Will the next several seasons be more challenging than the last few?

[notherhalo]

SEA, coming off 90 wins, with 22m in payroll, top 2 farm

OAK, always surprisingly good, getting a new stadium and $$$ to spend from it

HOU, seems they will be in the WS

TEX, full of draft picks, ready to open up

LAA, more needs than $$ to fill, farm is already here, core on the decline

 

Is this inaccurate?  It feels like the chances of hitting .500 again are going to be tough for a while

[mmc]

Well they were 4 wins away from being .500 last year, so if you assume their upcoming external improvements + internal improvements from the young SP + a healthy Trout and Rendon wins them at least an extra four games which I do then they aren’t far from being .500 at all

[BTH]

3 hours ago, notherhalo said:

It feels like the chances of hitting .500 again are going to be tough for a while

Hitting .500 isn't really a benchmark of great importance. What's important is the chances of making the playoffs.

Texas still seems a few years away and Oakland's probably gonna rebuild/retool by the start of the '23 season at the latest.

Houston is the main threat, and Seattle's somewhat of a threat. They were extremely lucky this year, so you have to factor in some regression there before you add any talent they may get.

[T.G.]

Well, the Red Sox were 24-36 last season and turned it around.  The Brewers, Giants and Astros were 29-31 in 2020. 

The really interesting team is the Giants... who were also 77-85 in 2019 and 73-89 in 2018.  How did they do it? Obviously, it can be done...

[UndertheHalo]

2022 is a new year and the Angels have a shot, of course they do.  They’re in much better shape than they were 5 years ago.  That said, there’s not really a lot of reason to have much faith in the organization because it hardly ever does anything right or well.  Sorry, that’s what’s we’ve seen for a long time.  Hopefully the management staff in the front office and on the field does a better job pressing the right buttons.  Until they do it - and they haven’t -  it’s an open question.  They’ve got a shot to finally turn it around tho.  No need to pretend that they don’t. 

[Justin]

24 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

there’s not really a lot of reason to have much faith in the organization

You took the words right out of my mouth. Unable to develop pitching and unwilling to overpay for it or acquire it by tanking, I am not sure where that leaves us other than saying "Well, I hope this is the year we finally have good luck."

That being said, I remember feeling disgusted with the organization 20 years ago this month and saying "Damn, maybe this young group is never going to get it together."

It's baseball, you never know what might happen.

[Angelsjunky]

15 minutes ago, Justin said:

It's baseball, you never know what might happen.

~ The San Diego Padres organization and fan-base

[HanfordGuy]

1 hour ago, True Grich said:

Obviously, it can be done...

“BUT IT CAN BE DONE!!!

[Hubs]

4 hours ago, notherhalo said:

SEA, coming off 90 wins, with 22m in payroll, top 2 farm

OAK, always surprisingly good, getting a new stadium and $$$ to spend from it

HOU, seems they will be in the WS

TEX, full of draft picks, ready to open up

LAA, more needs than $$ to fill, farm is already here, core on the decline

 

Is this inaccurate?  It feels like the chances of hitting .500 again are going to be tough for a while

I'm an optimist, don't see the point of sports fandom unless you are optimistic always, but I still feel that this is highly negative.

SEA, Yes -- they are good. Won 90 games, went 11-8 against the Halos. Have some pitching questions, but definitely have improved. We'll see if DiPoto and Servais can lead the team to the division.

OAK -- I think they have one of the largest arbitration classes, and one of the largest free agent class of any major league team. They struggled in the second half. They will have a very different roster in 2022 and 2023. (11 Free Agents and 11 arbitration eligibles, not the most in either case, but with the A's history on both fronts, expect to face a very different club than the one who went 15-4 against this years Angels.

HOU -- They cheat, they've been cheating, and they will get caught again. Tepera made allegations last week hat got national attention, but there have been stories all year long that they continued to cheat into the 2019 playoffs and maybe resumed this year too. https://www.texasmonthly.com/arts-entertainment/astros-cheating-book/ Why stop cheating when the players weren't penalized and they have been to 5 straight ALCS and two, maybe three World Series? Even if they aren't caught again, however, or punished, Correa, Verlander, and Grienke are all free agents.

LAA -- As I've stated in other posts, the Angels have 70M to reach last years total salary, have a very small arbitration class, and only one key free agent in Iglesias. They pushed their farm ahead a lot last season, and the only thing keeping the Angels back from being in the hunt for the division was not pitching in 2021, it was health, both of the pitching staff and of Trout, Rendon, Upton. Ohtani took a huge step forward in 2021, and is the likely MVP. In 2022, it's not out of the question to assume the Angels five best players to have 30+ WAR. Trout if healthy is a lock for 8-9, and so is Ohtani. They need to sign a starter, hopefully that guy gives you 5 WAR. They need to sign a SS--Semien (7) or Story (4) should give you 4-5 WAR and Rendon should give you 5-6 if healthy, possibly even 7. They had 22.4 WAR total last season.

I like

DH Ohtani

SS Semien or Story or Seager

OF Trout

3B Rendon

1B Walsh

OF Adell/Upton

OF Marsh/Ward

C Stassi/Thaiss/Bemboom

2B Fletcher

 

with a Rotation of

 

Scherzer or Stroman or Other TOR FA Starter

Ohtani

Sandoval

Gray or Cobb or Other #3 FA Starter

Suarez

Detmers/Barria/Canning/C-Rod/Bachman/Naughton/Junk

 

with a pen of

Iglesias

FA

Mayers

Warren

Cishek

Ortega

Quijada

Etc.

 

 

 

 

 

[greginpsca]

7 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I'm an optimist, don't see the point of sports fandom unless you are optimistic always, but I still feel that this is highly negative.

SEA, Yes -- they are good. Won 90 games, went 11-8 against the Halos. Have some pitching questions, but definitely have improved. We'll see if DiPoto and Servais can lead the team to the division.

OAK -- I think they have one of the largest arbitration classes, and one of the largest free agent class of any major league team. They struggled in the second half. They will have a very different roster in 2022 and 2023. (11 Free Agents and 11 arbitration eligibles, not the most in either case, but with the A's history on both fronts, expect to face a very different club than the one who went 15-4 against this years Angels.

HOU -- They cheat, they've been cheating, and they will get caught again. Tepera made allegations last week hat got national attention, but there have been stories all year long that they continued to cheat into the 2019 playoffs and maybe resumed this year too. https://www.texasmonthly.com/arts-entertainment/astros-cheating-book/ Why stop cheating when the players weren't penalized and they have been to 5 straight ALCS and two, maybe three World Series? Even if they aren't caught again, however, or punished, Correa, Verlander, and Grienke are all free agents.

LAA -- As I've stated in other posts, the Angels have 70M to reach last years total salary, have a very small arbitration class, and only one key free agent in Iglesias. They pushed their farm ahead a lot last season, and the only thing keeping the Angels back from being in the hunt for the division was not pitching in 2021, it was health, both of the pitching staff and of Trout, Rendon, Upton. Ohtani took a huge step forward in 2021, and is the likely MVP. In 2022, it's not out of the question to assume the Angels five best players to have 30+ WAR. Trout if healthy is a lock for 8-9, and so is Ohtani. They need to sign a starter, hopefully that guy gives you 5 WAR. They need to sign a SS--Semien (7) or Story (4) should give you 4-5 WAR and Rendon should give you 5-6 if healthy, possibly even 7. They had 22.4 WAR total last season.

I like

DH Ohtani

SS Semien or Story or Seager

OF Trout

3B Rendon

1B Walsh

OF Adell/Upton

OF Marsh/Ward

C Stassi/Thaiss/Bemboom

2B Fletcher

 

with a Rotation of

 

Scherzer or Stroman or Other TOR FA Starter

Ohtani

Sandoval

Gray or Cobb or Other #3 FA Starter

Suarez

Detmers/Barria/Canning/C-Rod/Bachman/Naughton/Junk

 

with a pen of

Iglesias

FA

Mayers

Warren

Cishek

Ortega

Quijada

Etc.

 

 

 

 

 

Benboom is in the Dodger org.

[Hubs]

Just now, greginpsca said:

Benboom is in the Dodger org.

He'll likely be a minor league free agent, didn't get into a game with the Dodgers, and I just mean someone like him. Journeyman catchers are easy to find.

[angelsnationtalk]

Challenging? Who knows...

But they will become more heartbreaking if there is no playoff berth for the Angels. They would have officially wasted Trout and Ohtani's prime years if they don't. 

Therefore, it's not more challenging, but more crucial than ever. 

[ettin]

5 hours ago, notherhalo said:

SEA, coming off 90 wins, with 22m in payroll, top 2 farm

OAK, always surprisingly good, getting a new stadium and $$$ to spend from it

HOU, seems they will be in the WS

TEX, full of draft picks, ready to open up

LAA, more needs than $$ to fill, farm is already here, core on the decline

 

Is this inaccurate?  It feels like the chances of hitting .500 again are going to be tough for a while

You are looking at this from the wrong angle, I think.

The thing you should be looking at is whether or not the odds for the Angels to get to the postseason are reasonable, entering the season. Yes the other teams are trying to improve and could potentially win the Division, but parity creates an environment where winning 85 games and the Division becomes a possibility, versus, say, Houston winning 93 games with the Angels being the only other good team in the Division, winning 90 games and not making it to a Wild Card spot or the playoffs.

Ultimately the Angels have a good core and they have opportunities to improve the 2022 team and be competitive, so we should ignore ".500" and focus on the probability and win curves to best position the team for success. Parity will focus the team to win, knowing that one particular team is not overly dominant in comparison to others. I think competitiveness and creating an edge on this team, knowing they face solid competition is what the Halos actually need right now, as well.

Maybe I'm wrong.

[greginpsca]

2001 Angels won 75 games.  2002 Angels won the wild card on the way to winning the World Series. They had a mediocre starting pitching staff, but had a lockdown bullpen. The 2002  and the 2022 teams both had a pretty good nucleus of position players. So yeah, one year can make a difference.

[Torridd]

6 hours ago, notherhalo said:

SEA, coming off 90 wins, with 22m in payroll, top 2 farm

OAK, always surprisingly good, getting a new stadium and $$$ to spend from it

HOU, seems they will be in the WS

TEX, full of draft picks, ready to open up

LAA, more needs than $$ to fill, farm is already here, core on the decline

 

Is this inaccurate?  It feels like the chances of hitting .500 again are going to be tough for a while

No, I don't think so. Coupled with the Ohtani/Trout/Rendon triumvirate, which aren't old, we should be pretty good for years to come as long as we're healthy. 

[Torridd]

1 hour ago, HanfordGuy said:

“BUT IT CAN BE DONE!!!

Why they ever remade this, I have no idea. It may be the worst remake in history when you talk about the disparity from the original.

[tdawg87]

If the Mariners come anywhere near 90 wins next year I'll punt a baby. They got through this year on luck and BS. 

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

If the Mariners come anywhere near 90 wins next year I'll punt a baby. They got through this year on luck and BS. 

I think they won't improve much and will likely regress. They were surprisingly good the second Half and a lot was luck, but they have some really good players, and Safeco is awesome viewing experience. I went to the final game where we knocked them out of the playoffs -- the fans were excited and engaged. Seeing Kyle Seager's farewell was cool too. They also took down the obnoxious 116 win flag or moved it. It used to be in CF and stood out garishly, but not anymore. The concessions were a mess though. I don't think we realize at Anaheim Stadium how good we've got it with concessions and walkways and such. Petco was good this year too.

Also, the Angels scrubs and Ohtani dominated that lineup in a must-win game, so they need pitching and pitching and more pitching. I can't see them involved in the SS market, but I can see them try to add multiple pitchers and maybe a veteran hitter or three. They have only $22M committed next season.

They do have several arbitration guys and that will increase their payroll somewhat, as Haniger, Crawford, and others are arbitration eligible.

They could use another 3B, it didn't look as if they will bring Seager back. Ty France may move across the diamond, I see he's been at 3B. But Seager despite his low average was a productive batter, hitting 35 HR and 29 2B. So that will have to get fixed. I could see them adding here, and also at 2B and DH. 

So they're a team to watch. I won't punt a baby if they win 90, but if they only win 75 next year I wouldn't be surprised.

 

 

[wopphil]

I won’t be betting against the Astros again. I thought they would take a step back this year, but they are just as good as always. Gonna be hard for the Angels to improve enough to beat them. 

[Docwaukee]

8 hours ago, Hubs said:

I'm an optimist, don't see the point of sports fandom unless you are optimistic always, but I still feel that this is highly negative.

SEA, Yes -- they are good. Won 90 games, went 11-8 against the Halos. Have some pitching questions, but definitely have improved. We'll see if DiPoto and Servais can lead the team to the division.

OAK -- I think they have one of the largest arbitration classes, and one of the largest free agent class of any major league team. They struggled in the second half. They will have a very different roster in 2022 and 2023. (11 Free Agents and 11 arbitration eligibles, not the most in either case, but with the A's history on both fronts, expect to face a very different club than the one who went 15-4 against this years Angels.

HOU -- They cheat, they've been cheating, and they will get caught again. Tepera made allegations last week hat got national attention, but there have been stories all year long that they continued to cheat into the 2019 playoffs and maybe resumed this year too. https://www.texasmonthly.com/arts-entertainment/astros-cheating-book/ Why stop cheating when the players weren't penalized and they have been to 5 straight ALCS and two, maybe three World Series? Even if they aren't caught again, however, or punished, Correa, Verlander, and Grienke are all free agents.

LAA -- As I've stated in other posts, the Angels have 70M to reach last years total salary, have a very small arbitration class, and only one key free agent in Iglesias. They pushed their farm ahead a lot last season, and the only thing keeping the Angels back from being in the hunt for the division was not pitching in 2021, it was health, both of the pitching staff and of Trout, Rendon, Upton. Ohtani took a huge step forward in 2021, and is the likely MVP. In 2022, it's not out of the question to assume the Angels five best players to have 30+ WAR. Trout if healthy is a lock for 8-9, and so is Ohtani. They need to sign a starter, hopefully that guy gives you 5 WAR. They need to sign a SS--Semien (7) or Story (4) should give you 4-5 WAR and Rendon should give you 5-6 if healthy, possibly even 7. They had 22.4 WAR total last season.

I like

DH Ohtani

SS Semien or Story or Seager

OF Trout

3B Rendon

1B Walsh

OF Adell/Upton

OF Marsh/Ward

C Stassi/Thaiss/Bemboom

2B Fletcher

 

with a Rotation of

 

Scherzer or Stroman or Other TOR FA Starter

Ohtani

Sandoval

Gray or Cobb or Other #3 FA Starter

Suarez

Detmers/Barria/Canning/C-Rod/Bachman/Naughton/Junk

 

with a pen of

Iglesias

FA

Mayers

Warren

Cishek

Ortega

Quijada

Etc.

 

 

 

 

 

you'd be adding at least 80 if not 90m in payroll.  

[Revad]

8 hours ago, HanfordGuy said:

“BUT IT CAN BE DONE!!!

It’s harder than it looks though.

[ScottT]

Healthy Trout and Rendon gets the team fairly close.

Internal improvements are not a pipe dream. Adell, Marsh, Sandoval, Rodriguez, Detmers 

A cheap free agent signing that works out.... is overdue.

I like the Angels 2022 chances better than I liked the Giants chances a year ago...  and the Angels chances 20 years ago.  Quite a bit more, actually.

Edited October 16, 2021 by ScottT

[Docwaukee]

Oakland - Losing a couple key offensive contributors.  Their farm system isn't very good and they don't really have a ton of young talent on their roster.  There could be a sell off coming so they can be good again just in time for their new stadium to open.   But they'll probably find a couple of randoms to decently replace their key free agents anyway.  

Seattle - they're improving.  I think they're gonna be very active this off season in trying to improve their offense.   And I could easily see them bringing on one of the top FA pitchers.  I could also see Dipoto trading Crawford for a nice player and then signing one of the top FA SS.   

Texas - a ways away from doing anything.  

Houston - losing Greinke, Verlander.  Which frankly, only helps them free up payroll.  Correa will be a pretty substantial loss.  I don't see them throwing the pile of money at him it's gonna take.    Here's something fun to think about.  They're coming off a 95 win season and they'll likely be looking for the same things the halos will.   A SS, some SP, and bullpen help.  Probably not in exactly the same ways, but we're gonna be competing with them to some degree.  And if we are ever going to learn anything from these ahole cheaters, it's to let your top prospects mature.  Tucker, Alvarez, McCullers, Garcia, Valdez, Urquidy, Javier.  Basically, 4 of their starters (and maybe a 5th if they move Javier back into a starting role) are age 24-27.  They could vie for the division for the next 5-6 years.  Frack!

Angels -  a very good core offense and a solid core of young starters who have all been called into action way before they should have.  They have two of the best players in baseball.  They have a couple of potential star level or even super star OFers.  If they were patient, they're probably a couple years away before guys like Detmers, Sandoval, Rodriguez and maybe Bachman, Suarez and Canning really come into their own.  Around when they hit that 26-27ish range.  By that time a bunch of the hard work they've been doing in latin america will start to pay off.  And we'll start to see the last drafts bullpen hoard make it's way up.  At that point, Trout would be 31, Rendon 33, and Ohtani 28.  

Until then I just hope they stay conservative and don't make any stupid trades monster multi year mega contracts.    I'm not saying they should sit on their hands in the meantime and not spend money.  In fact, the opposite.  They are at a point where making some key FA acquisitions on short terms could really help the team and they might have a couple of seasons where things go right.  Get the best pitcher you can on a 1-2 year deal (like a Scherzer) and overpay him.  And for the love of everything decent and holy, get some shit right on some of these 1yr guys like a Marcus Semian or Robbie Ray, or Gausman from a year ago.  

[Stradling]

One other thing to consider with Houston is possibly losing McCullers.  Forearm tightness is oftentimes a precursor to TJ surgery. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

I don’t think the A’s are getting a new stadium in the next couple years. 
 

The Mariners also had a negative run differential, so what they did is not repeatable.