OC Register: Alexander: Don’t believe all 2022 MLB predictions – just this one

[AngelsWin.com]

In an earlier era of journalism, this might have been labeled a “clip and save” column – and those who attached it to the bulletin board or refrigerator would have a good laugh six or seven months later when those bold predictions flamed out. (Now, of course, those who read online can simply bookmark the story … and while I can’t make it self-destruct, if I’m wrong maybe you won’t be able to find it in your browser by Nov. 1.)

Nevertheless, Opening Day approaches, so it’s appropriate to explain why I picked who I did to be the last ones standing at the end of the 2022 baseball season.

From east to best – and that’s a hint, not a typo – here we go:

NL East: 1. Braves, 2. Mets, 3. Nationals, 4. Phillies, 5. Marlins.

The idea that the highest luxury-tax threshold is now known as the “Steve Cohen Tax” is proof that it’s a new day in Flushing, and the Mets will no longer be outbid. But the Braves are still the champs, and the return of Ronald Acuña Jr. – who missed the merriment last fall after wrecking his knee in July – will give Atlanta enough of a boost to stay on top.

AL East: 1. Blue Jays, 2. Rays, 3. Yankees, 4. Red Sox, 5. Orioles.

Toronto’s Charlie Montoyo should have been 2021 AL Manager of the Year – I was on the BBWAA panel and he had my vote – for getting his team to the brink of the playoffs while playing home games in three cities: Dunedin, Buffalo and Toronto. The Jays are really good, and as long as Canada maintains its vaccination rules – essentially, no shot, no play – and certain U.S.-based players (including members of the Yankees and Red Sox) decline to get the jab, Toronto will have an even bigger home-field advantage.

NL Central: 1. Cardinals, 2. Brewers, 3. Cubs, 4. Pirates, 5. Reds.

What’s more compelling: The race for the top, with St. Louis outlasting Milwaukee in the 21st-century version of Beer Wars, or Pittsburgh and Cincinnati competing to see who can reduce payroll the most? The Cubs are in the wobbly middle, not bad enough to race to the bottom, not good enough to distract owner Tom Ricketts from his bid to buy Chelsea FC.

AL Central: 1. Twins, 2. White Sox, 3. Tigers, 4. Royals, 5. Guardians.

Minnesota won the Central in 2019 and ’20, fell to last place in a weak division in 2021, and could rise back to the top of a similarly weak division in 2022, with the addition of free agent Carlos Correa and the acquisitions of Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela from the Yankees. The White Sox will be a distant runner-up, and for the other three the magic number is 2023 and beyond.

NL West: 1. Dodgers, 2. Padres, 3. Giants, 4. Rockies, 5. Diamondbacks.

After winning 106 games and having to survive the wild-card game in 2021, the Dodgers will start a new streak of division titles. And here’s one guarantee: Their starting pitching rotation will be better at the end of the season than it is at the beginning, because Dustin May will return from Tommy John surgery at midseason and Bobby Miller will emerge in the final months.

Meanwhile, Bob Melvin will settle things down in San Diego and the Padres will chase down the Giants, who take a step back with Buster Posey’s retirement. But you think this division was competitive before? It’ll be a beast for years to come.

AL West: 1. Mariners, 2. Astros, 3. Angels, 4. Rangers, 5. A’s.

Seattle will end a two-decade absence from the playoffs after adding AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray and All-Stars Adam Frazier and Jesse Winker to a team that won 90 games in 2021. The Astros are still the Astros, and a dynamic bullpen and full seasons from Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon along with Shohei Ohtani’s brilliance will have the Angels in the thick of things.

The other narrative in the AL West: How can an A’s team again receiving revenue-sharing money justify paring its payroll so relentlessly? As of Wednesday morning it’s a projected $43.7 million, according to Cot’s Contracts, down from $83.8 million in 2021, and 60% of the opening-day roster may be making the $700,000 minimum. Yes, payroll disparities are bad for baseball, but start at the bottom, not the top.

Wild cards: Brewers, Mets and Padres in the NL, Astros, Angels and Rays in the AL.

Yes, you read that correctly. Neither the Yankees or Red Sox will be involved in the postseason, nor will anyone from the AL Central. Hopefully ESPN, Fox and Turner, who share postseason TV rights, survive the ratings carnage. The four top teams in the East will beat up on each other so badly, it will enable a second team from the West to sneak in.

Edge-of-the-cliff round (i.e., Wild Card Series): NL – Padres over Cardinals, Brewers over Mets (Dodgers and Braves have byes). AL – Angels over Rays, Astros over Twins (Blue Jays and Mariners have byes).

The last time the Angels won a playoff series was 2009, when they swept the Red Sox in the divisional series before losing to the Yankees in the ALCS. Will this year be an outlier or the first of a string of postseason appearances, as the 2000s were in Anaheim?

Division series: NL – Dodgers over Brewers, Braves over Padres. AL – Blue Jays over Angels, Astros over Mariners.

With a best-of-five series and plenty of time to arrange their starting pitching, the Dodgers will make quick work of Milwaukee. The Angels will take theirs to a fifth game in the autumn chill of Toronto and will almost pull it off.

Related Articles

• Los Angeles Dodgers |
  Dodgers are World Series favorites again but know ‘on paper’ means little
• Los Angeles Dodgers |
  The 2022 Dodgers, position by position
• Los Angeles Dodgers |
  2022 Dodgers regular-season schedule
• Los Angeles Dodgers |
  Dodgers prospect Bobby Miller impresses in Freeway Series finale
• Los Angeles Dodgers |
  Dodgers’ Dustin May making progress toward return

League Championship Series: NL – Dodgers over Braves. AL – Astros over Blue Jays.

It’s the rubber match in the NL, with the 2020 champ nudging aside the 2021 champ. Meanwhile, Houston wins Game 7 in Toronto, leading to speculation about how possible it might be to jam the new PitchCom anti-sign-stealing technology.

World Series: Dodgers over Houston in 7.

Dave Roberts guaranteed it, after all. The Dodgers will win it all in their own ballpark for the first time since Sandy Koufax leaped off the mound in triumph in 1963. And then maybe the results of 2017 will no longer be such an irritant in this town.

jalexander@scng.com

@Jim_Alexander on Twitter

View the full article

[floplag]

If this team misses the playoffs Arte should fire himself.

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

If this team misses the playoffs Arte should fire himself.

We have the talent to make the playoffs. It's on the team now. 

[Angel Oracle]

Autumn chill of Toronto?

Uhh, it’s indoors!

[failos]

This guy sucks at journalism

[Taylor]

I didn't know Jerry Dipoto wrote under the pseudonym Jim Alexander.

[floplag]

5 hours ago, Lou said:

We have the talent to make the playoffs. It's on the team now. 

IF everything goes right... Almost no one is picking us as anything more than a maybe WC team, we could have been so much better. 

[UndertheHalo]

It’s great that everyone is banking on the Angels to do the Angels thing and eat shit.  We’ve got ‘em right where want them.  

[Lou]

41 minutes ago, floplag said:

IF everything goes right... Almost no one is picking us as anything more than a maybe WC team, we could have been so much better. 

You can say that about 98% of the teams. 

[Inside Pitch]

Mariners are already in midseason form ...  finished ST over .500 with a (-9), run differential.

[Pancake Bear]

7 hours ago, AngelsWin.com said:

AL West: 1. Mariners, 2. Astros, 3. Angels, 4. Rangers, 5. A’s.

What a dumbass. The Mariners beat their Pythagorean record by 14 wins. That isn't happening again. Even with improvements, doubtful they come close to 90. 

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

You can say that about 98% of the teams. 

Really?
You dont think a lot less has to go right for many of them?  
We need it all to go right and other to go wrong...  6 ahead of us just need it to go right.  
Which position would you rather be in?

[Lou]

Just now, floplag said:

Really?
You dont think a lot less has to go right for many of them?  
We need it all to go right and other to go wrong...  6 ahead of us just need it to go right.  
Which position would you rather be in?

Nope. I think there's print only a couple of teams that don't need everything to go right. If things go wrong for those other teams, they'll be in trouble, too. 

All of the teams "behind" us are also included in that 98%.

[floplag]

12 hours ago, Lou said:

Nope. I think there's print only a couple of teams that don't need everything to go right. If things go wrong for those other teams, they'll be in trouble, too. 

All of the teams "behind" us are also included in that 98%.

Thats fine but the ones behind us have nothing to do with the matter at hand though do they?

[ScottT]

I believe far too many people are picking the Mariners 

[Lou]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Thats fine but the ones behind us have nothing to do with the matter at hand though do they?

Sure they do. You don't think that if a team that is directly behind us has everything go right will be a contender for a WC spot?  I do. 

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

Sure they do. You don't think that if a team that is directly behind us has everything go right will be a contender for a WC spot?  I do. 

If we have everything go right, will it matter what those behind us do?
The point, to get back to it, is that WE need everything to go right AND other people to not do the same.
And that this was a choice made by the front office, not a necessity, as the pieces were there, we simply chose not to act on them for whatever reasons, mostly payroll.
Im hopeful, dont et me wrong, i think we could be in the mix for more than just a WC, but most people who know more about all this than i do and do this for a living, do not, and thats frustrating. 

[Lou]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

If we have everything go right, will it matter what those behind us do?
The point, to get back to it, is that WE need everything to go right AND other people to not do the same.
And that this was a choice made by the front office, not a necessity, as the pieces were there, we simply chose not to act on them for whatever reasons, mostly payroll.
Im hopeful, dont et me wrong, i think we could be in the mix for more than just a WC, but most people who know more about all this than i do and do this for a living, do not, and thats frustrating. 

You don't know if the FO chose not to act on them. Some players just prefer to play elsewhere. 

[Stradling]

16 minutes ago, floplag said:

If we have everything go right, will it matter what those behind us do?
The point, to get back to it, is that WE need everything to go right AND other people to not do the same.
And that this was a choice made by the front office, not a necessity, as the pieces were there, we simply chose not to act on them for whatever reasons, mostly payroll.
Im hopeful, dont et me wrong, i think we could be in the mix for more than just a WC, but most people who know more about all this than i do and do this for a living, do not, and thats frustrating. 

I disagree. If everything goes right we will be a World Series contender. Hell we may be a World Series contender with health  alone. 

[Stradling]

Also if every team did everything they could to win every year there would be no free agency and the teams that draft and develop the best would win it all every single year. 

[Revad]

Many teams have a real shortstop so have less to worry about.  GoAngels!

[greginpsca]

In 2002 the Angels were picked to come in last place by many of these so-called experts. At the end of the year, there was a BBQ sauce shortage caused by all the crow these guys were eating. Hopefully, this season will be similar.

[angelsnationtalk]

Love how people still fall back to Dodgers and Astros in World Series. 

Sure, the Dodgers' lineup is stacked but their pitching isn't what it was. To me, they've got a BIG question mark in that area. 
Let alone Cody Bellinger and an aging Justin Turner

[floplag]

4 hours ago, Lou said:

You don't know if the FO chose not to act on them. Some players just prefer to play elsewhere. 

Nor do you know either way.
The point is moot, the results speak.

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

Nor do you know either way.
The point is moot, the results speak.

But unlike you, I didn't claim they did or didn't.