Going all in, what does that look like?

[floplag]

So after the conversation the other day, im curious what "going all in" looks like to the board.  Im assuming this means adding between now and the deadline as the current roster inst that.

Forget for a minute whether or not its realistic or whether Arte will once and for all finally put his wallet where his mouth is tax wise... lets assume for arguments sake he will (even though ill believe that when i see it)... 

And for now well assume Ohtnai is NOT being traded.

Who do we try to add, what does that look like?

GoldSchmidt?  Stroman?  Chapman?  Any C options to bridge to OHoppes return?  

I dont know how realistic any of that is given the farm but im curious where people are on this? 

 

[totdprods]

As much as adding a catcher makes sense, finding one on the midseason trade market that would be even available doesn’t seem worth disrupting the Thaiss/Wallach combo that has somehow worked so far. Would the defense gained be worth the offense lost? And at what cost? Especially since O’Hoppe is back next year (maybe even minuscule chance this year), so you’d really just need a rental. Kinda wish we had nabbed Gary Sanchez, he seemed to at least have the potential of a big upgrade for free. 

They badly need an arm….Stroman would be an easy target, but I’d say even someone like Flaherty or Giolito (both local guys who could be FA targets) would be a necessity. Even if they’re stuck in #3-4 production, they’ve had flashes of better production before, and it would help push Anderson further down the food chain. Maybe he replaces Tucker for the remainder of the season. I have a little more faith in the rotation still; I think they had a poor start, bad defense behind them, high expectations…Detmers could flip a switch any day and become a #2 immediately. Last night was a good example. Sandoval should be pitching better, but he’s always made me nervous. I just don’t think he has the durability/makeup to be a successful SP that gives you 30 GS and 180 IP, at least at the level we dream on. He reminds me of Richards, and is someone who I think we could sell high on in the right deal. Canning and Barria have been nice surprises. Either way, I think with improved defense and bullpen, the rotation will slowly start to improve as season continues.

Bare minimum, one more vet reliever. Even if it’s just a steady 6th/7th inning guy.

Going off my other thread, I’ll say Goldschmidt, Flaherty, and then snag someone like Hunter Harvey. 

Edited June 15, 2023 by totdprods

[Hubs]

Adding an offensive piece, a starting pitcher, and at least one bullpen arm. Maybe two.

They are going to have to give to get, so getting like Goldschmidt, Chapman and Stroman may be too much to ask..even if going all in.

But to get those three, you're looking at giving up a young starter, likely plus Adell, and maybe even Quero. And more prospects. That's likely too much. 

But I think they could get all three positions, if not those three.

But maybe Giolito? Flaherty? Smyly? (I would've said Clevinger, but he's hurt). Bellinger? McMahon? 

--

There are likely only a few sellers at this point, and If I were going all in, I'd do it as soon as next week, before the Dodgers Series. Definitely before the All-Star Break. Not waiting until the Deadline.

The Cubs, Cardinals, Nationals, and Rockies are the worst four teams in the National League, and the A's, Tigers, and Royals are the worst in the American League.

Problem is, those teams don't have a lot of offensive talent.

Goldschmidt, if he's truly available is the premier offensive player on the market, other than Ohtani. And he's not a free agent until after next year, which helps as you only have one premier FA to re-sign, not two. 

 

-- 

 

There are countless relievers on the market but we need another hard thrower, as you have all seen the difference between the soft throwing pen of April (and apparently last night) and the hard throwing pen of the last few weeks.

Chapman isn't the only name, but he's definitely available. So is Keller. 

 

[Angel Oracle]

Maybe just get Chapman and have a deep pen from late July forward?  He would only cost less than $2 million the rest of the season.

No HRs allowed in 23.1 innings, stingy on hits, has walked 15 but K’d 41.

Estevez, Chapman, Devenski, Moore, Bachman, Webb, Soriano, and someone like Diaz or Rosenberg to take Davidson’s spot?

There are just two weeks after July 2 where the Halos play all 7 days.

Arte Moreno may not want to exceed the tax threshold in 2023, and Chapman’s salary is the perfect fit.

Edited June 15, 2023 by Angel Oracle

[Hubs]

Baseballtradevalues.com isn't the end all be all, and all teams value players differently. I do feel they weigh the additional salary too much in players with long term contracts. They seem to believe the big contracts that do get traded like A-Rod or Stanton (both to the Yankees) not getting big returns for the trading team. And while that may be true, a guy with 2 or 3 years on his deal shouldn't have gigantic negative values. Trout's value is much higher than say Detmers...but they have Trout ranked lower than Detmers in value. 

They also do value age a lot. 

Still, the values do give you a starting point, so here are the values for the names above.

Goldschmidt is listed at 34.9. Stroman at 9.8. Flaherty at 3.3. Bellinger is just at 0.5. Smyly at 11.1. McMahon at -1.7. Giolito is at 15. (I'd think Stroman is worth much more, which is the problem with these numbers). 

 

 

[Angel Oracle]

What is Chapman valued at?

[Hubs]

2 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

What is Chapman valued at?

6.3. And Keller is negative for some reason at -0.2.

 

[Angel Oracle]

Just now, Hubs said:

6.3. And Keller is negative for some reason at -0.2.

 

What would 6.3 value be on the Halos or on the farm?

[Hubs]

The Angels desirable young players and guys that teams would want to trade for look like this: 

Adell 0.1, Adams 0.7, Davidson 0.4, Detmers 43.6, Fletcher -4.2, Renfroe 4.3, Silseth 2, Suarez 12.1, (another example of a problem with the rankings), Bachman 3.6, Bush 5.1, Quero 21.4, Sandoval 22.7. 

 

[Hubs]

3 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

What would 6.3 value be on the Halos or on the farm?

I'd imagine they want super young guys, and so, that's like Jadiel Sanchez 2.4, Marceaux 1.1, and Urena 2.2  .. something like that.

[mmc]

I hope that site dies a cruel, painful death

[REDneck]

I think a win tonight will go along way to solidify the "all in" mindset.

Of course, if we piss away any momentum we gain in Texas away in KC that could change again.

[totdprods]

25 minutes ago, mmc said:

I hope that site dies a cruel, painful death

The values have proven to be pretty accurate - past trades have proven to be really close to what was assigned - but anyone can plug and play values to say a trade will work when that’s usually far from reality. The glaring reality is every team will value every player differently based on their needs - applying a one-size-fits-all value to Adell or Rengifo isn’t realistic.

The Angels likely would not move Sandoval or Detmers in a trade for Goldschmidt, not unless there was another move in place for the Angels to bringing in another SP. 

And a package of Sanchez, Marceaux, and Urena isn’t going to be compelling enough to anyone beyond a role player, even if the math adds up to something more. 

To me, that site is less about *building* viable trades, and more about assessing a quick trade idea to see how far-fetched it is.

Edited June 15, 2023 by totdprods

[Erstad Grit]

Stroman and Goldy and a pen arm would be amazing.

 

[Hubs]

11 minutes ago, totdprods said:

The values have proven to be pretty accurate - past trades have proven to be really close to what was assigned - but anyone can plug and play values to say a trade will work when that’s usually far from reality. The glaring reality is every team will value every player differently based on their needs - applying a one-size-fits-all value to Adell or Rengifo isn’t realistic.

The Angels likely would not move Sandoval or Detmers in a trade for Goldschmidt, not unless there was another move in place for the Angels to bringing in another SP. 

And a package of Sanchez, Marceaux, and Urena isn’t going to be compelling enough to anyone beyond a role player, even if the math adds up to something more. 

To me, that site is less about *building* viable trades, and more about assessing a quick trade idea to see how far-fetched it is.

The only way they move a starter in a Goldschmidt trade is if they also got Flaherty back.  I'd really not want to move Bachman or Detmers, but they would be targets for sure. 

I'd try not to move Quero, too, but it takes value to get value. 

[totdprods]

12 minutes ago, Hubs said:

The only way they move a starter in a Goldschmidt trade is if they also got Flaherty back.  I'd really not want to move Bachman or Detmers, but they would be targets for sure. 

I'd try not to move Quero, too, but it takes value to get value. 

Obviously losing a prospect as good as Quero would hurt, but I feel given O’Hoppe, Thaiss, and the fact that rarely do teams split catching ~50/50, Quero is the easiest ‘big value’ prospect to surrender in a deal like that. 

I could see St. Louis being crazy enamored with Detmers but eff that, they’d have to sweeten the deal beyond reason for me to want to add him. I’d consider Bachman but there would need to be other moves to address pen.

Edited June 15, 2023 by totdprods

[Hubs]

7 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Obviously losing a prospect as good as Quero would hurt, but I feel given O’Hoppe, Thaiss, and the fact that rarely do teams split catching ~50/50, Quero is the easiest ‘big value’ prospect to surrender in a deal like that. 

I could see St. Louis being crazy enamored with Detmers but eff that, they’d have to sweeten the deal beyond reason for me to want to add him. I’d consider Bachman but there would need to be other moves to address pen.

Quero, Marceaux, Bachman, Davidson, Suarez for Flaherty and Goldy works for me.

[totdprods]

15 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Quero, Marceaux, Bachman, Davidson, Suarez for Flaherty and Goldy works for me.

I think that’s pretty fair, except St. Louis might want one prospect with more shine and less service time than the combo of Suarez/Davidson, a la one of Bush or another decent SP prospect, Adams, Vera/Placencia/Blakely. It’s the reigning MVP and a one-time ‘future ace’, so I think to some degree prospect pedigree comes into play. Getting two first round picks in Bachman and Adams feels like it fits more.

It’s a price to pay for sure, but that’s not one that kills the future by any measure.

Edited June 15, 2023 by totdprods

[Hubs]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

I think that’s pretty fair, except St. Louis might want one prospect with more shine and less service time than the combo of Suarez/Davidson, a la one of Bush or another decent SP prospect, Adams, Vera/Placencia/Blakely.

It’s a price to pay for sure, but that’s not one that kills the future by any measure.

I just throw Suarez in for the "BTV Value" and that he would be in STL's rotation right now. So would Davidson likely. 

I doubt the Angels give them two or three young/prospect pitchers with tons of service time like Bush/Bachman/Silseth. But thats what they'd ask for (if not Detmers).

 

[Angel Oracle]

22 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Quero, Marceaux, Bachman, Davidson, Suarez for Flaherty and Goldy works for me.

I’d hold on to Quero, the bat is pretty good for age 20.

If catching is mostly solved for the next 6 seasons (O’Hoppe), does Quero have the skills to learn 1B?  Or would he be shorter than a desired 1B?

[stormngt]

We went from sell everything and dismantle the team to "going all in" in a matter of four days.

[Revad]

12 minutes ago, stormngt said:

We went from sell everything and dismantle the team to "going all in" in a matter of four days.

And if we lose tonight I’ll be ambivalent tomorrow.  Meanwhile, I think needs rank in the following order:  SP, RP, bat.  Really need to address all three.  Seems like there should be a 1b upgrade out there that won’t break the bank.  I’d favor a SP that’s under control for 2024.  Chapman would be nice but the bidding may be too much.

[Hubs]

12 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I’d hold on to Quero, the bat is pretty good for age 20.

If catching is mostly solved for the next 6 seasons (O’Hoppe), does Quero have the skills to learn 1B?  Or would he be shorter than a desired 1B?

I'd prefer that too, but it's going to take someone off the top 5 prospect lists.. Not gonna be done for a bunch of random pieces. 

Quero may end up at 1st base, he's 5'11, but I'd bet not. And you wouldn't have to worry about first until 2025, and who knows what the upper minors looks like then. 

[totdprods]

23 minutes ago, stormngt said:

We went from sell everything and dismantle the team to "going all in" in a matter of four days.

who's we

[totdprods]

31 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I just throw Suarez in for the "BTV Value" and that he would be in STL's rotation right now. So would Davidson likely. 

I doubt the Angels give them two or three young/prospect pitchers with tons of service time like Bush/Bachman/Silseth. But thats what they'd ask for (if not Detmers).

I think that's also partially 1) why they drafted like 35 pitchers out of 40 picks in two drafts and 2) one benefit of moving guys like Silseth and Bachman and Joyce to the bigs so quickly (and others to AA) as it can boost the value a little

And again, we're weeks away from another draft which, if history holds, could land a guy or two who are contributing next year...heck there was even talk of Bachman going nearly straight to bigs same year he was drafted. 

Not an ideal strategy, but with the sense of urgency, I don't think it's a no-go that they move a couple arms and immediately replenish with another college-heavy/pitcher-heavy draft.