Kole's 2018 was a ton of bad luck

[Dtwncbad]

5 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

His adjustment to the shit was clearly real. I don't see how the shift could simultaneously be the source of his problem and not connected to his mid season resurgence. 

I didnt ever deny he actually hit better when he came back.  When you hit better your numbers are better.

My point, and maybe this is my communication failure, is that if you use half the field you have such a smaller margin of error that you will be far more vulnerable to deeper slumps.

He is not an elite hitter to be able to survive deep slumps.

It is foolish to hope that Kole will be so perfectly dialed in over a whole season to end up with good numbers if he doesnt use the whole field.

I just think it is a horrible bet for Kole to have a good year he is going to remain a dead pull hitter against the shift day in and day out.

And the data over 2 years supports this.

Edited February 1, 2019 by Dtwncbad

[Dtwncbad]

And nobody likes Kole more than me.  I love the guy.

I want him to be successful!

[Jeff Fletcher]

27 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Stats when there is no shift not relevant here Jeff.

Care to list his average against shift by year sequentially?

Maybe the Angels should start Reggie Jackson in RF?  Oh that is silly his skill set as he is now older is different.

To be effective offensively as you get older maybe you need to change a bit?

 

Career: vs the shift .293, no shift .300. (Also, his average when going the other way is .293, compared to .319 when he pulls the ball, probably because he's not hitting it as hard the other way.)

Since 2014, vs the shift: .267, .344, .317, .291, .236

Obviously, every hitter would be better if he had no tendencies at all and sprayed the ball in a perfectly even pattern around the field. Maybe the Angels should tell Calhoun: "Please become Tony Gwynn."

I think if he tried to change his entire swing to spray the ball everywhere, he'd lose a lot in the process. You can't just change into an entirely different hitter when you're 30. Instead, if he simply does what he did last year -- hit the ball hard -- he can perform at his best level.

He had an .800 OPS with his new swing last year. If he can pull a .750 this year, the Angels would take that.

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jeff Fletcher

[WeatherWonk]

To simply say that Kole needs to be going opposite field more, ignores the fact that the opponent is pitching him inside so much. They want to increase the odds dramatically that he hits into the shift. It's not easy hitting  inside pitches to the opposite field, unless you are Tony Gwynn or Rod Carew or Wade Boggs.

He probably should practice bunting towards the left side. Lots of hitters should. Time to make adjustments to the shift.

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Career: vs the shift .293, no shift .300

Since 2014, vs the shift: .267, .344, .317, .291, .236

Obviously, every hitter would be better if he had no tendencies at all and sprayed the ball in a perfectly even pattern around the field. Maybe the Angels should tell Calhoun: "Please become Tony Gwynn."

I think if he tried to change his entire swing to spray the ball everywhere, he'd lose a lot in the process. You can't just change into an entirely different hitter when you're 30. Instead, if he simply does what he did last year -- hit the ball hard -- he can perform at his best level.

He had an .800 OPS with his new swing last year. If he can pull a .750 this year, the Angels would take that.

Nobody said change your entire swing.  Nobody.

How about if he just had a little more of a gap-to-gap approach instead of a dead pull approach?

Do you really not think that makes more sense, especially when Kole at his best is not really a true power hitter?

When you hit the ball 425 feet the shift is entirely irrelevant right?  So the less of a true power hitter you are the more important it is to not be using one slice of the filed.

Jeff, let me agree with your fear that changing a guys swing is scary.  And I already said I have not advocated changing his entire swing (I am talking about approach and timing--not the same thing) but let me say this. . .

Kole doesn't have much choice at this point in his career.

A repeat of last season and he is possibly out of baseball.

 

 

[Dtwncbad]

Baseball reference says basically all of Kole's success was hitting the ball up the middle.

Pull .558 OPS

Oppo .491 OPS

Up Middle 1.052 OPS

So it APPEARS that his 2.0 success was very likely him hitting the ball up the middle (with his "fixed" swing) and not from pulling smoking line drives through the shift.

 

 

[Pancake Bear]

4 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Baseball reference says basically all of Kole's success was hitting the ball up the middle.

Pull .558 OPS

Oppo .491 OPS

Up Middle 1.052 OPS

So it APPEARS that his 2.0 success was very likely him hitting the ball up the middle (with his "fixed" swing) and not from pulling smoking line drives through the shift.

 

 

Dude, give up when you’re behind. You got owned by the data yet you repeatedly insist you’re right anyway AND insist the data favors you.

Don’t be like a pigeon playing chess. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Baseball reference says basically all of Kole's success was hitting the ball up the middle.

Pull .558 OPS

Oppo .491 OPS

Up Middle 1.052 OPS

So it APPEARS that his 2.0 success was very likely him hitting the ball up the middle (with his "fixed" swing) and not from pulling smoking line drives through the shift.

 

 

Weird that his worst would be oppo, when there are the fewest fielders there. 

My point is that he needs to hit the ball hard. Period.

Those hard hit balls are mostly going to be pulled and up the middle. Not spraying the ball to left field.

[Pancake Bear]

And, btw, the data *doesn’t* say Kole will undoubtedly be productive in 2019, it simply says there’s good reason to question the slump as much if not more than the retooled swing (regression and all). No one knows how he’ll do this season, but writing him off now is silliness. 

[VariousCrap]

@Jeff Fletcher, have you every asked the Angels or Kole why he doesn't bunt to the left side of the field to get hits when they are shifting on him?

 

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, Sean-Regan said:

Dude, give up when you’re behind. You got owned by the data yet you repeatedly insist you’re right anyway AND insist the data favors you.

Don’t be like a pigeon playing chess. 

Sorry you see it that way.

Calhoun primarily sucked last year, is in a three year slide, had one contained resurgance where it sure looks like his success was doing what I am advocating him do (not be a dead pull hitter against the shift), while the argument against me is basically it is insane to change his while swing which I never suggested.

OK, if that is getting owned, I guess I was owned.

[Dtwncbad]

13 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Weird that his worst would be oppo, when there are the fewest fielders there. 

My point is that he needs to hit the ball hard. Period.

Those hard hit balls are mostly going to be pulled and up the middle. Not spraying the ball to left field.

Nobody would disagree.  Not out of line with my point.  The shift works against Kole overall and his path to being a productive hitter absolutely is tied to the amount of the field he uses.

If he doesn't hit the ball hard he will lose his job.  If he doesn't use more of the field than just pulling the ball he will lose his job.

The good news is the data you showed and the data I show most likely mean he (and anyone working with him) already know this.

Everything I have said is really rooted in pulling for him.  I am just afraid of the downside since it was so real for so long and seemed to return over the last month of the season.

And I would be also more optimistic if he was 25 not 31.

Edited February 1, 2019 by Dtwncbad

[hangin n wangin]

The moment Kole goes on a hot streak, I would be trying my absolute best to try to trade him and get at least some sort of value for him. He's not going to make us contenders and he doesn't have a future in an Angel uniform. It was a nice run for him and he's a good guy, but if you can get some young talent in return for him if he's playing well, I'm all over that.

 

[JarsOfClay]

16 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Dude, give up when you’re behind. You got owned by the data yet you repeatedly insist you’re right anyway AND insist the data favors you.

Don’t be like a pigeon playing chess. 

This is silly. The data says he was terrible for 6 months and good for one month, yet you insist the one month was real and the 6 months were outliers.

[Pancake Bear]

23 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Sorry you see it that way.

Calhoun primarily sucked last year, is in a three year slide, had one contained resurgance where it sure looks like his success was doing what I am advocating him do (not be a dead pull hitter against the shift), while the argument against me is basically it is insane to change his while swing which I never suggested.

OK, if that is getting owned, I guess I was owned.

 

10 minutes ago, JarsOfClay said:

This is silly. The data says he was terrible for 6 months and good for one month, yet you insist the one month was real and the 6 months were outliers.

It’s like both of you didn’t actually read anything Fletcher posted (should I assume it’s over your collective heads?). Actual data showing the shift isn’t the problem. Doc’s data showing Kole actually got *better* this year on his peripherals overall. Your data? Results. That’s it. That’s all you’ve got. And the results you’re giving are cherry-picked to boot.

The data suggests his batting change is legit (depending on adjustments, but the end of the year doesn’t show anything meaningful there), the shift isn’t a meaningful issue, and that his struggles have been as much a result of bad luck and (late in the year) regression than any major decline. 

You guys are the ones holding on to an implausible and untenable position: Namely, that Kole is done. The data is at best inconclusive for your position, and the better data gives good reason to believe Kole will be an average(ish) bat with ++ defense in RF. 

[Dtwncbad]

27 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

 

It’s like both of you didn’t actually read anything Fletcher posted (should I assume it’s over your collective heads?). Actual data showing the shift isn’t the problem. Doc’s data showing Kole actually got *better* this year on his peripherals overall. Your data? Results. That’s it. That’s all you’ve got. And the results you’re giving are cherry-picked to boot.

The data suggests his batting change is legit (depending on adjustments, but the end of the year doesn’t show anything meaningful there), the shift isn’t a meaningful issue, and that his struggles have been as much a result of bad luck and (late in the year) regression than any major decline. 

You guys are the ones holding on to an implausible and untenable position: Namely, that Kole is done. The data is at best inconclusive for your position, and the better data gives good reason to believe Kole will be an average(ish) bat with ++ defense in RF. 

Just wondering if your rose colored glasses polarized?

[Pancake Bear]

1 minute ago, Dtwncbad said:

Just wondering if your rose colored glasses polarized?

No - going into this thread, I assumed the shift was a major part of Kole’s problems. I actually read the data. 

Go back, reread all of Doc and Fletch’s posts in this thread until you understand the information. If I don’t see you again, it was fun. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

55 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

@Jeff Fletcher, have you every asked the Angels or Kole why he doesn't bunt to the left side of the field to get hits when they are shifting on him?

 

Yes. They all say it’s not that easy. 

[ettin]

42 minutes ago, JarsOfClay said:

This is silly. The data says he was terrible for 6 months and good for one month, yet you insist the one month was real and the 6 months were outliers.

So is it silly to insist five years were real and one was an outlier?

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

Nobody would disagree.  Not out of line with my point.  The shift works against Kole overall and his path to being a productive hitter absolutely is tied to the amount of the field he uses.

This is where I disagree with you. 

Would Calhoun be a better hitter if he used the whole field? Obviously every hitter would get more hits if the defense had to cover every square inch of the field equally. Actually, if he could just hit it over the fence about 50 times, that would be best.

But that’s comparing him to some fantasy hitter that he isn’t.

It’s like saying the way for me to make more money as a sports writer is to become a lawyer. Unfortunately, as far as my wife is concerned, I can’t do that. I am not trained to be a lawyer. All I can do is make the most of who I am.

So all we can do is compare Calhoun to what Calhoun has shown he can be when he’s good, and in that case the primary factor is not all how much he pulls the ball.

He pulls it when he’s good. He pulls it when he’s bad. 

The difference is how he hits it, not where he hits it. 

I hope this is clear.

 

Edited February 2, 2019 by Jeff Fletcher

[tdawg87]

It won't be.

[Make Angels Great Again]

Kole becoming an up the middle guy ala Howie Kendrick would require him to become a totally different hitter.

That's not happening.

[Hufflepuff]

19 hours ago, Dochalo said:

absolutely.  

he was shifted on 73.0% of the time last year.  44.8% and 39.9% in he previous two years.  

That would explain the decrease in BABIP. I wonder if an increase in his launch angle coupled with a continued hard hit % would be beneficial. Take advantage of that RF fence being lowered. Bottom line: I agree, ground balls into the shift are no bueno, and he needs to continue to just focus on that hard hit%

[JarsOfClay]

1 hour ago, ettin said:

So is it silly to insist five years were real and one was an outlier?

Yes, because he's gotten worse as they have started shifting more on him the last couple years.  It wasn't just last year, he was awful in 2017 too.

He's been exposed by the shift just like Pujols, Texeiera etc, if those guys couldnt make the adjustment, I doubt Calhoun can.

[ettin]

1 minute ago, JarsOfClay said:

Yes, because he's gotten worse as they have started shifting more on him the last couple years.  It wasn't just last year, he was awful in 2017 too.

He's been exposed by the shift just like Pujols, Texeiera etc, if those guys couldnt make the adjustment, I doubt Calhoun can.

Nothing is going to move you off of your opinion, that is the only thing that is clear, here.

Calhoun has been a productive Major League player for five of the last seasons. He has one off year and people take a giant sh*t on him even when some of his peripherals showed it was his best season to-date.

Continue to ignore facts at your own peril.