

On 12/14/2023 at 6:28 PM, Second Base said:

Perry has typically been aggressive early in the offseason to meet team needs, much like Anthopolous with Atlanta, and Toronto before that. 

This year, he isn't and I think the reason why is because they're low-key going to need to rebuild, like Eppler did when he took over for Dipoto. So I'm guessing you'll mostly see low cost vets filling holes. 

And as far as a timeline...

2024: Angels flip short term vets at the deadline to supplement their draft picks. 70 wins. Arte Moreno announced he'll sell the team at the end of the year. A new buyer/owner will be confirmed at the GM meetings in November. 

2025: Another year similar to 2024, Minasian continues to rebuild, so no major signings or trades. Neto, O'Hoppe and Schanuel emerge as legitimate all-stars. At the end of the year, Minasian and Washington are axed so that the new owner can install his own crew. 70-ish wins. 

2026: New GM and front office staff. They sell off anything not nailed to the floor. Payrolls begin to drop, as does attendance. Angels are one of the worst teams in baseball, but this will be the third year they'll have stockpiled prospects. 

2027: Another rebuilding year, but now they're picking at the top of the draft and they're starting to get some legit international prospects. They'll extend both Neto and Schanuel but after O'Hoppe turns down their offer, they trade him for a monster return as hell be one of the best catchers in baseball at this point. 

2028: The rebuild is starting to take shape but they're still at the bottom of the standings. 

2029: A hot second half puts then right there at .500. They sign a major free agent or two. 

2030: The Angels win their first division title in 16 years and are on an upward trajectory. 

We’re twins - although I’m guessing Arte sells in 2025-2026.  

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I'll say this, 2024 is probably the worst the team has looked in a long time (as of now). Of course .500 is not a high bar, they dont even have to be any good and they could still luck their way into it. There is also some decent upside on the team, but that doesn't mean it will translate into wins.

I disagree. Hell the fact we have Neto, Shanuel and O’Hoppe make this team in a better place than most years. This team looks better than 2021.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

11 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I disagree. Hell the fact we have Neto, Shanuel and O’Hoppe make this team in a better place than most years. This team looks better than 2021.  

Like I said, there is upside, but not much else... the expectations are extremely low.

Going in to 2021 no one realized Rendon was useless, or that Walsh was done. Fletcher had put up 4.5 war over his last 200 games. Ohtani was coming back to the mound and Trout had only had one normal season where he logged less than 600 plate appearances. 

Taken from the Fangraphs 2021 zips season preview...

Quote

Time is not on the side of the Angels. Now is when you can finally build a championship team around Mike Trout, not later. A winter when everyone else feels uncertain about the future is the best time to take the grandest risk for the highest upside.

People were objectively still seeing the Angels as a team that should be vying for a world series. You are not going to see many predictions placing them above 4th place in the AL West in 2024.

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Like I said, there is upside, but not much else... the expectations are extremely low.

Going in to 2021 no one realized Rendon was useless, or that Walsh was done. Fletcher had put up 4.5 war over his last 200 games. Ohtani was coming back to the mound and Trout had only had one normal season where he logged less than 600 plate appearances. 

Taken from the Fangraphs 2021 zips season preview...

People were objectively still seeing the Angels as a team that should be vying for a world series. You are not going to see many predictions placing them above 4th place in the AL West in 2024.

Yes but going into 2021 Ohtani was a huge question mark. He was coming off a 79 OPS+ season and had two horrible outings in 2020.  Ward was a question mark in 2021. Stassi was awful in 2020. But I see your point about Rendon and Fletcher.  Walsh was still a question mark as he had a good September in 2020, but that’s about it. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

45 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yes but going into 2021 Ohtani was a huge question mark. He was coming off a 79 OPS+ season and had two horrible outings in 2020.  Ward was a question mark in 2021. Stassi was awful in 2020. But I see your point about Rendon and Fletcher.  Walsh was still a question mark as he had a good September in 2020, but that’s about it. 

Obviously Ohtani going into 2021 was not the Ohtani that left 2021. Still if you are going to put stock in his 2020 season, then you'd have to do the same for Stassi, who had a very nice .278./ 352/ .533 line. Obviously these were not two players that tanked the '21 season (11 war between them). 

Also I realize I'm a year early on Walsh as he was coming off his .646 slugging 2020 season and had yet to demonstrate that ability over a regular season, but I do think higher expectations were definitely warranted (I was pretty high on him going into '21). The big thing you did point out was Ward, and the team desperately needing another outfielder. My memory is fading, but given the result I am sure they didn't get anyone useful. 

Ultimately it's hard for me to be higher on Schanuel, Neto, O'Hoppe, Adell ('23) than we were on Ward, Marsh, Adell ('20), Fletcher, Walsh at least when you consider the addition of pre-injury bug Trout, "young" Ohtani and not yet a bitch Anthony Rendon. The gap at the end here is huge.

[Angels 1961]

It could be this year if healthy and a few more additions to pitching staff.

[ten ocho recon scout]

On 12/16/2023 at 3:06 PM, AngelsLakersFan said:

Obviously Ohtani going into 2021 was not the Ohtani that left 2021. Still if you are going to put stock in his 2020 season, then you'd have to do the same for Stassi, who had a very nice .278./ 352/ .533 line. Obviously these were not two players that tanked the '21 season (11 war between them). 

Also I realize I'm a year early on Walsh as he was coming off his .646 slugging 2020 season and had yet to demonstrate that ability over a regular season, but I do think higher expectations were definitely warranted (I was pretty high on him going into '21). The big thing you did point out was Ward, and the team desperately needing another outfielder. My memory is fading, but given the result I am sure they didn't get anyone useful. 

Ultimately it's hard for me to be higher on Schanuel, Neto, O'Hoppe, Adell ('23) than we were on Ward, Marsh, Adell ('20), Fletcher, Walsh at least when you consider the addition of pre-injury bug Trout, "young" Ohtani and not yet a bitch Anthony Rendon. The gap at the end here is huge.

To your last point here, I couldn't agree more. 

I really like Neto (and he'll always make me think of @Lou). Ohoppe is the new big hope. Nolan I can't spell his last name is interesting 

That said... the list of guys we saw glimpses of something good and then completely let us down in recent years is pretty endless. I'm not getting any hopes up for any of the 3 mentioned above. I hope they turn out, but I also fell for it with Adell and a few others.

We sucked last year. And we lost Ohtani 

If you ignore Drury for a sec, Ohtani and Moniak kept us at a respectable record for most of the year. Ohtani is gone and no way Moniak repeats.

The 3 mentioned above working out, Trout staying healthy and Rendon somehow just playing 100 games would be a great start. 

But I don't see any way were not another 4th place season going forward isn't how it goes. Unless a few guys take massive leaps forward on the pitching side.