How much will Jarred Walsh get in his first year of arbitration?

[Angels 1961]

With new ownership coming in I wonder if halos tender him a contract. Could they use him as trade bait? Thaiss could play 1B and be a catcher. Just wondering if Moreno wants to cut payroll as much as he can before sale.

[jsnpritchett]

You go from wondering if the Angels are going to tender him a contract to asking if they could use him for trade bait.  If the former is even a consideration, then the obvious answer to the latter is "no".

[Angels 1961]

24 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

You go from wondering if the Angels are going to tender him a contract to asking if they could use him for trade bait.  If the former is even a consideration, then the obvious answer to the latter is "no".

You could trade him before offering him a contract. What I'm wondering is how much would he get in ABR year. Ohtani will be getting 25 to 30 million. Does Walsh get 2 mill, 3 mill or more.

[jsnpritchett]

Ohtani is going to get a lot more than $25M.  Arenado got $26M in his final arbitration year and Betts got $27M.  I expect $30M to be the floor if he actually goes to arbitration and doesn't sign an extension.

And Walsh would probably get $2M or so.

[Warfarin]

36 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Ohtani is going to get a lot more than $25M.  Arenado got $26M in his final arbitration year and Betts got $27M.  I expect $30M to be the floor if he actually goes to arbitration and doesn't sign an extension.

And Walsh would probably get $2M or so.

Agreed.  Ohtani will earn over 30mil in his final year of arbitration.  If we re-sign him, I would expect he'd exceed 35mil AAV - he is going to get a MONSTER deal.  I think if he does not sign with us, there is a pretty decent chance he might end up a Dodger.

As for Walsh - 2 mil sounds about right.  If he had a strong year, I would think he'd start off around 4-5mil, but given the year he had, something closer to 2mil sounds right.

It'll be interesting to see what Ward gets.  This year is clearly not in line with his previous years, and this year itself was rather uneven - amazing first two months, massive struggle after his return from injury, and now a solid final month.  Maybe around 4mil or so for Ward?

[jsnpritchett]

15 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Agreed.  Ohtani will earn over 30mil in his final year of arbitration.  If we re-sign him, I would expect he'd exceed 35mil AAV - he is going to get a MONSTER deal.  I think if he does not sign with us, there is a pretty decent chance he might end up a Dodger.

As for Walsh - 2 mil sounds about right.  If he had a strong year, I would think he'd start off around 4-5mil, but given the year he had, something closer to 2mil sounds right.

It'll be interesting to see what Ward gets.  This year is clearly not in line with his previous years, and this year itself was rather uneven - amazing first two months, massive struggle after his return from injury, and now a solid final month.  Maybe around 4mil or so for Ward?

Fangraphs has Ward and Sandoval as not eligible for arbitration until 2024.  I thought both were eligible next year, like Walsh.  Hmm...Baseball Reference makes it even more confusing, as they list all of Ward, Walsh, and Sandoval as eligible in '23 on their individual player pages--but then on the Angels payroll page, they have all of them as eligible in '24.

EDIT: ...and in one place, Spotrac has Ward and Sandoval as eligible in '23, but not Walsh--yet in another place on the site, all three are listed as ARB1 in '23, along with Rengifo, Barria, and others.  I give up...

Edited September 28, 2022 by jsnpritchett

[ukyah]

2 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

You could trade him before offering him a contract. What I'm wondering is how much would he get in ABR year. Ohtani will be getting 25 to 30 million. Does Walsh get 2 mill, 3 mill or more.

 

the guy was an all star last year. you want to cut him over him getting 2 or 3 million? what do you think his replacement would cost? 

of course they offer him a contract, and they'll give him an opportunity to hold on to his position, but they should also make sure they have a backup that can fucking play.

trading him is, admittedly, a possibility. but it would be more likely as part of a package and still a sell low scenario.

[BTH]

When I was looking at projected arb figures for the Angels' arb eligible players this offseason, the top comps I had come up with for Walsh were Rowdy Tellez ($1.9M) and Christian Walker ($2.6M).

Walsh fell off a cliff since and had surgery, which likely puts him in a weaker negotiating position than Tellez and Walker were at the same point in arbitration.

So it's probably somewhere between $1M-$1.75M.

If money is really tight, I think the Angels may need to consider non-tendering him (if they get a 1B upgrade).

Otherwise, keep him and have him in AAA as 1B/OF depth.

[Tank]

5 minutes ago, ukyah said:

 

the guy was an all star last year. you want to cut him over him getting 2 or 3 million? what do you think his replacement would cost? 

of course they offer him a contract, and they'll give him an opportunity to hold on to his position, but they should also make sure they have a backup that can fucking play.

trading him is, admittedly, a possibility. but it would be more likely as part of a package and still a sell low scenario.

yeah, I think they need to find out if he's recovered from his injury and back to putting up all star numbers. I wouldn't imagine they would move him until they know.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

It'll be interesting to see what Ward gets.  This year is clearly not in line with his previous years, and this year itself was rather uneven - amazing first two months, massive struggle after his return from injury, and now a solid final month.  Maybe around 4mil or so for Ward?

Some comps for Ward from other ARB1 outfielders:

O'Neill: $3.4M

Meadows: $4M

Slater: $1.9M

Santander $3.2M

So probably somewhere in the $3M range.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

Fangraphs has Ward and Sandoval as not eligible for arbitration until 2024.  I thought both were eligible next year, like Walsh.  Hmm...Baseball Reference makes it even more confusing, as they list all of Ward, Walsh, and Sandoval as eligible in '23 on their individual player pages--but then on the Angels payroll page, they have all of them as eligible in '24.

EDIT: ...and in one place, Spotrac has Ward and Sandoval as eligible in '23, but not Walsh--yet in another place on the site, all three are listed as ARB1 in '23, along with Rengifo, Barria, and others.  I give up...

Since Ward and Sandoval have both been in the majors the entire season, they'll each gain a year of service time.

That'll give Ward 2.164 years of service time and Sandoval 2.149 years of service time.

Last season, players who had 2.116 or more years of service time were arbitration eligible. That number isn't gonna go down, so both Ward and Sandoval will both be arbitration eligible.

They'll both be "super two players," which is why there's some discrepancy on different sites as to whether or not they are arb eligible.

[stormngt]

On 9/27/2022 at 8:49 PM, Warfarin said:

Agreed.  Ohtani will earn over 30mil in his final year of arbitration.  If we re-sign him, I would expect he'd exceed 35mil AAV - he is going to get a MONSTER deal.  I think if he does not sign with us, there is a pretty decent chance he might end up a Dodger.

As for Walsh - 2 mil sounds about right.  If he had a strong year, I would think he'd start off around 4-5mil, but given the year he had, something closer to 2mil sounds right.

It'll be interesting to see what Ward gets.  This year is clearly not in line with his previous years, and this year itself was rather uneven - amazing first two months, massive struggle after his return from injury, and now a solid final month.  Maybe around 4mil or so for Ward?

This is Wards first full season.  Does he qualify for arbitration?

[Blarg]

Service time is accumulated by games on the roster and not complete seasons. 

[BTH]

2 hours ago, stormngt said:

This is Wards first full season.  Does he qualify for arbitration?

 

On 9/27/2022 at 10:44 PM, Trendon said:

Since Ward and Sandoval have both been in the majors the entire season, they'll each gain a year of service time.

That'll give Ward 2.164 years of service time and Sandoval 2.149 years of service time.

Last season, players who had 2.116 or more years of service time were arbitration eligible. That number isn't gonna go down, so both Ward and Sandoval will both be arbitration eligible.

They'll both be "super two players," which is why there's some discrepancy on different sites as to whether or not they are arb eligible.

 

[Torridd]

I'd like to keep Walsh to see if he bounces back. I'd really like to save the money on other more needed positions like SS and P. I love Walsh's defense and would like to see how he comes back healthy.

[ukyah]

getting rid of walsh for this small amount of money is a huge mistake. make him a bench player if you want to sign a big 1b. he'd be the exact type of player you'd want to come off the bench, but you don't release him. that would be folly.

[Blarg]

There is no reason to think Walsh won't bounce back to 2021 form now after corrective surgery. He's only 29, not 35 and has little injury history.