MLB Trade Rumors: Angels Offseason Outlook

[DMVol]

51 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

I think the days of high payroll are over.

Never thought I’d say this but I’m not sure that’s a bad thing….build it around the young guys, avoid expensive FA’s, at least for now….maybe add payroll if there is a salary dump that makes sense, like Iglesias from the Reds….

[AngelStew43]

I'd have interest in Yamamoto.  I think he's capable of double digit wins.  And I'd really like Bellinger.  His bat came back nicely, and he plays gold glove defense at 3 positions, CF, RF and 1B.  He'd be nice to have just in case we run into another wave of injured players.  

[DMVol]

Bellinger is exactly the kind of FA the Angels don’t need to go after….

[Angel Oracle]

4 minutes ago, DMVol said:

Bellinger is exactly the kind of FA the Angels don’t need to go after….

It depends on what the competing offers are.

What’s the most (years and money) that people in here would offer to Bellinger?

Concur that the days of new contracts over 5 years need to disappear for now, including for Ohtani.

[totdprods]

Regardless of Shohei returning or Arte selling, I’d like to see something sort of similar to this unfold this winter - some of this can wait until mid-year too.

• Sign Lucas Giolito to a 1-yr deal and hope he is at least as good, if not better, as the Syndergaard deal. Eats some innings, mentors the kids, and brings back a similar Moniak + Sanchez return at the deadline. I know, he sucked, but I don’t think he’s post-deadline bad and he’s as good a bet as any for a one-year flip, plus there’s mutual interest.
• Sign a Lorenzen-type to a 3-yr/$36m deal. Or two-year with similar AAV. I doubt Flaherty wants this, and someone like Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson or Kenta Maeda or Alex Wood are probably too old/risky for this investment, but really like the idea of signing another Tyler Anderson-esque contract (dollars and years, not pitcher profile) because they’re not too painful to dump, and if they pitch well, the contract is desirable enough to bring back a good return. It’s a financial sweet spot.
• Trade Patrick Sandoval in a one-for-one-ish deal for a young MLB-ready bat to a mid-market team. Milwaukee, Minnesota, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincy, St. Louis, maybe Tampa or Dodgers or Mets have interest and match. Think a Jordan Westburg, Joey Wiemer, Brice Turang, Andy Pages. Love the guy but I’m not sure he’ll find his success here and we could use another bat for the young core. Could save around $4-5m.
• Non-tender Barria, Suarez, Quijada, Walsh, Wallach, Phillips and save around $8-9m. Pursue minor league deals for Quijada, Walsh, and maybe Wallach. I assume the others will have too much interest elsewhere. Daniel and Rosenberg and Mederos can replace Barria and Suarez for cheaper and with advantage of options.
• Trade Carlos Estévez now while his value is at his highest for the best upside SP prospect offered, even if it’s someone low-level. 
• Trade Brandon Drury for 2-3 prospects, either high-floor close-to-bigs depth (with at least one being a decent relief arm) or low-level high-upside lotto tickets. Between this and Estévez, saves around $15m I believe. 
• Sign a non-closer reliever to a two-year deal for the closer role and try to replicate the success we had with Estévez. Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek, Shawn Armstrong, someone non-tendered like Dillon Tate perhaps, who Bill Hezel was posting about a couple years ago like Estévez. 
• Sign a couple very cheap vet RPs or maybe try a waiver claim for once? Follow the Watson/Cishek template and sign cheap guys with experience. They’re seatwarmers. The AA staff should have developed a few relief arms from the 20-pitcher draft this past year, but many were hurt or ineffective. This allows that wave of arms (Murphy, Costieu, etc.) to get back into the swing without big-league pressure as well as last year’s graduates. Don’t burn these relief arms up too quick.
• Sign a decent UT IF type like Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, Amed Rosario, Joey Wendle, Brian Anderson or a non-tendered Cavan Biggio, someone who can spot most places in the field who has at least MLB-average upside. 
• Sign a highly-respected bench vet like Mike Moustakas or Carlos Santana or Jason Heyward to really just be there as an additional player-coach who brings some true outspoken veteran leadership to the club. Not even that interested in on-field production tbh.
• Give Rendon a 1B mitt and ask Trout if he’d rather play LF or RF and make the switches in hope it keeps them healthier.

This entire plan is not intended to contend, but I think it could if everything broke right. This plan is completely intended to bridge the old core to the new. Foster a strong culture for Neto, O’Hoppe, Schanuel, and Detmers to learn from, and designed to be support a ‘24 deadline sale to reboot the farm. Any vet signed is an option to be dealt. Focus is entirely on building a young, competitive 2025 team and adding some layers of new, young depth to enable a trade of a high-value player like Ward or Rengifo at the ‘24 deadline too, without tying up payroll in any way that could prohibit the team from spending next winter, or manageable to facilitate a Braves-esque model of signing young players to realistic extensions. The “Lorenzen” deal essentially replaces the Anderson deal, the “Stanek” deal replaces the Estévez deal, it keeps the potential of those types of players and their production in play for when we are competitive again, while enabling those current players to be dealt at the height of their value (if it emerges) for minor leaguers. Draft to fill an MLB need again and re-stock for a year without buying, and hopefully by ‘25 deadline there’s some semblance of trade able depth returning. 

Edited October 11, 2023 by totdprods

[BTH]

@totdprods I’m down with most of that, although I find it difficult to see them trading pieces from their MLB roster (even though it’d make sense)

You mentioned the need for a veteran leader, and along those lines, I wonder if they need to bring in an everyday guy who is a leader.

Trout and Rendon aren’t vocal leaders, so maybe they can bring in an everyday position player who is.

Not sure who that’d be.

JD Martinez?

Not sure if Chapman is vocal, but as we saw,  he wasn’t afraid to speak up to his manager.

[BTH]

7 minutes ago, totdprods said:

 maybe try a waiver claim for once? 

THIS.

It drives me crazy that Perry almost never uses the waiver wire.

That’s one of the things that makes me question his abilities as GM.

0 risk, potential reward.

I don’t think he’s being restricted by Arte in this area, since Eppler made tons of waiver claims.

 

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, BTH said:

THIS.

It drives me crazy that Perry almost never uses the waiver wire.

That’s one of the things that makes me question his abilities as GM.

0 risk, potential reward.

I don’t think he’s being restricted by Arte in this area, since Eppler made tons of waiver claims.

 

It is weird, I don’t know if he’s made a single claim? I’m struggling to think of one. Eppler did that pretty well.

[BTH]

8 minutes ago, totdprods said:

It is weird, I don’t know if he’s made a single claim? I’m struggling to think of one. Eppler did that pretty well.

He’s made so few that I can name like half of them off the top of my head.

Tyler Wade, Andrew Velazquez, and Phil Gosselin.

EDIT: I think Robel Garcia too.

So utility infielders who can’t hit or defend… nice.

[totdprods]

23 minutes ago, BTH said:

@totdprods I’m down with most of that, although I find it difficult to see them trading pieces from their MLB roster (even though it’d make sense)

You mentioned the need for a veteran leader, and along those lines, I wonder if they need to bring in an everyday guy who is a leader.

Trout and Rendon aren’t vocal leaders, so maybe they can bring in an everyday position player who is.

Not sure who that’d be.

JD Martinez?

Not sure if Chapman is vocal, but as we saw,  he wasn’t afraid to speak up to his manager.

Drury and Estévez could be moved at deadline but going to get way less at that point. And I don’t think either are a sure thing to be better or even as good next year. Move on from them now while they have value. Replace Estévez with pretty much the exact same deal to another arm they feel has a good shot at taking on the closer role and be ready to move him at the deadline too, or at a minimum you have that guy next year. Just tired of holding onto guys until they have no value at all in bringing anything back. Let’s mix it up.

Drury is a little harder to part with IMO because we really don’t have a single bat we can bank on next year. It’s all very young players, injured players like Trout or Rendon, a big question mark with Ward, and Luis Rengifo. But with the FA market just totally devoid of any real hitters, I would think he will have a lot of interest. From there, we will just have to hope that Rengifo, Neto, and maybe just maybe Rendon hold down infield, with whatever vet depth they sign making up the difference. Also have whomever is returned in dealing Sandoval as an option to cover that spot.

Not totally giving up on Ohtani remaining an Angel, so I didn’t give a whole lot of thought to Martinez. Chapman is interesting but at the same time, like Drury, he will command a lot of money as one of the lone interesting FA bats, plus we already theoretically have an expensive 3B. Also not sure getting in the manager’s face is a good thing, nor signing a guy who pretty much dissed the entire team. I honestly think O’Hoppe is going to be the leader by the end of ‘24, which is why I thought about names who really will just bridge the gap for him to bank enough playing time for that mantle to stick. Enormously impressed by that kid.

Edited October 11, 2023 by totdprods

[Stradling]

5 hours ago, greginpsca said:

I think the days of high payroll are over.

Doubtful

[Docwaukee]

They're kind of in a spot to let most of the position player roster play out as is.  

Trout, Moniak, Ward, Adell in the OF
Stassi, O'hoppe, Schanuel, Rengifo, Drury, Neto, Rendon for the IF.  

Rotation will likely stay put in Detmers, Canning, Sandoval, Anderson, Silseth.  

Pen actually has some decent pieces.  

It's all very solidish.  Like maybe win about 80 games solid.  

i just don't see them doing a ton of rearranging.  

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Docwaukee said:

They're kind of in a spot to let most of the position player roster play out as is.  

yeah, but the problem is almost all of those players have question marks.

They are either coming back from injuries or young players who are not fully established.

[Blarg]

7 minutes ago, BTH said:

yeah, but the problem is almost all of those players have question marks.

They are either coming back from injuries or young players who are not fully established.

Just about every player in MLB with a resume has question marks. 

[BTH]

44 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Just about every player in MLB with a resume has question marks. 

Some have more than others.

You can’t say a player who missed a season  for family issues or a player who got hit in the face by a ball has less question marks than ones who didn’t.

[Inside Pitch]

13 hours ago, Angels in 2030 said:

Imagine being back in 2015 8 years ago after the season.  Finished 3 GB that season with 98 wins the season before.  Imagine someone saying at that time that the Angels would not finish above 500 for the next 8 straight years -- with Trout and with a two time MVP combo SP/hitter that rivals Babe Ruth.  Plus a top 1/3rd payroll.  To top things off, at the end of this 8 years in 2023, the Angels might be the worst off going into the post-season than during any of those previous years.  I'm not sure any of us could believe such a tall tell (some still don't want to hear it and prefer to believe otherwise).

Imagine having spent the previous three years blowing the GM and calling him Jedi while he pretty much destroyed the foundation the team had been built on and set them back a decade.  

Forest, trees.

[Inside Pitch]

8 hours ago, DMVol said:

Never thought I’d say this but I’m not sure that’s a bad thing….build it around the young guys, avoid expensive FA’s, at least for now….maybe add payroll if there is a salary dump that makes sense, like Iglesias from the Reds….

I'd argue the time to spend is when you DO have a young core.  Whether or not the Angels have that in O'Hoppe, Neto, Not Nolan Ryan the new Nolan, is still up for debate.  But they should maybe help them out by adding an OF and a SP or two.

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

They're kind of in a spot to let most of the position player roster play out as is.  

Trout, Moniak, Ward, Adell in the OF
Stassi, O'hoppe, Schanuel, Rengifo, Drury, Neto, Rendon for the IF.  

Rotation will likely stay put in Detmers, Canning, Sandoval, Anderson, Silseth.  

Pen actually has some decent pieces.  

It's all very solidish.  Like maybe win about 80 games solid.  

i just don't see them doing a ton of rearranging.  

I think minus Ohtani adding an OFer makes sense, even if its just bringing Grichuk back -- a build the floor type of move.  The rotation is the one area where I think they have to try to add, maybe a high leverage type RP.

[Inside Pitch]

Also, regarding having a vocal leader/Matt Chapman.  

I have loved Matt Chapman as a source of tremendous defense, above average power, and the ability to milk walks.  Those guys are great when you grow them on the farm, but they are bad bets in FA (not the defense part). 

Power and OBP have historically been viewed as "veteran skills", unfortunately guys reliant on those skills tend to see the other parts of their games fall off sooner than most.  Chapman is probably more athletic than most so there might be less concern he will fall off rapidly, but he's likely going to cost a lot more than he will be able to return the value on or come close to really.  So if leadership is a thing, they would likely find that much more cheaply bringing Moustakas back on a super cheap deal.  Not saying he did anything to merit being brought back, I just want to avoid a Vaughn 2.0 leadership signing mistake.

Anyway.  I can see the Angels looking for LH power this winter

[Stradling]

6 hours ago, BTH said:

Some have more than others.

You can’t say a player who missed a season  for family issues or a player who got hit in the face by a ball has less question marks than ones who didn’t.

And I’d argue that bringing in a FA outfielder with Ward’s upside has every bit as much risk based on cost, age, years. 

[Angels 1961]

I sign Lance Lynn for his part making baseball season better for halo fans.

[DMVol]

8 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

I'd argue the time to spend is when you DO have a young core.  Whether or not the Angels have that in O'Hoppe, Neto, Not Nolan Ryan the new Nolan, is still up for debate.  But they should maybe help them out by adding an OF and a SP or two.

I guess it’s all relative. Spend yes but not on Bellinger or a huge ticket guy…if you could get it right with another Drury or Estevez or Moore, or even a little more on an Anderson level deal, that’s fine….But I don’t think a 9 figure Bellinger deal would be wise…

[totdprods]

9 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

I'd argue the time to spend is when you DO have a young core.  Whether or not the Angels have that in O'Hoppe, Neto, Not Nolan Ryan the new Nolan, is still up for debate.  But they should maybe help them out by adding an OF and a SP or two.

I think the problem is there isn't a whole lot to spend on this winter. There's some decent pitching buys, but bats are almost null. And next winter offers a good crop of FAs too. That's in part of why I'm suggesting that they invest in one-year deal trade bait vets, a couple lesser-tiered multi-year pitching signs (good trade value, doesn't kill budget), and then mentorship-type stopgap vets. And as @Docwaukee said, for the most part the team is 'set' provided everyone stays healthy, and they could be a fringe contender with what they have if everything breaks right. It sounds very similar to years' past, but buying on the fringes and buying one-year deal vets who have trade value at the deadline could help them restock some of the depth they lost both last winter and this deadline in trades. The difference really just comes down to lessening expectations and treating it as a true transition year, and signing guys with the intent to trade, or signing guys to serve as a safety-net enabling a trade of a high-value arb-controlled player like Sandoval, Rengifo, Ward, or Canning.

What they should do is start locking up some guys to long-term extensions by end of '24 like the Braves have done, at least O'Hoppe and perhaps Detmers, Neto probably as well. A little skeptical on his long-term future but definitely still high on him. Schanuel too. Just need to see them over another season or two to really know a fair offer.

And I think they will be in good shape to spend much more next winter. Estevez, Stassi and Drury will be off the books, Anderson will have one year left (easier to deal or dump), Rendon's contract will be close enough to expiring they can work around it much easier, and they'll know by then if Ohtani is an Angel or not. So spend this winter - but limit it to guys who come off the books at end of '24 or guys who are cheap enough on multi-year deals they still retain some trade value mid-year. And sign guys who will have a true clubhouse impact on the young core going forward. 

Edited October 12, 2023 by totdprods

[Erstad Grit]

9 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Also, regarding having a vocal leader/Matt Chapman.  

I have loved Matt Chapman as a source of tremendous defense, above average power, and the ability to milk walks.  Those guys are great when you grow them on the farm, but they are bad bets in FA (not the defense part). 

Power and OBP have historically been viewed as "veteran skills", unfortunately guys reliant on those skills tend to see the other parts of their games fall off sooner than most.  Chapman is probably more athletic than most so there might be less concern he will fall off rapidly, but he's likely going to cost a lot more than he will be able to return the value on or come close to really.  So if leadership is a thing, they would likely find that much more cheaply bringing Moustakas back on a super cheap deal.  Not saying he did anything to merit being brought back, I just want to avoid a Vaughn 2.0 leadership signing mistake.

Anyway.  I can see the Angels looking for LH power this winter

Bobby Abreu is an example a great veteran skills guy we signed.  I can think of many more names that were not.

 

[Inside Pitch]

5 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Bobby Abreu is an example a great veteran skills guy we signed.  I can think of many more names that were not.

 

Another guy that was very athletic - he was stealing 20+ bases well into his 30s.  The athletic guys tend to buck the trend.  It's the slow power guys who walk that seem to just crater all at once.