BP new top 10 prospect list

[floplag]

I found this one interesting, top 4 all OF?  5 OF total, 3 SS, 2 pitchers.  

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/55341/2020-prospects-los-angeles-angels-top-10-prospects/

 

[Hubs]

I'm surprised Knowles jumped over Wilson and Jackson.

I think my list of 10 would be highly similar. I might drop in Jam Jones at 9-10, and knock off Sandoval. I don't think a player with 10 major league pitching starts is a prospect anymore. But I have hopes Sandoval can be our swing starter this year.

I also hear good things about Yan.

 

[angelsnationtalk]

I was shocked too. If it remains true, then we definitely have some OF trade pieces. 

[Second Base]

D'Shawn at #4? Really?

[Angelsjunky]

I think their basic description is pretty on-point, but Orlando Martinez doesn't belong in the top 10.

[Bronson]

Jahmai Jones couldn’t even crack the top ten. Damn.

[Second Base]

I didn't have a ton of respect for Baseball Prospectus in the first place, but somehow I have less now. They're just the worst.

I'd put BA, FG and MinorLeagueBall above them. AW above all.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think their basic description is pretty on-point, but Orlando Martinez doesn't belong in the top 10.

If you view their list as a ranking of MLEs, then it adds up, even if I personally would echo your sentiment.   But historically they tend to put a lot of weight on age vs league, park neutral data and performance at early ages...   Knowles big 2018 is likely the reason he s ranking so high.  Again, because their modeling system does a lot of historical performance comparison vs strictly looking at the individual player.

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

I didn't have a ton of respect for Baseball Prospectus in the first place, but somehow I have less now. They're just the worst.

I'd put BA, FG and MinorLeagueBall above them. AW above all.

BP just does it differently.  It's numbers first and skill sets second and like I said they put a great deal of weight in age and park neutral data -- they will almost always have a younger guy that seems massively overrated (ranked highly).

Basically they have their niche and really should be looked at differently from all the traditional prospect sites.

[Second Base]

47 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

If you view their list as a ranking of MLEs, then it adds up, even if I personally would echo your sentiment.   But historically they tend to put a lot of weight on age vs league, park neutral data and performance at early ages...   Knowles big 2018 is likely the reason he s ranking so high.  Again, because their modeling system does a lot of historical performance comparison vs strictly looking at the individual player.

BP just does it differently.  It's numbers first and skill sets second and like I said they put a great deal of weight in age and park neutral data -- they will almost always have a younger guy that seems massively overrated (ranked highly).

Basically they have their niche and really should be looked at differently from all the traditional prospect sites.

Knock it off, I'm trying to be mad.

[Lou]

3 hours ago, Second Base said:

D'Shawn at #4? Really?

D'racist 

[Inside Pitch]

3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Knock it off, I'm trying to be mad.

Lol!   Yeah, they are pretty good at getting that reaction from prospect hounds... 

[Second Base]

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

D'racist 

I just don't trust anyone willing to leave their home when it looks like this. Like when Columbus stumbled upon the Caribbean, was there any part of him that thought, "maybe just call it quits and retire here..."

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I just don't trust anyone willing to leave their home when it looks like this. Like when Columbus stumbled upon the Caribbean, was there any part of him that thought, "maybe just call it quits and retire here..."

Nope 

[Dick B Back]

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Like when Columbus stumbled upon the Caribbean, was there any part of him that thought, "maybe just call it quits and me and my crew will just hang here and spread STDs...”

 

FIFY

[Second Base]

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

Nope 

Yes.

[krAbs]

3 hours ago, Bronson said:

Jahmai Jones couldn’t even crack the top ten. Damn.

My first thought as well. I'm hoping he can get it together this next year and turn some heads. He's been learning 2B this last year - I think the most optimistic case is that he is just spending a lot of time on that side of his game, and has let his hitting slide a bit. Maybe - maybe - if he is able to get comfortable there, he can spend time bringing his hitting back up to par and become a factor for us moving forward. But at this point, he looks like he's drowning in AA.

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Yes.

I'm in

[Second Base]

3 minutes ago, Lou said:

I'm in

[Lou]

I'm out

[Second Base]

[UndertheHalo]

I like BP and I like the list.  Jam Jones has had two poor seasons in a row now.  Yes, he showed some life towards the end of the year but it is what it is.  He’s not a very good prospect right now.  I think that the ranking reflect what that Angels have invested in towards the top of the draft so I think it’s unsurprising to see some of these rank where they are.  Also, I only saw him a few times but to me Orlando Martinez was the best player to spend the entire season at IE.  Glad to see them recognize him.  He has a nice tool set. 

[Chuck]

1 hour ago, UndertheHalo said:

I like BP and I like the list.  Jam Jones has had two poor seasons in a row now.  Yes, he showed some life towards the end of the year but it is what it is.  He’s not a very good prospect right now.  I think that the ranking reflect what that Angels have invested in towards the top of the draft so I think it’s unsurprising to see some of these rank where they are.  Also, I only saw him a few times but to me Orlando Martinez was the best player to spend the entire season at IE.  Glad to see them recognize him.  He has a nice tool set. 

I still have Jones ranked in the top 10 because I feel that 2020 is his breakout year. I think they start Adell, Marsh and Jones in AAA together, in addition to some of our other prospects that got major league experience last season and I think he's going to continue the progress he showed toward the end of his Double-A season and AFL. I also predict he's going to have a solid ST. 

[Docwaukee]

this list should be viewed as a good thing.  

8 of our top ten are spot on.  The top 3 are spot on.  Sandoval, Jackson and Paris are all about where we'd expect.  Wilson is a little higher than the rest of us have ranked him but not egregiously.  

the two names that stand out are Knowles and Martinez.  and the ones missing that most of us have are Jones and Rodriguez.  

As @Inside Pitch pointed out, their evaluation system is different and very much based on an algorithm.  So maybe that tells us all a little something about Martinez and Knowles that we haven't quite noticed.  That they've done more than we realize.  And it probably tempers expectations for a guy like Rodriguez a bit considering his injury.  We know what his potential is, but performance is still important.  Same thing holds true for Jones.  His last two years from A+ to AA haven't been very good even though he's looked great in the AFL.  

So it shouldn't be viewed as a negative that certain guys aren't ranked higher but a positive that a couple guys were identified by a computer as potentially more valuable than we thought.  

Frankly, based on what I saw of all the guys on that list, I think knowles and wilson are ranked too high but Martinez is very intriguing.  Maybe not so much to put 10th, but if you break down his game in more detail, perhaps he's been overlooked.  He's got a really sweet swing.  Really sweet.  The one nit was a lack of power yet he clubbed 12hrs this year as a 21yo in high A.  Knowing the halos and their aggressive approach he's probably at AA this year as a 22yo.  He also spent most of his time in CF.  It would be really short-sighted to say this guy couldn't have a breakout year in 2020.  

[halomatt]

6 hours ago, Lou said:

D'racist 

D'accord.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

this list should be viewed as a good thing.  

8 of our top ten are spot on.  The top 3 are spot on.  Sandoval, Jackson and Paris are all about where we'd expect.  Wilson is a little higher than the rest of us have ranked him but not egregiously.  

the two names that stand out are Knowles and Martinez.  and the ones missing that most of us have are Jones and Rodriguez.  

As @Inside Pitch pointed out, their evaluation system is different and very much based on an algorithm.  So maybe that tells us all a little something about Martinez and Knowles that we haven't quite noticed.  That they've done more than we realize.  And it probably tempers expectations for a guy like Rodriguez a bit considering his injury.  We know what his potential is, but performance is still important.  Same thing holds true for Jones.  His last two years from A+ to AA haven't been very good even though he's looked great in the AFL.  

So it shouldn't be viewed as a negative that certain guys aren't ranked higher but a positive that a couple guys were identified by a computer as potentially more valuable than we thought.  

Frankly, based on what I saw of all the guys on that list, I think knowles and wilson are ranked too high but Martinez is very intriguing.  Maybe not so much to put 10th, but if you break down his game in more detail, perhaps he's been overlooked.  He's got a really sweet swing.  Really sweet.  The one nit was a lack of power yet he clubbed 12hrs this year as a 21yo in high A.  Knowing the halos and their aggressive approach he's probably at AA this year as a 22yo.  He also spent most of his time in CF.  It would be really short-sighted to say this guy couldn't have a breakout year in 2020.  

Martinez can wake up and hit, that's for sure. He takes a year and a half off from baseball escaping Cuba, spends almost no time in rookie ball and is in advanced A Ball as a 21 year old in his first full season stateside. He seems like he'll be a bat first 4th outfielder, a David Murphy type. 

But when you play on a team with Trout, Adell, Marsh, Adams and Hermosillo, it's a tough path to playing time.