From MLBTR: What will the Angels do with Adell?

[beatlesrule]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/the-opener-padres-adell-tigers.html

Jo Adell was once among the most promising prospects in the game, but after three consecutive seasons of struggling in his opportunities at the major league level, he appears to be in danger of being pushed off the roster in Anaheim entirely.....

[Angelsjunky]

"On the other hand, given Adell still has a minor league option remaining, it’s possible the club could be content stashing him in Triple-A as depth to protect against the injury woes that have so frequently plagued the Angels in recent years."

This. The article doesn't mention that his trade value has crashed and the Angels would be selling low. He's not a guy you trade right now.

[Second Base]

Keep him in AAA if you can. One year in AAA will likely clear all this uncertainty up. 

1. He hits the dogsnot out of the ball and boosts his value high enough so that next year that the Angels can trade him. 

2. He makes the adjustments and the Angels feel comfortable putting him in LF again next year. 

3. He delivers more "meh" results in AAA and needs a change of scenery. 

4. He flounders in AAA like he did last year, and you know he's busted. 

-------

Either way, unless some team still values him as a prospect, the best course of action is to keep him and let him show you what he's going to become next year with his performance. 

I will say this for him, there's absolutely no reason why Jo Adell shouldn't destroy AAA pitching. He's a power hitter and the ball flies in the PCL, and breaking balls, have a hard time breaking there as well. And whatever defensive issues that are plaguing him in the corner outfield, he can start making drastic changes, because it's pretty clear that despite all his talent, he's not a good fielder right now. 

Edited December 30, 2022 by Second Base

[DMVol]

If we are offered a good return in a trade now, I might move him….if not, no real need to do anything… just keep him at AAA….good for depth or if he blows up at SLC, you could consider a trade mid-season…with a better return probably….

[ThisismineScios]

4 hours ago, Second Base said:

Keep him in AAA if you can. One year in AAA will likely clear all this uncertainty up. 

1. He hits the dogsnot out of the ball and boosts his value high enough so that next year that the Angels can trade him. 

2. He makes the adjustments and the Angels feel comfortable putting him in LF again next year. 

3. He delivers more "meh" results in AAA and needs a change of scenery. 

4. He flounders in AAA like he did last year, and you know he's busted. 

-------

Either way, unless some team still values him as a prospect, the best course of action is to keep him and let him show you what he's going to become next year with his performance. 

 

I like these options, but I think Perry could also take the Marsh route (I know there are differences, one sec). This guy may or may not figure it out, but someone out there values him enough to give up something. Instead of taking the chance he goes bust, find someone who is in love with his tools and get what you can before the value disappears. I do think there are differences--Marsh had a valuable skill in the present (defense) that Philly wanted. Also they clearly saw something in his swing, All that said, I really do believe there are ~ 5 clubs out there who believe Adell just needs a change of scenery, they can fix him, or that at 23 he has room to grow. 

It could be a change of scenery exchange (Ian Anderson, Nate Pearson, Sixto Sanchez?) or what might be considered selling low (Maeda, Carrasco (BILLY!), S Gray). However, I actually think if they really wanted to--or if they believe in Moniak--they could find a buyer. 

I really like Adell, so I'd like to keep him and watch him build some consistency. But I'd be willing to trade him also if someone offered something of value. 

[Rollinghard]

No other team is going to buy the dream that he has hidden value. Why? Because he doesn't. The Angels have exposed him and his shortcomings bringing him up to face ml pitching. Defensively he is horrible in the outfield. Get him a new hitting coach and buy him a 1st baseman glove. 

[Second Base]

45 minutes ago, ThisismineScios said:

I like these options, but I think Perry could also take the Marsh route (I know there are differences, one sec). This guy may or may not figure it out, but someone out there values him enough to give up something. Instead of taking the chance he goes bust, find someone who is in love with his tools and get what you can before the value disappears. I do think there are differences--Marsh had a valuable skill in the present (defense) that Philly wanted. Also they clearly saw something in his swing, All that said, I really do believe there are ~ 5 clubs out there who believe Adell just needs a change of scenery, they can fix him, or that at 23 he has room to grow. 

It could be a change of scenery exchange (Ian Anderson, Nate Pearson, Sixto Sanchez?) or what might be considered selling low (Maeda, Carrasco (BILLY!), S Gray). However, I actually think if they really wanted to--or if they believe in Moniak--they could find a buyer. 

I really like Adell, so I'd like to keep him and watch him build some consistency. But I'd be willing to trade him also if someone offered something of value. 

I love the enthusiasm, and the logical take you just offered. @Rollinghard makes a good point, it might be difficult to find a team that still loves the skill set enough to offer something worthwhile. Pitchers that don't make good on all their potential, can still frequently turn into valuable bullpen pieces. But outfield prospects, they don't have an avenue toward success of they fail to make the adjustments. 

I don't think anyone else values him any more than a lottery ticket. And that's ok, because FWIW, I think he's eventually going to figure it out and develop into a major leaguer. I don't think he'll be a star, but I think he'll shorten up his swing and figure out something that works. And defensively, I think repetition, familiarity and not trying to do too much out there will eventually make him a passable fielder. 

[REDneck]

I would be a lot more patient with him if he could at least catch a fly ball in the OF.

Give him another year in AAA , But if they can package him with someone else for a worthwhile player I would do it.

 

 

 

[Vlad27Trout27]

it's not "what will the angels do, it's what will adell do! is trade value is crap! let him work it out in the minors and go from there.

[Docwaukee]

There's really nothing they should do with him except try to make him better.  It's still possible that he becomes a decent player.  And they need one.  I doubt his value decreases much more than it is right now by failing again.  

Even though I'm not overly optimistic about his future right now, I'll throw out a reason to keep him that is perhaps a little cause for optimism.  

His AAA stint last year showed a little improvement.  His K rate was still high and I think we can all agree that isn't going down.  But he had an 11% walk rate and while he hit .239, his babip was .273.  Way too low for a guy with his exit velo and speed.  And his ISO was the highest of any minor league stretch he's had.  So I think it's clear he's working on something relative to his pitch selection and perhaps even his swing.  Unfortunately, he still couldn't get it to translate.  

I'm gonna put my shrink hat on for a second and throw out some probably hogwash, but he needs to learn the difference between being a guy that could hit 40 home runs and a guy that's a 40 hr hitter.  Pitchers treat those two guys very differently.  One of them is extremely dangerous that pitchers are careful with.  They respect that guy.  The other is a guy who might run into one here and there but for the most part you don't have to worry too much because he'll mostly get himself out.  

He has to learn to at least hit mistakes over the wall.  Or at least hard somewhere.  Then when they start to treat him more carefully, he needs to spit on those pitches and let them go.  

[Warfarin]

2 hours ago, TempeAngel said:

Suarez as the setup guy for Estevez? WTF? 

You're not getting a quality SP for an Adell package, let alone two.

 

 

Read it again buddy.  It says “swing role” for Suarez, not setup.  
 

Quote

While there aren’t any glaring holes remaining on the club, they could certainly benefit from adding another starter who could push Jose Suarez into a swing role, a late-inning reliever to join Carlos Estevez at the back of the bullpen, or a more surefire shortstop than their currently available options of Luis Rengifo, Gio Urshela, and David Fletcher. 

 

[Warfarin]

I don’t know.  How hard is it to teach plate discipline and pitch recognition?  It’s not impossible, as we see others make strides with regards to this, but I imagine it is not easy.

We know Adell can obliterate pitches he hits, but we also know he is very poor at the above.  Can they have him focus solely on pitch recognition in AAA next year and tell him that his only focus next year should be to learn to swing only at strikes and “his pitches” to drive?  And to not worry if he hits a weak grounder, but what really matters is he makes significant progress in his greatest weakness?

I don’t know.  But he has to learn it - it is his only pathway to becoming a good MLB player.

[TempeAngel]

2 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Read it again buddy.  It says “swing role” for Suarez, not setup.  

You're right, I missed the comma between the two.

Still, thinking you could trade Adell to get a starting pitcher better than Suarez, or a SS, or a quality set up guy seems to be out of touch with Adell's current value.

Edited December 31, 2022 by TempeAngel

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, TempeAngel said:

You're right, I missed the comma between the two.

Still, thinking you could get a starting pitcher better than Suarez for Adell right seems to be out of touch with Adell's current value.

I agree, at least currently.  I think the most likely option is to just put Adell in AAA and hope he shows significant plate discipline improvement throughout the year, along with somewhat improved defense.  If they trade him now, I am assuming they would do it with the belief that he will be a total bust, and they might as well get a few pennies on the dollar instead of none.

[cals]

No value?  I’ve never seen anyone do the shimmy around 3rd base after a meaningless HR better than Adell.  

[Duren, Duren]

We're the scouts wrong? Did they value athleticism over actual baseball skills? Power over consistency? And ignore fielding altogether? 

There was so much hype that his reputation must have been based on some tangibles. But it seems that the difference between amateur and lower level pro versus higher leagues has exposed his flaws way more than anticipated. And maybe there are other issues that have factored into not progressing as projected. Confidence, learnability, lack of quality coaching maybe. 

Which proves scouting is an inexact profession. Every sport has high end picks who fail for various reasons that weren't anticipated when drafted.

Jo can still make himself into a decent roster player if he can reduce his worst flaws to an acceptable level. He never will emerge as a natural, but he can work on basic things by intensive, repetition and helpful advice. Pitch recognition, patience, stance adjustment, situational hitting and trusting his innate power. In the outfield, studying swings and following the ball off the bat. Learning and practicing the dimensions and trajectories at as many parks as possible but especially home field. 

No doubt he has been doing variations of these and other things for some time. But what else can anyone do but practice and study? Players do mature in unexpected ways after struggling for some time. So we shall see where this all leads. One way or another. 

 

 

[TempeAngel]

The play with Adell remains fairly obvious to me. He's only 23 so it's too early to give up on him. He has limited trade value but he has an option so he can start the season in SLC and play everyday.

[cgoldangel]

I think there were a few Angels last year that really struggled with whatever the hitting instructors were teaching. Walsh, Stassi, Marsh, Adell and others seemed to have a really weird approach where they were taking fastballs over the plate (even on two strike counts) and swinging at off speed pitches that were not close to the plate. I am hopeful the new hitting coaches in Anaheim and at SLC can help Adell improve his approach.  Marsh looked better in just a short time with the Phillies although still looked lost part of the time.  Give Adell the time to make some adjustments with hopefully a better instructor(s) and see if he can become a better player for next year.   Not sure we can get much for him now.

[Pancake Bear]

1 minute ago, cgoldangel said:

Marsh looked better in just a short time with the Phillies although still looked lost part of the time.

I think it was @Trendonwho noticed that Maddon's book talked about Minasian trying to get Marsh to work on a swing change and Maddon was causing problems over it. First thing after he gets traded, the Phillies hitting coach notices an issue, has Marsh tweak something in his swing, and he starts hitting a decent bit better. 

Also worth noting that Maddon was upset about Ward privately using analytics to work on his swing and claimed that Ward improved when he gave that up. But Ward said actually it was after that when he went even more into analytics to work on his swing that he really improved. 

Maddon's book indicated that certain coaches under him had complaints about the intrusion of the front office into coaching matters. Coincidentally, after the season, the hitting coaches were all let go and replaced.

Bottom line, I think Maddon and the hitting coaches were holding the team back a lot and preventing progress from being made. Maddon was too stuck in the past and couldn't accept the way things are done these days. Hopefully the offense will improve more as a result of the coaching staff being more directly connected and in sync with the front office. 

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

I think it was @Trendonwho noticed that Maddon's book talked about Minasian trying to get Marsh to work on a swing change and Maddon was causing problems over it. First thing after he gets traded, the Phillies hitting coach notices an issue, has Marsh tweak something in his swing, and he starts hitting a decent bit better. 

Also worth noting that Maddon was upset about Ward privately using analytics to work on his swing and claimed that Ward improved when he gave that up. But Ward said actually it was after that when he went even more into analytics to work on his swing that he really improved. 

Maddon's book indicated that certain coaches under him had complaints about the intrusion of the front office into coaching matters. Coincidentally, after the season, the hitting coaches were all let go and replaced.

Bottom line, I think Maddon and the hitting coaches were holding the team back a lot and preventing progress from being made. Maddon was too stuck in the past and couldn't accept the way things are done these days. Hopefully the offense will improve more as a result of the coaching staff being more directly connected and in sync with the front office. 

Agreed.  Discord between the FO and manager is just confusing to the players.  

I'm definitely curious on how a fresh pair of eyes can impact Adell and others.  Fletcher is one of them.  How do we get that 8% walk rate back, and why the F did he have a 15 degree launch angle last year?  The highest of his career which resulted in a FB rate of 40%.  a 30+% increase over his career avg.  And it's almost the complete opposite for Stassi who should be hitting the ball in the air but he went to a decrease LA and a 52.3% GB rate.  And his LD rate was 9.9%.  Yet most of his other metrics held steady.  Why was he hitting the ball on the ground?  

Maybe the hitting coach mixed up Stassi and Fletcher.  

I still think Walsh is gonna end up fine if he's truly recovered from his injury.  He had a near .800 ops until late june then just tanked.  

The biggest wild card is gonna be Rengifo.  He seemed to flourish by being more aggressive.  Hopefully he can marry that with the very strong PD he had in the minors.  Don't want to see him get overly HR conscious.  

And finally, my double secret sleeper for a sneaky good year at the dish.  Matt Thaiss.  I think they're gonna keep him as the backup C.  

 

[Warfarin]

7 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

I think it was @Trendonwho noticed that Maddon's book talked about Minasian trying to get Marsh to work on a swing change and Maddon was causing problems over it. First thing after he gets traded, the Phillies hitting coach notices an issue, has Marsh tweak something in his swing, and he starts hitting a decent bit better. 

Also worth noting that Maddon was upset about Ward privately using analytics to work on his swing and claimed that Ward improved when he gave that up. But Ward said actually it was after that when he went even more into analytics to work on his swing that he really improved. 

Maddon's book indicated that certain coaches under him had complaints about the intrusion of the front office into coaching matters. Coincidentally, after the season, the hitting coaches were all let go and replaced.

Bottom line, I think Maddon and the hitting coaches were holding the team back a lot and preventing progress from being made. Maddon was too stuck in the past and couldn't accept the way things are done these days. Hopefully the offense will improve more as a result of the coaching staff being more directly connected and in sync with the front office. 

100% this.  In the current era of baseball, it is so vital to have a manager and FO that works collaboratively and shares viewpoints, etc.  If the manager disagrees with the FO's "instruction" of trying to use analytics (and scouting) to help improve a player's swing and pitching, then that's terrible for player development.  

Maddon sounded like he basically just aged himself out of the game.  Most of the decision making occurs in the FO, and the manager is mainly responsible for maintaining clubhouse cohesion and essentially serving as the middle man to help relay information back and forth between the FO and players.  

I noticed that they basically overhauled the entire hitting coaches in the offseason as well.  I think they even hired a minor league hitting coordinator now, too, or something along those lines.

But anyway, imagine how confusing it must be as a player to receive some form of coaching in the minors, get promoted and told to do the opposite by your manager, but then have the FO try to get involved and give a different set of advice?  Confusing as hell.

[Warfarin]

5 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

Agreed.  Discord between the FO and manager is just confusing to the players.  

I'm definitely curious on how a fresh pair of eyes can impact Adell and others.  Fletcher is one of them.  How do we get that 8% walk rate back, and why the F did he have a 15 degree launch angle last year?  The highest of his career which resulted in a FB rate of 40%.  a 30+% increase over his career avg.  And it's almost the complete opposite for Stassi who should be hitting the ball in the air but he went to a decrease LA and a 52.3% GB rate.  And his LD rate was 9.9%.  Yet most of his other metrics held steady.  Why was he hitting the ball on the ground?  

Maybe the hitting coach mixed up Stassi and Fletcher.  

I still think Walsh is gonna end up fine if he's truly recovered from his injury.  He had a near .800 ops until late june then just tanked.  

The biggest wild card is gonna be Rengifo.  He seemed to flourish by being more aggressive.  Hopefully he can marry that with the very strong PD he had in the minors.  Don't want to see him get overly HR conscious.  

And finally, my double secret sleeper for a sneaky good year at the dish.  Matt Thaiss.  I think they're gonna keep him as the backup C.  

 

That's why I am optimistic about the team.  I feel a lot of internal growth can occur simply by having some of the hitters that we had who regressed significantly have some positive regression now, so to speak.

Minasian believed in both Fletcher and Stassi enough to give them contracts, similar to the Braves' model of buying out players first few years of free agency early.  Both have regressed.  What happened?  Can they recapture their form?  People have seemingly given up on Fletcher, but there's obviously faith there from the FO.  He is a good defensive SS (not elite, but certainly above average).  With some modest offensive gains, he could be a very valuable player, and maybe the FO opted to give him another shot at SS, believing they can help him get there.

I think Walsh will be fine if healthy.  He's had a long enough track record to indicate he is an above average player.

Thaiss - I'm not sure.  The decision of whether to keep him as the backup C will entirely rest on how comfortable the FO is with his ability to handle the defensive duties well - pitch sequencing, framing, handling a pitching staff, etc.  I don't really have much insight as to how they view him, but given he just recently switched back to the position, I am not sure how good he is at those things now after not doing it for years.

[Stradling]

I kinda see it as they’ll choose Thaiss or Walsh to be on the roster but not both. 

[Warfarin]

11 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I kinda see it as they’ll choose Thaiss or Walsh to be on the roster but not both. 

You think if Thaiss wins a job as the backup catcher they will option Walsh to the minors?  I don't see the two as linked.  I think for Thaiss, it will simply be if he can handle duties as a backup catcher (defensively speaking).

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

You think if Thaiss wins a job as the backup catcher they will option Walsh to the minors?  I don't see the two as linked.  I think for Thaiss, it will simply be if he can handle duties as a backup catcher (defensively speaking).

I don’t think Thaiss will make the team as a back up catcher. Unless there’s some sort of team control implication for having O’Hoppe start the season in the minors for a few weeks. My belief is the Angels will either acquire a veteran catcher or start the season with O’Hoppe.