Time to make Shohei an Angel for life

[IheartLA]

Degrom is gonna break Scherzer’s AAV this off-season. Prob $45m but who knows maybe even up to $50m if he kills it this post season. There’s the floor for Ohtani’s AAV.

Lol at Ohtani accepting a 6 year deal or something incentive laden. He’s gonna want a 10 yr deal. No player wants to enter free agency in his mid to late 30s. He might accept deferred money to make the final numbers work but the end result will be a record breaking sports contract larger than Mahomes.

[Jason]

10 minutes ago, IheartLA said:

Lol at Ohtani accepting a 6 year deal or something incentive laden. He’s gonna want a 10 yr deal. No player wants to enter free agency in his mid to late 30s. He might accept deferred money to make the final numbers work but the end result will be a record breaking sports contract larger than Mahomes.

Bye Ohtani. Thanks for the good years you gave us in Anaheim. We all wish you the best when you're not playing the Angels 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

If Ohtani is serious about winning, as he has previously said, he's gone after 2023 regardless of the offer. The only hope that the Angels have is if they can put together a contending club next season. I have a feeling that Mike Trout is going to get tired of the losing at about the same time and request a trade. No inside info on that one, just a guess.

[Jason]

12 minutes ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

If Ohtani is serious about winning, as he has previously said, he's gone after 2023 regardless of the offer. The only hope that the Angels have is if they can put together a contending club next season. I have a feeling that Mike Trout is going to get tired of the losing at about the same time and request a trade. No inside info on that one, just a guess.

I think Trout knows his contract and injury history makes him untradeable at this point 

[Angels 1961]

54 minutes ago, Jason said:

I think Trout knows his contract and injury history makes him untradeable at this point 

With DH in both leagues Trout could be traded. It would have to be big market team LA, NY maybe Philly. He is still Mike Trout. 

[Jason]

11 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

With DH in both leagues Trout could be traded. It would have to be big market team LA, NY maybe Philly. He is still Mike Trout. 

With as much time as spends on on the IL, not really. Especially with how much he is making in the latter part of that contract. I don't see anyone trading for him 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Jason

[IheartLA]

Trout still has positive trade value he's not Rendon like some seem to think. MLBtradevalues still has him over 20 points so prob a top 100mlb prospect plus taking on the entire contract would be considered fair. No way is that worth it for the Angels so he's not going anywhere unless Trout demands it. 

[Docwaukee]

50 minutes ago, Jason said:

I think Trout knows his contract and injury history makes him untradeable at this point 

Personally think he's tradeable.   Certainly it'd be complicated but with the DH it's more feasible.  

He's owed 300m for the next 8 years entering his age 31yo season.  I'd say that's pretty close to his market value if he were a FA right now.  

[Jason]

10 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

Personally think he's tradeable.   Certainly it'd be complicated but with the DH it's more feasible.  

He's owed 300m for the next 8 years entering his age 31yo season.  I'd say that's pretty close to his market value if he were a FA right now.  

Perhaps. I just think that, given his injury history and the fact that not many ball players get better with age, I doubt there would be many takers. Even if there were teams that wanted to trade for him, I don't think the Angels would do it. He's been the face of their franchise, is still a good player and a fan favorite. It will be interesting to see if Trout ever does request a trade, especially with new ownership coming in. 

[Docwaukee]

27 minutes ago, Jason said:

Perhaps. I just think that, given his injury history and the fact that not many ball players get better with age, I doubt there would be many takers. Even if there were teams that wanted to trade for him, I don't think the Angels would do it. He's been the face of their franchise, is still a good player and a fan favorite. It will be interesting to see if Trout ever does request a trade, especially with new ownership coming in. 

I just see guys like rendon and seager getting monster deals.  I know Seager is younger but even with Trout's recent injuries, I think he's got a decent shot of being worth the money he's owed.  Even this year he's gonna be a 6 win player after missing 30+ games.  And the DH would make a substantial difference.  He could get another 30+ games worth of at bats/rest.  On the halos, he's either sitting out or Ohtani is.   That's a big deal.  

They'd probably have to eat a bit of dough to get better prospects.  

I also would be surprised if he requested a trade.  

[Duren, Duren]

Ohtani's career 162 game average seasonal WAR is 4.0 as a hitter. 5.8 as a pitcher = 9.8. Is it sustainable both on the mound and at the plate? He has had five years so far. One of which was as a hitter only. But at age 27 he is just entering his prime. And currently has been having his best season on the mound while his batting average is 5 points higher than his career average. 

This season his WAR is 3.7 at bat, 5.5 pitching = 9.2 

Trout's 162 game average seasonal WAR is 9.5.  This year it is, 5.7. Also factoring in a chunk of time lost to injury.

Technically, Ohtani was nearly twice as valuable this season combining hitting and pitching. But Trout having his career 162 game averagei s about equal to what Ohtani is doing this year.

It really is about projecting into the future. You would have think Trout will be on a slow decline trajectory. Age, wear and tear and recurring injuries are factors. But his production likely will still be elite for the near term future. Possibly reduced numbers from his typical year, but still above most players till his mid thirties. 

 Ohtani has had injury issues and could very well face more over the length of a multi year contract. But at age 27 his upside is still tantalizing. But I think his value is contingent on remaining an elite pitcher. His WAR as a pitcher is quite a bit higher and is critical for obtaining a record breaking contract. Remember a few years ago when he could only hit? Not a $50 million value. Even with improved stats. 

Angels are between a rock and a hard place. They need two way Ohtani healthy on the field for team success, marketing and franchise pride. But another contract disaster could doom the franchise in all of those areas. And the ownership situation complicates things more.

2023 will be an everyday soap opera. And under the circumstances they need a healthy and productive Trout for stability.

[Angel Oracle]

16 hours ago, Duren, Duren said:

Ohtani's career 162 game average seasonal WAR is 4.0 as a hitter. 5.8 as a pitcher = 9.8. Is it sustainable both on the mound and at the plate? He has had five years so far. One of which was as a hitter only. But at age 27 he is just entering his prime. And currently has been having his best season on the mound while his batting average is 5 points higher than his career average. 

This season his WAR is 3.7 at bat, 5.5 pitching = 9.2 

Trout's 162 game average seasonal WAR is 9.5.  This year it is, 5.7. Also factoring in a chunk of time lost to injury.

Technically, Ohtani was nearly twice as valuable this season combining hitting and pitching. But Trout having his career 162 game averagei s about equal to what Ohtani is doing this year.

It really is about projecting into the future. You would have think Trout will be on a slow decline trajectory. Age, wear and tear and recurring injuries are factors. But his production likely will still be elite for the near term future. Possibly reduced numbers from his typical year, but still above most players till his mid thirties. 

 Ohtani has had injury issues and could very well face more over the length of a multi year contract. But at age 27 his upside is still tantalizing. But I think his value is contingent on remaining an elite pitcher. His WAR as a pitcher is quite a bit higher and is critical for obtaining a record breaking contract. Remember a few years ago when he could only hit? Not a $50 million value. Even with improved stats. 

Angels are between a rock and a hard place. They need two way Ohtani healthy on the field for team success, marketing and franchise pride. But another contract disaster could doom the franchise in all of those areas. And the ownership situation complicates things more.

2023 will be an everyday soap opera. And under the circumstances they need a healthy and productive Trout for stability.

Might be time to give Trout a day off each week starting in June, when the weather heats up and players start to feel some fatigue from the long season?  

Whatever they can do to minimize injury risk, maybe it’s time to consider moving to LF?

140 games of Trout is a lot better than what they’ve gotten these past two years.

[Stradling]

On 9/26/2022 at 3:46 PM, IheartLA said:

Degrom is gonna break Scherzer’s AAV this off-season. Prob $45m but who knows maybe even up to $50m if he kills it this post season. There’s the floor for Ohtani’s AAV.

Lol at Ohtani accepting a 6 year deal or something incentive laden. He’s gonna want a 10 yr deal. No player wants to enter free agency in his mid to late 30s. He might accept deferred money to make the final numbers work but the end result will be a record breaking sports contract larger than Mahomes.

First you reference that deGrom is going to break Scherzer AAV then you say no player wants to enter free agency in their mid 30’s. deGrom is entering free agency at 35.  If you are elite you get paid. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

On 9/26/2022 at 6:24 PM, Docwaukee said:

He's owed 300m for the next 8 years entering his age 31yo season.  I'd say that's pretty close to his market value if he were a FA right now.  

You don’t have to give up players when you sign a FA. So you’d be asking a team to sign him as a FA and give you some of their players. 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Jeff Fletcher

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

You don’t have to give up players when you sign a FA. So you’d be asking a team to sign him as a FA and give you some of their players. 

obviously.  but the point is that what's he's owed over the next 8 years isn't out of line to his value.  

The Marlins were able to move Stanton by eating 30 mil and and taking on the remaining Starlin castro contract (about another 30m) and they got two borderline prospects at best.  

Which is why I also said further down in the thread that they'd probably have to eat a bit of money to get more of a legit return.  

In other words, I think he's tradeable to the point that it's reasonable for another team to take on his full salary and the return would be commensurate with the negotiations from there.  

[Jeff Fletcher]

59 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

obviously.  but the point is that what's he's owed over the next 8 years isn't out of line to his value.  

The Marlins were able to move Stanton by eating 30 mil and and taking on the remaining Starlin castro contract (about another 30m) and they got two borderline prospects at best.  

Which is why I also said further down in the thread that they'd probably have to eat a bit of money to get more of a legit return.  

In other words, I think he's tradeable to the point that it's reasonable for another team to take on his full salary and the return would be commensurate with the negotiations from there.  

I don’t know about your definitions of “a bit” or “legit return” but I think they’d need to eat a lot of money to get any sort of difference making package. 
 

Look at the Arenado trade.

[Docwaukee]

13 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I don’t know about your definitions of “a bit” or “legit return” but I think they’d need to eat a lot of money to get any sort of difference making package. 
 

Look at the Arenado trade.

they were purposely vague.  The point is that he's moveable.  Whereas a guy like Rendon realistically isn't.  For Trout, they could probably find a taker for his entire salary with almost no return.  Or eat a ton of the money for a good return.  Or anywhere in between.  

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, Docwaukee said:

they were purposely vague.  The point is that he's moveable.  Whereas a guy like Rendon realistically isn't.  For Trout, they could probably find a taker for his entire salary with almost no return.  Or eat a ton of the money for a good return.  Or anywhere in between.  

For what it's worth, I understood your point and thought it was perfectly clear.

[Jeff Fletcher]

50 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

they were purposely vague.  The point is that he's moveable.  Whereas a guy like Rendon realistically isn't.  For Trout, they could probably find a taker for his entire salary with almost no return.  Or eat a ton of the money for a good return.  Or anywhere in between.  

I understand what you're saying, but I think it's a distinction that's irrelevant, because realistically (your word) they can't trade either one of them. (Assuming they aren't tanking.)

 

[Adam]

Time to make him a National Leaguer

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I understand what you're saying, but I think it's a distinction that's irrelevant, because realistically (your word) they can't trade either one of them. (Assuming they aren't tanking.)

 

the question was what would happen if Trout requested a trade.  Some thought he was untradeable.  I disagreed.  I agree that the Angels would never bother to even try unless Trout asks for it which I think is pretty unlikely.  

[ten ocho recon scout]

On 9/26/2022 at 7:24 PM, Docwaukee said:

I just see guys like rendon and seager getting monster deals.  I know Seager is younger but even with Trout's recent injuries, I think he's got a decent shot of being worth the money he's owed.  Even this year he's gonna be a 6 win player after missing 30+ games.  And the DH would make a substantial difference.  He could get another 30+ games worth of at bats/rest.  On the halos, he's either sitting out or Ohtani is.   That's a big deal.  

They'd probably have to eat a bit of dough to get better prospects.  

I also would be surprised if he requested a trade.  

So I'm one of the guys who thinks Trouts value is pretty low now, given his injuries and money owed.

But it's crazy that, like you said, he's going to be close to 6 WAR this year with so much time missed.

He's not the same guy he used to be, to a point, but damn... he's still a beast

[IheartLA]

20 hours ago, Stradling said:

First you reference that deGrom is going to break Scherzer AAV then you say no player wants to enter free agency in their mid 30’s. deGrom is entering free agency at 35.  If you are elite you get paid. 

You are per usual playing strawman with what I said. If Ohtani has a 10 year deal for $450M-$500M on the table he's not signing a 6-7yr deal. Just stop. You could maybe make the argument that elite starting pitchers can go 3 years at a time and maximize earnings since the market has proven to be inelastic to them in relation to age/injury. But hitters are almost always better off taking the most $$ now. Degrom has barely played the last few years but he's still going to get paid like he had no injuries. If a hitter had 200PA in his FA year he would certainly be looking at a reduced contract.

Ohtani is both and I'm sure he will get and take a 10y deal from either NYM/LAD/SEA. If he was just a SP I think he'd be more open to scenarios of 3-5yrs if the AAV was 1.5x of his long term offers.

[DMVol]

20 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

I I agree that the Angels would never bother to even try unless Trout asks for it which I think is pretty unlikely.

Not so sure….he might think it’s now or never…pull the trigger and ask now, while his value is still pretty good (after a strong finish coming back from injury)…although I agree with those saying the Angels would need to kick in some money to facilitate a deal….or a prospect, if you want another team to eat all the money….

[Angels 1961]

On 9/26/2022 at 5:46 PM, IheartLA said:

Degrom is gonna break Scherzer’s AAV this off-season. Prob $45m but who knows maybe even up to $50m if he kills it this post season. There’s the floor for Ohtani’s AAV.

Lol at Ohtani accepting a 6 year deal or something incentive laden. He’s gonna want a 10 yr deal. No player wants to enter free agency in his mid to late 30s. He might accept deferred money to make the final numbers work but the end result will be a record breaking sports contract larger than Mahomes.

i agree 10 years 500 mill