darctoon

I think there are things about the trade deadline that Angels fans should be pleased with. Even a day later, I am still not a fan of the Syndegaard trade in that, yes, the contract was probably a hindrance, but was a gamble on Moniak and Jadiel Sanchez the right move? I get why the Angels made the move, and they probably like Sanchez a fair amount, but considering how highly valued pitching can be, they basically got a lottery ticket and a bust of a prospect for Syndegaard. Feels soft ... but then again, we don't know the other offers out there. That said, they added an ascending prospect in Logan O'Hoppe, whose bat should play, and perhaps as important, they added a potential young starting pitching option ini Tucker Davidson. This lengthens their options for the rotation, and the one thing Davidson really needed was time, which the Angels can give him in this lost season. That's two useful additions, and if they made the decision that Marsh wans't going to be fixed here, which is quite possible, then the loss of Marsh's perceived ceiling for O'Hoppe is fine. Whether or not this improves the team depends on what development and their offseason decisions. It feels clear they are walking the tightrope on the Ohtani situation - they'll try to build a winner this offseason and convince him to stay, but if at some point, they feel that can't be done this offseason, they could turn around and explore shopping him. Of course, that likely means a full rebuild isn't on the horizon just yet, and it's debatable if that's the right move, with the weak system. If Davidson shows as a capable rotation asset, then you perhaps lessen the need to get two SP's this offseason. Maybe a rotation of Ohtani/SandovalFA + Detmers/Davidson/Silseth/Suarez/whoever is strong enough. The loss of Iglesias means you have to reset your late inning options, but with the volatility of pen arms, maybe Loup is more effective next year, and maybe you can fill in the pieces in the pen without spending on multiple pen arms. Still, the issue really is needing multiple positional assets this winter if they are trying to compete, and at this juncture, it's hard to see that getting done. If Adell can finally get going, maybe they answer one spot from within, but you can't pencil in Walsh/Fletcher/MI/Rendon and feel all that great about anything. Add in Trout's injuries, Adell's inconsistency, and Ward only having one good year so far, and it's a mess of a lineup on paper.

Honestly, I'm fine with this trade. I think it was probably solid value, considering Iglesias' contract. They got rid of the contract while adding a young arm that has earned a longer look in the majors. They can give Davidson that look. There's enough to believe he might be able to be a decent starter option, but if not, he should be able to slot in the pen, perhaps even as a late inning arm, , where the fewer looks could help the fastball play better than it has, to go with his plus slider. Overall, if you count the two Phillies trades as separate, I liked this and the Marsh deal ... the Syndegaard deal, by itself, just feels weak, even when accounting for the money left on Thor. They'll give Davidson a long look as a starter, and maybe they end up getting a guy who just needed consistent innings. Either way, they found a piece of the pitching staff (starter or pen) for 2023 and cleared up money to give them some flexibility, which they'll need if the intent is to add pieces and convince Shohei to stay.

What Ohtani is worth is not necessarily what he can get. As the Nationals are slowly finding out, the immense price they've set for Soto is not something every team will do, and attaching a contract to a deal like this (such as Corbin) diminishes the return. For a rebuilding team, unless there is a demand by ownership to cut costs, the return is the most significant thing (perhaps moreso for the Angels than the Nationals, since the Nationals system is slightly stronger). If you try to attach Rendon's contract to this deal (and Rendon's is arguably the worst contract situation out there right now due to years left, production, and cost), it is such a high negative value that it would absolutely decimate the Angels return. The question really comes down to whether or not they should trade Ohtani, at which point, you get the best return you can get and you move on. The answer to that question is essentially to ask two questions - Will Ohtani stay (and what it would cost for him to stay)? and Can you build a championship caliber organization with 3 massive contracts on hand, all 3 likely to have major issues (Rendon production, Trout - health, Ohtani - durability in regards to how long he can maintain this)? Those should be the two primary questions - the concerns about the system are there, but a system can be rebuilt fast with shrewd decision-making, drafting, and development. The history of these mega-trades suggests that expecting the return to definitively reboot/build a teams core is shaky at best, so the focus really needs to be on Ohtani's willingness to stay and the ability to build a winning core with 3 shaky, big deals. I think the answer to the 2nd question dictates the answer to the first. Can they win with 3 massive, shaky deals on the roster? For an organization whose development of young talent has been shaky at best for a decade-plus now, along with the fact that their system is weak, it is extremely hard to see them build a winning core with 3 massive deals fast. It's not impossible - the rotation looks like, even if Syndegaard and Lorenzen are moved, it could still be decent in the next year or two, provided they makes moves to replace the loss of decent innings. You have to spend to replace the the innings, and you can't go into the year depending on your youngsters, like Detmers, to definitely move up to replace the losses, so basically, two mid-rotation arms are needed. I wouldn't be that concerned about the pen even if Iglesias moves - have to address all the other issues. That said, if you move Iglesias, you need at least another FA pen arm with some late inning ability. Offensively, it almost doesn't matter where, but likely in the infield- you'd need at least 2, if not 3, bats. None of that is impossible - finding competition at first is doable, a couple more bats, is possible, hoping for development on Marsh/Adell is still a possibility. Problem is, Ohtani is a FA in 1 year, and to address all those issues in one offseason seems quite unlikely, without some level of luck. Thus, whether or not he wants to stay, you almost have to consider all trades, as they are supposedly doing. If you trade him now, you give a team 2 runs with Ohtani before an extension. If that's the case, I think you have to get at least 2 upper level prospects that are ready as the starting point. It almost doesn't matter where - the Angels could use help anywhere, and in a rebuild, you take the best you can get, and work things out later. I think you would aim for more than the Indians Bartolo Colon return, which netted Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, and Grady Sizemore as the main pieces in return (I use that trade as it's one of the few megatrades where the prospects really turned out quite well for the receiving team). Thus, the demand for a team's 4 best prospects is fair, depending on team and said prospects, but you need ceiling and close to majors ability in the deal. 2 upper level, high quality young players, and at least 2-3 more assets with some ceiling. It doesn't sound like much, and I'm sure fans would be upset, but such is the nature of these deals - the receiving team's fanbase will never be happy with the return. But if the answer to the two questions is that the ability to make said moves to win the short term is limited, plus Ohtani may walk without clear competitive signs soon, then sometimes you have to swallow the bullet. If they go into the winter, the chances are quite high that you'll likely see the return diminish somewhat. I'm not sure it'll diminish a ton, but it'll diminish somewhat. My guess is that they are going to walk the tightrope. They'l'l listen on Ohtani deals now, and if something overwhelming comes down the pike (for example, if the Padres offered them what they are supposedly offering for Soto - Abrams, Gore, Hassell as the starting point, even with concerns on Abrams and Gore this year), I think they have to strongly consider it. That said, my guess is that they aren't going to find enough to justify a move in their minds, and thus, I think they'll drag this into the offseason. In the scenario, I think they walk the tightrope by trying to add FA's to be competitive now, but also listening to Ohtani offers at the same time. If they feel they can build a winning team fast, they may roll the dice and take Ohtani into the final year without an extension. If not (that is, they can't add enough FA's to win now), then they may pivot and deal Ohtani mid-winter. It's a dangerous tightrope to walk - you could get yourselves into bad contracts or a diminished return for Ohtani, but that's my guess where this heads.

The Nationals look like a mess ... but considering it's Year 1 of the rebuild, I'd argue that it's going better than expected for them. Now, there is the Soto issue to figure out, and I'll be curious how that plays out. They shouldn't feel pressurred to deal him yet, though - rumor was that the deferred money issue was largely settled, and they just wanted less money to be backloaded (which is the Nationals preference since they have Patrick Corbin's contract coming off the book in 2 years). That said, their trades last year netted them a solid starting catcher in Keibert Ruiz and a young arm who looks solid so far in Josiah Gray. Josh Bell has been a nice ... reclamation project? ... for them, although he's a FA this offseason that they'll need to resign. The system, though, looks to have rebounded. It was on a downswing for a couple years, but Cristhian Vaquero and Elijah Green give them two toolsy, exciting players. More importantly, Cade Cavalli and Cole Henry are two solid AAA arms, and Andry Lara and Jeremy de la Rosa are showing positive signs (de la Rosa moreso than Lara, but Lara was really raw, and de la Rosa did repeat A ball but he was rushed badly). They still need a lot of positional assets to really speed up the rebuild, but there's positive signs. I'd argue if they don't get an arm and a leg for Soto, which is their ace in the hole to speed up the rebuild in some respects (although the question is who would be involved that is willing to give up prospects and give out a big deal), they should just hold him until next summer and see how the club's outlook looks in a year. I'd be somewhat surprised if the system doesn't make a huge leap up the boards into a possible top 10 system to start next year - there's a lot of positives up and down developmentally for them. ____ Angels are in a rough state because their sort of tied in the majors with the contracts (really, it's Rendon's contract that's the issue, as well as the need to decide Ohtani's future) and the system has just sputtered for years and doesn't really have the assets to help. I mean ... it's Sam Bachman, Ky Bush, and what, Jeremiah Jackson as the three more intriguing prospects that are close to help? I do wonder if Jack Kochanowicz's development could send him to High A late this summer, and perhaps to AA some point next year, which puts him close to a similar path to Bachman and Bush, maybe a year behind, if the development is legitimate. I do really love the Neto pick. As long as they thing his motions are fine, here's a positional asset who could move fast, and heck ... they could use help all across the infield. There's solid ceiling offensively.

I think Adell definitely needs a good run, even if he falters. The reality is that his value is at a low point right now, so his value in trades will be minimal. You might as well let him sink or swim with it and see if he can figure it out. There are moments where he looks balanced, with a good approach at the plate, and isn't over-aggressive, and there are moments where that doesn't show and he reverts. I think, for the rest of this year, letting Rengifo play is just fine. That said, barring some otherworldly hitting that has never shown itself, they should still go into the winter with the idea that they need to upgrade. Rengifo's been around for a long time (easy to forget he entered the minors in 2014, was the return in the CJ Cron trade for you guys). I think he's best as a utility/super-sub guy, but considering the lost season, giving him run is just fine (but it is sort of sad that he's batting in the middle of the order). I actually wonder if a trip to AAA might do Marsh some good. He seems to press at times, and he's too gifted to be flailing away. Maybe he just needs to go down, relax, and rest, and then come up and get his AB's in August/September.

No one' giving that up for Thor right now. I can see a team fork over a Top 50 for Sandoval, but that makes little sense for the Angels.

I'm of the opinion that Priority A, B, and C should be one thing - trying to dump as much of Rendon's contract as possible. More than likely, that's Mission Impossible, but they need to try. It impacts so many things for the organization - from keeping Ohtani, to making moves to build a more well-rounded club. Now, obviously, this is for winter, but I think there's basically only one guy (taking out Ohtani and Trout from this discussion) that could lead to maybe some organization taking on a chunk of that salary, and I think that's Sandoval. Problem is, the cost of a Sandoval-like player on the market is going to be at least 15 million per, if not more, so you'd want more savings than that to justify a move. Don't get me wrong - I'm guessing the end game on the Rendon deal is at some point, they'll buy him out. But they need to explore trying to dump as much of that salary as best as possible. ___ Category B of trade candidates for mid-season, IMO, are the, "You think about it ... but ... " players, and there's two - a) Syndegaard - I'm not sure this Syndegaard, with that deal, being a pure rental, and his performance this year, nets a whole lot in return. That said, maybe he gets stronger next year. If the relationship is solid and you think you can get him back on a solid incentive laden deal for a few years, then not dealing him isn't a bad idea. It actually makes sense. With Ohtani/Sandoval/Syndegaard, plus the younger guys (Suarez/Silseth/Detmers) battling it out for 5/6, you move on from Lorenzen and look for an innings-eating middle rotation arm in FA, and the rotation looks solid, on paper. b) Ward - The article about Ward's swing changes seems to suggest that the Angels weren't necessarily supportive of it at first. That said, if they believe Ward's swing changes are legitimate, then you keep him. Don't extend him - at his age, and arb status, just play it out. That said, if you don't believe in his changes long term (of course, can the Angels make the correct assessment might be a fair question), then shopping him with some cost-control in his "breakout" year makes sense. There's going to be teams searching for bats. ____ 3rd category are pen arms - a) Iglesias - I think some of you under-estimate what he can bring back. Yes, the deal isn't great. He's had bad moments this year. Still, the peripherals are solid. He's "proven" and there doesn't seem to be a loss of stuff of a significant amount (not sure about the fastball velo decline). I think, of all the possible trade options, he might be the only non-Ohtani/Trout/Sandoval trade that could potentially net an solid upper level talent, and maybe a lottery ticket. Teams are always looking for pen arms. The contract may limit which teams can look, but I'd bet some team is willing to pay that amount, push come to shove. b) Anyone else (but specifically Aaron Loup) - Even the peripherals on Loup aren't all that bad. Teams pay for track record to begin with, and there's going to be some hope that Loup can be stronger in the 2nd half. I think a team will give up a typical middle relief pen trade package (maybe a low level lottery ticket? or middling upper level prospect?), and considering the financial limitations due to the massive deals, clearing Loup off the board when he doesn't matter for the near term makes sense. I think teams will like the club option as well. The other two main guys would Tepera and Bradley. I actually think it's possible a team takes a flyer on Bradley - doubt you'd get anything of value in return outside of some A ball or Rooke League lotto ticket, but you can sign guys like that each year. Tepera might be a harder move, but I wouldn't rule it out since all teams are looking for pen help, and as noted, teams do pay for track record. Wouldn't expect much in a Tepera deal. _____ After that, I really wouldn't expect much. I mean, I saw someone mention Barria, but I'm not convinced anyone he'll net much or that teams will go after him. You aren't moving any of the young arms barring a surprising return. Walsh isn't netting much. Moving Marsh or Adell now makes little sense, with their value at a low, while still having enough upside to at least wonder on, so you keep them and hope a switch flips. Oh, I guess I should add I don't expect Ohtani or Trout to be dealt now, but obviously, both could net a huge return. For an organziation that desperately needs to restock, there really isn't a lot to sell that can net interestinig returns, barring an Ohtani or Trout trade. That said, simply clearing the deck of some veterans, reallocating money and resources, and not rushing young talent will be a big plus for them. If the intent is to keep Ohtani/Trout and make a push, they need to plan to add bats AND arms, because they can't go into 2023 thinking that their rotation this year will stay solid. Honestly, in the winter, I'd look around the upper levels of the minors or young major leaguers and see if there are guys who are stuck (there are always guys like that) who you can pry away that might make good depth and competition. The fact that Mackinnon was the next guy up says a lot.

I was more or less emphasizing the incompetence point. There's always moves that sound great but don't pan out. A few years back, they made good, small gambles on arms. It just so happened almost none panned out. Problem I see here, from almost an outsider (hey, everyone watches Ohtani clips now ... as a side note, since I probably won't post in that intro thread, my favorite is not a HR one (although that 2nd home run against KC, that was electric. Favorite is still when he slid home against the Orioles ... boy what a difference a year makes.) is that, and I'm not one to reflexively blame owners (I don't know the intricacies of issues with Arte, but as a Cubs fan, there's a deep run of anti-Ricketts sentiment, which may be fair, but baseball mistakes shouldn't be lumped with the owner unless there's proof he meddled), but it speaks to not enough meaningful changes being done in the org. All organizations miss on prospects - the Angels seem to miss a lot more, particularly on impact talent (I could be wrong, but scanning Angels prospects list for the last two decades isn't a pretty picture in terms of guys that succeeded). The article about Ward working with Woodward on his swing suggests the Angels weren't supportive of his efforts and/or they weren't modernizing their departments to look at all possible ways to improve (which is odd, as Eppler was viewed as a fairly modern guy). You don't need to buy modern analytics to succeed - what you need is a functional organization that has a strong organizational culture and direction, and I think my question is if that is severely lacking in the Angels organization and what can be done about it. Another way to put it is ... are they plugging the gaps on a leaky ship instead of trying to make a stronger ship? They bet too heavily on some bats this year - Walsh for one, the youngsters (although to be fair, they had to give one of them some run at some point). There was a thorough lack of quality depth, with a system they had to know was lacking. You can try and plug the dikes if you have the money to spend this offseason (and they don't have that much flexibility, they aren't going to spend like the Dodgers, but who knows what happens next year. Maybe a starter or two will backslide. Maybe someone else gets hurt. One very important thing is they need to stop rushing kids up to fill the spots. Detmers really could've used a bit more time. I think he'll be fine in time, but with Bachman, don't rush him (and there's already concerning signs) and Silseth really could've used more time. Long term, getting that pipeline in a strong order is the only way to have continued success. There's the makings of a strong staff of youngish guys behind Ohtani/Sandoval sooner than later (although I wonder if Bachman might be better in the pen, don't know some weird gut feeling there).

Functionally, I'm not sure what the Angels can actually do right now. I hate this being my first post here (I was looking for an Angels fan site to comment on and sbn seems dead after Rev was fired). To be clear, I'm not an Angels fan, but I enjoy following them in this Ohtani-emergence era, because it's damn exciting and damn interesting, and it would be wonderful to see Ohtani on the mound in the playoffs, and Trout in the lineup. That said, I mean, this organization is in dire straits. Financially handicapped with the Rendon deal, a dearth of talent in the bigs after the big 2, young talent that hasn't produced consistently, and a a minor league farm system that really hasn't produced well enough over the last decade (and really, outside of Bachman and Jeremiah Jackson, no one is real close to getting to the majors (as possible impact talent) with Bachman and Jackson both more likely in mid-late 2023, if things go well). The real kicker about this season is that the much maligned rotation has been better, but the lineup is such a horrific mess. I'm guessing/hoping Minaisian tried to make moves earlier, while waiting/hoping on Walsh and others to step up, but few lineups can survive with 5-6 holes, depending on the day. Actually, maybe this is the real kicker - I'm not sure there's that much you could get in a firesale, while keeping on a timeline to try and compete with Ohtani and Trout, in terms of close to ready talent (granted, it's not like firesales always work in getting back quality talent thats close ... the Cubs trades last year focused a lot more on upside). There's Iglesias, Syndegaard, Sandoval, Taylor Ward, and Loup that could be probably get decent talent off the top. I'm not that sold that Syndegaard will net a huge return because it's a pure rental and he's still somewhat limited. I think Sandoval could net one, but if you deal him, you are definitely going away from any timeline to win with Ohtani/Trout, and at that point, you might as well just reboot the entire program. Iglesias and Loup will get you your typical pen arm returns for a closer and a middle reliever. In Iglesias' case, maybe it gets you someone in the close to ready and a lottery ticket or two. Option A, IMO, really has to be every effort to clear as much of the Rendon deal as possible. It's an albatross in regards to keeping Ohtani (if you went that route) and an albatross in terms of inhibiting other moves. This might be Mission Impossible, though. Absent packaging Sandoval with Rendon, and hoping a team will take on half the deal (with the Angels covering the rest), I don't see what combination of talent could get that done, and if you do that, you create another hole. Just so hard to see how such a big franchise, an owner willing to spend, and multiple GM's could mismanage things to such epic proportions while still having Trout and Ohtani. I'm really not sure what Minaisian can do. This feels like a multi-year rebuild job right now. Even a trade of Ohtani/Trout likely only accelerate the rebuild a little, considerinig the miss rate on prospects. Assuming they aren't going on a full rebuild, and leaving aside the Ohtani FA issue for now, I'd trade Iglesias/Loup this deadline, with the focus on getting a ready bat to compete with Walsh and others in the corner IF/LF spots. Pen arms/closers can be found/developed, even with the Angels recent spotty history. If someone offers you a monster return on Ward, you take it, but otherwise, since he's still cost-controlled, if you believe in the breakout with his swing changes and that he's found some consistency on it now, you keep him around. No need to extend him considering his age and arb status. Any move on Syndegaard should be dependent upon your relationship with him - if Minaisian feels like he might resign, I'm just not convinced it's worth it to deal him, since he might get better with another year under his belt. All these are really half-measures hoping to score, though. I can't think of an organization in a worse shape right now overall, and I'm just not sure what they can realistically do, absent moving Ohtani now, which I doubt they will do.