Will they trade Calhoun?

[Angel Oracle]

The key to the 2nd WC spot is the Red Sux.   They are starting to play better baseball.   If that continues, they will get the 2nd WC.

Essentially, Calhoun has 1.5 seasons remaining on his contract, because his play since this time a year ago would warrant a lot of teams paying him his 2020 option year salary.  

[Inside Pitch]

55 minutes ago, totdprods said:

It’s a gamble, for sure, but I feel it’s one worth taking - and even if this proves an outlier season, his age, cost, and control all bode well for future value - he’s been fairly durable and not dramatically different from Heaney or Skaggs production. While I know that isn’t particularly appealing, it is a substantial step up from the filler we’ve used in recent years, and hopefully he’d outproduce that. Basically, his lesser outcome is at the very least good insurance. 

That's just it -- I wouldn't give up a ton for a guy who for the bulk of his career has actually been worse than either Skaggs or Heaney.    Consider this -- Boyd's in his age 28 season -- prior to this season he carried an ERA+ of 86, a 4.79 FIP over 460 innings...  How much weight should we be giving what he's done this year .vs those career numbers through age 27? -- particularly when he's not really changed much.

I get that he hasn't broken down, that there is potential payroll flexibility and the years of control but, if you're going to part with assets beyond $$ I'd rather they do so for someone that isn't having a pop up type season, or with a longer track record for success.   Using Skaggs as an example -- he gave the Angels an amazing 80+ innings before boom.   Boyd opened the year with .557 OPS allowed in his first 8,  in his last 7 that is up over .800 and those 7 games include starts .vs Baltimore and Miami where he dominated -- in his last three starts it's almost 900.  It's not like he's imploding -- not even close.  He's maintained his swinging strike rates and most of his predictors are in line, the only real spike is in HR/9, but it does make me wonder how much of that early success was the weather.  He also avoided facing Minnesota until last week, that AL Central is awfully weak offensively other than the Twins.

55 minutes ago, totdprods said:

It’s also why I think the Angels could also leverage some of their more boom/bust prospects into compromising a bulk of the deal - guys like Ward, Jones, Adams, Maitan, a pitcher like Barria, Suarez, Sandoval, guys who might be near MLB-ready but not frontline upside, including the many A/A+ SPs, and also guys like Rojas and Walsh who could either be legit MLBers or 4A minor league journeyman.

No idea what Detroit may be looking for but given the reality that they have the worst offense in MLB, I'm guessing they would want to cash Boyd in for bats -- particularly given the strength of their minor league pitching.  Mize, Manning, Faedo, Hill -- they have some nice arms.   I can see them valuing Barria as potentially being as good as Boyd had been previously, but not sure they would be enticed by Ward, or anyone currently floundering.  

Who knows?

Anyway, not trying to shit on Boyd so much as saying I'm not sold on him and I do think Detroit will try to cash in on him.

Edited June 17, 2019 by Inside Pitch

[Angel Oracle]

In addition to IP's solid thoughts, don't the Halos have enough LHP's in the rotation already (Skaggs, Heaney, and Suarez, with Sandoval on the way)?

 

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

In addition to IP's solid thoughts, don't the Halos have enough LHP's in the rotation already (Skaggs, Heaney, and Suarez, with Sandoval on the way)?

Detroit is heavy on MLB-ready RHP SP prospects. In my mind, they’d want Suarez or Sandoval as the SP prospect coming back to give them some balance. I’m not sold on Suarez being more than a #3-4 guy. Sandoval has a little more ceiling but I also think he’s going to have more bust potential or early struggles - could even wind up in pen.

Skaggs is only controlled one more season - maybe he re-signs? Maybe not. Frees him up as trade bait too, if Eppler wants to keep trend of selling expiring vets. Skaggs and Boyd are very different when you compare salary and control, so they aren’t redundant in those factors.

And our prospect depth beyond AAA is also very right-handed heavy.

[Angel Oracle]

I'm just not convinced that Boyd is an upper rotation guy, at this point.

Maaaan, is Detroit's offense really bad!    On pace for only something like 550 runs scored for an entire season?  

They are as bad as the 1992 Halos offense. 

[totdprods]

42 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

That's just it -- I wouldn't give up a ton for a guy who for the bulk of his career has actually been worse than either Skaggs or Heaney.    Consider this -- Boyd's in his age 28 season -- prior to this season he carried an ERA+ of 86, a 4.79 FIP over 460 innings...  How much weight should we be giving what he's done this year .vs those career numbers through age 27? -- particularly when he's not really changed much.

I get that he hasn't broken down, that there is potential payroll flexibility and the years of control but, if you're going to part with assets beyond $$ I'd rather they do so for someone that isn't having a pop up type season, or with a longer track record for success.   Using Skaggs as an example -- he gave the Angels an amazing 80+ innings before boom.   Boyd opened the year with .557 OPS allowed in his first 8,  in his last 7 that is up over .800 and those 7 games include starts .vs Baltimore and Miami where he dominated -- in his last three starts it's almost 900.  It's not like he's imploding -- not even close.  He's maintained his swinging strike rates and most of his predictors are in line, the only real spike is in HR/9, but it does make me wonder how much of that early success was the weather.  He also avoided facing Minnesota until last week, that AL Central is awfully weak offensively other than the Twins.

No idea what Detroit may be looking for but given the reality that they have the worst offense in MLB, I'm guessing they would want to cash Boyd in for bats -- particularly given the strength of their minor league pitching.  Mize, Manning, Faedo, Hill -- they have some nice arms.   I can see them valuing Barria as potentially being as good as Boyd had been previously, but not sure they would be enticed by Ward, or anyone currently floundering.  

Who knows?

Anyway, not trying to shit on Boyd so much as saying I'm not sold on him and I do think Detroit will try to cash in on him.

I was against Boyd at first too for the exact reasons you’ve mentioned but I’ve really warmed on him recently. I love the control, the salary, the floor and ceiling, the insurance he gives us in winning now, winning later, and adding more SP this winter. We match up well with Detroit and Eppler and Avila have had a lot of success dealing in the past. 

He is only 28 and did come with some strong minor league success and a bit of pedigree, so it’s not too difficult to imagine he’s turned something of a corner. Even if he’s less of a 3.00 ERA #1-2, I think a 3.50-4.00 ERA and #2-#3 production is a fairly reasonable outcome. If all it costs is Ward, Suarez, and a non-Top 15 guy or two from Burlington or IE it’d be a good deal. 

Think the Angels could also poach away a fresh relief arm from Detroit in the deal too.

Edited June 17, 2019 by totdprods

[krAbs]

Don't look now, but Calhoun sucks again. 1 hit in the last 5 games.

[Lou]

He's batting .176 in his last 15 games 

[krAbs]

3 hours ago, krAbs said:

Don't look now, but Calhoun sucks again. 1 hit in the last 5 games.

y'all're welcome.

[Lou]

krAbs went double-apostrophe on your asses! 

[krAbs]

34 minutes ago, Lou said:

krAbs went double-apostrophe on your asses! 

I mean, that is the only reasonable way of spelling that word. Its the rare double - contraction.

[AngelsLakersFan]

11 hours ago, Lou said:

It seems as if defensive metrics are discounted by many. If that's the case, why give them any credence when it comes to WAR? 

How much is a player's overall WAR influenced by his defensive numbers? 

While I believe that's a fair argument I think they tend to be more right then wrong, in other words I think we evaluate players more accurately when we use them. It is important to know the limitations, specifically that a full season of defensive stats are about as reliable as couple hundred plate appearances. 

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, RBM said:

I would be in favor of a deal that includes Brandon Marsh for Matthew Boyd. 

My only caveat about including Marsh in a deal now is that I feel we’d be selling a little low this year. With Adell, Upton, and Trout locked up, Marsh is absolutely expendable, but I think he’s a year away from posting some huge numbers in AA/AAA, realizing some more of his potential, developing some power, and being worth a lot more in trade talks than what he’d be worth now - he hasn’t quite reached that plateau yet. 

And for those not wanting to deal Marsh, I think one of Adams or Knowles will be right behind him before long. 

Now, if Marsh as he is currently wound up being worth 50% of the value in a Boyd deal, totally would include him.

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, RBM said:

Good point. I’m thinking he may be of value to a team like Detroit even if he’s two years away from MLB readiness. Maybe Barria and Marsh for Boyd and a Minor league reliever. 

He’d certainly be of interest to them - they’re a little thin on OF prospects. Personally, I think they have much more need for IF prospects and a LHP SP.

Ward makes a lot of sense - they’re stuck with Cabrera, Candelario is struggling and they’re thin in OF. Ward gives them a little depth at 3B, 1B, and LF, and they can drop him in right now for everyday ABs, in hopes he adjusts to a good hitter by time their pitching wave hits. Thaiss makes similar sense too, but I think Ward would be first discussed. Their RHP SP depth in the upper minors is nuts - but LHP is thin. One of Suarez or Sandoval would balance that wave of pitching nicely for them, and the addition of lefty Boyd (3.5 years of control) lessens the loss for the Halos. 

Edited June 18, 2019 by totdprods

[totdprods]

6 hours ago, RBM said:

Ward does make sense. I think Eppler would include him. But it gets tough with Suarez or Sandoval. I’d like to keep both of them. 

You think they would entertain the idea of Skaggs and Ward for Boyd and the right minor league arm. 

Detroit has no need for Skaggs.

I don’t see much difference between giving up Barria or one of Suarez/Sandoval.