Hypothetical buying scenario

[Angelsjunky]

I figure that Trout's return is as good as any point to mark for deciding if the Angels are buying or selling (if you're Minasian). If he really plays on July 17, that means the Angels only have 9 games before Trout's return. 

So let's say they're 2 or 3 games above .500 with Trout back. Minasian won't sell. But will he buy? Who knows, but I think he'll look at options. If you're Minasian, what are you looking for and who are you willing to trade?

I think the main targets would be, with some candidates:

- A good starter - German Marquez, Michael Fulmer, Matthew Boyd, Kyle Gibson, Drew Smyly

- One or two relievers - Richard Rodriguez, Kendall Graveman, Tanner Scott

I'd like to see Minasian acquire players that could help next year and beyond, so Marquez and Fulmer would be idea as both are relatively young. But both would cost significant prospects. Rodriguez is a nice target, as well.

 

[Erstad Grit]

I'd take a shot in Gallen and hope he shakes the rust off. 

Marquez and Rodriguez will probably cost a ton.

Scherzer wants an extension, I'd trade for him if his expectations are something like 2/50 or 3/60

[Docwaukee]

It's fun that they've won some close games of late.  But they're 6.5 gb of the 2nd wild card.  Still time to sell.  I'd be ok with the combo method of selling and maybe taking an opportunity to get an available pitcher but mostly I'd like to see them use their assets to rebuild the pen for next year.  And the expiring assets.  Not minor league guys.  

[Blarg]

Before tonight's game the Angels were third in OPS in the American League. That's considering Rendon, Trout and Upton missed considerable playing time. They lost Dexter Fowler early on and have been using band aids for three outfield positions. Rengifo, Wong, Schebler, Jay, and Rojas, thats a long list of guys that should not have covered those positions. 

This offense hasn't even peaked and yet the pitching staff has cratered in a response to all the adversity. Yes, defensive metrics, blah, blah, blah, but you can't ignore the home runs, the excessive walks, the forty pitch innings and starters only producing three miserable innings of work. 

To reach the playoffs the Angels require two average starters. Just average, not top of the rotation studs. Just two guys that can get to the 6th inning or later and have the game in reach. 

We don't even need relievers. Most of the relief problems come from rolling dice with five guys a night to take over for a crap the bed start. The less you go to the pen the better the odds are is the guy you pick is the right guy for that role and not just the only guy that hasn't already pitched four days in a row. 

Get two good pitchers. They don't have to be great, just good enough to push two crappy pitchers out if the rotation and let the offense do the rest. 

[Stradling]

I honestly think even if we get two average starters Maddon is going to pull them after five or right after getting through the line up a second time.  If you want a starter to go deeper you need a top of the rotation guy or a large lead (5 plus runs).  

[Docwaukee]

7 hours ago, Blarg said:

Before tonight's game the Angels were third in OPS in the American League. That's considering Rendon, Trout and Upton missed considerable playing time. They lost Dexter Fowler early on and have been using band aids for three outfield positions. Rengifo, Wong, Schebler, Jay, and Rojas, thats a long list of guys that should not have covered those positions. 

This offense hasn't even peaked and yet the pitching staff has cratered in a response to all the adversity. Yes, defensive metrics, blah, blah, blah, but you can't ignore the home runs, the excessive walks, the forty pitch innings and starters only producing three miserable innings of work. 

To reach the playoffs the Angels require two average starters. Just average, not top of the rotation studs. Just two guys that can get to the 6th inning or later and have the game in reach. 

We don't even need relievers. Most of the relief problems come from rolling dice with five guys a night to take over for a crap the bed start. The less you go to the pen the better the odds are is the guy you pick is the right guy for that role and not just the only guy that hasn't already pitched four days in a row. 

Get two good pitchers. They don't have to be great, just good enough to push two crappy pitchers out if the rotation and let the offense do the rest. 

I agree about the offense.  

But you can't just blah blah blah your way past what is at best one of the 5 worst defenses in baseball.  There's some chicken/egg there but HR's, excessive walks and forty pitch innings happen because your defense sucks.  It's huge and can't be glossed over.  

I personally have more faith in having 3 or 4 of our starters being average or above for the rest of the year.  As long as Joe doesn't pull them in the 5th after 75 pitches.  

In the pen, we have a good closer and that's it.  The results have been better of late but over the remainder of the season I have no confidence they'll be able to continue their current run of being so effective.  Yes, a big chunk of that has to do with being over worked but I just don't think they're very talented.  I'll bet on a rotation of Ohtani, Sandoval, Heaney, Cobb, Suarez and Canning and even Bundy and Quintana as depth way before Iglesias and pray.  Sorry, but if Cishek, Mayers, Claudio, Watson, Slegers and Guerra are your next options after your top guy?  That's just russian roulette.  

Now, if if if, Quintana and Bundy can provide some stability like they have recently, I can sorta squint and see a little somethin' somethin'.  I think I might sorta have a bit of ok maybe in me for that but I'm gonna need a little time and results before I'd consider the pen a strength over the starters.  

[Docwaukee]

8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I figure that Trout's return is as good as any point to mark for deciding if the Angels are buying or selling (if you're Minasian). If he really plays on July 17, that means the Angels only have 9 games before Trout's return. 

So let's say they're 2 or 3 games above .500 with Trout back. Minasian won't sell. But will he buy? Who knows, but I think he'll look at options. If you're Minasian, what are you looking for and who are you willing to trade?

I think the main targets would be, with some candidates:

- A good starter - German Marquez, Michael Fulmer, Matthew Boyd, Kyle Gibson, Drew Smyly

- One or two relievers - Richard Rodriguez, Kendall Graveman, Tanner Scott

I'd like to see Minasian acquire players that could help next year and beyond, so Marquez and Fulmer would be idea as both are relatively young. But both would cost significant prospects. Rodriguez is a nice target, as well.

 

you know Fulmer is working out of the pen and pretty much has been all year.  And he's only got 1yr of control left.  And he's currently on the IL for a right shoulder strain.  And his era is above 4 out of the pen.  He probably won't even get arb from Det or whoever they trade him too. 

Gibson we should have signed (assuming we had the chance) last year.  He's been great.  Some smoke.  A few mirrors.  Also one year left.  

Drew Smyly?  For real?  and he's a rental.  And making 11m.  and has an FIP of 5.42.  He's Quintana with way better luck.  

I love Marquez.  Have been professing such from the roof tops for over a year now.  Get him out of COL and I think he gets even better.  Like Cy Young better.  But he's the Rox meal ticket.  The trade that's gonna pull them out of their rebuild at some point.  They're gonna want Chris Sale return (which ended up not being that great actually).  Would I do Canning, Adell and Thaiss with maybe another throw in?  You bet.   But they're gonna want one of Detmers or Rodriguez as well.  No thank you sir.  Or Sandoval.  I'd insist on one of those guys if I were them.  That makes me pucker.  

 

 

[wopphil]

Buy. F-it. There are only so many years that Trout and Ohtani will be in their primes. Get at least one good starter and two relief arms. This team can win at a .600+ clip with merely average pitching. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

9 hours ago, Blarg said:

To reach the playoffs the Angels require two average starters. Just average, not top of the rotation studs. Just two guys that can get to the 6th inning or later and have the game in reach. 

It’s worth noting this is exactly what they had figured they were getting in Harvey, Cahill, Teheran, Bundy, Quintana and Cobb. 
 

They didn’t really expect any of them to be great. They just expected them not to be awful. 

[Jason]

4 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

It’s worth noting this is exactly what they had figured they were getting in Harvey, Cahill, Teheran, Bundy, Quintana and Cobb. 
 

They didn’t really expect any of them to be great. They just expected them not to be awful. 

Sadly this theme will continue until they start drafting and developing the pitching talent they need. Hopefully we this change with guys like Detmers, Sandoval, C-Rod and Suarez. 

[DMVol]

14 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

It’s worth noting this is exactly what they had figured they were getting in Harvey, Cahill, Teheran, Bundy, Quintana and Cobb. 
 

They didn’t really expect any of them to be great. They just expected them not to be awful. 

Cobb hasn't been awful....

[totdprods]

Norris and Boyd were both Blue Jays prospects in Minasian’s time there. I see both being good fits here and shouldn’t be exorbitantly expensive.

Based off my research on what Toronto and Atlanta did when Perry was there, I’m expecting a blend of buying and selling - there was a lot of change of scenery type moves made. 

Personally, I’d be seeing how far Adell, probably one of Canning/CRod, and maybe Jackson would go in regards to Berrios, Castillo, Marquez + Story, Alcantara, Gallen…you could improve the MLB team in a big way now and later without really hurting it. 

[Blarg]

31 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

It’s worth noting this is exactly what they had figured they were getting in Harvey, Cahill, Teheran, Bundy, Quintana and Cobb. 
 

They didn’t really expect any of them to be great. They just expected them not to be awful. 

I'm not so sure that is what you expect from the bottom of the salary tier pitchers. I feel like the last couple years they were hoping reclaimation projects would work out. 

Those guys were all closer to high risk choices. When I say good pitchers I meant closer to 2nd tier level. I would not put any of the last few years of pitching aquisitions on that level. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

16 minutes ago, Blarg said:

meant closer to 2nd tier

Like who do you define as 2nd tier?

And there are a lot of guys who sign for $2-5M or minor league deals. That’s the bottom. 
 

[Angelsjunky]

18 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I'm not so sure that is what you expect from the bottom of the salary tier pitchers. I feel like the last couple years they were hoping reclaimation projects would work out. 

Those guys were all closer to high risk choices. When I say good pitchers I meant closer to 2nd tier level. I would not put any of the last few years of pitching aquisitions on that level. 

Yeah, I think it was trying to be clever: "Let's get a few guys somewhat under the radar, and maybe one of them turns out to be better than expected and we look like geniouses."

[BritAngel]

44 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Norris and Boyd were both Blue Jays prospects in Minasian’s time there. I see both being good fits here and shouldn’t be exorbitantly expensive.

Based off my research on what Toronto and Atlanta did when Perry was there, I’m expecting a blend of buying and selling - there was a lot of change of scenery type moves made. 

Personally, I’d be seeing how far Adell, probably one of Canning/CRod, and maybe Jackson would go in regards to Berrios, Castillo, Marquez + Story, Alcantara, Gallen…you could improve the MLB team in a big way now and later without really hurting it. 

Marquez + story for adell,canning,thaiss + barria ?

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, BritAngel said:

Marquez + story for adell,canning,thaiss + barria ?

Feel like they’d want one more prospect instead of Thaiss and/or Barria, but that could be close, especially if they want MLB ready help. They should probably do more of a long-term return though and tear down, but that doesn’t mean they will.

[Second Base]

The Angels may not need to buy starting pitching. Even if they aren't sellers anymore, they're far enough back that it wouldn't make them hard buyers either, the type that would forfeit key prospects. So they'd likely find themselves in a soft buy situation where they look for ways to improve without hitting the farm. 

If Sandoval and Suarez pitch like they have been and Cobb's peripheral numbers and actual numbers normalize, that's three decent starters right there. I'm not saying that's the answer but in a soft buy situation, that's a reasonable chance you take. And with Detmers and Rodriguez likely being make league ready at some point in August, and Barria's present and historical success, you've got yourself some fall back options. 

But if they are in that situation, they may want a bullpen arm. Someone to pitch in the seventh inning that's a little more steady than Cishek and Watson. 

[TheLordofOuts]

1 hour ago, DMVol said:

Cobb hasn't been awful....

Trading Alex Cobb would be a mistake. Although he has a 5.09 ERA, his FIP is 2.64. The defense has really let him down. His strike out percentage is 27.8%, his ground ball percentage is 57%. He’s given up only 3 HRs in 53 innings.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to dominate in the 2nd half. 

[Jason]

1 hour ago, DMVol said:

Cobb hasn't been awful....

If you are comparing him with the others listed, he looks decent but he hasn’t been that good. I guess mediocre is the best description 

[DMVol]

28 minutes ago, Jason said:

If you are comparing him with the others listed, he looks decent but he hasn’t been that good. I guess mediocre is the best description 

Agreed….

[DMVol]

54 minutes ago, BritAngel said:

Marquez + story for adell,canning,thaiss + barria ?

I make no claims to be a scout or talent evaluator but Adell is now hitting .254 at SLC….I wonder how he is viewed by other organizations?

[stormngt]

11 hours ago, Blarg said:

Before tonight's game the Angels were third in OPS in the American League. That's considering Rendon, Trout and Upton missed considerable playing time. They lost Dexter Fowler early on and have been using band aids for three outfield positions. Rengifo, Wong, Schebler, Jay, and Rojas, thats a long list of guys that should not have covered those positions. 

This offense hasn't even peaked and yet the pitching staff has cratered in a response to all the adversity. Yes, defensive metrics, blah, blah, blah, but you can't ignore the home runs, the excessive walks, the forty pitch innings and starters only producing three miserable innings of work. 

To reach the playoffs the Angels require two average starters. Just average, not top of the rotation studs. Just two guys that can get to the 6th inning or later and have the game in reach. 

We don't even need relievers. Most of the relief problems come from rolling dice with five guys a night to take over for a crap the bed start. The less you go to the pen the better the odds are is the guy you pick is the right guy for that role and not just the only guy that hasn't already pitched four days in a row. 

Get two good pitchers. They don't have to be great, just good enough to push two crappy pitchers out if the rotation and let the offense do the rest. 

There is a guy in AAA that has pitched as an "average"  pitcher (100 ERA+) three years in the majors.

[totdprods]

29 minutes ago, DMVol said:

I make no claims to be a scout or talent evaluator but Adell is now hitting .254 at SLC….I wonder how he is viewed by other organizations?

You don’t go from Top 5 prospect to bust at 22 just because you had 200 bad PA in a weird year….he still has huge power, makes extremely hard contact at a near elite level, and has plenty of athleticism still. He still has plenty of value. 

It’s not a perfect reference, but the trade simulator website has Adell around 40 value, comparable to Berrios, comparable to Alcantara, half of Marquez, a little less than Castillo (53)…

I like Ward in RF, we have Marsh, Adams, Martinez, Wilson, maybe Knowles, maybe whoever we draft this year…and it’s much easier finding adequate help in OF in FA than it is impact pitching. I’d love to see Adell realize his potential here, but he’d be better for the Angels used to land an impact arm, IMO.

Adell’s power would play really well in Coors or Cincy, enough to maybe outweigh his swing and miss and defense issues.

Edited July 3, 2021 by totdprods

[BritAngel]

25 minutes ago, DMVol said:

I make no claims to be a scout or talent evaluator but Adell is now hitting .254 at SLC….I wonder how he is viewed by other organizations?

Thats the big unknown but would have him as a good fit for Rockies with them having a hitter friendly ball park and adell being known for hitting dingers, also they get a good length of control and potential.

Just checked Cannings BTV and it's dropped dramatically