AngelsWin.com Today: Who will be the big spenders this winter?

[Docwaukee]

Discuss...

[AngelsWin.com]

By Jason Sinner, AngelsWin.com Columnist (aka @Dochalo)

Here's who unlikely will spend on players outside of some 1 and maybe 2-yr deals. We won't really go into much detail here for the following teams.

BAL, DET, KC, TB, TOR, ARZ, MIA, COL, PIT, SF.  

Here's who might spend some money but likely on deals in the 1-3yr range.  Not on any big names.  

BOS - likely to shed some payroll.  can't see them being big FA players
OAK - don't have much money but might surprise with a key player or two on shorter deals.  Nothing big.  Could make a couple trades.  
CLE - Payroll is manageable now.  If they trade Lindor, they could make a small deal or two.  
SEA - don't see them going big on any particular player.  a couple of small deals and of course some trades
CHC - payroll already at 183m.  Don't see them doing much other than some complementary pieces.  Cap number is already above 200m.  
HOU - I debated on where to put them but I really think they'll stay fairly conservative this year.  They'll add some pieces but they're already at 220m for 2020.   
NYM - At 180m  in salary and 203m in AAV.  don't see them going big.  

Teams that could spend just because of who they are:

LAD - always a threat to go at a big time player.  They've avoided long term contracts in the recent past and already have a good team with a great farm.  At 175m for 2020.  They're gonna do some stuff.  I definitely see them as a player for the SP market.  Maybe Cole but more likely in that next tier down.  

NYY - same as the Dodgers.  2020 payroll at 204m.  AAV at 215.  again, they could always spend but I think they end up being a little more conservative.  

Teams that could spend and go after a longer term contract on a couple key players but won't go huge:

ARZ - they were a pretty good team in 2019.  payroll at 109m.  Made some substantial trades at the deadline and could move Ray for more cheap talent.  Wouldn't surprise me if they went after a slightly more expensive player or two.  

ATL - I don't think they'll go big but their current payroll sits at about 90m so they definitely could.  Lots of prospect capital here as well.  I think they'll definitely be in on SP in the tier after Cole.  Could surprise and even make a run at Cole but I doubt it.  

CIN - smaller market team who could also be in the secondary market and spend some but likely not huge.  At 122m already for 2020.

MIL - similar to CIN.  They're likely still trying to hold on to their window.  At about 97m right now so they've definitely got some room.  

STL - at 163m in payroll and 176m in AAV.  They won't be afraid to add the right players but I don't see them in the top of the market.  

The big spenders:

TEX - I could see them shelling out some dough this winter on both SP and Rendon.  Personally I think that would be a mistake as they got some non sustainable performances to make them seem better than they really can be long term.  Pence, Choo, Lynn, Minor, Santana.  There are rumors of them going after Rendon which I could see happening but I think there's a fair amount of fools gold with this team.  

MIN - they are losing 4 of their SP from their rotation and had a 100 win season.  Payroll is at 80m.  Plus they they a very good farm.  I think they'll be very active this winter.  I don't see them going after Cole, but anyone in the tier below is someone they'll target.  Plus, I could see them in on big trade or two.  

CWS - a good lineup and better than most people think with some key additions.  Payroll is at about 60m.  They'll definitely be in on Cole and probably Rendon as well.  They may very well whiff on everyone they go after, but they'll be looking to make some big splashes (plural).  Plus, they still have a good farm system.  

WSH - just won the series.  They have spent in the past and payroll of 120m gives them plenty of room to work.  

PHI - disappointing year and payroll at 171m with AAV at 191m.  They were all in last year and need pitching.  They'll spend but this could be a team that's in a bad way by the end of 2020.  

LAA - money to spend. Need starting pitching. No brainer! 

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[Chuck]

58 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Discuss...

Good stuff @Dochalo. I promoted this to our Blog and homepage.

[tdawg87]

13 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Good stuff @Dochalo. I promoted this to our Blog and homepage.

But you also stole his post and now any likes for the post will go to "Angelswin.com".

This is a kangaroo forum. 

[Claude]

Wow nice write up Doc. I completely agree. Your take on the Dodgers and Yankees is spot on. They’ll both stay away from the tier 1 players and look for deals and solid trades.

The Angels will be spenders and most likely nab Cole. It’s the complimentary moves that the Angels need to do simultaneously that will make the difference. Eppler needs to be very creative and be careful not to get caught up in signing one big splash and not addressing other needs. We need more than Cole. 

Edited November 3, 2019 by Calzone 2

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

Wow nice write up Doc. I completely agree. Your take on the Dodgers and Yankees is spot on. They’ll both stay away from the tier 1 players and look for deals and solid trades.

The Angels will be spenders and most likely nab Cole. It’s the complimentary moves that the Angels need to do simultaneously that will make the difference. Eppler needs to be very creative and be careful not to get caught up in signing one big splash and not addressing other needs. We need more than Cole. 

That's a decent point and a part of me is scared we're going to hear "Getting Ohtani back is like getting another ace" so our 2nd pitcher will be Alex Wood.

I hope Arte is truly willing to go all out and I hope Eppler is able to get Cole AND a legit #3 starter at worst.

[Claude]

4 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

But you also stole his post and now any likes for the post will go to "Angelswin.com".

This is a kangaroo forum. 

Chuck has an Angelswin disclaimer that allows him to rob borrow others material to promote the site. Good stuff though. 

[Claude]

4 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

That's a decent point and a part of me is scared we're going to hear "Getting Ohtani back is like getting another ace" so our 2nd pitcher will be Alex Wood.

I hope Arte is truly willing to go all out and I hope Eppler is able to get Cole AND a legit #3 starter at worst.

Lol @ Alex Wood 

and you bring up a great point. 

 

[Claude]

30 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Good stuff @Dochalo. I promoted this to our Blog and homepage.

@Dochalo your Angelswin check is in the mail. 

[eligrba]

I think Arte will finish close to 200 million when the off season is finished.  This is the free agent window that the Angels have been waiting for. 

[Second Base]

I think this winter is going to be pretty unique. Traditionally, when you think of big spenders in the off-season, you'd think Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Dodgers, Giants, Phillies, Cubs....

But every signing one of those teams aren't going to be spending big this winter, for various reasons.

And when you think of mid market teams that are typically in the mix on a lot of different guys, almost all of them will be spending this winter. Angels, Rangers, Twins, White Sox, Cards, Brews, Reds, Braves...

There is still going to be major competition for free agents. The only difference is it probably won't be as high without evil empires spending.

I can see this really coming down to the Twins vs Angels for most of the major free agent pitchers.

[tdawg87]

2 hours ago, eligrba said:

I think Arte will finish close to 200 million when the off season is finished.  This is the free agent window that the Angels have been waiting for. 

Honestly, wouldn't surprise me. We've given a realistic estimate of about 190 million, but perhaps that's a bit conservative. 200 million is very high but not out of the question. I think if they're at 188 or something and Eppler pitches Grandal to Arte, assuming we've signed Cole and another pitcher, I think he does it.

An off-season of Cole, Wheeler, and Grandal would be absolutely amazing. Just completely transforms this team.

I don't expect it. Obviously those are 3 of the most sought after FA's available and lots of other teams will want them. But with Trout locked down I think Arte may be a man on a mission. No matter what happens, this will be an off-season for the ages.

[Second Base]

7 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Honestly, wouldn't surprise me. We've given a realistic estimate of about 190 million, but perhaps that's a bit conservative. 200 million is very high but not out of the question. I think if they're at 188 or something and Eppler pitches Grandal to Arte, assuming we've signed Cole and another pitcher, I think he does it.

An off-season of Cole, Wheeler, and Grandal would be absolutely amazing. Just completely transforms this team.

I don't expect it. Obviously those are 3 of the most sought after FA's available and lots of other teams will want them. But with Trout locked down I think Arte may be a man on a mission. No matter what happens, this will be an off-season for the ages.

You bring up an interesting point which I haven't really considered yet. The order in which signings happen. If Grandal is left on the market after the Angels have built their pitching staff, they may be very tempted to raise payroll. 

And if things don't go the Angels way with free agents, will Billy get Reagins level desperate and make a Vernon Wells type of trade? Or would Billy have fortitude to stand and take the shot he knows is coming, which is him not having his option picked up, but the farm system would remain stocked and they'd still have financial flexibility? 

[Pancake Bear]

Good write-up. Like I've been saying every time someone says the Yanks and Dodgers will be in a bidding war for Cole: People aren't paying attention. Neither team has shown willingness recently to go that big or that desperate. That could always change - and as you pointed out, they could both definitely afford it - but so far, no sign of that.

And for my money, why should they? Both barely missed out this year. Between LA, Washington, NY, and Houston, it wouldn't have taken much going differently to see any one of them winning it all. Houston will lose their (arguably) best pitcher. Washington may lose one of their top two. That drops them down to NY and LA's level. Why would you do a 7 year deal that could handcuff your franchise for years to come unless you have to? That's why I seriously doubt that either will. It just doesn't make sense for either unless desperation overrides good judgment.

[Claude]

1 hour ago, Sean-Regan said:

Good write-up. Like I've been saying every time someone says the Yanks and Dodgers will be in a bidding war for Cole: People aren't paying attention. Neither team has shown willingness recently to go that big or that desperate. That could always change - and as you pointed out, they could both definitely afford it - but so far, no sign of that.

And for my money, why should they? Both barely missed out this year. Between LA, Washington, NY, and Houston, it wouldn't have taken much going differently to see any one of them winning it all. Houston will lose their (arguably) best pitcher. Washington may lose one of their top two. That drops them down to NY and LA's level. Why would you do a 7 year deal that could handcuff your franchise for years to come unless you have to? That's why I seriously doubt that either will. It just doesn't make sense for either unless desperation overrides good judgment.

The Yankees if healthy don’t really need anything but a number 3 or 4 pitcher. They will be perfectly satisfied with Cole going out west and not headed to Boston or anywhere else in the AL East.  

The Dodgers have a solid club and won’t get involved with Cole unless some other NL West team gets seriously engaged. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

The sleeper is really the Chicago White Sox. With that kind of talent, and that payroll, in that city there is a sure fire chance that they re going to out bid teams on the top players. Who knows which of these guys will be all about the money or just how foolish the CWS might end up being, but they will definitely be capable of out bidding everyone.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

5 hours ago, Second Base said:

And if things don't go the Angels way with free agents, will Billy get Reagins level desperate and make a Vernon Wells type of trade? Or would Billy have fortitude to stand and take the shot he knows is coming, which is him not having his option picked up, but the farm system would remain stocked and they'd still have financial flexibility? 

I believe that Eppler is too sharp to get duped into a deal for a player in his early-to-mid thirties that is owed a ton of money.

[Pancake Bear]

15 minutes ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

I believe that Eppler is too sharp to get duped into a deal for a player in his early-to-mid thirties that is owed a ton of money.

Well, I mean, the Stros already traded for Greinke. 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

3 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Well, I mean, the Stros already traded for Greinke. 

Lightning in a bottle that won't last.

[kevinb]

San Diego 

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

Lightning in a bottle that won't last.

I'd like to think his brilliance will come to an end at some point.  His age is currently showing to some degree in that he can't get as deep into games as he used to but he was still absolutely amazing last year nonetheless.  

I don't get the same feeling of Verlander but you never know.  

The loss of Cole couple with one of those guys becoming just good and not great makes them catchable.  And by catchable I mean 93-97 wins instead of 107.  So it's not some foregone conclusion that we will, but we'll definitely have a shot with some strong moves.  

But therein lies the rump.  If we get overly aggressive at free agents and trades, we could set ourselves back to the start.  

[jordan]

10 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

The sleeper is really the Chicago White Sox. With that kind of talent, and that payroll, in that city there is a sure fire chance that they re going to out bid teams on the top players. Who knows which of these guys will be all about the money or just how foolish the CWS might end up being, but they will definitely be capable of out bidding everyone.

They’re still on the south side, which brings being in “that city” down quite a few fun factor notches. 

[T.G.]

Big spender?

[Second Base]

10 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I'd like to think his brilliance will come to an end at some point.  His age is currently showing to some degree in that he can't get as deep into games as he used to but he was still absolutely amazing last year nonetheless.  

I don't get the same feeling of Verlander but you never know.  

The loss of Cole couple with one of those guys becoming just good and not great makes them catchable.  And by catchable I mean 93-97 wins instead of 107.  So it's not some foregone conclusion that we will, but we'll definitely have a shot with some strong moves.  

But therein lies the rump.  If we get overly aggressive at free agents and trades, we could set ourselves back to the start.  

I think that is a legitimate possibility. And when teams within the division improve, that typically comes at the cost of the first place team, if they themselves have not improved.

The 2019 Indians are a good example of this.

If the Angels do improve by 20+ wins from 2019 to 2020 as I'm expecting them to, then I do believe that will negatively impact the win total of both the Astros and the A's. 

I envision the 2020 AL West sporting three teams between 90-100 wins.