Gambling advice

[Erstad Grit]

At the start of the season I bet 25 bucks on the dbacks to win the WS which pays out 2500. ( I also won a ton on pirates over 67 wins but lost on angels making the playoffs)

Should I lay 500 on the rangers as insurance or just let it ride?

[Lazorko Saves]

Hmm, Rangers are -175?

At -175, you'd have to bet $1600 on the Rangers to completely hedge off either result. (You get to cash a $2500 ticket with either result.)

So one way to look at it, is the sportsbook is offering you $900 for your Diamondbacks ticket today.  Would you take that?  No?  Then hold it.  Yes?  Then hedge it off with a $1600 bet on the Rangers.

[Angels 1961]

1 minute ago, Lazorko Saves said:

Hmm, Rangers are -175?

At -175, you'd have to bet $1600 on the Rangers to completely hedge off either result. (You get to cash a $2500 ticket with either result.)

So one way to look at it, is the sportsbook is offering you $900 for your Diamondbacks ticket today.  Would you take that?  No?  Then hold it.  Yes?  Then hedge it off with a $1600 bet on the Rangers.

Yes, Lazorko is right bet the 1600 on Rangers. With winnings take the under in Angels win total for next year.

[Lazorko Saves]

If I got this right, you partial ($500) hedge math looks like this.

AZ win: cash 2500 minus 500 hedge minus 25 original ticket = $1975

TX win: cash $785 minus 500 hedge minus 25 original ticket = $285

$285 guaranteed by $525 reduction in max payout.

[Lazorko Saves]

5 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Yes, Lazorko is right bet the 1600 on Rangers. With winnings take the under in Angels win total for next year.

I can't find anyone offering win totals on the '24 Angels already, but I see +5000 on '24 Angels to win World Series.  Which probably translates to something like an over/under of 73 wins...again.  Ugh.

[Lazorko Saves]

BetUS is offering these depressing prop bets...

 

[m0nkey]

Let it ride!

[Erstad Grit]

Thanks all.

I'm going to let it ride and cheer for the snakes. I'm not interested in betting a significant amount on the Rangers to really make it worthwhile. 

Here were my odds. 

[Taylor]

[Slegnaac]

Rangers at -175 means you have to bet 175 to win 100.

You would have to bet 875 to win 500.

Betting 875 on Ranger.

Rangers win you profit 500 - 25 DBack bet.

DBack win you profit 2500 - 875 Ranger bet.

[Stradling]

No reason to hedge a $25 bet. 

[PattyD22]

@Erstad Grit, good luck buddy.  $2,500 for a $25 bet is not too shabby.  Of course, you're no Mattress "Mack" McIngvale.  He's down $7.9 million.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/jim-mattress-mack-mcingvale-lost-at-least-7-9-million-on-astros-world-series-bets/

[Jason]

[Mark68]

[Lazorko Saves]

12 hours ago, Jason said:

Especially in a knife fight!

[Lazorko Saves]

This board really should allow us to "That's RACIST" tag our own posts so that we don't have to wait for Taylor to do it.

[Lazorko Saves]

We really should be sub-contracting all the That's RACIST tagging required on this board to this guy.

[Tank]

On 10/27/2023 at 10:41 AM, Lazorko Saves said:

Especially in a knife fight!

 

[stormngt]

On 10/25/2023 at 12:13 PM, Erstad Grit said:

At the start of the season I bet 25 bucks on the dbacks to win the WS which pays out 2500. ( I also won a ton on pirates over 67 wins but lost on angels making the playoffs)

Should I lay 500 on the rangers as insurance or just let it ride?

Take the insurance

[CaliAngel]

Dude, what a tremendous bet.

I wouldn't hedge anything.

[Blarg]

2 hours ago, stormngt said:

Take the insurance

That would be stupid, he has a whole $25 on the line not a house payment.

[Lazorko Saves]

3 hours ago, Blarg said:

That would be stupid, he has a whole $25 on the line not a house payment.

It's not stupid, it's perfectly reasonable opinion.  What is stupid is thinking that ticket is still only worth $25 today, and that's all he has on the line.

He has at least $1085 on the line right now.  With at Rangers -130 to win the Series as of today, that ticket has an actual hedge value of $1085, and a hold-to-end expected value of $1250 (i.e., someone betting on Arizona today would need to put down $1250 to cash $2500 for a win).

[PattyD22]

Sorry @Erstad Grit.  It was a good bet nonetheless.  That’s gambling brother.

[Erstad Grit]

38 minutes ago, PattyD22 said:

Sorry @Erstad Grit.  It was a good bet nonetheless.  That’s gambling brother.

Yeah I let it ride, got nothing. I guess made the playoffs interesting with another year without the Angels. 

[PattyD22]

1 minute ago, Erstad Grit said:

Yeah I let it ride, got nothing. I guess made the playoffs interesting with another year without the Angels. 

I was rooting for you buddy.  Seriously.  As a fellow gambler, I can relate.