Kole's 2018 was a ton of bad luck

[floplag]

2 hours ago, JarsOfClay said:

He did keep going opposite field in spring training and he was killing the ball. Then the season started and he pulled everything.

The fact that he couldn't figure it out during the season makes me believe he is done as a major leaguer.

I think hes had time to figure it out and i hope he comes back strong, if he doesnt, then perhaps you are right but its highly unusual for a player to go that far south that fast barring something physical. 

They shifted on him nearly twice as much, he didnt anticipate that or adjust to it well.. something way tooo many players are doing today.   The shift is here to stay, if we can adjust pitch to pitch as players we need to learn to adjust to these things. 

I was always taught to take what i was given as a hitter, if they pitch you outside go the other way, inside pull, use all fields... we all know the cliches.  I made the effort to go the other way, to bunt, to do all those things to keep the defense honest... one would think professionals could figure that out.   For whatever reason, most dont seem to.

[hangin n wangin]

At this point, I'm just waiting for Kole's contract to expire. 

He had some very respectable years with us, but the past two years have been filled with inconsistency. I'm over it. Hope he does well, but I have no problem reducing his playing time if he pulls the same shit he did last year for an extended period of time.

 

[Jeff Fletcher]

You guys should read this again

http://www.ocregister.com/how-the-angels-kole-calhoun-turned-his-season-around

The shift only hurts you if you hit ground balls. He hit a lot more ground balls with his April-May swing than after.

And this.

http://www.ocregister.com/angels-kole-calhoun-slumping-or-is-it-more-like-regressing

What happened in September was mostly about more strikeouts, not the shift. He was probably swinging at bad pitches too much, which is one of those phases guys go through especially when slumping  

 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jeff Fletcher

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

You guys should read this again

http://www.ocregister.com/how-the-angels-kole-calhoun-turned-his-season-around

The shift only hurts you if you hit ground balls. He hit a lot more ground balls with his April-May swing than after.

 

It isnt for ground balls only.  So the 2B playing in shallow RF where a line drive would normally hit the ground isnt a factor? A line drive at the SS playing on the second base side of the bag, that's not a factor?

[VariousCrap]

I hope Kole spent all off-season practicing bunting to the left side of the field.  With his decent speed, he'd get on base every time.  Bunt to the left side of the field every time they shift on him and they will stop shifting.

Edited February 1, 2019 by VariousCrap

[Docwaukee]

He was 4/96 on pulled ground balls last year for an .052 avg.  lowest of his career.  

On pulled line drives he was 26/39 for a .667 avg.  Right at his career avg.  

On pulled fly balls he was 8/20 for a .471 avg.  a little below his career avg. 

similar stats to CF. 

so he essentially did lose a lot of his production from not getting ground ball hits.  plus the increased K rate.  

 

[Angel Oracle]

I'd gladly take a .725 OPS and his solid RF defense in 2019.

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

It isnt for ground balls only.  So the 2B playing in shallow RF where a line drive would normally hit the ground isnt a factor? A line drive at the SS playing on the second base side of the bag, that's not a factor?

Minimal

[AngelsLakersFan]

I'd be interested in some comparable players who went through slumps as bad as his and managed to turn it around and move past it. Few players have ever reached the depths of his awfulness so it may be difficult. Meanwhile my recollection of 'Comeback player of the year' winners is littered with guys who were on their way out of baseball shortly.

I'd like to think that his end of the season performance was simply just a typical 'slump' but with everything that went on in that season it really only makes sense to believe that pitcher finally made adjustments to his new approach and he was having a lot of trouble handling them.

[Dtwncbad]

9 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Minimal

Come on Jeff don't be stubborn.  A left handed pull hitter with power is stll going to get normally 3 or 4 times as many singles as homers and they come on grounders and line drives and bloopers.  The shift takes away huge chunks of ALL of those when they pull the ball and there is a crowd of fielders waiting for the ball instead of a hole.

[Jeff Fletcher]

Before he went on the DL/changed his swing

Pull %: 42.8. GB%: 55.7. BABIP: .185

After he came back

Pull %: 42.5. GB: 36.5. BAPIP: .274 (This number doesn't include his 18 HRs, by the way)

 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jeff Fletcher

[Dtwncbad]

2 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Before he went on the DL/changed his swing

Pull %: 42.8. GB%: 55.7. BABIP: .185

After he came back

Pull %: 42.5. GB: 36.5. BAPIP: .274

 

Do you really believe this data means the shift isn't significantly effective against a pulled line drive or blooper even though there is an extra fielder where the ball goes?

 

[Pancake Bear]

Aaron Judge’s breakout season involved a swing change. He struggled late in the year and made adjustments in the offseason. Regression isn’t unusual when you’re changing things up. It’s too early to count him out as a solid performer. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Do you really believe this data means the shift isn't significantly effective against a pulled line drive or blooper even though there is an extra fielder where the ball goes?

 

OK, Calhoun 1.0 hit .184 against the shift last year, and Calhoun 2.0 hit .268 (again, not including the HRs)

If he was still pulling the ball just as much, why do you think there was a difference?

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, Jeff Fletcher said:

OK, Calhoun 1.0 hit .184 against the shift last year, and Calhoun 2.0 hit .268 (again, not including the HRs)

If he was still pulling the ball just as much, why do you think there was a difference?

Uh because he hit better and got more hits.  But he lost hits to the shift (mostly grounders but also line drives and bloopers because, duh, there are more fielders where he is hitting the ball) and his overall production against the shift sucks.

Calhoun is maybe the worst bet you can make to be successful against the shift in 2019.  If he doesn't hit the ball the other way regularly, he is going to lose his job.

You keep pointing to this 2.0 version.  That lasted a short period of time.  The job is for 7 months, not 2.

[Slegnaac]

14 hours ago, Lou said:

Kole was very, Very lucky last year.

 

lucky he had a job.

You left out a Very, and the most important one too!

[Dtwncbad]

Look the bottom line is the shift owns Calhoun.  His overall numbers against the shift support that.

It's his move to adjust, and if anyone is relying on him continuing to be a dead pull hitter but just just ripping line drives harder and more often to beat the shift they are fooling themselves.

[Make Angels Great Again]

3 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Look the bottom line is the shift owns Calhoun.  His overall numbers against the shift support that.

It's his move to adjust, and if anyone is relying on him continuing to be a dead pull hitter but just just ripping line drives harder and more often to beat the shift they are fooling themselves.

 

He did adjust, his numbers against the shift improved greatly despite pulling the ball the same amount.

His September slump is the only wrinkle here, which is why it's a bit harder to predict whether he'll be good or terrible in 2019.

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

 Uh because he hit better and got more hits.  But he lost hits to the shift (mostly grounders but also line drives and bloopers because, duh, there are more fielders where he is hitting the ball) and his overall production against the shift sucks.

Calhoun is maybe the worst bet you can make to be successful against the shift in 2019.  If he doesn't hit the ball the other way regularly, he is going to lose his job.

You keep pointing to this 2.0 version.  That lasted a short period of time.  The job is for 7 months, not 2.

So let me get this straight... I asked what he did that made him better, and you said "he hit better and got more hits."

My points are these, and only these...

1. Calhoun results were bad in the first half because of the quality of his contact, not the direction of it. Quality contact (line drives and fly balls) works, shift or not. Ground balls don't work, and they especially don't work against the shift.

2. There was a tangible difference in his swing and approach pre- and post-DL. That can't be ignored the way you can ignore the way a guy who doesn't change his swing gets a lot of hits for two weeks and then slumps for two weeks. 

 

[Dtwncbad]

"OK Kole, let's make more adjustments here to beat the shift.  Let's focus on more line drives and try to yank more doubles down the line.  Maybe hit the ball like extra super super hard so it sneaks right between all these guys.  Also maybe run twice as fast and beat out more plays at first.  And oh yeah, just hit like 35 homers because they can't catch those.  Is that a plan then?"

This is Kole Calhoun guys, not Barry Bonds. I love Kole but let's get real.

He needs to use the whole field or he will end up using none of it from the bench.

[Jeff Fletcher]

Kole Calhoun has a career .293 average on balls in play against the shift, by the way.

That covers 1,001 balls in play.

He has a career .319 average when he pulls the ball. That includes HRs and balls to RF when he's not shifted.

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jeff Fletcher

[Dtwncbad]

3 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

So let me get this straight... I asked what he did that made him better, and you said "he hit better and got more hits."

My points are these, and only these...

1. Calhoun results were bad in the first half because of the quality of his contact, not the direction of it. Quality contact (line drives and fly balls) works, shift or not. Ground balls don't work, and they especially don't work against the shift.

2. There was a tangible difference in his swing and approach pre- and post-DL. That can't be ignored the way you can ignore the way a guy who doesn't change his swing gets a lot of hits for two weeks and then slumps for two weeks. 

 

Jeff you miss the point, respectfully.  What is the difference between Kole "2.0" and then him stinking again?

Probably nothing much.  Streaks.

MY point is against the shift, if you use stubbornly use half the field, when all the streaks are over. . .you stunk overall (unless you are Barry Bonds).

Kole just isnt the kind of player that will end up with acceptable overall numbers against the shift.

Or at least the last 2 years of data (more reliable than a little slice of "2.0") says this is a rational conclusion.

But, but, but. . .what about that little sample of 2.0??

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Jeff you miss the point, respectfully.  What is the difference between Kole "2.0" and then him stinking again?

Probably nothing much.  Streaks.

MY point is against the shift, if you use stubbornly use half the field, when all the streaks are over. . .you stunk overall (unless you are Barry Bonds).

Kole just isnt the kind of player that will end up with acceptable overall numbers against the shift.

Or at least the last 2 years of data (more reliable than a little slice of "2.0") says this is a rational conclusion.

But, but, but. . .what about that little sample of 2.0??

 

5 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Kole Calhoun has a career .293 average on balls in play against the shift, by the way.

That covers 1,001 balls in play.

He has a career .319 average when he pulls the ball. That includes HRs and balls to RF when he's not shifted.

 

[Dtwncbad]

3 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Kole Calhoun has a career .293 average on balls in play against the shift, by the way.

That covers 1,001 balls in play.

He has a career .319 average when he pulls the ball. That includes HRs and balls to RF when he's not shifted.

Stats when there is no shift not relevant here Jeff.

Care to list his average against shift by year sequentially?

Maybe the Angels should start Reggie Jackson in RF?  Oh that is silly his skill set as he is now older is different.

To be effective offensively as you get older maybe you need to change a bit?

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

30 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Uh because he hit better and got more hits.  But he lost hits to the shift (mostly grounders but also line drives and bloopers because, duh, there are more fielders where he is hitting the ball) and his overall production against the shift sucks.

Calhoun is maybe the worst bet you can make to be successful against the shift in 2019.  If he doesn't hit the ball the other way regularly, he is going to lose his job.

You keep pointing to this 2.0 version.  That lasted a short period of time.  The job is for 7 months, not 2.

His adjustment to the shift was clearly real. I don't see how the shift could simultaneously be the source of his problem and not connected to his mid season resurgence.