Go all in - gut the farm and pay Ohtani.

[Docwaukee]

Ok, so hear me out because this might sound a little crazy at first.  Let me preface this that it kinda goes against every bone in my body.  I love the idea of building the team through the farm and creating a sustainable model of success for years and years.   Like what we used to do.  

But we've got to break the cycle somehow.  Because no matter what's been done, the timing is off and they end up missing players or ignoring deficiencies in key areas.  We've been going through this half-assed rebuild/try to compete circle jerk for the last 5-6 years at least.  

And then we end up with some sort of combo of generational players plus guys who still need to cut their teeth but have potential, to guys we pick up off waivers that we draw a moustache in hopes that we can get them to be someone they've never been.  

Many have proposed a traditional rebuild, but those suck.   They take 5 years.  Or longer.  Trade Ohtani for a bunch of guys 'close to the majors'.  And that's part of the problem.  We keep needing certain guys to be better than they're ready to be.  We needed Ward and Sandoval and others to be as good as they are now...but like two years ago.  Now we're going to jack around with Adell, Rengifo, Silseth, Davidson, Suarez etc.  And then we're gonna wait for Neto and Bachman and Ohoppe to contribute?  When?  2-3 years from now?  

We have about 100 guys in this org right now with actual present or future value.  And they're on like 25 different clocks.  Align the talent cycles (yes, I'm waiting for everyone's awesome jokes on this).  

So I have no real idea how to do it, but I'll make something up.  

Trout, Ohtani, Rendon aren't going anywhere.  I would give Shohei a monster deal for 24/25 with an opt out after.  I think it's the only way you might keep him for now.  

I'm for sure keeping Sandoval and Detmers.  And Taylor Ward unless someone gives me an oddly high return that I could then flip for a better player.  But he's pretty good.  

I'm also keeping Stassi.  Premium catchers don't typically come available.  Upgrade would be tough and cost a shit ton.  But for the love of everything decent and holy, spend the damn money on a quality backup.  If I hear Suzuki's name in reference to this team at any point for next year?  Then I'll already know we've failed.  

Walsh is actually an easy one for me.  Keep him unless another team thinks more highly of him than I do.  But if I see guys like Matt Duffy, Jose Rojas or David MacKinnon (yes, I know he's an A which is why I stated 'like') anywhere near the field as his backup?  Again, that would mean we've failed.  

I can probably live with Fletch at a super ut.  If he get's more than 300 PA then Minasian didn't do his job.  

Rengifo is my coin flip.  I'm inclined to hand him the 2b job.  But, he could end up very useful and we have to trust him to be as good as he is now.  

Everything else I am doing is to get as much talent on this team as possible for the next 2-3 years (after this year) without making monster financial commitments.  Which means...

likely gutting the farm to make this happen.  

We'll need a SS, very good corner OFer, IF and OF depth including a very good contingency plan for 1b.  Plus one top of the rotation starter with 2+ years of control and several pen pieces.  

If Arte wants to increase payroll some then great.  But I would absolutely NOT bring in anyone on more than a 4 year contract and even that's pushing it.  So I'm getting guys like Judge and Trea Turner out of my head.  

So give it two years.  Maybe 3 if you can pull it off.  And if it doesn't work after the first two, we can trade Ohtani (who won't have as much value because he'll cost a lot and have opt outs) and then at that point, you can also trade away anything of value that you've acquired for that window.  

But we really need to stop mixing and matching and praying because it's not working.  If recycling the same old method is the route they choose instead then so be it.  

In some ways, Minasian may have already started prepping for this by the moves he made at the deadline.  I didn't really like it at the time but perhaps it's gonna be more helpful than I realized.  

 

 

[tdawg87]

[Angelsjunky]

I just can't. Or not fully. I'm down with Minasian being more aggressive, but there are a handful of prospects that for various reasons, to me, should be held onto, namely: Rada, DeJesus, D Guzman, Blakely, Quero, O'Hoppe, Bachman, Joyce, Neto, DiChiara. Meaning, a combination of very young, upside, and new. You really shouldn't trade guys you just drafted (and isn't a rule that you can't for a year?), or guys that are so young that you're not sure what you have (Rada, DeJesus), or with substantial upside (Blakely, Bachman, Joyce) and/or fill a major long-term need (O'Hoppe, Quero).

But everyone else? Sure. I mean, they can trade from the depth of AA pitching. Maybe Oakland is intrigued by Kyren Paris. Maybe someone is enamored with Jackson's power potential. I don't want to trade these guys, but would be willing to do so if it helps the team in the next few years.

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I just can't. Or not fully. I'm down with Minasian being more aggressive, but there are a handful of prospects that for various reasons, to me, should be held onto, namely: Rada, DeJesus, D Guzman, Blakely, Quero, O'Hoppe, Bachman, Joyce, Neto, DiChiara. Meaning, a combination of very young, upside, and new. You really shouldn't trade guys you just drafted (and isn't a rule that you can't for a year?), or guys that are so young that you're not sure what you have (Rada, DeJesus), or with substantial upside (Blakely, Bachman, Joyce) and/or fill a major long-term need (O'Hoppe, Quero).

But everyone else? Sure. I mean, they can trade from the depth of AA pitching. Maybe Oakland is intrigued by Kyren Paris. Maybe someone is enamored with Jackson's power potential. I don't want to trade these guys, but would be willing to do so if it helps the team in the next few years.

I know.  It would actually totally suck after all the mental effort we've put into following these guys.  It would literally cause me pain to watch it happen.  The absolute worst would be watching a bunch of our former prospects from our 'crappy farm system' turn into stars or at least very good major league players.  

But what they're doing now?  It's. Just. Not. Working.   There's not enough talent on the major league roster to win.  And all the guys you've mentioned?  They're not ready.  A bunch of them are kinda close.  But that's not gonna cut the grass.  All the guys on your list are the ones that people would want.  The ones it would take to improve the major league team enough to actually compete.  In three years, imagine what the really good players on the roster are going to look like.  

Are we playing for now or 3 years from now.  We've been trying to split the difference and we're 221-271 over the last four years.  That's a .449 winning percentage.  That's about 73-89.  And yet somehow we still have the a bottom third farm according to most.  

Draft better?  let me snap my fingers.   Pick better free agents?  Let me snap my fingers.  Find some diamonds in the rough from the waiver pile to fill out 1/3rd of our roster?  Let me snap my fingers.  Develop better? Snap, snap, snap.  

There is a supplemental option to this btw.  And it goes something like this - Ok, we'll take your high priced players with a couple years left.  But I'm gonna need a couple nice prospects or an actually useful major league player in return.  

[Dtwncbad]

Maybe somebody will bump this post in a few years and mock me, we will see.  But for as horrible as the won/loss record is, the BIGGEST problem with 2022 is the already-in-motion-rebuild did not mature in time for 2022.

That doesn’t mean there is no reason all to have some optimism that some of these players will have a better contribution on 2023.

Walsh doesn’t have to be an All-Star, he just has to be league average.

Adell doesn’t have to suddenly be a bonafide #3 hitter.  He as to be dangerous and pull his weight from his spot in the order.

Fletcher can be the best utility player in the league playing a lot.

Ohtani/Sandoval/Detmers is a very good base for a rotation.  It’s not that far off.

The team is closer to contending than some people calling for a total overhaul are seeing.

Secure a damn good reliable starter, a shortstop that is better than league average offensively, and some support pieces.

Get 135 games each out of Trout and Rendon.

Bachman and Joyce can be added to the bullpen next year.

There are a lot of pieces in place to be successful in 2023.

This is the sentence that will make heads explode (out of justified frustration over the last 7 years):

Stay the course, to some degree, especially on the current batch of young player development.  And then just do a better, more aggressive job of what you add for 2023.

You don’t need to “gut the farm” to trade away your best, most marketable players and start over.

 

 

Edited August 7, 2022 by Dtwncbad

[Angelsjunky]

21 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

I know.  It would actually totally suck after all the mental effort we've put into following these guys.  It would literally cause me pain to watch it happen.  The absolute worst would be watching a bunch of our former prospects from our 'crappy farm system' turn into stars or at least very good major league players.  

But what they're doing now?  It's. Just. Not. Working.   There's not enough talent on the major league roster to win.  And all the guys you've mentioned?  They're not ready.  A bunch of them are kinda close.  But that's not gonna cut the grass.  All the guys on your list are the ones that people would want.  The ones it would take to improve the major league team enough to actually compete.  In three years, imagine what the really good players on the roster are going to look like.  

Are we playing for now or 3 years from now.  We've been trying to split the difference and we're 221-271 over the last four years.  That's a .449 winning percentage.  That's about 73-89.  And yet somehow we still have the a bottom third farm according to most.  

Draft better?  let me snap my fingers.   Pick better free agents?  Let me snap my fingers.  Find some diamonds in the rough from the waiver pile to fill out 1/3rd of our roster?  Let me snap my fingers.  Develop better? Snap, snap, snap.  

There is a supplemental option to this btw.  And it goes something like this - Ok, we'll take your high priced players with a couple years left.  But I'm gonna need a couple nice prospects or an actually useful major league player in return.  

Well to play Devil's Advocate for the "old plan," a couple things are different now than they were a year ago. For one, all of a sudden the Angels have a ton of solid pitching depth in AA. Now not all of these guys are going to be good major leaguers, but at least a handful could become useable pitchers. We didn't have that a year ago. This cohort will provide the major league team with some depth over the next couple years, and maybe several of these guys will turn out to be actually good major leaguers.

I think the problem with "gutting the farm" is that if you trade a guy like Quero, you're trading a guy who is probably a 45+/50 FV prospect right now, but could be a 60 FV prospect a couple years from now. So you're selling low on a guy on an upward trajectory. Similarly with Blakely, and more so with guys like Rada and DeJesus.

On the other hand, the Angels could trade from their AA pitching depth. Hopefully they've seen enough of Bush, Erla, Crow, Seminaris, etc, to know more about them than interested orgs, and know who has higher upside and is worth keeping and who is worth trading. They can also trade from areas in which they have a lot of intriguing options, like middle infield. I'd trade someone like Jeremiah Jackson, who might intrigue some team, yet at the same time I don't think he has fundamentally higher upside than Paris, Blakely, Guzman, Vera, and Placencia.

So I guess my bottom line is don't gut the farm, but be willing to trade some prospects. Meaning, find a middle ground between Dipoto and Stoneman. That means holding onto choice pieces, but still trading some solid prospects in areas that there is some depth.

Meaning, even if you prospect the players I listed before, that are still a couple dozen tradable assets to consider. And with Raisel and Upton off the books next year, they've got a bit more cash to spend. A combination of savvy free agent signings (yeah, right) and a few trades could lead to a greatly improved team. I'm not sure "gutting the farm" significantly improves the team above and beyond that.

 

[Blarg]

I am surprised that after losing two more games to the Angels a home, Dipoto has sunk so low he's hijacked Doc's account. 

[Docwaukee]

13 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I am surprised that after losing two more games to the Angels a home, Dipoto has sunk so low he's hijacked Doc's account. 

He's at my house.  Floating on a raft in my pool.  My dogs keep barking at him and my daughter said 'that guy's kinda creepy'.  

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

He's at my house.  Floating on a raft in my pool.  My dogs keep barking at him and my daughter said 'that guy's kinda creepy'.  

Smartest guy at the pool.

[beatlesrule]

Lol at gut the 25th or 28th ranked farm. Speaking of which, when are there going to be updated rankings after the big trade deadline?

[Stradling]

10 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Lol at gut the 25th or 28th ranked farm. Speaking of which, when are there going to be updated rankings after the big trade deadline?

There’s a pretty decent chance this farm system has 4-5 top 100 prospects right now.  I know you don’t like optimism but it is what it is.

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, Docwaukee said:

I know.  It would actually totally suck after all the mental effort we've put into following these guys.  It would literally cause me pain to watch it happen.  The absolute worst would be watching a bunch of our former prospects from our 'crappy farm system' turn into stars or at least very good major league players.  

But what they're doing now?  It's. Just. Not. Working.   There's not enough talent on the major league roster to win.  And all the guys you've mentioned?  They're not ready.  A bunch of them are kinda close.  But that's not gonna cut the grass.  All the guys on your list are the ones that people would want.  The ones it would take to improve the major league team enough to actually compete.  In three years, imagine what the really good players on the roster are going to look like.  

Are we playing for now or 3 years from now.  We've been trying to split the difference and we're 221-271 over the last four years.  That's a .449 winning percentage.  That's about 73-89.  And yet somehow we still have the a bottom third farm according to most.  

Draft better?  let me snap my fingers.   Pick better free agents?  Let me snap my fingers.  Find some diamonds in the rough from the waiver pile to fill out 1/3rd of our roster?  Let me snap my fingers.  Develop better? Snap, snap, snap.  

There is a supplemental option to this btw.  And it goes something like this - Ok, we'll take your high priced players with a couple years left.  But I'm gonna need a couple nice prospects or an actually useful major league player in return.  

I don't think we have enough value in the minor leagues to truly fill all the holes on the roster. But let's say that we can... 

The real issue now is the lack of productivity of Rendon and Trout and the impending free agency of Ohtani. All "go for it" scenarios require healthy, productive seasons from Rendon and Trout, and with their increasing age and decreasing health that is becoming less and less likely. Ohtani is here only one more year before he leaves or he soaks up the rest of the budget. 

On the other hand, trading Ohtani right now at his peak value, would've brought back a real haul.... likely a new set of top 3 prospects. Sure they are a few years off but we do still have a young core that might blossom at any point, and the opportunity to free up some pay roll two or three years down the road. 

You're looking for a hail mary pass, and Im talking about punting. No one likes punting but in this case its the right play.

[ten ocho recon scout]

29 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

He's at my house.  Floating on a raft in my pool.  My dogs keep barking at him and my daughter said 'that guy's kinda creepy'.  

He strikes me as the type that doesn't pee in the pool, and you're like "great!". But he nonchalantly pees in the garden on the side of your house. And when you catch he's like "well, I was wet, didn't want to go inside your house"

[ten ocho recon scout]

26 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Smartest guy at the pool.

This needs more views.

[AngelsLakersFan]

2 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

He strikes me as the type that doesn't pee in the pool, and you're like "great!". But he nonchalantly pees in the garden on the side of your house. And when you catch he's like "well, I was wet, didn't want to go inside your house"

We've all seen it

[AngelsLakersFan]

3 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

This needs more views.

tdawg's posts really should have more subs

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

Maybe somebody will bump this post in a few years and mock me, we will see.  But for as horrible as the won/loss record is, the BIGGEST problem with 2022 is the already-in-motion-rebuild did not mature in time for 2022.

That doesn’t mean there is no reason all to have some optimism that some of these players will have a better contribution on 2023.

Walsh doesn’t have to be an All-Star, he just has to be league average.

Adell doesn’t have to suddenly be a bonafide #3 hitter.  He as to be dangerous and pull his weight from his spot in the order.

Fletcher can be the best utility player in the league playing a lot.

Ohtani/Sandoval/Detmers is a very good base for a rotation.  It’s not that far off.

The team is closer to contending than some people calling for a total overhaul are seeing.

Secure a damn good reliable starter, a shortstop that is better than league average offensively, and some support pieces.

Get 135 games each out of Trout and Rendon.

Bachman and Joyce can be added to the bullpen next year.

There are a lot of pieces in place to be successful in 2023.

This is the sentence that will make heads explode (out of justified frustration over the last 7 years):

Stay the course, to some degree, especially on the current batch of young player development.  And then just do a better, more aggressive job of what you add for 2023.

You don’t need to “gut the farm” to trade away your best, most marketable players and start over.

 

 

I am in this boat.  Yea, we have a lot of AAAA type players but we aren’t that far off.  We need a SS, a good one.  We need a back up 1st/3rd baseman, that is actually a major leaguer.  We need an outfielder. A back up catcher and one arm in the rotation.  I think you can get that in one off season, through free agency and a couple of smart trades. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

20 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

You're looking for a hail mary pass, and Im talking about punting. No one likes punting but in this case its the right play.

You two need to come together and make a trick play. Set up for a punt then play action to a pass.

Trade Ohtani to retool with prospects, then trade all those prospects to build around Adell, or something  like that.

[eligrba]

[Angels 1961]

2 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

Ok, so hear me out because this might sound a little crazy at first.  Let me preface this that it kinda goes against every bone in my body.  I love the idea of building the team through the farm and creating a sustainable model of success for years and years.   Like what we used to do.  

But we've got to break the cycle somehow.  Because no matter what's been done, the timing is off and they end up missing players or ignoring deficiencies in key areas.  We've been going through this half-assed rebuild/try to compete circle jerk for the last 5-6 years at least.  

And then we end up with some sort of combo of generational players plus guys who still need to cut their teeth but have potential, to guys we pick up off waivers that we draw a moustache in hopes that we can get them to be someone they've never been.  

Many have proposed a traditional rebuild, but those suck.   They take 5 years.  Or longer.  Trade Ohtani for a bunch of guys 'close to the majors'.  And that's part of the problem.  We keep needing certain guys to be better than they're ready to be.  We needed Ward and Sandoval and others to be as good as they are now...but like two years ago.  Now we're going to jack around with Adell, Rengifo, Silseth, Davidson, Suarez etc.  And then we're gonna wait for Neto and Bachman and Ohoppe to contribute?  When?  2-3 years from now?  

We have about 100 guys in this org right now with actual present or future value.  And they're on like 25 different clocks.  Align the talent cycles (yes, I'm waiting for everyone's awesome jokes on this).  

So I have no real idea how to do it, but I'll make something up.  

Trout, Ohtani, Rendon aren't going anywhere.  I would give Shohei a monster deal for 24/25 with an opt out after.  I think it's the only way you might keep him for now.  

I'm for sure keeping Sandoval and Detmers.  And Taylor Ward unless someone gives me an oddly high return that I could then flip for a better player.  But he's pretty good.  

I'm also keeping Stassi.  Premium catchers don't typically come available.  Upgrade would be tough and cost a shit ton.  But for the love of everything decent and holy, spend the damn money on a quality backup.  If I hear Suzuki's name in reference to this team at any point for next year?  Then I'll already know we've failed.  

Walsh is actually an easy one for me.  Keep him unless another team thinks more highly of him than I do.  But if I see guys like Matt Duffy, Jose Rojas or David MacKinnon (yes, I know he's an A which is why I stated 'like') anywhere near the field as his backup?  Again, that would mean we've failed.  

I can probably live with Fletch at a super ut.  If he get's more than 300 PA then Minasian didn't do his job.  

Rengifo is my coin flip.  I'm inclined to hand him the 2b job.  But, he could end up very useful and we have to trust him to be as good as he is now.  

Everything else I am doing is to get as much talent on this team as possible for the next 2-3 years (after this year) without making monster financial commitments.  Which means...

likely gutting the farm to make this happen.  

We'll need a SS, very good corner OFer, IF and OF depth including a very good contingency plan for 1b.  Plus one top of the rotation starter with 2+ years of control and several pen pieces.  

If Arte wants to increase payroll some then great.  But I would absolutely NOT bring in anyone on more than a 4 year contract and even that's pushing it.  So I'm getting guys like Judge and Trea Turner out of my head.  

So give it two years.  Maybe 3 if you can pull it off.  And if it doesn't work after the first two, we can trade Ohtani (who won't have as much value because he'll cost a lot and have opt outs) and then at that point, you can also trade away anything of value that you've acquired for that window.  

But we really need to stop mixing and matching and praying because it's not working.  If recycling the same old method is the route they choose instead then so be it.  

In some ways, Minasian may have already started prepping for this by the moves he made at the deadline.  I didn't really like it at the time but perhaps it's gonna be more helpful than I realized.  

 

 

What if Ohtani tells you he is going to test free agency?

[AngelsLakersFan]

18 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I am in this boat.  Yea, we have a lot of AAAA type players but we aren’t that far off.  We need a SS, a good one.  We need a back up 1st/3rd baseman, that is actually a major leaguer.  We need an outfielder. A back up catcher and one arm in the rotation.  I think you can get that in one off season, through free agency and a couple of smart trades. 

You still don't have a bullpen.

You also still need probably a good 10+ war from Rendon and Trout.

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

You still don't have a bullpen.

You also still need probably a good 10+ war from Rendon and Trout.

Yea, I meant to talk about health, because without it it doesn’t matter.  The pen will be fine, minus normal volatility.  

[Revad]

27 minutes ago, Stradling said:

We need a SS, a good one.  We need a back up 1st/3rd baseman, that is actually a major leaguer.  We need an outfielder. A back up catcher and one arm in the rotation.  I think you can get that in one off season, through free agency and a couple of smart trades. 

We definitely need a good SS that can hit and isn’t $25M a year.  I think Ward could play some 1st (and cover 3rd in emergency) and Fletch can play 3rd, so an alternative would be get one above average OF and one left-masher OF/1b.

[tdawg87]

41 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

tdawg's posts really should have more subs

Oh believe me I have plenty of subs.

[ettin]

The goal, each and every year, should be to win a World Series Championship.

Doc is correct, because to that end the Angels need to choose: 1) Use the two once-in-a-lifetime player's they have now and go all in by using all of their useful prospect capital to improve the Major League team or 2) implode the entire roster and reboot. Some will make comments about trading Ohtani, but that is shooting yourself in your face to spite your foot. We need ace-caliber pitchers, so we shouldn't be dealing one away. We need impact hitters, so we shouldn't be trading one away. No one is at Ohtani's caliber that we could get back by trading him.

So it really is put up or shut up time for the Halos.