It all comes down to the bullpen

[Docwaukee]

I would say that the offense/defense and the starting pitching are good.  Good enough to where they are playoff worthy if nothing catastrophic happens from an injury standpoint.  Granted, we seen that occur in the past, but just got to keep those fingers crossed.  There is still a bit of work that could be done to improve those two areas but it's likely to be marginal at this point.  An innings eater.  Perhaps a better backup catcher.  A legit 4th OFer.  

But where the rubber meets the road is gonna be about who toes the mound from about the 6th inning on.  It would certainly be helpful if the rotation could increase their innings load some without a dip in performance.  Particularly Detmers, Suarez, and Sandoval.  Last year we ended up with the fourth most pen innings.  But only about 40 innings away from being in the middle of the pack which I think is easily doable.  And even more so if they add another SPer.  

Right now, I think we're all very aware of the current projections.  They're ugly for the halos.  And while they're just projections, I did a look back and most of the time the projections were fairly consistent with where the teams ended up in the rankings by WAR at the end of the season.  

So right out of the gate, they're working uphill.  For the most part, these projection are pretty conservative.  Which makes it all the more troubling that the Angels are so low.  One of the main reasons is the true lack of track record.  Most teams have at least one if not two guys with a history.  So while Jimmy Herget had a great year in 2022, he has literally no track record otherwise.

It's doubtful that some known bad ass is added to the pen prior to the start of the season.  So we're likely stuck with a bunch of no names and unprovens.  But there are a couple ways where this can end up being effective.  

First, you've got to find those two or three guys you can lean on late.  This is by far the most critical.  

Then, you need good seasons from the guys you're paying a bit more than others.  Loup and Tepera were massive disappointments last year.  But this year I think they can get away with them just being better instead of relying on them to be great.  

After that, it's tryouts.  I remember this from the MS days where it would take him a couple months to figure out who he was gonna use when.  I suspect there's going to be a lot of tweaking and experimenting in the first part of the season.  

My guess is that Estevez comes out of the gate as the closer.  
Some combo of Quijada, Herget, Loup, Tepera will get looks in the 7th and 8th.  
Barria will assume the same role as mop up guy
And it wouldn't totally surprise me if Wantz took a bit of a step forward.  I think he starts as that medium leverage sort of dude in the like 6th and sometimes 7th.
Davidson is kinda the wildcard.  His first relief appearance since rookie ball as a reliever was last year and it was his first appearance of the year with Atlanta.  While they might keep him as a long guy or do some sort of tandem thing (which I think we heard through the grapevine), I wouldn't mind them trying him out as more of a true reliever.  

Here comes the next important part.  You can't be afraid to kick a guy to the curb if they aren't performing.  A collection of crap over 15 or so innings?  See ya.  Beat it.  Goodbye.  Even guys like Loop and Tepera.  You become mop up in blowouts or you get released.  They can't afford to gut their way through inferior performance and they've got a bunch of guys waiting in the wings.   I would say that if they break camp with 14 pitchers in a few months, there are likely 6 spots taken barring injury.  Which leave another 2-3 depending on what they do with the rotation between now and then.  

Wantz is in that bubble as is Davidson

Others on the bubble that could actually break camp with the team are Garza, Devenski, Warren, Ortega, Ingram, Marte, Torres, Joyce, Murphy, and of course, Chris Rodriguez.  

I was about to profile each of them but it kinda doesn't matter.  All of them need to figure something out in some way but I will say, any one of them could end up better than anyone slated for the pen right now.  

And that wouldn't bother me as long as they continue to actively work through all of their options.  

It doesn't make sense statistically that they'll end up as bad as they're projected as I doubt they let those guys performing at a replacement level get nearly the number of innings they're projected for.  And that's the key.  

A pretty damn short leash for everyone.  Because if this crew is going to perform at the level that both the offense and SP are capable, it's gonna need a fair amount of TLC/maintenance.  

 

 

 

[greginpsca]

I think Marte will be the first one kicked to the curb. He has a history of giving up way too many walks. And that history is so consistent, I doubt that could change overnight.

[BTH]

22 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

First, you've got to find those two or three guys you can lean on late.  This is by far the most critical.  

I’d guess that Nevin starts out the season trusting the same group he trusted at the end of last season. That was Herget, Quijada, Tepera, and Loup. Wantz was 5th on the depth chart. Estévez likely joins that group.

[BTH]

Having a better offense should also help.

Herget, Quijada, Estévez, Loup, and Tepera aren’t guys I can easily trust with a one-run lead. But I can trust them with a 3 run lead.

[ukyah]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

Having a better offense should also help.

Herget, Quijada, Estévez, Loup, and Tepera aren’t guys I can easily trust with a one-run lead. But I can trust them with a 3 run lead.

famous last words.

but seriously, i'm going to lean that the bullpen is going to be better than expected. angels are getting close to being a good all around team, they just need to polish it up a bit and have some good luck for a change.

[Docwaukee]

I kinda glossed over the mention of Chris Rodriguez, but he could be a game changer for this bullpen.  

[mmc]

[tdawg87]

5 hours ago, mmc said:

Are these available FA relievers? Chad Green is interesting.

[Warfarin]

6 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

I kinda glossed over the mention of Chris Rodriguez, but he could be a game changer for this bullpen.  

He could, and actually, so could Joyce.  Joyce was thought of as a guy that teams could draft and literally stick in their bullpen the same year as the draft, if they were so inclined.  He obviously didn't pitch many innings with us in AA, but they were effective.

I would put CRod in the pen, as I really don't have any faith he can hold up with a SP load.  If you put those two in the bullpen, and you have a pen of Estevez, Joyce, Herget, Quijada, Loup, Tepera, CRod, Barria .. while most are sparse on track record, that actually COULD be a rather solid pen.  

That said, the smart thing to do is to not bet on CRod and give Joyce probably at least a few more months in the minors to work on his slider.  So I'd like to see them add at least one more significant reliever, and then they can leave the rest up to ST competition.

It is not the best pen, but It think there's pretty good potential in it.  We actually have some promising minor league talent, such that I think both SP and RP look like they will ultimately be in good shape, in terms of organizational health.

[Warfarin]

8 hours ago, Trendon said:

Having a better offense should also help.

Herget, Quijada, Estévez, Loup, and Tepera aren’t guys I can easily trust with a one-run lead. But I can trust them with a 3 run lead.

Yeah, I understand.  I think all of them could be good, but truthfully, that's the tricky thing with bullpens - pitchers can be rather good one year, then not the next, as we saw with Loup last year.  I think that's a key part of what Doc said too - if they are struggling, there should be little hesitation to demote / cut them (depending on their situation).  

[Angels 1961]

6 hours ago, mmc said:

I like Michael Fulmer, Petit not on list

[oldguy]

7 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

I kinda glossed over the mention of Chris Rodriguez, but he could be a game changer for this bullpen.  

Agree.  I haven't seen spin-rate like his from an Angel's pitcher since......Garrett Richards!

[wopphil]

The staff as a whole needs a couple more arms. Ideally that would be a good starter (Eovaldi) and a good pen piece. More realistically, I think they add two pen pieces - perhaps another signing, and perhaps an unexpected trade. 

[Warfarin]

35 minutes ago, wopphil said:

The staff as a whole needs a couple more arms. Ideally that would be a good starter (Eovaldi) and a good pen piece. More realistically, I think they add two pen pieces - perhaps another signing, and perhaps an unexpected trade. 

I think they'll sign a SP.  We have 5 good ones, but considering we intend to use 6, our depth can thin out fairly quickly with an injury or two.  If we assume Silseth takes the 6th spot, then our depth is Canning (injury concerns/unknown), Davis (??), CRod (probably a reliever, huge injury concerns), and .. Bush?  Davidson?  Diaz?  Rosenberg?

If we sign one of the remaining SP options, then that pushes everyone down one, which is probably needed for depth purposes.

[BTH]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Are these available FA relievers? Chad Green is interesting.

Green had Tommy John surgery last season, so he’ll be out until mid-season at least.

[Hubs]

I like most of @Docwaukee's posts, we usually agree on most everything. And I can say without a doubt that he is 100% correct here. 

I think they will sign one more veteran reliever to a similar contract as Loup/Tepera/Estevez. It wouldn't surprise me if it was a RP/SP guy like Lugo, whom they have been rumored in on before he went to the Padres. But I also wouldn't be shocked for them to get a guy or two on minor league deals. 

I will remind everyone that the opening day pen in 2002 was drastically different than the WS pen, and four of the guys that made that bullpen special didn't start the season in the bullpen. Only Ben Weber and Troy Percival did. Schoeneweis was a starter. Shields and Donnelly in the minors. Frankie started in the minors. 

Dennis Cook and Al Levine were supposed to be the two main setup guys, both were veterans. Cook had 33 appearances through the first half and just four in the second. He was quite good, but injury I think kept him off the team and I don't think he was on the playoff roster either. Levine pitched more but also wasn't the main set-up guy.

Lou Pote was done by July 19th.

 

 

 

[Hubs]

Just now, Hubs said:

I like most of @Docwaukee's posts, we usually agree on most everything. And I can say without a doubt that he is 100% correct here. 

I think they will sign one more veteran reliever to a similar contract as Loup/Tepera/Estevez. It wouldn't surprise me if it was a RP/SP guy like Lugo, whom they have been rumored in on before he went to the Padres. But I also wouldn't be shocked for them to get a guy or two on minor league deals. 

I will remind everyone that the opening day pen in 2002 was drastically different than the WS pen, and four of the guys that made that bullpen special didn't start the season in the bullpen. Only Ben Weber and Troy Percival did. Schoeneweis was a starter. Shields and Donnelly in the minors. Frankie started in the minors. 

Dennis Cook and Al Levine were supposed to be the two main setup guys, both were veterans. Cook had 33 appearances through the first half and just four in the second. He was quite good, but injury I think kept him off the team and I don't think he was on the playoff roster either. Levine pitched more but also wasn't the main set-up guy.

Lou Pote was done by July 19th.

 

 

 

I'd bet that Joyce is up by midseason. And at least one more underrated guy.

[Jeff Fletcher]

14 hours ago, Trendon said:

Having a better offense should also help.

Seriously. This is something you guys recall I harped on last year.

A bad offense infects the bullpen, because it means you have less margin for error and need to use your top guys more often, which makes them less effective.

I remember a ton of games when the starter left with a 3-2 or 2-1 lead after 5 and then the offense just didn't score again. It's hard to hold a one-run lead for four innings. And if your best relievers are pitching for the third time in four days, or unavailable because they've already pitched two days in a row, it's even more difficult.

Improving the bullpen doesn't help the offense, but improving the offense helps the bullpen.

[Angel Oracle]

13 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

I kinda glossed over the mention of Chris Rodriguez, but he could be a game changer for this bullpen.  

If he can ever stay healthy long enough.

[Second Base]

I think you deploy pitchers where their current abilities most impact the team. I think Rodriguez could be a very good starter, but this team has no bullpen. It's a big gamble on Minasian's part trying to enter the season with the relief core in disarray. So maybe you consider using Rod in relief until the depth is there for him to transition back to a starter. 

And definitely sign Garrett Richards. It would be fun having him back, and while he hasn't succeeded in relief yet, it feels like just a matter of time.  

[BTH]

Just now, Second Base said:

And definitely sign Garrett Richards. It would be fun having him back, and while he hasn't succeeded in relief yet, it feels like just a matter of time.  

I don’t think that’d happen after the Kay trial.

 

[tdawg87]

4 hours ago, Trendon said:

Green had Tommy John surgery last season, so he’ll be out until mid-season at least.

Shit.

[Second Base]

5 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I don’t think that’d happen after the Kay trial.

 

Heaney is still gainfully employed. 

[BTH]

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Heaney is still gainfully employed. 

But not by the Angels

[Second Base]

Just now, Trendon said:

But not by the Angels

Terrible premise. That's like saying the Angels want no involvement with Trout or Ohtani because they could potentially be implicated too. 

Heaney isn't an Angel because of on the field circumstances and performance, not not because Skaggs.