Harper and Machado Contracts/Trout Extension

[Stradling]

It certainly seems as though those contracts were for a lot less than expected at the beginning of the off season.  I realize that Harper got $330 million but annually it is only $25 million a year.  Machado got $30 million a year and these guys are both a year or two younger than Trout.  

So a couple of questions or observations.  One am I the only one that thinks with how tumultuous free agency appears, it makes it more likely that Trout signs an extension just so he doesn’t have to go through all of that.  The market has been set by the only guys that are considered franchise players in his age group.  Also with the recent talk of a work stoppage when the current deal is up, do you think that also plays in to Trout’s possible decision to extend and get the guarantee?  My other thought on this is Trout’s extension I think tops out at $400 million and that probably only happens if it buys out the last two years of his current deal.  If Trout is offered $400 million now that Harper is getting $25 million a season and Machado is getting $30 million, there is virtually no way he turns it down.  I really am starting to believe that his deal will be closer to $370 million.  

[NJHalo]

Agree with you on this. Now that the dust is settling down, and the big names are all signed, there is no mystery to the dollar amounts and terms that we are dealing with. It is time for Arte and Trout to show their cards. 

If Arte wants to keep him, he knows what it's gonna cost.

If Mike wants to stay, he knows how much to expect. If he truly wants to go to Philly, speak up now, and you can go sooner than later. 

 

Edited March 1, 2019 by NJHalo

[stormngt]

32 minutes ago, Stradling said:

It certainly seems as though those contracts were for a lot less than expected at the beginning of the off season.  I realize that Harper got $330 million but annually it is only $25 million a year.  Machado got $30 million a year and these guys are both a year or two younger than Trout.  

So a couple of questions or observations.  One am I the only one that thinks with how tumultuous free agency appears, it makes it more likely that Trout signs an extension just so he doesn’t have to go through all of that.  The market has been set by the only guys that are considered franchise players in his age group.  Also with the recent talk of a work stoppage when the current deal is up, do you think that also plays in to Trout’s possible decision to extend and get the guarantee?  My other thought on this is Trout’s extension I think tops out at $400 million and that probably only happens if it buys out the last two years of his current deal.  If Trout is offered $400 million now that Harper is getting $25 million a season and Machado is getting $30 million, there is virtually no way he turns it down.  I really am starting to believe that his deal will be closer to $370 million.  

I have argued the same thing.  Only way he turns that down is if Trout doesnt want to stay regardless of the money.

[VariousCrap]

My prediction in that other thread is 10/375.  I could see them offer 12/400 if they want to buy out his last two years of his contract and have him signed until he is 40.

[VariousCrap]

1 minute ago, stormngt said:

I have argued the same thing.  Only way he turns that down is if Trout doesnt want to stay regardless of the money.

 

As Jeff Fletcher said yesterday on Twitter, Harper and Machado are further proof that the vast majority of players go where the biggest contract is at.  The Angels will rock Trout's world with contract extension and he'll sign it.

[wopphil]

The premium deals as far as AAV goes (Arenado/Machado) run through the players' age 35 seasons. The premium dollars for a position player are $30-32 per year (Cabrera, Machado, Arenado).

While it may not appear this way, I think beating these AAVs by 20-percent is huge. So that would put Trout at about $36-37 per. You'd have to give him a 9 year deal to get him through his age 35 season. Let's assume you add another year, or maybe even two, to maximize the odds he accepts. 

That puts a deal in the range of 9 to 11 years, with a total contract value of $324 on the low end, to $407 on the high end. Or a middle point of 10/$365.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

It certainly seems as though those contracts were for a lot less than expected at the beginning of the off season.  I realize that Harper got $330 million but annually it is only $25 million a year.  Machado got $30 million a year and these guys are both a year or two younger than Trout.  

So a couple of questions or observations.  One am I the only one that thinks with how tumultuous free agency appears, it makes it more likely that Trout signs an extension just so he doesn’t have to go through all of that.  The market has been set by the only guys that are considered franchise players in his age group.  Also with the recent talk of a work stoppage when the current deal is up, do you think that also plays in to Trout’s possible decision to extend and get the guarantee?  My other thought on this is Trout’s extension I think tops out at $400 million and that probably only happens if it buys out the last two years of his current deal.  If Trout is offered $400 million now that Harper is getting $25 million a season and Machado is getting $30 million, there is virtually no way he turns it down.  I really am starting to believe that his deal will be closer to $370 million.  

Mike Trout is a unicorn -- he doesn't have the makeup questions hanging over him that Machado has, he hasn't had the performance fluctuations or signs of decline that Harper has.   While I think you are right in saying that FA has become a hostile environment I think Trout may be the outlier.   All that being said -- the current CBA will still be in effect, he will be 29 years old and if he shows any slippage or injury issues the next two years it may impact his market.   The Angels have the least to lose in the sense that they already got a shit ton of plus value out of his "cheaper" years.  

The Angels could be really creative in how they go about this, they can go long, front load the contract and add several throwaway years at the back end to drive the AAV down.    If you structure a deal where Mike Trout is slated to make chump change in the final couple of seasons then does it matter if he goes AP after age 35?.   For instance  go 12/420 -- an AAV of 35   Redo the final two years of his current deal (essentially a 10 year extension).  Pay him 40 mil per the first 7 years of the contract -- that takes him through his age age 33 season having earned the 280 mil -- more than AP got, 20 mil less than Manny will get.  That leaves 140 mil to be paid out over the final 5 years -- if you go 35x3 then you have Mike Trout having earned 385 mil through his age 36 season with two years and 35 mil left to pay out in his age 37 and 38 seasons.    You can throw in option years, opt outs -- whatever...  

If he's willing to walk away from a deal like that then it likely means his decision isn't entirely about baseball, winning or money...

Edited March 1, 2019 by Inside Pitch

[floplag]

I thnik you are pretty much spot on, though i think Arenado might be more relevant than either Harper or Machado.
The only thing i would add is that i could see it being a but of a hybrid deal in that i think it would/should be a career deal so i could see it being maybe 10-12 in length, and the AAV will be north of either Machado or Arenado. 
Machado got 10 and 30 AAV
Harper got 12 at around 26 AAV
Arenado got 8 at 32 AAV
Put all that together i could see Trout getting something like 12 at 35 or 36 AAV that would hopefully but out his last 1-2 years and extend him thru for the rest of his career.  Ideally though yeah, i would like to see it top out at no more than 400 so maybe make it a pure extension of 10@35-40M. 

Regardless i think at this point the market is set, there is no reason to delay it unless he legit wants to test the open market or leave the Angels.  The years and dollar are pretty obvious at this point if he really wants to get it done. 

[floplag]

17 minutes ago, RBM said:

12 x 35 = 420. 

12 x 35 = 420. 

You are both saying the exactly same thing. You say “the only thing I would add” and what you “add” is exactly what he already stated. The bottom line is the Angels need to get this done now. 

That and the comment regarding Arenado being equally relevant, perhaps moreso.   Otherwise yes as i said he was pretty much spot on.

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, wopphil said:

The premium deals as far as AAV goes (Arenado/Machado) run through the players' age 35 seasons. The premium dollars for a position player are $30-32 per year (Cabrera, Machado, Arenado).

While it may not appear this way, I think beating these AAVs by 20-percent is huge. So that would put Trout at about $36-37 per. You'd have to give him a 9 year deal to get him through his age 35 season. Let's assume you add another year, or maybe even two, to maximize the odds he accepts. 

That puts a deal in the range of 9 to 11 years, with a total contract value of $324 on the low end, to $407 on the high end. Or a middle point of 10/$365.

Dont screw around with a short deal.  Offer him a contract he cant refuse!  If he turns it down trade him!

[Angelsjunky]

Similar thoughts as yours, @Stradling. Whereas at the beginning of the offseason I was thinking something like 10/$450M to 12/$500M, now I'm thinking 10/$350M - 12/$400M...that's a solid $100M less.

Trout is a special player, as we all know. He is not Arenado, Machado, or Harper - and he is not just a bit better than those guys. He is a 21st century Willie Mays. But around this age, Ken Griffey Jr looked that way too. Compare the three through age 26:

Trout: 64.7 fWAR (1st)

Griffey: 48.0 fWAR (8th)

Mays: 39.5 fWAR (25th)

Griffey stayed on pace and had his best two years at age 26-27, and was still very good through age 30 (2000):

Griffey: 73.9 (16th)

Mays: 73.4 (17th)

Age 31 and older, here is what they did:

Mays: 76.5 (4th)

Griffey: 3.8 (955th)

Those are two extremes, obviously, and chances are Trout will--at worst--split the difference. So a modest projection for Trout would be:

Age 27-30 (2019-22): 30 fWAR (average 7.5/year)

Age 31-40 (2023-32): 40 fWAR (average 4/year)

= 70 WAR total in 13 years, or 5.4 per year. Trout would end up with about 135 fWAR for his career, 7th all-time.

70 WAR is what I would call a moderate baseline of expected performance. With a bit of bad luck and earlier decline, it would be more like 50; in a more optimistic outlook it would be more like 90. 

I still think that $35M per year is a reasonable expectation. The difference now with looking at Harper's contract, is that Trout could get a longer extension--not just 10 total, including 19-20, but 10 added on--and there is a precedent for a reduction in yearly salary later on.

So if we're really talking 12 years, then maybe 7 at $35M and 5 at $30M is "reasonable": that's 12/$395M. Might as well offer 12/$400M. And if he insists on 12/$420M, or 12 x $35M, I think you still have to do it, because with Trout you're paying for more than simply expected WAR value. You're paying for not only to have the franchise's greatest player every finish his career as an Angel, but one of the 5 or 10 greatest players of all time to be an Angel for life. That's hard to put a price on.

You could also get fancy and offer $40M in 2019-22 (age 27-30), $35M in 2023-26 (age 31-34), $30M in 2027-29 (age 35-37), and $25M in 2030-32 (age 38-40), or 14/$425M.

But that would be the very most I would expect Trout to even ask for. So in summary:

Low estimate: 10/$350M (2019-28, through age 36)

High estimate: 12/$420M (2019-30, through age 38) or 14/$425M (2019-32, through age 40)

[Jay]

Regardless of what happens Trout is/will be a very wealthy man.

 

[floplag]

7 minutes ago, RBM said:

You said “The only thing I would add” and you added is what he already stated. 

whatever man, of all the dumb ass things to attack about a post... have a nice day if you can. 

[Chuck]

 

 

[Dtwncbad]

We can all make guesses at numbers. . .

But I will just say this.  Moreno said he would be the Yankees of the West.

There is no way on earth the Yankee ownership would let a Mike Trout leave the Yankees.

I get that Trout might want to be back East.  So what?  Pay him to not want to be there.

Moreno needs to get this done, and there is no better time than now considering the two deals that just happened.

It's on Moreno.

 

[Stradling]

“Attack”

[Dtwncbad]

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

“Attack”

Is that directed at me?

No idea what that means if it is.

There is not a stitch of aggression in what I wrote, just my personal observation that Mike Trout is not Bernie Williams or Robinson Cano.

He is Ted Williams or Babe Ruth.

So I would personally expect an owner to do everything in ther power to not let that player change uniforms.

That's all.

[floplag]

40 minutes ago, RBM said:

Not attacking at all. You are not a victim here. I was only letting you know your reply was a reiteration and not a new take. It’s probably because you did not read and or comprehend the post you replied to. 

lol.  yeah, victim.... its funny i cant even agree with the patron saints without people bitching about how i do it.  Meh, just another parrot clone. 

[Stradling]

10 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Is that directed at me?

No idea what that means if it is.

There is not a stitch of aggression in what I wrote, just my personal observation that Mike Trout is not Bernie Williams or Robinson Cano.

He is Ted Williams or Babe Ruth.

So I would personally expect an owner to do everything in ther power to not let that player change uniforms.

That's all.

Nope

[Dtwncbad]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Nope

I am caught up now.  Tough to stay in context when you are distracted by this stupid thing called work.

[Second Base]

I really don't see Trout's comments yesterday/today as a big deal.  So he's not wanting to negotiate right now, so what?  As the the extension and signing.....if we're counting beyond his age 29 season, if figure he's going to get 10 years and 400 million.  Whether that's from the Angels or not will have absolutely NOTHING to do with money, because Arte will offer as much as anyone out there.

The only reason Trout would leave the Angels is if they aren't winning, or if he wants to be on the East Coast.  That's it.  One of those the Angels can control, the other they can't. 

[nate]

6 hours ago, Stradling said:

It certainly seems as though those contracts were for a lot less than expected at the beginning of the off season.  I realize that Harper got $330 million but annually it is only $25 million a year.  Machado got $30 million a year and these guys are both a year or two younger than Trout.  

So a couple of questions or observations.  One am I the only one that thinks with how tumultuous free agency appears, it makes it more likely that Trout signs an extension just so he doesn’t have to go through all of that.  The market has been set by the only guys that are considered franchise players in his age group.  Also with the recent talk of a work stoppage when the current deal is up, do you think that also plays in to Trout’s possible decision to extend and get the guarantee?  My other thought on this is Trout’s extension I think tops out at $400 million and that probably only happens if it buys out the last two years of his current deal.  If Trout is offered $400 million now that Harper is getting $25 million a season and Machado is getting $30 million, there is virtually no way he turns it down.  I really am starting to believe that his deal will be closer to $370 million.  

The former invalidates the latter.  If Trout wants to leave it won't be for money so the tumult of FA won't batter.

[AngelsLakersFan]

4 hours ago, RBM said:

Not attacking at all. You are not a victim here. I was only letting you know your reply was a reiteration and not a new take. It’s probably because you did not read and or comprehend the post you replied to. 

We really need a 'savage' reaction. 

[CaliAngel]

Does anyone think, much like Weaver, that Trout doesn't care about the money and just wants to win and play in a place that he loves?

[Dtwncbad]

3 hours ago, CaliAngel said:

Does anyone think, much like Weaver, that Trout doesn't care about the money and just wants to win and play in a place that he loves?

OMG I can't believe people are still buying this Weaver storyline when he got an extension deal similar to Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander.

He did not take a dime in discount.

Jesus.