Gameday Thread: Angels @ A's (5/13/22 6:40 start): Silseth makes his debut, Ward back in the starting lineup

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, stormngt said:

Be honest I do not know wrC+ nor minus so its hard for me to understand.

I was referring to your comment that his offense is kind of like Anderson "good not elite".

I have argued that Ohtani really hasn't proved to he am elite hitter but an awfully good one.  It's one of the things that concerns me when extending him.  His value is that he is a plus hitter and an elite pitcher.  He has been consistent in hitter during his five years.  However he has only shown elite pitching for a year plus.

Should we really expect that Ohtani can be both for the next 7+ years?

100 wRC+ is a league average hitter, so anything above is good, anything below is bad. It essentially means "100% of the average hitter," thus a 120 wRC+ is "20% better than the average hitter."

Shohei's wRC+ last year was 152 - which was 5th best in the majors.

Now the nice thing about wRC+ (which is basically the same as OPS+, but probably slightly more accurate) is that it equalizes for context - era, ballpark, etc. So Garret Anderson, whose peak was in a highly inflated era, peaked out at 129 wRC+ in 2003, and only ever surpassed 120 one other time (123 in 2002). Garret's career wRC+ was 100 -- meaning he was an average hitter over the course of his entire career, relative to the context in which he played. Meaning, from 1994-2010, Garret was exactly average among all hitters for that time.

While there's no clear definition as to what is good, very good, elite, etc, we can get a sense of things by looking at historical precedents, specifically how many hitters performed at a given level. From 2010-19, qualified hitters break down as follows:

1429 qualified (about 143/year)

Highest wRC+ season: 197 by Bryce Harper in 2015.

160+: 43 (4 per year), or 3%

140+: 143 (14 per year), or 10%

120+: 498 (50 per year), or 35%

As you can see, there's a huge difference between what I'd call a "very good hitter" (120+) and an "elite" one (140+).  But it also depends upon what you want to call "elite" - top 10? 20? I think 140 is as good a mark as any, especially considering it perfectly represents the top 10% of all qualifiers (and a much smaller percentage among all hitters).

Either way, my point is 120 is not elite, but still very good - and Shohei's 152 last year was definitely elite.

Again, there's no shame in being "merely" a 120 wRC+ hitter, especially when you pitch like he does. But he was at 152 last year, and 149 his rookie year, so he has the track record to perform at that level. It may just be that due to his streakiness, he'll have some seasons around 120, some around 150.

Mike Trout, on the other hand, has never had a season below 161 - and that was the shortened 2020 season. In a full year, his worst was 167 (2012, 14). Dude is unreal.

Edited May 14, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[Slegnaac]

Another Ohtani consideration will be does he want to pitch every 6th day or every 5th day?

 

[Jay]

On 5/13/2022 at 10:16 PM, Jay said:

I don't know, maybe this team is special.

what a dunce.

[eligrba]

1 minute ago, Jay said:

what a dunce.

Don't sell yourself short!

Welcome to the Dumbass Club.