Time to make Shohei an Angel for life

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

180 innings = $47 million earned 

200 innings = $50 million earned 

You do realize he would never reach those benchmarks in a 6 man rotation? He is at 153 innings  this year with only 1 more start left. 

[Angel Oracle]

5 minutes ago, Blarg said:

You do realize he would never reach those benchmarks in a 6 man rotation? He is at 153 innings  this year with only 1 more start left. 

Ohtani is expected to make 2 more starts (9/29 and 10/5).

They aren’t that far from utilizing a 5 man rotation.

Ohtani, Sandoval, and Detmers should be able to do so after 2023.

Maybe one other guy can step in by 2024 as well, only leaving one spot to fill with young guys taking those 32 starts total by 2024?

Edited September 24, 2022 by Angel Oracle

[Blarg]

13 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Ohtani is expected to make 2 more starts (9/29 and 10/5).

They aren’t that far from utilizing a 5 man rotation.

Ohtani, Sandoval, and Detmers should be able to do so after 2023.

Maybe one other guy can step in by 2024 as well, only leaving one spot to fill with young guys taking those 32 starts total by 2024?

The 6 man rotation is an Ohtani request. If he wasn't on the team they never would have adopted it. The question is will he pitch in a 5 man rotation? That is the only way you are getting 180 innings out of him. I don't recall any interview where he was considering that as an option. 

[Angel Oracle]

They could skip his turn 3 times during the season to limit him to 30 starts, only 2 more than what he will have this season.

There should be enough farm depth by 2024 to absorb those 3 starts plus fill in other rotation spots as needed, with having a 5 man rotation by 2024.

Then:

$35 million base

$7.5 million if reaching 150 innings

Additional $7.5 million if reaching 180 innings

Total:

$35 million if under 150 innings

$42.5 million if between 150-179 innings

$50 million if at least 180 innings

Edited September 24, 2022 by Angel Oracle

[Taylor]

2 hours ago, Jason said:

6 years. He isn’t all that young and I expect him to break down quicker than other players since he’s doing the dual role thing. 

Would Ohtani accept a 6 year deal though? He might want a team to commit to him for the rest of his career. If he signs through his age 34 season he stands to make a lot less in his ages 35+ seasons. Wouldn't make sense for him personally.

[Jason]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

The 6 man rotation is an Ohtani request. If he wasn't on the team they never would have adopted it. The question is will he pitch in a 5 man rotation? That is the only way you are getting 180 innings out of him. I don't recall any interview where he was considering that as an option. 

No way. That is way too much wear and tear on him. If they can get another solid arm on top of their core guys then I think they will be OK. If that’s what it takes to extend Ohtani, then that’s what they need to do

[Jason]

9 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Would Ohtani accept a 6 year deal though? He might want a team to commit to him for the rest of his career. If he signs through his age 34 season he stands to make a lot less in his ages 35+ seasons. Wouldn't make sense for him personally.

I’m sure that he will want more guaranteed but I fear the back end of that contract may be a disaster for the Angels. Whatever, they just need to sign him and if more years is what it takes then so be it. 

[Angels 1961]

I truly believe he is going to test free agency. An ace pitcher will get 35 plus a season and hitter with his ability 15 a year or more. I think he will end up with 50 million from someone. Contract will be for 8 years minimum.

[Blarg]

5 hours ago, Jason said:

No way. That is way too much wear and tear on him. If they can get another solid arm on top of their core guys then I think they will be OK. If that’s what it takes to extend Ohtani, then that’s what they need to do

Honestly, I don't think the Angels can win a wild card, let alone the division with a 6 man rotation. You have to rely on a 6th level pitcher filling in for 26+ starts. But it's more than that. You are reducing your top 3 pitchers by 6 starts each. That's potentially 18 quality starts thrown away and put in the hands of a 6th starter. It makes winning harder by the percentage of reducing the amount your best pitchers and adding it to your worst. 

Look at it this way 32 starts from Ohtani, Sandoval, Detmers and Suarez override whatever a weak 5th starter logs. But reducing those four to 26 games and now you are adding 26 games to a pitcher probably worse than Lorenzen and you still have to find a couple Lorenzen to pitch the 5th and 6th game. 

So we are back to sourcing 2 pitchers in the off season, hoping for another Syndergaard reclamation? Hoping someone from the minors can pull off a Detmers season? 

This is diminishing returns ceding to Ohtani's 6 man rotation. 

[Swordsman78]

5 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

I truly believe he is going to test free agency. An ace pitcher will get 35 plus a season and hitter with his ability 15 a year or more. I think he will end up with 50 million from someone. Contract will be for 8 years minimum.

The question guys are bringing up is "is he really an ACE pitcher at only 160 innings?  

[Swordsman78]

2 hours ago, Blarg said:

Honestly, I don't think the Angels can win a wild card, let alone the division with a 6 man rotation. You have to rely on a 6th level pitcher filling in for 26+ starts. But it's more than that. You are reducing your top 3 pitchers by 6 starts each. That's potentially 18 quality starts thrown away and put in the hands of a 6th starter. It makes winning harder by the percentage of reducing the amount your best pitchers and adding it to your worst. 

Look at it this way 32 starts from Ohtani, Sandoval, Detmers and Suarez override whatever a weak 5th starter logs. But reducing those four to 26 games and now you are adding 26 games to a pitcher probably worse than Lorenzen and you still have to find a couple Lorenzen to pitch the 5th and 6th game. 

So we are back to sourcing 2 pitchers in the off season, hoping for another Syndergaard reclamation? Hoping someone from the minors can pull off a Detmers season? 

This is diminishing returns ceding to Ohtani's 6 man rotation. 

Maybe Ohtani should be a Full time pitcher #1 and limit his DHing duties?  Pitch every 5th day and hit days 2-3-5

[cals]

I think Ohtani staying with the Angels is going to be more about his confidence in the franchise rather than dollars.  

He really seems like he’d take less to be with the right team and I also think the feels some (but maybe not a lot of) loyalty to the Angels.

With Moreno selling it does complicate things.  They can’t really provide stability and I think, if they lose him to FA, that’s why.

[Angels 1961]

13 hours ago, Swordsman78 said:

The question guys are bringing up is "is he really an ACE pitcher at only 160 innings?  

Without a doubt he is an ace pitcher. Can he pitch in a 5-man rotation being a TWP. not sure. He will get 50 million a year. I think more teams will use 6-man rotation in future. I hate Dodgers more than anyone but feel Ohtani ends up with them. Wants to play with a winner and stay on west coast. Dodgers have money coming off books this year plus are willing to go over lux tax. Angels changing ownership and unless it happens fast feel Ohtani is gone. 

[Docwaukee]

I don't think there's any way you get Shohei to agree to some incentive laden deal.   And I think you're at 8 years minimum and probably 9 or even 10.  

Seager just got 10/325.  Rendon, at age 30, got an aav of 35m.  

He won the mvp last year and is a contender against a guy who's got 60 hrs and is within a BA point of the triple crown on a playoff team.  

Personally think if they have a shot at him it'll be about 10/400-450.  It buys out his last arb year and he can opt out after year 2 and probably a couple more opt outs later in the contract.  

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Docwaukee said:

I don't think there's any way you get Shohei to agree to some incentive laden deal.   And I think you're at 8 years minimum and probably 9 or even 10.  

Seager just got 10/325.  Rendon, at age 30, got an aav of 35m.  

He won the mvp last year and is a contender against a guy who's got 60 hrs and is within a BA point of the triple crown on a playoff team.  

Personally think if they have a shot at him it'll be about 10/400-450.  It buys out his last arb year and he can opt out after year 2 and probably a couple more opt outs later in the contract.  

I’d be happy with 2 or4 more years from him via the opt out.

Don’t see him opting out beyond that, as he would age 33 after the second opt out.

Gives them time to settle on a long term 5 man rotation.

Edited September 26, 2022 by Angel Oracle

[Jay]

On 9/24/2022 at 9:09 PM, Blarg said:

Honestly, I don't think the Angels can win a wild card, let alone the division with a 6 man rotation. You have to rely on a 6th level pitcher filling in for 26+ starts. But it's more than that. You are reducing your top 3 pitchers by 6 starts each. That's potentially 18 quality starts thrown away and put in the hands of a 6th starter. It makes winning harder by the percentage of reducing the amount your best pitchers and adding it to your worst. 

Look at it this way 32 starts from Ohtani, Sandoval, Detmers and Suarez override whatever a weak 5th starter logs. But reducing those four to 26 games and now you are adding 26 games to a pitcher probably worse than Lorenzen and you still have to find a couple Lorenzen to pitch the 5th and 6th game. 

So we are back to sourcing 2 pitchers in the off season, hoping for another Syndergaard reclamation? Hoping someone from the minors can pull off a Detmers season? 

This is diminishing returns ceding to Ohtani's 6 man rotation. 

None of this factors into the WAR equation which is what people are using to determine the MVP leaders.

 

[Angel Oracle]

Updated idea, with the notion of making the incentives somewhat easier to obtain.

Base AAV salary = same as Trout’s at $35 million.

Reaching 150 innings = additional $7.5 million.

Reaching 175 innings = additional $7.5 million.

First offer is for 8 years, opt outs after years 2 and 4.

If not accepting, go for 9 years, opt outs after years 3 and 5.

Remember that he seems to be big on being in the type of setting he’s in now, not the fishbowl that the Skanks, Cubs, and the Doyyers would all be.

[UndertheHalo]

They should do this today.  

[Taylor]

40 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

They should do this today.  

[Blarg]

2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Updated idea, with the notion of making the incentives somewhat easier to obtain.

Base AAV salary = same as Trout’s at $35 million.

Reaching 150 innings = additional $7.5 million.

Reaching 175 innings = additional $7.5 million.

First offer is for 8 years, opt outs after years 2 and 4.

If not accepting, go for 9 years, opt outs after years 3 and 5.

Remember that he seems to be big on being in the type of setting he’s in now, not the fishbowl that the Skanks, Cubs, and the Doyyers would all be.

The innings pitched is entirely controlled by the coaching staff. The coaching staff is controlled by the GM. The GM is controlled by the owner. 

[T.G.]

When was the last time (if ever) a top tier free agent signed an incentive laden deal?

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Updated idea, with the notion of making the incentives somewhat easier to obtain.

Base AAV salary = same as Trout’s at $35 million.

Reaching 150 innings = additional $7.5 million.

Reaching 175 innings = additional $7.5 million.

First offer is for 8 years, opt outs after years 2 and 4.

If not accepting, go for 9 years, opt outs after years 3 and 5.

Remember that he seems to be big on being in the type of setting he’s in now, not the fishbowl that the Skanks, Cubs, and the Doyyers would all be.

Incentives are typically for older or oft injured types.  Not MVP/Cy young candidates.  You might get something at the end of the deal where it would vest an extra year or something.  Someone out there is gonna be willing to pay him 45m for 10 years straight up.  

Plus, the only leverage the Angels have here is that he might be happy about playing in socal without getting bombarded (as much as he might elsewhere) by the media.  

The team has had 7 losing seasons in a row, a few mil here and there might not be as big of a deal to him, the owner is selling the team which creates uncertainty, and the stability of the staff and front office has already be a shit show the last few years.  

They're basically going to acquiesce to his wants and needs if they're gonna try to keep him.  

[Tank]

46 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

The team has had 7 losing seasons in a row, a few mil here and there might not be as big of a deal to him, the owner is selling the team which creates uncertainty, and the stability of the staff and front office has already be a shit show the last few years.

so we sell him on the idea of being the savior of the franchise! brilliant idea, doc!

i've got a bunch of phone calls to make. this is great!!

 

p.s @Adam owes me $20, and @ELEVEN still owes @Lou a beer.

[Jay]

1 hour ago, Docwaukee said:

Someone out there is gonna be willing to pay him 45m for 10 years straight up.  

[Angels 1961]

11 minutes ago, Jay said:

Doyers