Will the next several seasons be more challenging than the last few?

[Junkballer]

37 minutes ago, True Grich said:

That is always the big question.

It may be the reason why Arte wasn't able to hire the people higher up on the list and went with a first-timer, albeit up and comer with tutelage by a respected GM

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, True Grich said:

This was also talked about in the interviews. 

The sense I got is that it takes a lot of great minds to put the best possible team on the field, but it is key to have that one guy at the top. And that team is trying to find an edge every single day.

I don't know if Minasian is THE guy, and I'm skeptical he can turn things around before Trout is past his best days. I think there is a good possibility the next few years are painful. I hope I'm wrong.

Arte swung and missed on Dipoto and to some degree on Eppler. Maybe Minasian is a genius. Maybe he's the next Andrew Friedman.

I guess we'll find out. 

 

Eppler did a ton for this org in terms of creating and infrastructure and standardized processes that people mostly don't hear about.  He took what Dipoto had burnt to the ground and actually left with some semblance of a foundation that Minasian has an opportunity to build on.  The problem with Eppler was that the final product didn't turn out well but he made it much easier for the next guy to get there.  

[Hubs]

On 10/16/2021 at 2:08 PM, Dochalo said:

room from what.   And it's probably closer to 25 for the arb and controlled guys.  Which puts us at 140m or so already.  Plus 80m even conservatively.  Which is 220m.  Plus you've got to lock up Ohatni on top of that which adds to all those contracts you think they're gonna do that extend through 2024 or 2025 at least.  And by then we'll have more expensive guys in arb and have zero room to improve the team in the future.  No frickin chance.  

They're at 110 for Ohtani, Trout, Rendon, Upton and Fletcher.

They have two arbitration eligible guys in Mayers and Stassi who will for sure be back. Junior Guerra, Phil Gosselin, and Franklin Barreto are not locks to be back. 

Angels (5)

• Junior Guerra – $1.3MM
• Phil Gosselin – $1.5MM
• Max Stassi – $2.7MM
• Mike Mayers – $2.2MM
• Franklin Barreto – $700K

That's $5M. 

The club control guys are likely: Walsh, Rengifo, Thaiss (maybe), Ward, Adell, Marsh, Sandoval, Suarez, Canning, and then maybe 5 BP guys like Quijada, Warren, Ortega, Herget, C-Rod (if healthy), Selman, etc. That's 14 or so names at 600K. So that's $8-10 Million.

115+10= $125 plus $80 conservatively, and you're at $205. 

If they go lower cost that's fine, but they mostly signed or traded for guys under expiring contracts last season, and had Pujols drop off, plus they need to spend a bit more and the Lux Tax cap will go up, probably significantly in the new CBA. 

The 2023 arbitration class is basically only guys who came up in 2019, which would be Fletcher who is signed, Canning who won't have the service time, Sandoval maybe, and Suarez maybe. Walsh won't be eligible yet. Ohtani will cost quite a bit more. But Upton drops off.

The 2024 team will need to resign Ohtani, and who knows what that will cost. Sandoval, Suarez, Canning, and Walsh will be eligible for arbitration some on their second pass. This is going to be the biggest year salary wise.

If you sign Scherzer or another pitcher to three year deals, they'd drop off here. In time to start paying some of the other younger guys and arms.

 

[Docwaukee]

 

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

They're at 110 for Ohtani, Trout, Rendon, Upton and Fletcher.

They have two arbitration eligible guys in Mayers and Stassi who will for sure be back. Junior Guerra, Phil Gosselin, and Franklin Barreto are not locks to be back. 

Angels (5)

• Junior Guerra – $1.3MM
• Phil Gosselin – $1.5MM
• Max Stassi – $2.7MM
• Mike Mayers – $2.2MM
• Franklin Barreto – $700K

That's $5M. 

The club control guys are likely: Walsh, Rengifo, Thaiss (maybe), Ward, Adell, Marsh, Sandoval, Suarez, Canning, and then maybe 5 BP guys like Quijada, Warren, Ortega, Herget, C-Rod (if healthy), Selman, etc. That's 14 or so names at 600K. So that's $8-10 Million.

115+10= $125 plus $80 conservatively, and you're at $205. 

If they go lower cost that's fine, but they mostly signed or traded for guys under expiring contracts last season, and had Pujols drop off, plus they need to spend a bit more and the Lux Tax cap will go up, probably significantly in the new CBA. 

The 2023 arbitration class is basically only guys who came up in 2019, which would be Fletcher who is signed, Canning who won't have the service time, Sandoval maybe, and Suarez maybe. Walsh won't be eligible yet. Ohtani will cost quite a bit more. But Upton drops off.

The 2024 team will need to resign Ohtani, and who knows what that will cost. Sandoval, Suarez, Canning, and Walsh will be eligible for arbitration some on their second pass. This is going to be the biggest year salary wise.

If you sign Scherzer or another pitcher to three year deals, they'd drop off here. In time to start paying some of the other younger guys and arms.

 

you clearly used the roster resource arb estimates so you are aware of the numbers they're putting out.  So even if they drop from 8.4 mil to 5 mil then they're at 135m for the luxury tax.  Which means it at 215m which is over the threshold which you may claim doesn't matter.  And that isn't considering that your added AAV is probably light.  

But just in general.  Payroll at $205m?  Heh.  good luck.  

[Hubs]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

 

you clearly used the roster resource arb estimates so you are aware of the numbers they're putting out.  So even if they drop from 8.4 mil to 5 mil then they're at 135m for the luxury tax.  Which means it at 215m which is over the threshold which you may claim doesn't matter.  And that isn't considering that your added AAV is probably light.  

But just in general.  Payroll at $205m?  Heh.  good luck.  

MLBTR.

I don't understand your jump from $110-plus the 15 to 135. That's $10M high in terms of Real payroll. I'm not even talking AAV or luxury tax, just real payroll. AAV payroll yes you add the $16M? in benefits and the minor league salaries for non active 40 man guys, maybe $2.5M.

But then you use the AAV of contracts, which for Trout is 35.5, Rendon is 35, Upton is 21, Fletcher is 5 and Ohtani is 4. So the 110 dish drops to 100.7. Add the $16M extra and the $2.5 for minor leaguers and you're at 120, plus the $15 M for club control and arbitration and then you get to 135. Then I added 80, and it was a bit higher as the AAV's gonna be higher for most of the six FA contracts I say add up to 80 (Iglesias, Semien/Story, Scherzer, and Cobb/Gray/FA starter, and two FA Relievers), so even if you added 90, they'd be at 225 AAV.

That exceeds the Threshold for 2021, for 2022 there is no set luxury tax. And yes that's a jump up from the $206 AAV payroll they were at this year, but not a huge one. And they could try to go a little cheaper and get to 215. 

Dodgers have a 260M payroll but yes also a deeper farm. That's the competition.

 

 

 

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, Hubs said:

MLBTR.

I don't understand your jump from $110-plus the 15 to 135. That's $10M high in terms of Real payroll. I'm not even talking AAV or luxury tax, just real payroll. AAV payroll yes you add the $16M? in benefits and the minor league salaries for non active 40 man guys, maybe $2.5M.

But then you use the AAV of contracts, which for Trout is 35.5, Rendon is 35, Upton is 21, Fletcher is 5 and Ohtani is 4. So the 110 dish drops to 100.7. Add the $16M extra and the $2.5 for minor leaguers and you're at 120, plus the $15 M for club control and arbitration and then you get to 135. Then I added 80, and it was a bit higher as the AAV's gonna be higher for most of the six FA contracts I say add up to 80 (Iglesias, Semien/Story, Scherzer, and Cobb/Gray/FA starter, and two FA Relievers), so even if you added 90, they'd be at 225 AAV.

That exceeds the Threshold for 2021, for 2022 there is no set luxury tax. And yes that's a jump up from the $206 AAV payroll they were at this year, but not a huge one. And they could try to go a little cheaper and get to 215. 

Dodgers have a 260M payroll but yes also a deeper farm. That's the competition.

 

 

 

What?  I said relative to the tax.  

And the dogs are the benchmark?  With 180m more in revenue?  

Again.  Good luck.  

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

What?  I said relative to the tax.  

And the dogs are the benchmark?  With 180m more in revenue?  

Again.  Good luck.  

We are obviously talking about two different payrolls, I was always talking about actual payroll, that they use for payroll stats. A few sites show the Luxury tax number or both, but those numbers are always different. Saying that they're at 135 or 140 and can spend like 40 to get to last year's 180, is using numbers from both sides.

They are at 110 in contracts, 125 with arbitration and club control, and that's 55 away from 180. 

Last year's luxury tax payroll was just a bit north of 205 or, about 4.5 million below the threshold.

I'm expecting the luxury tax threshold to go up by quite a bit in the next CBA, and a salary floor, as well, but perhaps it will be a harder cap. The teams surely don't want to have two different payroll systems, one for the wealthy teams, which the Angels definitely are one of, and one for the less wealthy teams. I also expect trading of draft picks to be allowed, some sort of concession for some players to get to arbitration or free agency faster, and also other changes like the elimination of extra draft picks for smaller market teams.

And yes, the Dodgers have been in the NLCS 4 or 5 years and have been in the playoffs for seemingly the last decade plus. They have changed GM's and managers and still are successful. They share the market with the Angels, and so they are definitely the competition.

And I know you may be right and they'll just piece together a lineup again, but I choose to be optimistic and to see the Astros win again, even while they cheat, and the Dodgers continue to be successful, in their backyards has hopefully got to infuriate Arte into spending for pitching and a SS.

 

 

 

[Torridd]

On 10/16/2021 at 1:30 PM, Angel Oracle said:

Re-sign Iglesias and Cobb, sign Stroman and a late innings guy, and acquire #2 catcher.

That should amount to around $45 million extra, within the budget.

Let Rengifo, Mayfield, and Brendon Davis battle for the SS spot.

Move CRod back to pen for now, and move Bachman to the pen for now.

Ohtani, Stroman, Sandoval, Cobb, Suarez, and Barria/Detmers/Junk

Iglesias, FA acquisition, CRod, Mayers, Warren, Quijada, and two from Tyler/Marte/Ortega/etc. with Bachman replacing one of those when ready

Finally, have normal team health for a change, instead of having one of the biggest cumulative IL days in MLB year in and year out it seems.

Will CRod be healthy next year?

[Docwaukee]

18 hours ago, Hubs said:

We are obviously talking about two different payrolls, I was always talking about actual payroll, that they use for payroll stats. A few sites show the Luxury tax number or both, but those numbers are always different. Saying that they're at 135 or 140 and can spend like 40 to get to last year's 180, is using numbers from both sides.

They are at 110 in contracts, 125 with arbitration and club control, and that's 55 away from 180. 

Last year's luxury tax payroll was just a bit north of 205 or, about 4.5 million below the threshold.

I'm expecting the luxury tax threshold to go up by quite a bit in the next CBA, and a salary floor, as well, but perhaps it will be a harder cap. The teams surely don't want to have two different payroll systems, one for the wealthy teams, which the Angels definitely are one of, and one for the less wealthy teams. I also expect trading of draft picks to be allowed, some sort of concession for some players to get to arbitration or free agency faster, and also other changes like the elimination of extra draft picks for smaller market teams.

And yes, the Dodgers have been in the NLCS 4 or 5 years and have been in the playoffs for seemingly the last decade plus. They have changed GM's and managers and still are successful. They share the market with the Angels, and so they are definitely the competition.

And I know you may be right and they'll just piece together a lineup again, but I choose to be optimistic and to see the Astros win again, even while they cheat, and the Dodgers continue to be successful, in their backyards has hopefully got to infuriate Arte into spending for pitching and a SS.

 

 

 

I had your optimism about payroll for a few years and maybe one of these seasons we'll see a bump.  But I kinda doubt it.  I think he'll keep it around 185ish.  Still gives them a decent chunk to spend but it's not just about this year.  Making 5yr plus commitment to another player creates long term issues.  And while the dogs are our local comp, they're in a different stratosphere in terms of what they can and are willing to do.  The Astros and Dogs have been good for a long time.  And that's not gonna change any time soon.  There have been plenty of opportunities for Arte to get mad and want to compete with those teams by opening up payroll but he's never done it and I suspect he won't again.  

Personally, I'd love to see it because I think it's the best path to a better team in the short and long term if he plays it right.  You can expand payroll without making long term commitments.  That's a key component.  I just don't think it will happen.  

[Hubs]

15 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I had your optimism about payroll for a few years and maybe one of these seasons we'll see a bump.  But I kinda doubt it.  I think he'll keep it around 185ish.  Still gives them a decent chunk to spend but it's not just about this year.  Making 5yr plus commitment to another player creates long term issues.  And while the dogs are our local comp, they're in a different stratosphere in terms of what they can and are willing to do.  The Astros and Dogs have been good for a long time.  And that's not gonna change any time soon.  There have been plenty of opportunities for Arte to get mad and want to compete with those teams by opening up payroll but he's never done it and I suspect he won't again.  

Personally, I'd love to see it because I think it's the best path to a better team in the short and long term if he plays it right.  You can expand payroll without making long term commitments.  That's a key component.  I just don't think it will happen.  

What they can and are willing to do is the key point. I think a second consecutive World Series, especially if Pujols gets a key hit for the Dodgers will make Arte fire up his competitive fire and we'll see a big time signing or two.

I'm basically hoping for the 2003-2004 offseason, with four nice signings. We signed a top pitcher (Colon) and a top hitter (Vlad) and an under the radar hitter (Guillen) and pitcher (Escobar). I do feel like the lineup is very solid if healthy, but I didn't think we needed two OF that season either, with Erstad in CF and Salmon and Anderson in the corner OF. They needed a DH having moved on from Fullmer, and Spiezio had signed with the Mariners, so they needed a 1B man as well. I don't think the plan was to sign Vlad, but they took the chance when it was available. And it really worked out. 

For 2022, I don't think they need two hitters, but I could see them signing one. And they need two pitchers. Going for an under the radar guy at around half of what the top guy will cost is reasonable. I'd like to see Scherzer or Stroman as the top guy, depending on contract length. If Scherzer will sign for three seasons, I'd do it, even though he will turn 41 during the last year of that stretch. Stroman is significantly younger and could be the highest paid pitcher in terms of contract dollars this off season. I'd shoot for a contract for either around $30M, these guys aren't Gerritt Cole or have weird contract requests like Trevor Bauer. I was heavily pro Bauer during last offseason, but I am sure he'd rather have been shot in the nuts with a paintball gun than miss out on a few hundred million dollars he'd have been guaranteed if he'd signed long term, but I am super glad we didn't sign him with the rape allegations, leading to his suspension.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[HanfordGuy]

On 10/18/2021 at 6:37 AM, True Grich said:

The sense I got is that it takes a lot of great minds to put the best possible team on the field, but it is key to have that one guy at the top.

[Angel Oracle]

4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I had your optimism about payroll for a few years and maybe one of these seasons we'll see a bump.  But I kinda doubt it.  I think he'll keep it around 185ish.  Still gives them a decent chunk to spend but it's not just about this year.  Making 5yr plus commitment to another player creates long term issues.  And while the dogs are our local comp, they're in a different stratosphere in terms of what they can and are willing to do.  The Astros and Dogs have been good for a long time.  And that's not gonna change any time soon.  There have been plenty of opportunities for Arte to get mad and want to compete with those teams by opening up payroll but he's never done it and I suspect he won't again.  

Personally, I'd love to see it because I think it's the best path to a better team in the short and long term if he plays it right.  You can expand payroll without making long term commitments.  That's a key component.  I just don't think it will happen.  

Arte Moreno needs to grow a set when it comes to pitching payroll.

They aren’t THAT far away (health permitting) from contending for at least a WC game spot.

Agree that it’s needs to be a 3 years max contract for whichever FA pitcher(s) they bring in.

Edited October 19, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Revad]

I know this is repetitive but Artie needs to look at revenue generated by Ohtani and put him on a separate budget so enough $ can be spent on FA.  That or trade away the farm.