Projected 28-Man Roster (Updated 4/6)

[Angelsjunky]

19 minutes ago, totdprods said:

The only quibble I have is that you can't always necessarily divide up games that way. Matchups will play a big factor. Struggles will play a factor. Getting Player X a certain number of reps plays a factor. Very minor, day-to-day injuries will play a factor. 

Absolutely. As I said, my point was simply to give an example of how starts can be distributed to get everyone playing time - not as a prediction of what will actually occur, which as you say, depends upon a lot of factors (injuries, matchups, performance, etc).

It could also be illustrated more simply:

5 positions x 30 starts = 150 starts / 6 players = 25 starts per player (on average)

5 positions x 30 starts = 150 starts / 7 players = 21.4 starts per player (on average)

Obviously not all six (or seven) guys will get the average number of starts. 

And added to the fact that of the players assigned to those five positions, Trout and Ohtani are the only ones who are considered truly full-time players. Walsh maybe, but given that about 28% of innings are pitched by left-handers, unless he learns to hit them, he may start only about 80-85% of games.

We all know that starting pitching has gradually reduced. Back in the 80s and 90s, you expected 200 innings, and a really good and/or resilient starter would pitch 250. But 180--or even 160--is the new 200, and 200 the new 250. We also have seen a lot of 2-3 inning starters, or "platoon starters." But I think the same sort of thing has happened with position players.

 

 

[greginpsca]

When talking about who make the roster for position players, i think about Perry's comments about run prevention. That said, i would think the best outfield would be Trout, Adell, and Marsh, with Ward as the 4th of'er. I think that would be the best offensive and defensive outfield. Yeah, i know that won't happen because they are gonna try and squeeze the Upton option again. What little offense they might get from Upton, will be negated by his defense. did ya hear that Perry?   In the infield, Walsh, Duffy, Fletcher and Rendon. Pretty solid all the way around. Wade looks like a good utility guy. Ward can also back up at first or platoon with Walsh. Ward would also be an emergency catcher if needed. This team should score a lot of runs. What i like also is with the starters i listed, is their team speed. Ohtani, Trout, Adell, Marsh, Fletcher, and Wade give you 6 guys that can steal bases and pressure defenses. With good health, this should be a pretty good all around lineup.

[Angelsjunky]

25 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

When talking about who make the roster for position players, i think about Perry's comments about run prevention. That said, i would think the best outfield would be Trout, Adell, and Marsh, with Ward as the 4th of'er. I think that would be the best offensive and defensive outfield. Yeah, i know that won't happen because they are gonna try and squeeze the Upton option again. What little offense they might get from Upton, will be negated by his defense. did ya hear that Perry?   In the infield, Walsh, Duffy, Fletcher and Rendon. Pretty solid all the way around. Wade looks like a good utility guy. Ward can also back up at first or platoon with Walsh. Ward would also be an emergency catcher if needed. This team should score a lot of runs. What i like also is with the starters i listed, is their team speed. Ohtani, Trout, Adell, Marsh, Fletcher, and Wade give you 6 guys that can steal bases and pressure defenses. With good health, this should be a pretty good all around lineup.

I agree, although think there's a sense of obligation to give Upton his chance - even if everyone knows that the end goal is to have Trout, Adell and Marsh in there.

Even if the Angels send Marsh down to start the year, it might not take long for the Angels to come to the conclusion that an outfield defense of Trout and a platoon of Upton-Adell-Ward in LF/RF isn't the greatest defensively. 

[mmc]

Interesting reassignments...

 

[mmc]

Does this mean one of Mayfield or Rojas is making the team?

[mmc]

Stefanic the other IF still on the roster of course but don't see him making it over those 2

[totdprods]

I totally forgot about Cesar Valdez but I actually think he has a reasonable shot at making the pen. He brings an entirely different view out of the pen compared to all the other high-velo guys, and the Angels had a lot of success with change-ups last year, something Valdez throws near exclusively? if I remember. I think he's got some mop-up, multi-inning/spot-start utility too. 

I've said it before, but I always always always think the Angels should open the season with a couple NRI relievers if for no other reason than to preserve depth. That's a little trickier this year because the 40-man is pretty tight. Relievers are so volatile, pitching depth is so crucial...kick off the season with Moran, Barraclough, and Valdez tying up the last spots in the pen and option the guys with options, barring spectacularly good spring production by a kid arm or spectacularly bad production from a NRI arm. 

If any of the those NRIs aren't getting the job done 3-4 weeks in, pull the plug and promote a kid or two. 

The only problem this year is that it may come at the expense of a kid on the 40 who has options (Marte, Peguero, Criswell, Ortega) and in that case I'd rather hold onto the young arms. But Mayfield? Velazquez? Our IF depth isn't so bad that we couldn't risk trying to slip one through waivers. Criswell could wind up being a 60-man candidate if his shoulder takes some time too.

 

[Hubs]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

While I think there's a better than even chance that Marsh starts in AAA, I highly doubt Adell joins him. He's paid his dues, logged a lot more games in AAA than Marsh (100 to 24), and Ward simply isn't good enough to block him. Plus, even if they want Ward in there two-thirds of the time to star the year, Upton won't play every game and Walsh may sit against lefties and Ohtani will have off days, so there will more at-bats at 1B and 3B.

Marsh will be back up sometime in the first half, hopefully.

I think you're right on most of this, but I think Ward is gonna start 22-24 times, and Upton 23-25.

Looking at the schedule, however, Ohtani lines up to pitch on the 7th, 14th, 20th, and 27th. They're off on the day before his start twice and the day after once. So Maybe Ohtani sits on 4/28 and 5/4. (And possibly on Friday the 8th, but I doubt that since they have the 6th off and it's a nationally televised game).

I also think that Trout will play at least 27 of the first 30 in the field, as will Ohtani then at DH. That means Trout only gets 2 DH starts. I don't think Upton will be the DH more than once.

So I have it at Trout 29/30 (CF 27, DH 2); Ohtani 28/30 (SP 4, DH 24); Upton 23/30 (LF 22, 1B 1); Ward 22/30 (RF 16, LF 2, CF 1, 1B 3); Walsh 26/30 (1B 26); Adell 22/30 (LF 5, RF 14, CF 2).

 

 

[mmc]

 

[BTH]

1 hour ago, mmc said:

Does this mean one of Mayfield or Rojas is making the team?

Probably, yes.

Locked up catching spots: Stassi & Suzuki.

Locked up infield spots: Duffy, Fletcher, Rendon, Wade, & Walsh.

Locked up outfield spots: Trout, Upton, & Ward.

That leaves 2 spots for: Adell/Marsh/Mayfield/Rojas/Romine/Stefanic

A 3rd spot would open up if they decide to have a 5-man bench and only 9 relievers.

[Angelsjunky]

Or to put it another way:

2-3 of: Adell, Mayfield, Rojas, Marsh, Romine, Stefanic.

2-3 of: Detmers, Herget, Ortega, Marte, Moran, Barraclough, Valdez, Buttrey, Peguero.

Is that correct? Or am I missing a reliever or two?

I didn't include Barria, because I assume he's a lock to make the pitching staff in some form or other, it just remains unclear if as a starter or a reliever (if Detmers wins the 6th spot).

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Hubs said:

I think you're right on most of this, but I think Ward is gonna start 22-24 times, and Upton 23-25.

Looking at the schedule, however, Ohtani lines up to pitch on the 7th, 14th, 20th, and 27th. They're off on the day before his start twice and the day after once. So Maybe Ohtani sits on 4/28 and 5/4. (And possibly on Friday the 8th, but I doubt that since they have the 6th off and it's a nationally televised game).

I also think that Trout will play at least 27 of the first 30 in the field, as will Ohtani then at DH. That means Trout only gets 2 DH starts. I don't think Upton will be the DH more than once.

So I have it at Trout 29/30 (CF 27, DH 2); Ohtani 28/30 (SP 4, DH 24); Upton 23/30 (LF 22, 1B 1); Ward 22/30 (RF 16, LF 2, CF 1, 1B 3); Walsh 26/30 (1B 26); Adell 22/30 (LF 5, RF 14, CF 2).

 

Yeah, sure - it could be any number of actual configurations. Again, I wasn't as much predicting as I was showing how they all could get substantial playing time - which you gave another version of.

[Angelsjunky]

I've updated the list again, but changed things up - now the lighter red is "remaining candidates," so expanded a bit, and Group A are more of the "extended bench" types while B is guys who could be called up at some point, but less likely in the first half.

 

Edited March 30, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[Angels 1961]

40 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I've updated the list again, but changed things up - now the lighter red is "remaining candidates," so expanded a bit, and Group A are more of the "extended bench" types while B is guys who could be called up at some point, but less likely in the first half.

 

Ramos out for the year

[mmc]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Or to put it another way:

2-3 of: Adell, Mayfield, Rojas, Marsh, Romine, Stefanic.

2-3 of: Detmers, Herget, Ortega, Marte, Moran, Barraclough, Valdez, Buttrey, Peguero.

Is that correct? Or am I missing a reliever or two?

I didn't include Barria, because I assume he's a lock to make the pitching staff in some form or other, it just remains unclear if as a starter or a reliever (if Detmers wins the 6th spot).

Peguero was optioned a couple days ago

[Angelsjunky]

OK, Ramos ejected and Peguero moved to Group A. I'll update the roster on the first page.

[tdawg87]

Mayfield can "play" multiple positions. I'm guessing he makes the team.

[BTH]

@Jeff Fletcherdo you think Adell is a lock for the Opening Day Roster despite Maddon's quotes last week in your article about Adell?

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I've updated the list again, but changed things up - now the lighter red is "remaining candidates," so expanded a bit, and Group A are more of the "extended bench" types while B is guys who could be called up at some point, but less likely in the first half.

 

At 28, it's tough to see them going more than 16 pitchers including Ohtani. (Shohei, Syndergaard, Sandoval, Suarez, Detmers, Lorenzen, Barria, Iglesias, Mayers, Tepera, Loup, Bradley, Warren, Quijada, Ortega, Herget is my guess)...no 40-man moves will be necessary.

That would leave 12 position player spots for Trout, Rendon, Upton, Fletcher, Wade, Walsh, Stassi, Suzuki, Duffy, Adell, Ward and Mayfield/Rojas/Stefanic/Marsh). Only Stefanic would require a 40-man adjustment. 

That may work itself out if they make a trade or release a fringe pitcher or infielder but who knows.

 

[BTH]

2 minutes ago, Hubs said:

At 28, it's tough to see them going more than 16 pitchers including Ohtani. (Shohei, Syndergaard, Sandoval, Suarez, Detmers, Lorenzen, Barria, Iglesias, Mayers, Tepera, Loup, Bradley, Warren, Quijada, Ortega, Herget is my guess)...no 40-man moves will be necessary.

That would leave 12 position player spots for Trout, Rendon, Upton, Fletcher, Wade, Walsh, Stassi, Suzuki, Duffy, Adell, Ward and Mayfield/Rojas/Stefanic/Marsh). Only Stefanic would require a 40-man adjustment. 

That may work itself out if they make a trade or release a fringe pitcher or infielder but who knows.

If they want to add 1-2 guys to the 40, I don't think they'll have any issue.

First, they could move Cooper Criswell to the 60-day IL.

Second, they could DFA Andrew Velazquez, especially if they were doing so to add Stefanic to the 40-man.

[mmc]

Personally would much rather they DFA Mayfield than Velazquez

[Hubs]

Just now, Trendon said:

If they want to add 1-2 guys to the 40, I don't think they'll have any issue.

First, they could move Cooper Criswell to the 60-day IL.

Second, they could DFA Andrew Velazquez, especially if they were doing so to add Stefanic to the 40-man.

I think that's exactly what they'll do. I don't know when Buttrey has to be added from the restricted list, but I am assuming it will happen, they will not risk losing a pitcher with his arm, and so he will be on the 40.

So I agree with you...Velazquez will likely pass through waivers at this point.

[Hubs]

1 minute ago, mmc said:

Personally would much rather they DFA Mayfield than Velazquez

As would Mayfield.

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, Hubs said:

At 28, it's tough to see them going more than 16 pitchers including Ohtani. (Shohei, Syndergaard, Sandoval, Suarez, Detmers, Lorenzen, Barria, Iglesias, Mayers, Tepera, Loup, Bradley, Warren, Quijada, Ortega, Herget is my guess)...no 40-man moves will be necessary.

That would leave 12 position player spots for Trout, Rendon, Upton, Fletcher, Wade, Walsh, Stassi, Suzuki, Duffy, Adell, Ward and Mayfield/Rojas/Stefanic/Marsh). Only Stefanic would require a 40-man adjustment. 

That may work itself out if they make a trade or release a fringe pitcher or infielder but who knows.

 

Yeah, I think it will be 15-16 pitchers, 12-13 position players.

I think your guesses are as good as any, with the caveat that there's some wiggle on whether they go for 9 or 10 relievers, who among your last four they'll go with. Stefanic makes the least sense, both because Duffy is similar and also the 40-man issue. He'll start in AAA and wait for an injury or suckage.

I also think Marsh is less likely than Mayfield and Rojas, at least to start the year. They're probably looking at his BB/K rate and thinking he could use a bit more seasoning. It is worth remembering that he only has 24 AAA games under his belt. Maybe another focused 30-50 would do him good, and then he can come up once Upton is hurt and/or its clear he sucks.

My guess would be one of two options:

1. Your pitching staff, but they send Ortega to AAA and keep both Mayfield and Rojas.

2. Your pitching staff, but they keep either Mayfield or Rojas.

[Angelsjunky]

3 minutes ago, mmc said:

Personally would much rather they DFA Mayfield than Velazquez

I agree. I think we've seen what Mayfield has to offer, while Velazquez has some untapped potential. In a way he's not unlike an older Luis Rengifo, with a worse bat but better glove.