The state of the AL West entering the offseason

[mmc]

Just wanted to talk a bit about the division, where everyone lies, and what everyone expects from these teams this offseason 

The Astros won and are likely still in their window, even though they are set to lose Correa, as we all know they had an incredible season last year making the World Series, and it’s hard to see a scenario in which we finish ahead of them.  I’d still have them as the betting favorite to win the division.

Seattle finished 2nd last year, winning 90 games, however ultimately missed the playoffs.  A lot of their great season has been attributed to luck, but with prospects ready to break out, and an ownership/GM prepared to spend, there’s no reason this team can’t continue to compete next season.

 

At 3rd we have Oakland who still finished 9 wins above the Angels, but are listening on all of their players and can be expected to drop off next season.  They do have a history of pulling great seasons out of nowhere though.  Ultimately I expect a record similar to the Angels last year for them, but then competing until the end wouldn’t surprise me.

Now you get to us, who will certainly be trying to compete next season but have 3 teams to overcome to take the division.  Very hard to predict how we’ll do with how many question marks we have but I think it’s more likely we miss than make the playoffs at this point without significant upgrades.  We’ll see where the offseason takes us.

 

In last by far was Texas last season, and I expect them to remain in last place next season.  The farm system is improving and they are also prepared to spend but are ultimately still 2-3 years away from competing IMO.

 

How do you guys see it?

[UndertheHalo]

I suspect that Houston will be good and probably remain the main obstacle for the Angels to clear if they want a division banner.   Their pitching situation seems to possibly be an opening.  Texas I don’t think will be good.  Oakland I think is getting set to go into one of their refresh modes but who can say.  They figure it out often.  Seattle is the most interesting.  If they have a good off season they could probably take a big step forward and be a real contender.  If they don’t do anything I suspect that they’ll probably regress decently.  Didn’t they have like -100 run differential or something silly ? Anyway, they have some core there that they can build around it seems. 

the angels are the angels.  With some health luck and performances from the guys they have that approach expectations they should have a shot.  If they have a great off season who knows.  There’s always the possibility that it’ll all just go to hell as well.  We’re all use to that the last decade.  Mostly. 

 

[yamsi12]

Angels don’t make the playoffs in 2022 they go into panic mode. Can you imagine the calamity if they don’t and trout asks for a trade?

[Hubs]

Houston did resign verlander but their luck will run out. I’d expect a small drop off with out Springer and Correa and Cole. Losing 3 of their 5 best players from the 2017-2019 cheating teams…

We can win the division if they resign Iglesias and also add another starter to go with Ohtani and Syndergaard if their healthy

[eligrba]

Damn shame the only World Series the Astros won with all of their talent was due to cheating. 

The A’s will be annoying.

Texas needs more than the Angels to be competitive.

Fuck Seattle. I have more faith that Dipoto will screw up any possible chances for Seattle to make smart moves. He has done a great job remaking the organization but I’m not sure he is able to get them to the next level. I guess we will find out.

 

[HanfordGuy]

92 Ws will win the AL West. Astros will be weaker and the Rangers won’t be good. If the A’s trade Olson and or Chapman, then they’re rebuilding. The Angels have to stay healthy this year. M’s could get better in free agency but they were very lucky last year and will have to land at least 2 premium SPs and one of the top SS. I’m guessing it’s a 3 horse race between the Astros, M’s and Angels in 2022.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

4 hours ago, mmc said:

At 3rd we have Oakland who still finished 9 wins above the Angels, but are listening on all of their players and can be expected to drop off next season.  They do have a history of pulling great seasons out of nowhere though.  Ultimately I expect a record similar to the Angels last year for them, but then competing until the end wouldn’t surprise me.

They still haven't told us where they are going to build the ballpark.

[Blarg]

It's the A's so wherever your homeless and drug addicts hang out. 

[eligrba]

10 hours ago, Blarg said:

It's the A's so wherever your homeless and drug addicts hang out. 

....and where the sewage empties.

[AngelStew43]

16 hours ago, yamsi12 said:

Angels don’t make the playoffs in 2022 they go into panic mode. Can you imagine the calamity if they don’t and trout asks for a trade?

IIRC, Babe Ruth was traded.  Willie Mays, traded.  Henry Aaron, traded.  It is extremely rare for any player to spend his career with one team.  

I don't want the Angels to ever trade Mike Trout, but it is always possible.

[Docwaukee]

17 hours ago, Hubs said:

Houston did resign verlander but their luck will run out. I’d expect a small drop off with out Springer and Correa and Cole. Losing 3 of their 5 best players from the 2017-2019 cheating teams…

We can win the division if they resign Iglesias and also add another starter to go with Ohtani and Syndergaard if their healthy

They had already lost 2 of those guys and were without Verlander all year yet still won 95 games.  And Tucker and Alvarez could continue to get better.  What they're doing isn't luck.  We have to face facts that they're a good team and have a really strong chance to finish with 95+ wins again.  

The Angels have to start winning games in the division.  They were 6-13, 4-15, 8-11, and 11-8 vs. Hou, Oak, Sea, and Tex last year.  That's 29-47.  Or 18 games below .500.  Which means they were 10 games over .500 otherwise.  The best and easiest way to gain ground or put room between you and the teams you are directly fighting against is to beat them. 

Texas will be better but probably not by a lot.  Seattle will be very very lucky to be the same but I think they step back by 6-7 games.  Oakland will be worse likely assuming they trade away some key players.  But they won't be an absolute cupcake. 

But the Angels actually have a say in how good these other teams are.  If they don't beat them, then they'll look a lot better.    You can't play against your division as if you're a 100 loss team and expect to have a shot.  

[Hubs]

8 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

They had already lost 2 of those guys and were without Verlander all year yet still won 95 games.  And Tucker and Alvarez could continue to get better.  What they're doing isn't luck.  We have to face facts that they're a good team and have a really strong chance to finish with 95+ wins again.  

The Angels have to start winning games in the division.  They were 6-13, 4-15, 8-11, and 11-8 vs. Hou, Oak, Sea, and Tex last year.  That's 29-47.  Or 18 games below .500.  Which means they were 10 games over .500 otherwise.  The best and easiest way to gain ground or put room between you and the teams you are directly fighting against is to beat them. 

Texas will be better but probably not by a lot.  Seattle will be very very lucky to be the same but I think they step back by 6-7 games.  Oakland will be worse likely assuming they trade away some key players.  But they won't be an absolute cupcake. 

But the Angels actually have a say in how good these other teams are.  If they don't beat them, then they'll look a lot better.    You can't play against your division as if you're a 100 loss team and expect to have a shot.  

I agree with you percent. I think the unbalanced division schedule sucks and I never understood how much until 2015 when they added the Astros to our division. I really want expansion, four divisions of four and to limit intradivision play to 14 games vs the current 19. 42 games versus division and 
 

Also I’d expand interleague play to four specific weeks (24 games). Probably say one week in the beginning of May and June. Then say the end of July and end of August. I would play one whole division on the road and one at home. I’d play west vs west every year and then rotate the other three. 
 

Anyway, we’ve arguably suffered as much as any other team because of the Astros cheating, which I still firmly believe that they have continued in 2021. They are doing it differently but they are still doing it. All of their hitters returned to their previous 2017 OPS’s. But we need to beat them 10-12 times a year versus losing 13 or 14. 
 

And the A’s have had our number the last three years. That should change if they have a fire sale.

Mariners are lucky but still have talent. I expect they will be right around their 90 Wins, maybe 87-91 with some key free agent additions.

Rangers are still two years away.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

18 hours ago, Blarg said:

It's the A's so wherever your homeless and drug addicts hang out. 

So the Cashman Field location, then. There are two or three homeless shelters on the same street, so the homeless camp out there in hopes of getting one of the first-come-first-served spots in one of them every night.

[HanfordGuy]

22 hours ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

They still haven't told us where they are going to build the ballpark.

The Howard Terminal area is a nice spot but it appears the owner has Vegas as the preferred location and is just stringing the city, Alameda County and A’s fans along.

[ten ocho recon scout]

21 hours ago, Blarg said:

It's the A's so wherever your homeless and drug addicts hang out. 

The bike trail behind angel stadium?

 

When we're away, the Halo is green maybe

[Redondo]

49 minutes ago, HanfordGuy said:

The Howard Terminal area is a nice spot but it appears the owner has Vegas as the preferred location and is just stringing the city, Alameda County and A’s fans along.

I hope they do move to Vegas 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

55 minutes ago, HanfordGuy said:

The Howard Terminal area is a nice spot but it appears the owner has Vegas as the preferred location and is just stringing the city, Alameda County and A’s fans along.

The same thing has been suggested here - that they are just stringing the city along in order to get what they want from Oakland.

[khouse]

IF he fulfills his promise, things are likely to get more interesting if either Texas or Seattle sign Suzuki, given their rumored interest. 

[totdprods]

I really think Oakland is going to blow it up. They'll prioritize trade returns that will help in the near-term, as always, and they have a decent number of in-house prospects and a stadium beneficial enough to pitching where they won't be out for long. But I expect 2022-23 to be pretty bad for them.

Houston is entering a new era where they'll prove their 'dynasty' or they'll stumble like most orgs do after a good near-decade run. They basically never miss in free agency which is huge for them right now. If they continue to have success there, they'll be plenty good next year. 

Texas has a ways to go, but they're going to spend and I think they can come along quicker than expected. The new ballpark is conducive for pitching and if they land a couple arms who do well, plus a big bat, they'll be in good shape sooner rather than later.

Seattle is an enigma. They could crash and burn, Dipoto could get antsy and make the wrong trades, free agents could balk because of the clubhouse tensions, they could spend big and kill it with their farm. Who knows.

[mmc]

Boy has it changed quite a bit over the course of just over a week

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, mmc said:

Boy has it changed quite a bit over the course of just over a week

Has it?  I’d still put it as Astros, then us or Seattle, then the A’s who are selling then the Rangers

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

On 11/20/2021 at 4:33 PM, Hubs said:

Houston did resign verlander but their luck will run out. I’d expect a small drop off with out Springer and Correa and Cole. Losing 3 of their 5 best players from the 2017-2019 cheating teams…

We can win the division if they resign Iglesias and also add another starter to go with Ohtani and Syndergaard if their healthy

Correct, IF, they're healthy!....

[Blarg]

27 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Has it?  I’d still put it as Astros, then us or Seattle, then the A’s who are selling then the Rangers

Years ago I told @Inside Pitch that all of the peripherals don't mean much if they don't equate to actual solid performances. This was a discussion about a couple of Angels pitchers that just weren't showing any success.

Until the Angels get their ass out of fourth place in their division all of the paper predictions don't mean shit. They are a fourth place team with potential but nothing else until the wins exceed the losses by a much greater margin. 

[HanfordGuy]

Did the Rangers just pass us???

[Revad]

4 hours ago, HanfordGuy said:

Did the Rangers just pass us???

Given good health the Angels should be a competitive (as opposed to championship) team, finishing second or third in the AL West.  The chances of a wildcard seem slim as the division has improved significantly.