Three aces in 2020

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Duren, Duren said:

Syndergaard or Adell?

Ultimately that remains the core question behind  any potential trade. 

Which player will provide the most value to the Angels long term?

Adell has age on his side, familiarity from Angel fans watching his career, and unknown but high expectations for a long all star type career. And he is an outfielder. Not a major position of need. Also cost controllable for the near future.

Syndergaard is a youngish veteran still with a long career ahead. He has a pretty nice track record, hasn't reached his peak years  and would instantly improve the Angels at their biggest position of need. Starting pitching. He will cost much more immediately, but as the likely ace that is to be expected. 

One or the other? 

The only way trading Adell now is if he blossoms into a really great young player in the next few years.  Then his loss will be fresh and second guesses will go nuts. But even if he does, Syndergaard playing at his best neutralizes the equation and the trade is one of those 'good for both team's deals. 

If Adell takes say four or five years to become great and Syndergaard is less than expected enough time will have passed, and enough other roster changes will have occurred to drain the emotion out of the trade. 

And if course, if Adell turns out to be ordinary and Syndergaard meets expectations, Eppler is judged a genius for his boldness.

I dont really think thats the issue, as the assumption that Adell takes over in RF is where the money for this person is likely to come from. 
If we deal Adell, it better be for someone with zero questions (Syndegaard to me is not that) and were looking at March being the heir apparent in RF or re-upping Kole option.  

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Simmons current contract also ends next year so he'll be up for an extension or new contract when he's 31.  Defensively his game may age well but for the Angels who have an in house replacement and big needs at pitching Simmons (like Calhoun) is someone it makes some sense to move while focusing beyond next year.   

[jsnpritchett]

6 minutes ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

Simmons current contract also ends next year so he'll be up for an extension or new contract when he's 31.  Defensively his game may age well but for the Angels who have an in house replacement and big needs at pitching Simmons (like Calhoun) is someone it makes some sense to move while focusing beyond next year.   

I'm not even sure his defense will age well--and given that his offense is soft this year (admittedly after injury), you could be looking at situation where you've got a guy who's a little above average defensively and below average offensively making $20M+ a year if they extend him.  No thanks.  Totally agree that they should try to move him this week or in the off-season if at all possible (though I realize I'm probably in the minority here).

[Angelsjunky]

If no other team was interested in Syndergaard, the Angels could get him without giving up Adell. But we have to remember that trades don't happen in a vacuum; the Mets will receive multiple offers. The Angels would almost certainly need to offer Adell to even be competitive.

[floplag]

I know they said it wasnt the plan but i think i would rather try to get the Mets to flip Stroman than overpay for Thor.  The market price is set.. 4 & 6ish.   We might have to add more due to ours not being as high top 100 wise of course but still.  

[totdprods]

14 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I'm not even sure his defense will age well--and given that his offense is soft this year (admittedly after injury), you could be looking at situation where you've got a guy who's a little above average defensively and below average offensively making $20M+ a year if they extend him.  No thanks.  Totally agree that they should try to move him this week or in the off-season if at all possible (though I realize I'm probably in the minority here).

I felt they should've put his name out there last July, ahead of the Machado sweepstakes, and tried to pull back some SP from San Diego. 

He's an otherworldly talent, but its difficult to say how long the defense will remain at that level and how he will age, when that decline might happen, how quickly it could occur, etc. He's becoming a little injury-prone as well, and the bat hasn't really taken a step into forward into a new peak to allay any gradual defense decline - not that we needed it to. But it does make it tricky to gauge what he should be paid or offered moving forward, especially when we have two similarly-hitting shortstops making league-minimum right now.

It's a very specific domino-effect of events, but dealing Adell and Simmons as a bulk of the package for Syndergaard, one of Lugo/Matz/Stroman, and Wheeler sets the Angels up to lock-in 2/5ths of the rotation long-term, cheaply, to go with a mostly cheap and controlled offense. 
Calhoun is declined, Simmons is off the books, the Angels now have $50m+ to spend on 2020 needs, and they now have three major roads they could go down, instead of being locked in to a Gerrit-Cole-or-bust plan.

• 1) They could still go after Cole and create a monster rotation; Cole, Syndergaard, Ohtani, Heaney, and Lugo/Matz/Stroman, with Canning as depth.
• 2) They could go after Rendon and hope his defense offsets the loss of Simmons and bat offsets the loss of Adell - he is OPSing .945 the last three years, and we have other OF talent in the system.
• 3) They spread the assets around if neither pan out; maybe a combination of a couple next-tier FAs, like Marcell Ozuna in RF, Yasmani Grandal at C, Josh Donaldson at 3B, Nicholas Castellanos at RF, the Odorizzi/Gio/Miley/Hill/Gibson/Wacha/Ryu/Wheeler/Wood arms at SP

I know how popular Simmons is and how enamored we are with Adell, but there are other ways to utilize their value rather than constantly declaring one a must-sign extension candidate and the 2020 RF.

Edited July 29, 2019 by totdprods

[Angelsjunky]

A compelling argument, but I don't think the Angels trade Simmons or Adell. Despite having an off year, Simmons is just too central to the team, and I just don't think his trade value is quite as high as we'd might like to think. I think it more likely the Angels trade Rengifo, and that the Mets would want Rengifo. 

While I think it will likely take more, there is a chance that the Mets like a package like Rengifo, Marsh, Barria, and Hernandez. That's a lot to give up, but might be worth it. As Fangraphs pointed out, Syndergaard has been plagued by poor infield defense; putting him in an infield with Simmons and Fletcher instantly improves that ERA.

[NJHalo]

30 minutes ago, floplag said:

I know they said it wasnt the plan but i think i would rather try to get the Mets to flip Stroman than overpay for Thor.  The market price is set.. 4 & 6ish.   We might have to add more due to ours not being as high top 100 wise of course but still.  

Might happen. WFAN reporting from multiple sources that Stroman was not happy to be going to the Mets. 

[floplag]

3 hours ago, NJHalo said:

Might happen. WFAN reporting from multiple sources that Stroman was not happy to be going to the Mets. 

would you be? 
He had visions of going to the Yanks or a contender and took a downgrade, id be pissed.
Though to be fair, we arent exactly any better option right now but generating ground balls here will work a crap ton better than there. 

[Slegnaac]

51 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I'm not even sure his defense will age well--and given that his offense is soft this year (admittedly after injury), you could be looking at situation where you've got a guy who's a little above average defensively and below average offensively making $20M+ a year if they extend him.  No thanks.  Totally agree that they should try to move him this week or in the off-season if at all possible (though I realize I'm probably in the minority here).

Simmons is a Smart ballplayer.   He knows where he should be on the field when he isn't directly involved in the play.   He is always looking to back pick runners making wide turns.  His value isn't just his range, glove, arm and bat.

[NJHalo]

Just now, Slegnaac said:

Simmons is a Smart ballplayer.   He knows where he should be on the field when he isn't directly involved in the play.   He is always looking to back pick runners making wide turns.  His value isn't just his range, glove, arm and bat.

This is exactly what the Mets need. Unless the DH comes to the NL soon, the Mets are stuck with Cano at 2B for a while, so someone like Simba at SS would lessen their pain. 

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, NJHalo said:

This is exactly what the Mets need. Unless the DH comes to the NL soon, the Mets are stuck with Cano at 2B for a while, so someone like Simba at SS would lessen their pain. 

That's sort of led me to think about using him here. They have an awful IF defense, Rosario could move to 3B or 2B and learn under Simmons, and he'd help make the most of their Stroman acquisition, and would help them contend in '20. 
They might have already been planning on courting him if he hit FA and this just helps them get a step closer. It allows the Angels to cash in on his value now when it's at its highest while they have seemingly two internal replacements ready to go. 
Should it involve Adell, it also conveniently makes it easy to keep Calhoun around for another year as Marsh develops, and frees up the same amount of money for pitching - which we also would have acquired in a Simmons deal.

Also - the DH does not need to come to the NL.
Rosters will expand to 26 next year, a roster spot which I'm unofficially calling the 'club elder' spot, that enables teams like the Angels (Pujols), Mets (Cano), and Tigers (Cabrera) to keep overpaid unproductive vets around as part-time players and unofficial coaches/clubhouse leaders. 

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

18 minutes ago, Slegnaac said:

Simmons is a Smart ballplayer.   He knows where he should be on the field when he isn't directly involved in the play.   He is always looking to back pick runners making wide turns.  His value isn't just his range, glove, arm and bat.

I don't think anyone would disagree but again his contract is through next year.  Bogaerts signed for 20M a year before this season while Lindor, Correa and Baez could all eclipse that in the next year or two and set the SS market.  Even in his early 30's Simmons could command up to 20M a year from some team.  If the Angels don't want to pay him that then from a business standpoint it makes sense to see what they can get via trade.

[Angelsjunky]

The Simmons extension will depend upon his performance next year. Statistically speaking he's lost a step both defensively and offensively this year. That might be entirely due to his injury, but the Angels will want to make sure before offering him a multi-year deal.

[NJHalo]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Also - the DH does not need to come to the NL.
Rosters will expand to 26 next year, a roster spot which I'm unofficially calling the 'club elder' spot, that enables teams like the Angels (Pujols), Mets (Cano), and Tigers (Cabrera) to keep overpaid unproductive vets around as part-time players and unofficial coaches/clubhouse leaders. 

True, but they still have to find a spot for him in the lineup. His defense is on the downslope and will only get worse. 

[Slegnaac]

3 minutes ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

I don't think anyone would disagree but again his contract is through next year.  Bogaerts signed for 20M a year before this season while Lindor, Correa and Baez could all eclipse that in the next year or two and set the SS market.  Even in his early 30's Simmons could command up to 20M a year from some team.  If the Angels don't want to pay him that then from a business standpoint it makes sense to move him rather than letting him walk.  

I would rather see him stay, but my point is that his value is more than just above average defense and below average offense.

[fan_since79]

3 hours ago, jgimondo said:

Fletcher is no where near Simmons quality of play in the field.

He has upside and is a great competitor. He can continue to polish that defense. There's no doubt about his hitting or overall dedication to the game. 

Simmons for Syndergaard? Absolutely.

[Stradling]

6 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

I understand what you are saying but unless prospects 2-5 can be dominant pitchers, then they will be effectively useless in solving the specific problem the Angels actual have, the one that will keep them from winning.

Not even close to being true.  

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, jgimondo said:

Fletcher is no where near Simmons quality of play in the field.

Sure, Simmons is a better player. But you have to factor in age and salary.

Simmons turns 30 later this year, is owed $15M next year (a bargain) and will be paid something like $18-20M a year for the next 4-5 years. So we're essentially talking something like $100M for Simmons' age 30-35 seasons.

Fletcher turned 25 a couple months ago, so is 4.5 years younger. He's making $561k this year, isn't arbitration eligible until 2022 and not a free agent until 2025. So if we're looking at the same time span (the next six years), we're talking something like $30-35M* for his age 26-31 seasons.

*I don't know how to calculate arbitration estimates, but I figure about $1.5M for the next two years, something like $15-20M for three years of arbitration, and then $10-15M for his first year of free agency (assuming he stays an Angels, which probably won't be the case with their middle infield prospect talent).

[Dtwncbad]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Not even close to being true.  

I would hope you understand the point rather than take it literally.

The Angels are never going to win anything without pitching.

[Angelsjunky]

A bit more on Simmons vs. Fletcher. 

Simmons is a 5 WAR talent with one year, at age 30, of club control for a very team friendly $15M.

Fletcher is a 4 WAR talent with five years, at age 26-30, of club control, the first years of which are pre-arb and thus dirt cheap, the next three of which are arb but still affordable. 

Now WAR isn't everything, and Simmons is a player whose greatness may never be adequately summed up by any stat. He does things on the field that do reflect in his WAR, but maybe not to the extent that they do in the actual real world. 

If you are a GM, you have to look at both sides: value via WAR and statistics, and value on the field and in the club-house.

Simmons is a great defender, an above average hitter, who has seen his best value years and is going to get more expensive while probably declining.

Fletcher is a very good defender, a similar hitter, who is in the early years of his prime and won't get expensive for another half decade.

Fletcher is a more valuable trade chip than Simmons, at least to a team in the process of rebuilding. To a contender with money who wants to win now or in the next year or three, Simmons is the guy.

[Angelsjunky]

8 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I would hope you understand the point rather than take it literally.

The Angels are never going to win anything without pitching.

Let me give you some insight into Stradling. He's a smart dude, understands the point, but will act like you mean it literally so he can tell you that you're wrong.

In other words, Stradling is a contrarian and takes pleasure out of brow-beating people.

Which is why we love him.

[Angel Oracle]

6 hours ago, totdprods said:

Obviously, with La Stella currently out, there's room for both Fletcher and Rengifo to play nearly every day but...

Fletcher is, offensively, about as damn close to an identical replacement for Simmons' as one could hope for, and he's still good defensively. Rengifo as well. 
Couple that with the $15m you save next year and the pitching return you get? It doesn't have to be that much of a weakening for 2020. 

I am beginning to come around to trading Simba.   He's struggled at the plate this season, and Fletcher has the arm for SS, the only question is the range.

But can Thaiss ultimately improve the OBP to go with the sock in his bat, and thus take over 3B with more experience? 

WE NEED SOLID ENOUGH STARTING PITCHING WITH CONTROL IN THE WORST WAY!   These current starters are NOT capable of even 150 innings in 2020, and maybe not even in 2021? 

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Not even close to being true.  

But if they don't acquire any quality starting pitching in the off-season, how are they going to get enough quality starts over the next 2-3 years to not burn out the pen yet again?  

[NJHalo]

Simmons is everything Jeter was hyped to be, without the rings or gift baskets.