AngelsWin Today: Dissecting Mike Trout and why you should not worry

[Inside Pitch]

21 minutes ago, T.G. said:

@Inside Pitch is great, but he's no Joe Maddon.

True, but I too love a good Mohawk.

[Tank]

15 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

True, but I too love a good Mohawk.

i hope this isn't something found in the urban dictionary.

[IheartLA]

The high fastball is basically in every teams scouting report. Trout’s still a great hitter and will make adjustments. Not worried about the offense he won’t be what he was but that’s the reality of being 31. He’s still elite.

But defensively he’s toast. He looks so slow and heavy out in CF. He needs to be in LF. Next year him and Rendon will basically be alternating the DH spot and maybe that helps him but right now it looks like he can barely cover anything out there.

[Angelsjunky]

On 5/18/2023 at 1:23 PM, AngelsWin.com said:

 

Basically it's a spotty 40-game stretch and he's done this before, only it's happening at the start of the year instead of 40 games in.

In conclusion we need about 60-70 games of data to see what's noise and what's an actual development.  People tend to be very reactive to traditional stats but it's the predictive stuff we need to focus on that I highlighted above.  We made these arguments regarding Anthony Rendon before he started mashing, pointing to the same exact data.  

 

 

 

 

OK, we've had 62 games and he's only gotten worse. Now what?

This is really starting to look like a Pujolsian collapse.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[tdawg87]

7 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

OK, we've had 62 games and he's only gotten worse. Now what?

This is really starting to look like a Pujolsian collapse.

May I offer you some hopium, courtesy of @Inside Pitch?

[Taylor]

AJ trying to do a reverse jinx.

[Inside Pitch]

48 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

May I offer you some hopium, courtesy of @Inside Pitch?

A better source, FanGraphs recently covered this very thing and essentially argued he's just missing and that this isn't some new level of performance.  But people who have been bringing the topic of Trout's decline up every year will continue to do so.  

There is also a Sam Blum article where Trout himself is saying he's not using his lower body -- all of which jives with what the notion that he's been under/topping shit.   The K issues -- he's done this before.  He gets K happy at times, if you need proof do a search for the previous Mike Trout is near the end threads.

[Jason]

We are Angel fans and used to things not going right. I’m worried about Trout 

[Angels 1961]

I'm worried halos need him if they expect to win. Wonder if he needs eye exam.

[T.G.]

@Inside Pitch, C'mon - we both know he's never going to get another hit ever again.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Jason said:

We are Angel fans and used to things not going right. I’m worried about Trout 

There is no question he's in decline, but some of the AP comps being made on the internet are just ignoring a lot of predictive data that tells a better picture of what's happening.

That said -- the K's have been coming more and more.

[full circle]

This is where you’d actually have to watch the ABs and not just look at data. This slump is something different than he’s ever had before.  And I’d posit that he’s getting pitched differently than he ever has before. 

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, full circle said:

This is where you’d actually have to watch the ABs and not just look at data. This slump is something different than he’s ever had before.  And I’d posit that he’s getting pitched differently than he ever has before. 

He had a slump like this last year in a season where he hit 40 homers in 119 games and had a 6 WAR. 

[IheartLA]

8 minutes ago, Stradling said:

He had a slump like this last year in a season where he hit 40 homers in 119 games and had a 6 WAR. 

I never took seriously the minor slumps in previous years. They were always just standard even for superstars. This one feels different than the others imo. He seems like he’s got a real problem with the high heater.

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, IheartLA said:

I never took seriously the minor slumps in previous years. They were always just standard even for superstars. This one feels different than the others imo. He seems like he’s got a real problem with the high heater.

Watching it I agree but the data tells us not to worry like our eyes say we should. 

[Angelsjunky]

The OP is about why we shouldn't worry, and the data is based on it only being 40 games and that we'll know more after 60-70 games. Well, it is now 63 games and Trout has only gotten worse. Should we not worry? I think it is valid to worry, even if comparing him to Pujols is hyperbolic...but I'm not sure that it is. 

I do think that Trout will figure things out at some point, or at least he cannot possibly be this bad, this quickly. But again with the Pujols comp - it wasn't all at once, but more of a steep decline over a few years. Albert went from a 180 wRC+ at age 29 (or whatever), to 164 to 147 to 133 to 112 by age 33. Trout is in his age 31 season, so he's at the same point that Pujols was when he fell to 147, which was the lowest of his career. Trout's lowest was 160 in 2020 or 167 in a full season. He was at 176 last year and is currently at 128. If he gets hot and finishes at, say, 150, it will still be the worst season of his career with the bat.

Anyhow, I see several possibilities going forward:

• He adjusts and has a second peak for a few years, returning to 170+ wRC+ seasons. (~20%)
• He somewhat adjusts, but at a lower level than his bese, maybe 150-160 wRC+ (~50%)
• He's amidst a Pujolsian collapse/steep decline (~30%).

Just guesstimating, of course. But that's how I see it.

[REDneck]

Off the bat I was really rooting for that SAC fly to go out.

From his body language, so was he.

He was productive today.

[Chuck]

Mike Trout WAR: 2.0

Zach Neto WAR: 1.8

[Angelsjunky]

Trout since April 30: .204/.308/.372, 87 wRC+

Neto since April 28: .266/.345/.434, 117 wRC+ 

[Taylor]

55 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Trout since April 30: .204/.308/.372, 87 wRC+

Neto since April 28: .266/.345/.434, 117 wRC+ 

Put Neto at #2 and bat Trout 6th.

[Chuck]

7 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Put Neto at #2 and bat Trout 6th.

He normally kills it in Texas, but if he comes out of this four game series still struggling you have to drop him in the order until he figures it out. 

[Angels 1961]

I bat Trout leadoff, Ohtani 2nd Rendon 3rd. Just to change things up for him. Big series for Trout in Texas.

[Jason]

Nope, still worried 

[Angelsjunky]

Well, we don't know if it is his first off-year, or if he's on a steep downward trajectory. Either implies that he's in decline. I think he'll bounce back this year, and maybe finish around .270/.380/.540 with 30 HR, 150 wRC+ and 5 WAR. But that would still be by far his worst season.

Next year he'll bound back and hit something like .280/.400/.550 with 35 HR, 160 wRC+, 6 WAR. But the writing is on the wall: Trout is not a mega-star anymore. All good things come to pass. Or rather, all great things eventually become just good.

Edited June 22, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[fan_since79]

Many great ones have precipitously declined in their 30's. Two that come to mind are Miggy Cabrera and earlier, Jimmie Foxx. Trout's had a lot of games and has been banged up through the years. Too early to write him off, but we'll see how it plays out.