What is Ohtani worth (and should the Angels trade him)?

[Stradling]

41 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

What's his ERA? How exactly? We know already that 1 or 2 top hitters without pitching is a loser and trading Ohtani without replacing him on the mound is a loser in my book.

How exactly?  An extra year of Soto over Ohtani. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

How exactly?  An extra year of Soto over Ohtani. 

Still not worth it. Throw in Adell and get a quality arm or two.

[mmc]

 

[T.G.]

“Top 4 prospects” vary with every organization 

[Paolo11]

I vote to sign him to a monster contract....unless:

The Angels need to approach him with their best offer.  Don't start low ball and then d--k around.  If he turns down your honest best offer, then trade him.  And if Moreno won't trade him to the Dodgers or Mets because of Eppler or some perceived cross-town rivalry-- and pass on a better deal for HIS team, then screw him.  His stupid baseball  decisions, his stupid GM's, his lack of developmental vision caused this mess.  Ohtani basically fell into the Angles laps, but they are just a awful team.   If it's the best deal for the Angels, Trade him to the Dodgers in the above scenario, except make sure Andrew Friedman is part of the deal coming to the Angels.  It's all about championships and it starts with talented leadership. 

[failos]

5 hours ago, Stradling said:

I have no idea who they have as pitching prospects but Soto straight up for Ohtani favors the Angels. 

What a stupid ass opinion

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, failos said:

What a stupid ass opinion

So you’d take this season (which is a lost season) and next over this season and two more of Soto?  

[failos]

Just now, Stradling said:

So you’d take this season (which is a lost season) and next over this season and two more of Soto?  

I’d rather have a Ohtani than a whiny asshole like Soto, yes. Sorry if that hurts your feelings.

[failos]

This season isn’t lost because of Ohtani.

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, failos said:

I’d rather have a Ohtani than a whiny asshole like Soto, yes. Sorry if that hurts your feelings.

Hurts my feelings?  We have a different opinion. I’ll assume you are having a bad night. 

[failos]

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Hurts my feelings?  We have a different opinion. I’ll assume you are having a bad night. 

I had a great night, actually. Sorry you didn’t. I hope the team trades Ohtani for a bunch of washed out prospects so I never have to follow this shitty ass excuse for a team again. 
 

if you’ve been paying attention, Ohtani is the only player that makes this team worth following. The entire organization is a train wreck, and I wish I had never spent my hard earned money on this terribly run organization. Let’s see what Soto and a couple shitty ass prospects will do.

[cals]

Cmon guys, let’s keep it civil.

[Angelsjunky]

5 hours ago, Duren, Duren said:

Very good analytical breakdown.

But the intangibles can't be quantified. And emotion is always a factor in terms of fan reaction. Right now Ohtani is virtually the only must see player on the team.

But he also can be an injury risk. Durability as a major key value wise to any team 

Two way players more so.  He already had a long absence from the mound because of injury. And now almost every at bat he's in pain  from foul balls or limping from base path wear and tear. Eight or more years of elite two way play is a lot to hope for as he ages. And with the  Angels it never has worked out. 

I've seen dozens of trades in different sports where a superstar nets a big return of young players. Usually there is a negative reaction from fans losing the star. But often enough over time a franchise can be reconstructed quicker. But not immediately. It usually takes at least a couple of years. And there are growing pains and disappointment along the way. When you get quantity, not all end up as successes. 

I remember this trade like it was yesterday. It didn't go well for you he Expos. 

On Dec. 10, 1984, the Montreal Expos sent Carter to the Mets in exchange for infielder Hubie Brooks, catcher Mike Fitzgerald, outfielder Herm Winningham and pitcher Floyd Youmans. It was one of the best trades in Mets history

 

Good post. Yeah, the intangibles are impossible to quantify - yet on the other hand, Perry Minasian has to try, or at least weigh things that are impossible weigh.

As for the Gary Carter trade, he did only have one more peak year, another good one, and then was pretty mediocre in his last six years with the Mets.

Hubie Brooks had a few good years, Fitzgerald was a decent platoon catcher, though Winningham was a dud. Youmans is a bit mysterious - he was actually decent at first but was out of baseball at 25...not sure what happened.

[Lou]

18 minutes ago, failos said:

I had a great night, actually. Sorry you didn’t. I hope the team trades Ohtani for a bunch of washed out prospects so I never have to follow this shitty ass excuse for a team again. 
 

if you’ve been paying attention, Ohtani is the only player that makes this team worth following. The entire organization is a train wreck, and I wish I had never spent my hard earned money on this terribly run organization. Let’s see what Soto and a couple shitty ass prospects will do.

You bought season tickets.

[failos]

Just now, Lou said:

You bought season tickets.

No shit, Einstein.

[mmc]

42 minutes ago, failos said:

I’d rather have a Ohtani than a whiny asshole like Soto, yes. Sorry if that hurts your feelings.

Soto’s a whiny asshole because he turned down a contract offer?  Do you think Ohtani has never told Minasian during any contract negotiation that he wanted more money than what he was currently putting on the table?

[failos]

Just now, mmc said:

Sorry

I’m sorry too. I just had a really bad experience at Angel Stadium and I’m pissed.. I didn’t mean to offend you, and it’s not personal. My family was treated like a bunch of criminals, seemingly, because of our ethnicity. I’m just in a really bad mood—I shouldn’t have taken it out on you

[mmc]

Just now, failos said:

I’m sorry too. I just had a really bad experience at Angel Stadium and I’m pissed.. I didn’t mean to offend you, and it’s not personal. My family was treated like a bunch of criminals, seemingly, because of our ethnicity. I’m just in a really bad mood—I shouldn’t have taken it out on you

All good, sorry to hear it.  I work at the Honda Center and many of my coworkers work there as well, hopefully it was no one I know

[failos]

2 minutes ago, mmc said:

All good, sorry to hear it.  I work at the Honda Center and many of my coworkers work there as well, hopefully it was no one I know

Thanks man. I’ve almost never experienced discrimination since 9/11, so seeing it happen to my own dad had made me flip out. It just sucks, I don’t know how to explain it without sounding like a dickhead. I shouldn’t have said that to you. I’ve just noticed that many ushers at Angel Stadium are racist—-and while it only happened to me once, it’s different when it happens to my dad.

[mmc]

1 minute ago, failos said:

Thanks man. I’ve almost never experienced discrimination since 9/11, so seeing it happen to my own dad had made me flip out. It just sucks, I don’t know how to explain it without sounding like a dickhead. I shouldn’t have said that to you. I’ve just noticed that many ushers at Angel Stadium are racist—-and while it only happened to me once, it’s different when it happens to my dad.

You don’t have to, feel free to PM if you want to though

[mmc]

 

[darctoon]

What Ohtani is worth is not necessarily what he can get.  As the Nationals are slowly finding out, the immense price they've set for Soto is not something every team will do, and attaching a contract to a deal like this (such as Corbin) diminishes the return.  For a rebuilding team, unless there is a demand by ownership to cut costs, the return is the most significant thing (perhaps moreso for the Angels than the Nationals, since the Nationals system is slightly stronger).  If you try to attach Rendon's contract to this deal (and Rendon's is arguably the worst contract situation out there right now due to years left, production, and cost), it is such a high negative value that it would absolutely decimate the Angels return.

The question really comes down to whether or not they should trade Ohtani, at which point, you get the best return you can get and you move on.  The answer to that question is essentially to ask two questions - Will Ohtani stay (and what it would cost for him to stay)? and Can you build a championship caliber organization with 3 massive contracts on hand, all 3 likely to have major issues (Rendon production, Trout - health, Ohtani - durability in regards to how long he can maintain this)?  Those should be the two primary questions - the concerns about the system are there, but a system can be rebuilt fast with shrewd decision-making, drafting, and development.  The history of these mega-trades suggests that expecting the return to definitively reboot/build a teams core is shaky at best, so the focus really needs to be on Ohtani's willingness to stay and the ability to build a winning core with 3 shaky, big deals.

I think the answer to the 2nd question dictates the answer to the first.  Can they win with 3 massive, shaky deals on the roster?  For an organization whose development of young talent has been shaky at best for a decade-plus now, along with the fact that their system is weak, it is extremely hard to see them build a winning core with 3 massive deals fast.  It's not impossible - the rotation looks like, even if Syndegaard and Lorenzen are moved, it could still be decent in the next year or two, provided they makes moves to replace the loss of decent innings.  You have to spend to replace the the innings, and you can't go into the year depending on your youngsters, like Detmers, to definitely move up to replace the losses, so basically, two mid-rotation arms are needed.  I wouldn't be that concerned about the pen even if Iglesias moves - have to address all the other issues.  That said, if you move Iglesias, you need at least another FA pen arm with some late inning ability.  Offensively, it almost doesn't matter where, but likely in the infield- you'd need at least 2, if not 3, bats.

None of that is impossible - finding competition at first is doable, a couple more bats, is possible, hoping for development on Marsh/Adell is still a possibility.  Problem is, Ohtani is a FA in 1 year, and to address all those issues in one offseason seems quite unlikely, without some level of luck.  Thus, whether or not he wants to stay, you almost have to consider all trades, as they are supposedly doing.  If you trade him now, you give a team 2 runs with Ohtani before an extension.  If that's the case, I think you have to get at least 2 upper level prospects that are ready as the starting point.  It almost doesn't matter where - the Angels could use help anywhere, and in a rebuild, you take the best you can get, and work things out later.  I think you would aim for more than the Indians Bartolo Colon return, which  netted Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, and Grady Sizemore as the main pieces in return (I use that trade as it's one of the few megatrades where the prospects really turned out quite well for the receiving team).  Thus, the demand for a team's 4 best prospects is fair, depending on team and said prospects, but you need ceiling and close to majors ability in the deal.  2 upper level, high quality young players, and at least 2-3 more assets with some ceiling.

 

It doesn't sound like much, and  I'm sure fans would be upset, but such is the nature of these deals - the receiving team's fanbase will never be happy with the return.  But if the answer to the two questions is that the ability to make said moves to win the short term is limited, plus Ohtani may walk without clear competitive signs soon, then sometimes you have to swallow the bullet.  If they go into the winter, the chances are quite high that you'll likely see the return diminish somewhat.  I'm not sure it'll diminish a ton, but it'll diminish somewhat.  

My guess is that they are going to walk the tightrope.  They'l'l listen on Ohtani deals now, and if something overwhelming comes down the pike (for example, if the Padres offered them what they are supposedly offering for Soto - Abrams, Gore, Hassell as the starting point, even with concerns on Abrams and Gore this year), I think they have to strongly consider it.  That said, my guess is that they aren't going to find enough to justify a move in their minds, and thus, I think they'll drag this into the offseason.  In the scenario, I think they walk the tightrope by trying to add FA's to be competitive now, but also listening to Ohtani offers at the same time.  If they feel they can build a winning team fast, they may roll the dice and take Ohtani into the final year without an extension.  If not (that is, they can't add enough FA's to win now), then they may pivot and deal Ohtani mid-winter.  It's a dangerous tightrope to walk - you could get yourselves into bad contracts or a diminished return for Ohtani, but that's my guess where this heads.

[Angels 1961]

6 hours ago, failos said:

I’m sorry too. I just had a really bad experience at Angel Stadium and I’m pissed.. I didn’t mean to offend you, and it’s not personal. My family was treated like a bunch of criminals, seemingly, because of our ethnicity. I’m just in a really bad mood—I shouldn’t have taken it out on you

That's why  I'm here. Once Ohtani is traded we can all go watch prospect in San Bernandino. Serenity Now 

[Chuck]

8 hours ago, failos said:

Thanks man. I’ve almost never experienced discrimination since 9/11, so seeing it happen to my own dad had made me flip out. It just sucks, I don’t know how to explain it without sounding like a dickhead. I shouldn’t have said that to you. I’ve just noticed that many ushers at Angel Stadium are racist—-and while it only happened to me once, it’s different when it happens to my dad.

Damn @failos I'm sorry you and your dad had to go through that. I cannot imagine the anger and disappointment you're feeling. 

I'll make sure to pass this along to the Angels. Unacceptable.

[Angelsjunky]

My darkhorse trader partner: the Baltimore Orioles.

First of all, they have the prospects. According to Fangraphs, they're the only team with four 55 FV prospects, and they also have six total that are 50 FV or higher. Meaning, they could outbid anyone in terms of prospect value.

Secondly, their payroll is a measly $30M - so they could actually afford an Ohtani contract.

Thirdly, it would be a big, splashy way to say that they've arrived as legit contenders.

As for their prospects, they have probably the top pitching prospect in baseball, Grayson Rodriguez, who could probably slot into the Angels rotation now. They have a stud 3B prospect in Gunnar Henderson who could play in Rendon's place, and even push Rendon over to 1B or DH, with Ohtani gone. They have another stud SP prospect in DL Hall and two very good OF prospecets in Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo. They also have #1 pick Jackson Holliday, but he won't be traded (don't think he can be?).

If the Orioles were to offer Henderson and Rodriguez for Ohtani, it would be pretty hard to refuse.