What is Ohtani worth (and should the Angels trade him)?

[failos]

2 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Damn @failos I'm sorry you and your dad had to go through that. I cannot imagine the anger and disappointment you're feeling. 

I'll make sure to pass this along to the Angels. Unacceptable.

I appreciate that, Chuck. I’m sorry for venting like this on the forum—using words I shouldn’t have used.
 

I’m never one to throw accusations of racism, but it really felt like it this time. My Dad was even “randomly” searched at the LF gate when we went through the scanner—he only had a shirt, shorts, glasses, wallet and phone. Meanwhile my sister went right on through despite having a small bag. I went through even though I had a couple nicotine vapes in my pocket lol.

I sorta ruined their time since I was so upset over that and the ushers.

Edited July 29, 2022 by failos

[Dtwncbad]

18 hours ago, Stradling said:

How exactly?  An extra year of Soto over Ohtani. 

Strad I think you are wrong about this one.  It is easy to see the extra year of control, but most likely any team chasing one of these players is going to be giving them an extension.

And then you can look at their ages and assume that Soto is worth more because he is younger, except the acquiring team also then has to make a much longer commitment to Soto, which they may not want to do as much as maybe they would like to have a shorter deal with Ohtani.

So it is complicated.

My point is only that concluding the one extra year of control for Soto is the determining factor in trade value, in this particular comparison, might be off the mark.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

My darkhorse trader partner: the Baltimore Orioles.

First of all, they have the prospects. According to Fangraphs, they're the only team with four 55 FV prospects, and they also have six total that are 50 FV or higher. Meaning, they could outbid anyone in terms of prospect value.

Secondly, their payroll is a measly $30M - so they could actually afford an Ohtani contract.

Thirdly, it would be a big, splashy way to say that they've arrived as legit contenders.

As for their prospects, they have probably the top pitching prospect in baseball, Grayson Rodriguez, who could probably slot into the Angels rotation now. They have a stud 3B prospect in Gunnar Henderson who could play in Rendon's place, and even push Rendon over to 1B or DH, with Ohtani gone. They have another stud SP prospect in DL Hall and two very good OF prospecets in Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo. They also have #1 pick Jackson Holliday, but he won't be traded (don't think he can be?).

If the Orioles were to offer Henderson and Rodriguez for Ohtani, it would be pretty hard to refuse.

they want 4 top prospects

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

they want 4 top prospects

They probably won't get four top prospects.

And of course, the phrase was "your 4 top prospects," I believe. That means a lot of different things, as far as FV is concerned:

Orioles: 60, 60, 55, 55, 50

Braves: 45+, 45, 45, 45, 45

As a general rule, if we look at Fangraphs BOARD to start the year, the FV ratings correlate with overall rankings like so:

70 FV: #1 prospect in baseball

65 FV: Top 5 prospect

60 FV: Top 20 prospect

55 FV: Top 40 prospect

50 FV: -- Top 100-120 prospect

45+ FV: Top 150-160 prospect

45 FV: Top 300 prospect

So once we get to the Braves' top prospects, all of them are outside the top 100 and more in the 150-300 range.

Meanwhile the Orioles have two guys in the top 10 and six guys in the top 80 or so.

So when you're talking about the Orioles' top 4 prospects, you're talking about four guys that are currently ranked #23 or higher by Fangraphs. I highly doubt they'd trade all four - maybe two, and two 100-200 guys (45+/45 FV).

[ten ocho recon scout]

19 hours ago, T.G. said:

“Top 4 prospects” vary with every organization 

That's why I think we should be all in on Soto.

Supposedly the Nats want top 5 prospects plus take on Corbins contract.

First, our top 5 probably suck. And second, Corbin skills at this point and money already make him feel like an Angel.

 

So we'd lose nothing in the trade, end up with a contract and pitcher that's status quo for us, and we get Soto.

Plus he's a Nat. We've had nothing but great results with guys we got from there.

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

That's why I think we should be all in on Soto.

Supposedly the Nats want top 5 prospects plus take on Corbins contract.

First, our top 5 probably suck. And second, Corbin skills at this point and money already make him feel like an Angel.

 

So we'd lose nothing in the trade, end up with a contract and pitcher that's status quo for us, and we get Soto.

Plus he's a Nat. We've had nothing but great results with guys we got from there.

I still don't think we have enough even if we took on Corbin. But it all comes down to what Washington wants.

[cals]

3 hours ago, failos said:

I appreciate that, Chuck. I’m sorry for venting like this on the forum—using words I shouldn’t have used.
 

I’m never one to throw accusations of racism, but it really felt like it this time. My Dad was even “randomly” searched at the LF gate when we went through the scanner—he only had a shirt, shorts, glasses, wallet and phone. Meanwhile my sister went right on through despite having a small bag. I went through even though I had a couple nicotine vapes in my pocket lol.

I sorta ruined their time since I was so upset over that and the ushers.

Maybe they were able to spot that you have an anger problem.  Glad our security is staying on top of things.  Next time leave the attitude at home. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

I still don't think we have enough even if we took on Corbin. But it all comes down to what Washington wants.

I'm just being sarcastic. They wouldn't want our top 4. Or 5.

The main part of my stupid joke making fun of Rendon.

Soto would be cool but there's zero chance in hell we'd be in on him.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

They probably won't get four top prospects.

And of course, the phrase was "your 4 top prospects," I believe. That means a lot of different things, as far as FV is concerned

Chapman, Olson both scored 4 prospects for the A's...

l might be willing to take the O's top 4 prospects

Edited July 29, 2022 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[Angelsjunky]

28 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Chapman, Olson both scored 4 prospects for the A's...

l might be willing to take the O's top 4 prospects

Let's take a look at those, with FV values of the prospects at the time of the trade:

Chapman: 45, 40, 40, 35+

Olson: 50, 50, 45, 40

So they got significantly more for Olson, presumably because Chapman was coming off a down year. 

Or to put it another way, here were their age, previous year WAR, and years left of club control:

Olson: 28, 4.9 WAR, 2 years (Braves gave him 8/$168M)

Chapman: 29, 4.0 WAR, 2 years (Blue Jays gave him 2/$25M)

And Shohei:

Ohtani: 28, 8.1 (5.0 this year), 1.3 years

So that at least gives us a starting point: he's got less club control, but is significantly better than either, so the Angels should at least get an Olson-esque package, and probably should be able to get at least one 55 or 60 FV prospect out of it.

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

It's depressing to think about trading Ohtani. Guy is the coolest thing this sports had since Griffey Jr, basically. And you'll never replace that.

That being said...

Do it right, it could be the absolute best thing for this team. 

I mentioned it a few weeks back, but Trout (as stupid as it sounds) in some ways killed the franchise. No fault of his own. But with him emerging, and with Pujols / Hamilton on the books, we had to try and win.  No rebuild. And it killed us.

Now we're in a similar position.. and Trout and Rendon have the very real.potential to "pujols" us. (I don't think either will be that much of an anchor... but alive also been an Angel fan for decades).

If flipping Ohtani lands us 3 bona-fide every day players, you have to consider it a win. No matter how much it socks to lose him.

And the money it will take to keep him could "almost" replace him. The pitching side will be tough. But we can find a DH to put up his numbers for a lot less than he'll cost. (Which may end up being Trout anyway).

I'll be more than happy if we lock him up for life. Screw it, give him a billion. 

But it's probably by far and away the smartest move to trade him at this point.

[mmc]