It all comes down to the bullpen

[Warfarin]

54 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Seriously. This is something you guys recall I harped on last year.

A bad offense infects the bullpen, because it means you have less margin for error and need to use your top guys more often, which makes them less effective.

I remember a ton of games when the starter left with a 3-2 or 2-1 lead after 5 and then the offense just didn't score again. It's hard to hold a one-run lead for four innings. And if your best relievers are pitching for the third time in four days, or unavailable because they've already pitched two days in a row, it's even more difficult.

Improving the bullpen doesn't help the offense, but improving the offense helps the bullpen.

Exactly.  If you score more runs, there is less need to deploy your high leverage relievers.  The outings become less stressful, etc etc.  

[Angel Oracle]

3 hours ago, Hubs said:

I'd bet that Joyce is up by midseason. And at least one more underrated guy.

If Murphy can improve the control (5.3 BBs/9 innings), he should join Joyce up here by mid-season.

44 innings, only 25 hits and 52 Ks

Plus the SEC experience at Vandy

Edited December 22, 2022 by Angel Oracle

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Seriously. This is something you guys recall I harped on last year.

A bad offense infects the bullpen, because it means you have less margin for error and need to use your top guys more often, which makes them less effective.

I remember a ton of games when the starter left with a 3-2 or 2-1 lead after 5 and then the offense just didn't score again. It's hard to hold a one-run lead for four innings. And if your best relievers are pitching for the third time in four days, or unavailable because they've already pitched two days in a row, it's even more difficult.

Improving the bullpen doesn't help the offense, but improving the offense helps the bullpen.

wouldn't it all just trickle down though?  those games where you're losing 6-1 and put in some scrub now become 6-5 and you have to use your top guy.  Or when the starter exits with a one run lead and the other team scores 4 runs yet the offense didn't score to keep up, now they're going to.  

For every game that a better offense increases your lead, there one where it gets you closer or puts you in the lead when you normally wouldn't have been.  In fact, I would argue that a better offense puts more stress on the pen because you're likely going to have more leads.   Even they're big leads because holding a four run lead is more stressful than maintaining a 4 run deficit.  And it's even more important to maintain small deficits when you have a good offense because you know they could come back.  

[Angelsfan1984]

7 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

wouldn't it all just trickle down though?  those games where you're losing 6-1 and put in some scrub now become 6-5 and you have to use your top guy.  Or when the starter exits with a one run lead and the other team scores 4 runs yet the offense didn't score to keep up, now they're going to.  

For every game that a better offense increases your lead, there one where it gets you closer or puts you in the lead when you normally wouldn't have been.  In fact, I would argue that a better offense puts more stress on the pen because you're likely going to have more leads.   Even they're big leads because holding a four run lead is more stressful than maintaining a 4 run deficit.  And it's even more important to maintain small deficits when you have a good offense because you know they could come back.  

How would having a big lead cause more work for the pen? The starter would likely stay in longer….instead of getting pulled in the 4th. Starters getting blown up or offenses that don’t score cause the necessity for the overuse of a bp

[Hubs]

Ortega being the one who was DFA for Drury is freaking stupid. 

Velazquez makes way more sense. 

So does Jose Marte.

 

[Pancake Bear]

1 minute ago, Hubs said:

Ortega being the one who was DFA for Drury is freaking stupid. 

Velazquez makes way more sense. 

So does Jose Marte.

 

Presumably they want Velazquez for defense/base running?

[Hubs]

2 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Presumably they want Velazquez for defense/base running?

I dont see a spot for him on the roster unless they carry only 7 arms in the pen. So he's gonna get sent to AAA if he's got an option left.  They have soto (also in AAA likely) so he's Redundant.

 

 

[Docwaukee]

14 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

How would having a big lead cause more work for the pen? The starter would likely stay in longer….instead of getting pulled in the 4th. Starters getting blown up or offenses that don’t score cause the necessity for the overuse of a bp

it doesn't.  I didn't write that anywhere.  

[Angelsfan1984]

4 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

it doesn't.  I didn't write that anywhere.  

“  In fact, I would argue that a better offense puts more stress on the pen because you're likely going to have more leads”

in fact you did

[Hubs]

This doesn't track. At least for relievers in the 6-8 innings.  Knowing you're on a razors edge with a lead if you blow it is way more stress. 

1 minute ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

  In fact, I would argue that a better offense puts more stress on the pen because you're likely going to have more leads

 

[Docwaukee]

17 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

The starter would likely stay in longer….instead of getting pulled in the 4th. Starters getting blown up or offenses that don’t score cause the necessity for the overuse of a bp

how does the offense not scoring always cause the bullpen to get overused?  If you're losing 9-1, some scrub is gonna come in and it doesn't matter if he makes it 14-1.  Again, there are plenty of games that'll now be 7-7 instead of 7-1.  

And for every game where a struggling starter doesn't need to get pulled because it's 9-3 instead of 5-3, there will be games where he does because it's 6-4 instead of 6-1. 

The point is that it likely cancels out.    

[Angelsfan1984]

2 minutes ago, Hubs said:

This doesn't track. At least for relievers in the 6-8 innings.  Knowing you're on a razors edge with a lead if you blow it is way more stress. 

 

I was quoting him. Didn’t paste properly 

[Angelsfan1984]

1 minute ago, Docwaukee said:

how does the offense not scoring always cause the bullpen to get overused?  If you're losing 9-1, some scrub is gonna come in and it doesn't matter if he makes it 14-1.  Again, there are plenty of games that'll now be 7-7 instead of 7-1.  

And for every game where a struggling starter doesn't need to get pulled because it's 9-3 instead of 5-3, there will be games where he does because it's 6-4 instead of 6-1. 

The point is that it likely cancels out.    

If you’re getting blown out…yes it evens out. If your offense isn’t scoring but your pitcher is doing well, then it may cause manager to go to the pen for matchups or pitch count. If you’re scoring a ton, sure you could occasionally use a mop up, but more than likely the starter has a longer leash.

[Docwaukee]

11 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

“  In fact, I would argue that a better offense puts more stress on the pen because you're likely going to have more leads”

in fact you did

I didn't write big lead.  learn to read.  

[Angelsfan1984]

12 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

I didn't write big lead.  learn to read.  

Okie dokie doc. Negate the intent of your point about the inclusion of an adjective. You’ve got one hell of an ego on you…

[ukyah]

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

I think you deploy pitchers where their current abilities most impact the team. I think Rodriguez could be a very good starter, but this team has no bullpen. It's a big gamble on Minasian's part trying to enter the season with the relief core in disarray. So maybe you consider using Rod in relief until the depth is there for him to transition back to a starter. 

And definitely sign Garrett Richards. It would be fun having him back, and while he hasn't succeeded in relief yet, it feels like just a matter of time.  

everything about richards is unrealized potential. no thank you.

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Docwaukee said:

wouldn't it all just trickle down though?  those games where you're losing 6-1 and put in some scrub now become 6-5 and you have to use your top guy.  Or when the starter exits with a one run lead and the other team scores 4 runs yet the offense didn't score to keep up, now they're going to.  

For every game that a better offense increases your lead, there one where it gets you closer or puts you in the lead when you normally wouldn't have been.  In fact, I would argue that a better offense puts more stress on the pen because you're likely going to have more leads.   Even they're big leads because holding a four run lead is more stressful than maintaining a 4 run deficit.  And it's even more important to maintain small deficits when you have a good offense because you know they could come back.  

I think it’s not going to cancel out because you’re going to win more blowouts, which means you don’t need the top relievers at all. When the offense isn’t good, you only win close games so the top relievers need to pitch just about every time for you to win. 
 

Let me try to run some numbers though. 

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Ortega being the one who was DFA for Drury is freaking stupid. 

Velazquez makes way more sense. 

So does Jose Marte.

 

This might be why he got DFA’d, potentially 

[Docwaukee]

50 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Okie dokie doc. Negate the intent of your point about the inclusion of an adjective. You’ve got one hell of an ego on you…

it wasn't the point of my post and I specifically didn't say big leads for a reason.  How are you having a hard time with this.  I made a point to state that there would be more leads.  Just in general.  If I had said BIG leads, it would have made my argument completely false.  And my ego?  That's laughable.  You called me out for something I didn't even state and then argued with me about it that it was my intent even though it wasn't.  You may want to rethink who's got the big ego in this case.  

[Docwaukee]

14 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I think it’s not going to cancel out because you’re going to win more blowouts, which means you don’t need the top relievers at all. When the offense isn’t good, you only win close games so the top relievers need to pitch just about every time for you to win. 
 

Let me try to run some numbers though. 

Could be.  Was wondering that myself and was trying to run some numbers as well.  Like maybe the top offenses used their top guys less.  But that didn't seem to be the case.   Maybe they used their crappy guys less or maybe they just had fewer crappy guys.  

WAR for relievers also includes a leverage component.  So one thing I thought to look at was what the average leverage index was when they entered the game as a team and how that related to whether the team had a good offense.  The Yankees (one of the top offenses) had the highest gmLI in baseball.  The Angels were 3rd.  The Dogs (another top offense) was 27th and WSN was dead last.  So it seems all over the place in terms of stress on a bullpen.  

[Angel Oracle]

I get keeping Marte over Ortega.

Marte in past 85 innings since 2021 across minors and majors: almost 1.5 Ks per inning, 7.4 hits per 9 innings, and only 6 HRs allowed.

But if he wants to stay in the org, he better improve significantly the BBs (almost 6 BBs per 9 innings).

[Warfarin]

4 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I get keeping Marte over Ortega.

Marte in past 85 innings since 2021 across minors and majors: almost 1.5 Ks per inning, 7.4 hits per 9 innings, and only 6 HRs allowed.

But if he wants to stay in the org, he better improve significantly the BBs (almost 6 BBs per 9 innings).

I think we still have some players who can be fairly easily DFA'd without too much concern.  Marte has some potential, but he probably fits that category too.  

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Hubs said:

Ortega being the one who was DFA for Drury is freaking stupid. 

Velazquez makes way more sense. 

So does Jose Marte.

 

There is something physically wrong with him.  Also, Ortega was anything but established.  He was a pop up guy that went from fringe roster cut to potential RP by virtue of a hot streak -- he's the poster child for the premise of RP volatility in some ways.  Robinson Pina and Jose Soriano could be Oliver Ortega this year.  That's the other long time premise -- failed starters make good RPs.

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Let me try to run some numbers though. 

And put it an article form.

 You might as well get paid for the extra work. 

[BTH]

7 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

There is something physically wrong with him.  Also, Ortega was anything but established.  He was a pop up guy that went from fringe roster cut to potential RP by virtue of a hot streak -- he's the poster child for the premise of RP volatility in some ways.  Robinson Pina and Jose Soriano could be Oliver Ortega this year.  That's the other long time premise -- failed starters make good RPs.

There’s something physically wrong with who? Ortega?