FanGraphs: 2020 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Angels

[ettin]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zips-projections-los-angeles-angels/

 

[Angelsfan1984]

I don't like that they have Ty Buttrey comp as Jerry Dipoto...

trade him now!

Also, they have Pujols compared to Eddie Murray, are they referring to current day Eddie Murray in a wheelchair in the nursing home?

[tdawg87]

As always, ZIPS projections are way too conservative. Rendon is going to have his worst year since 2016? Fletcher only hits .270 and has a 1.5 WAR? Trout having the lowest full-season WAR of his career? And that's just the offense. 

Bundy pitching his fewest innings since 2016? Teheran pitching his fewest innings ever? Middleton being one of the worst pitchers in the bullpen?

Fuck this garbage.

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

I don't like that they have Ty Buttrey comp as Jerry Dipoto...

trade him now!

Also, they have Pujols compared to Eddie Murray, are they referring to current day Eddie Murray in a wheelchair in the nursing home?

They are comparing him to the Eddie Murray that played for the Angels in ‘97

[AngelsLakersFan]

36 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

As always, ZIPS projections are way too conservative. Rendon is going to have his worst year since 2016? Fletcher only hits .270 and has a 1.5 WAR? Trout having the lowest full-season WAR of his career? And that's just the offense. 

Bundy pitching his fewest innings since 2016? Teheran pitching his fewest innings ever? Middleton being one of the worst pitchers in the bullpen?

Fuck this garbage.

At the same time you could call them optimistic because they projected 0 Tommy Johns and 0 deaths this season.

[AngelsLakersFan]

39 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

As always, ZIPS projections are way too conservative. Rendon is going to have his worst year since 2016? Fletcher only hits .270 and has a 1.5 WAR? Trout having the lowest full-season WAR of his career? And that's just the offense. 

Bundy pitching his fewest innings since 2016? Teheran pitching his fewest innings ever? Middleton being one of the worst pitchers in the bullpen?

Fuck this garbage.

Also, and I know you know this, but these are median outcomes. Rendon’s projection is an average of all the times he puts up his same batting line from over the past 3 seasons with that theoretical season where he has a nagging injury or can’t figure out Anaheim’s plate alignment.

[Angelsfan1984]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

As always, ZIPS projections are way too conservative. Rendon is going to have his worst year since 2016? Fletcher only hits .270 and has a 1.5 WAR? Trout having the lowest full-season WAR of his career? And that's just the offense. 

Bundy pitching his fewest innings since 2016? Teheran pitching his fewest innings ever? Middleton being one of the worst pitchers in the bullpen?

Fuck this garbage.

All sound about right. Crazy things happen when players put on the Angels uniform.

 

 

[Angelsfan1984]

33 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

They are comparing him to the Eddie Murray that played for the Angels in ‘97

Not to be confused with Eddie Murphy.

[Second Base]

I would say this is pessimistic, but with the way the Angels have endured injuries and dumpster fire performances the past few years, it's all in play. 

I could legitimately see this team being a 94 win team, and a 74 win team as well. Lots can go right or wrong.

[Rally Gorilla]

So, all we need is the Astros to collapse and we're number one!

 

Edit:  Or better yet, they play well and we still outpace them.

[ten ocho recon scout]

4 hours ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Also, they have Pujols compared to Eddie Murray, are they referring to current day Eddie Murray in a wheelchair in the nursing home?

I think they meant eddie murphy.

Edited January 23, 2020 by ten ocho recon scout

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 hours ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Not to be confused with Eddie Murphy.

Dammit

[Second Base]

The only teams we can compare offensively v to the Angels at least in the AL are the Yankees, Astros and Twins. And given that the Yankees numbers are inflated by playing 110 games in a homer happy AL East park, and the Astros cheated their way to those numbers, I feel pretty good about where the Angels stand. 

The only teams that can match them are playoff teams. 

And who knows, maybe zips is right and the Angels pitching staff isn't very good at all, which seems like a likelihood at this point, I mean come on.... Bundy and Teheran? Really? Even if they only better on the mound than the Mariners, Royals, Tigers and Orioles, the Angels still figure to be above .500 because of that offense.

[Pancake Bear]

37 minutes ago, Second Base said:

The only teams we can compare offensively v to the Angels at least in the AL are the Yankees, Astros and Twins. And given that the Yankees numbers are inflated by playing 110 games in a homer happy AL East park, and the Astros cheated their way to those numbers, I feel pretty good about where the Angels stand. 

The only teams that can match them are playoff teams. 

And who knows, maybe zips is right and the Angels pitching staff isn't very good at all, which seems like a likelihood at this point, I mean come on.... Bundy and Teheran? Really? Even if they only better on the mound than the Mariners, Royals, Tigers and Orioles, the Angels still figure to be above .500 because of that offense.

Comparison on FG depth charts vs Zips (IP/WAR projection)

Teheran	179 0.5	165	1.7
Bundy	178 2.2	156	1.8
Heaney	168 2.8	133	2.1
Canning	135 1.7	106	1.5
Ohtani	110 2.2	70	1.3
Sandoval	66 0.6	131	1.7

Zips is probably the more accurate on Teheran and Heaney, but I think Fangraphs' depth chart projection will likely be more accurate on the rest.

[GregAlso]

Just for some clarity about what these projections mean here’s a quote from the blog posted above. 
 

“With these projections suggesting a team with win totals in the high 80s...”

 

just saying this conservative projection of ZiPs still suggests we have the best team we’ve seen in Anaheim in years. So there’s that.

[Angelsfan1984]

4 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Dammit

I’m the merlincat of Eddie Murphy memes 

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

Comparison on FG depth charts vs Zips (IP/WAR projection)

Teheran	179 0.5	165	1.7
Bundy	178 2.2	156	1.8
Heaney	168 2.8	133	2.1
Canning	135 1.7	106	1.5
Ohtani	110 2.2	70	1.3
Sandoval	66 0.6	131	1.7

Zips is probably the more accurate on Teheran and Heaney, but I think Fangraphs' depth chart projection will likely be more accurate on the rest.

Solid research. I'd also as that I think FG is closer on Ohtani as well, though I think every projection system is selling him short. It's possible he could be there best pitcher in baseball, with his arsenal and age.

ZIPS likes Sandoval a lot, which is encouraging because I figured it would be a while before the rest of baseball caught on with him.

[GregAlso]

Another interesting tidbit in here is about Adell. With all the talk about trading him here is what ZiPs think he will be in his prime. Hint: we don’t want to miss it for sure. 
 

“In terms of rest-of-career projections, ZiPS has Adell right around Aaron Judge, Christian Yelich, and Luis Robert, forecast to hit .270/.350/.500 with 30 homers a year in his prime.”

[Mark68]

21 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

As always, ZIPS projections are way too conservative. Rendon is going to have his worst year since 2016? Fletcher only hits .270 and has a 1.5 WAR? Trout having the lowest full-season WAR of his career? And that's just the offense. 

Bundy pitching his fewest innings since 2016? Teheran pitching his fewest innings ever? Middleton being one of the worst pitchers in the bullpen?

Fuck this garbage.

They accounted for the inevitable IL stints for pitchers.

It's part of their initiation to this organization.

[Hubs]

On 1/22/2020 at 11:33 AM, Angelsfan1984 said:

I don't like that they have Ty Buttrey comp as Jerry Dipoto...

trade him now!

Also, they have Pujols compared to Eddie Murray, are they referring to current day Eddie Murray in a wheelchair in the nursing home?

Eddie is a friend of my family, he still looks like he could hit a 90 mph fastball out of the park. Even at 63 years old.

[Angel Oracle]

On ‎1‎/‎22‎/‎2020 at 10:08 PM, Second Base said:

Solid research. I'd also as that I think FG is closer on Ohtani as well, though I think every projection system is selling him short. It's possible he could be there best pitcher in baseball, with his arsenal and age.

ZIPS likes Sandoval a lot, which is encouraging because I figured it would be a while before the rest of baseball caught on with him.

He could be, but may need as many as 3 seasons to get his workload up to 180 innings.   Something like 120-130 in 2020, 150-160 in 2021, and 180-190 in 2022?

Edited January 24, 2020 by Angel Oracle