Ken Rosenthal: Why Mike Trout should still be a lock for AL MVP

[floplag]

I find it intriguing that so many people are trying to justify Bregman due to Trout missing time, but are still pushing Bellinger vs Yelich as though he didnt. 
Its all become rather silly really. 

[Pancake Bear]

7 minutes ago, floplag said:

I find it intriguing that so many people are trying to justify Bregman due to Trout missing time, but are still pushing Bellinger vs Yelich as though he didnt. 
Its all become rather silly really. 

IMO, voting Yelich over Bellinger is legitimate. In both cases, it's a question of how much 20 games matters when counting stats are close and rate stats substantially favor the guy who played less games, and how much defense should factor in.

Trout's case vs. Bregman is better, but it isn't that far off from Yelich vs. Bellinger. 

[Docwaukee]

the brewers are winning without Yelich so he must not be that valuable.  

[happybat4]

Back to 8.2. Going down to the wire. Hopefully he gets a day off. 

[PenG]

I no longer see a plausible argument for Trout. Not only did Bregman continue playing out of his mind since mid July, he has actually improved all of his metrics since Trout was pulled. 

[Stradling]

Cool, he is still going to win.  

[Troll Daddy]

1 hour ago, happybat4 said:

Back to 8.2. Going down to the wire. Hopefully he gets a day off. 

What makes you believe that WAR is going to decide who wins MVP

[happybat4]

7 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

What makes you believe that WAR is going to decide who wins MVP

I think for a few voters it may matter. I'd also just like Trout to lead the league in War. 

[Angelsjunky]

Trout somehow gained 0.1 fWAR over the night, now up to 8.7 again.

Actually, it is weird - there were some big fWAR changes due to adjustments with Def. A lot of players' fWAR dropped substantially, including Bellinger and Harper, and among Angels, Fletcher and Simmons. Simmons, acccording to fWAR, is having his worst defensive year by far. Fletcher dropped from 3+ fWAR to 2.4.

Harper dropped over a whole win, Bellinger almost a whole win.

Not sure what's up with that.

[ScottT]

Trout got all five first place votes in a poll of CBS Sports writers. The article was posted yesterday. 

[Blarg]

46 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Trout somehow gained 0.1 fWAR over the night, now up to 8.7 again.

Actually, it is weird - there were some big fWAR changes due to adjustments with Def. A lot of players' fWAR dropped substantially, including Bellinger and Harper, and among Angels, Fletcher and Simmons. Simmons, acccording to fWAR, is having his worst defensive year by far. Fletcher dropped from 3+ fWAR to 2.4.

Harper dropped over a whole win, Bellinger almost a whole win.

Not sure what's up with that.

WAR is a counting stat. A player cannot increase their total missing games and in Simmons case he has only played in 101 games. So his WAR total represents games played not his actual abilities. 

The amazing part about Trout's season is he is missing 28 games of WAR acrueing time and still leads the league. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

4 minutes ago, Blarg said:

WAR is a counting stat. A player cannot increase their total missing games and in Simmons case he has only played in 101 games. So his WAR total represents games played not his actual abilities. 

The amazing part about Trout's season is he is missing 28 games of WAR acrueing time and still leads the league. 

I’m not sure about that. I think somewhere within WAR there is some component that’s normalized for league averages, which means it can change a little even when you don’t play. 

 

[m0nkey]

4 minutes ago, Blarg said:

WAR is a counting stat. A player cannot increase their total missing games and in Simmons case he has only played in 101 games. So his WAR total represents games played not his actual abilities. 

The amazing part about Trout's season is he is missing 28 games of WAR acrueing time and still leads the league. 

It appears you missed the meaning of his post. The calculation or formulas or whatever they use to calculate WAR changed, and as a result changed certain players WARs. Not because of something they did yesterday. 

[m0nkey]

Or what he said 

[Blarg]

3 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I’m not sure about that. I think somewhere within WAR there is some component that’s normalized for league averages, which means it can change a little even when you don’t play. 

 

I get what you are saying but that's just tide shifting. To make a move forward that isn't part of league normalization you have to play the game. 

[Blarg]

4 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

It appears you missed the meaning of his post. The calculation or formulas or whatever they use to calculate WAR changed, and as a result changed certain players WARs. Not because of something they did yesterday. 

I was responding to Simmons situation in particular. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

22 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I get what you are saying but that's just tide shifting. To make a move forward that isn't part of league normalization you have to play the game. 

I don’t know how it works. Someone else suggested Trouts number went up and I was offering an explanation for how that may have happened. It’s not a relevant move in any case. 

[Blarg]

It would be interesting to see if fangraphs decides to go back in time and make player adjustments for their fWar given changes in their rating system. 

[happybat4]

3 minutes ago, Blarg said:

It would be interesting to see if fangraphs decides to go back in time and make player adjustments for their fWar given changes in their rating system. 

I think they have done that a few times. I read an article about players who's career wars were the most affected by the change. 

[Angelsjunky]

Yes, they adjust their formula every so often. There was a rather massive adjustment for catcher framing back in March, which led to a lot of catchers getting huge increases - especially guys like Yadier Molina, Brian McCann and Russell Martin, who tended to be underrated by WAR. Jonathan Lucroy was second in the majors in 2014, with an 8.2 fWAR just behind Trout's 8.3.

Anyhow, yes, it also shifts weekly as WAR is a zero sum figure, I believe. 

But I just checked again, and the WAR is back to how it was yesterday - so it must have been a glitch in their system. 

[m0nkey]

Crisis averted 

[Angelsjunky]

Bummer. 8.7 is a cooler number than 8.6.

First world problems.

[happybat4]

He is stuck at 8.2 after last night. One more day to go! Hopefully he doesn't play today or is taken out after 1 at bat. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

FYI, I still think Trout is going to win.

[Stradling]

Me too.